It’s on: August 21

The Prime Minister has surprised nobody by confirming this morning that Australia has entered its first winter election campaign since 1987. The final remaining question – whether the date would be August 21 or 28 – has been resolved in favour of the former, meaning the issue of the writs and consequent closure of enrolments will occur on Monday, to Labor’s disadvantage (John Howard strikes from the grave). Psephos in comments identifies an auspicious historical precedent on this date for Labor. Appropriately, Antony Green’s election guide has opened for business this morning, and an impressive effort from Ben Raue at The Tally Room has been going for a while. My own effort will follow over the coming week.

Some recent happenings on the candidate selection front:

• Fairfax reports there have been talks between Tony Abbott and Mal Brough about the latter returning to politics, with Brough indicating he would be interested in his home electorate of Fisher on the Sunshine Coast. The seat is held by underachieving long-term member Peter Slipper, who denies having been tapped on the shoulder.

• Another Liberal National Party candidate has bitten the dust, this time in Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith. Emma Chalmers of The Courier-Mail reports a belief in the LNP camp that Rudd might quit after all led it to dump John Humphreys, an economist and one-time principal of the libertarian Liberal Democratic Party, so it could lock in a higher profile candidate with the potential to win the seat. The report goes so far as to nominate potential successors to Rudd: “Brisbane City Council Labor leader Shayne Sutton, lawyer Russell Thirgood and former state party treasurer Damian Power, who are all from Mr Rudd’s faction”.

• AAP reports Belinda Neal is refusing to say whether she will contest her seat of Robertson as an independent. Speculation has been boosted by the fact that she made the effort to advertise for a vacant media officer position on the weekend.

• The Liberals finally got around to choosing a candidate for the famously crucial western Sydney seat of Lindsay on Monday, with 33-year-old marketing manager Fiona Scott winning the preselection vote over 55-year-old school teacher Margaret Grand by 31 votes to seven. The Daily Telegraph reports Scott recommended herself to the party as she was “a safe candidate“ who “wouldn’t get in the way” of a backlash against the government on asylum seekers.

• The Liberals will today preselect candidates for other Sydney seats including winnable Greenway, which according to the Blacktown Sun looms as a contest between “Jayme Diaz, 34, and small business operator Venus Priest, 40”.

• Labor’s member for the highly endangered Queensland seat of Flynn, Chris Trevor, has confirmed he will contest the election after suggestions he was sufficiently alienated by Kevin Rudd’s demise to call it a day. Trevor took the opportunity of his announcement to condemn the “disgraceful” manner of Rudd’s treatment by “various factional bosses”.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian says Julia Gillard was prompted to challenge for the leadership by “polling in marginal seats in western Sydney and Queensland that showed she and the Liberal leader were ahead of the then prime minister in the key Labor-held seat of Lindsay in Sydney’s west and she was only six percentage points behind in Rudd’s home state of Queensland as preferred Labor leader”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

668 comments on “It’s on: August 21”

Comments Page 13 of 14
1 … 12 13 14

  1. Presumably automatic enrolment would cause inner-city areas to get more enrolments and thus a greater proportion of the seats.

  11. [Presumably automatic enrolment would cause inner-city areas to get more enrolments and thus a greater proportion of the seats.]
    I thought redistributions were based on the POPULATION, not on enrolled voters?

    Wasn’t there a High Court case that said it had to be based on population?

  12. gloryconsequence @ 564

    [Whether Oakes had a real source or not, it’s pretty clear that his “breakthrough” question and subsequent over-hype by the media (mainly Channel 9, let’s face it) is for the 9 News ads pumping up Oakes as the best political journo ever.]

    Spot on – the entire issue of the Rudd/Gillard ‘agreement’ was manufactured from next to nothing (and the 3 parties to the conversation have subsequently denied leaking the details, so it is 2nd hand gossip from some other ‘source’) solely to promote Oakes as the journo-of-record, the doyen of current affairs reporters.

    In reality, Oakes is near irrelevant in today’s fast paced 24/7 news cycle, a dinosaur bypassed by technology and a younger generation of Internet-savvy reporters. Oakes is without connection in 2010 and increasingly without credibility, reduced to the sniffing around in garbage cans for scraps of tawdry gossip. His quaint little clipboard of questions and his one on one, face to face, without a table style of interviewing went out of fashion with straw hats and buckle down shoes …. and it looks like Laurie has gone the same way.

    An irrelevant and archaic fossil remnant of another era, nothing more.

  14. [Isn’t that the galaxy poll from a few days ago? Same number!]

    No – it was promoed as the first poll out after the election announcement.

  18. Frank there are people on that liberal site that do not approve of julia because she was not born here.

    Well the poor things they have now been told neither was tone.

    so funny really

  19. [Just saw two people in Abbott’s seat interviewed on SBS — both had american accents. Odd I must say.]

    are they republicans.

    well one lady over at tone site will be not happy tone

    she doesnt like Julia because she was NOT born here,.

    so how is she going to like these two you mention.

  20. The Big Ship@612

    gloryconsequence @ 564

    Whether Oakes had a real source or not, it’s pretty clear that his “breakthrough” question and subsequent over-hype by the media (mainly Channel 9, let’s face it) is for the 9 News ads pumping up Oakes as the best political journo ever.

    Spot on – the entire issue of the Rudd/Gillard ‘agreement’ was manufactured from next to nothing (and the 3 parties to the conversation have subsequently denied leaking the details, so it is 2nd hand gossip from some other ’source’) solely to promote Oakes as the journo-of-record, the doyen of current affairs reporters.

    In reality, Oakes is near irrelevant in today’s fast paced 24/7 news cycle, a dinosaur bypassed by technology and a younger generation of Internet-savvy reporters. Oakes is without connection in 2010 and increasingly without credibility, reduced to the sniffing around in garbage cans for scraps of tawdry gossip. His quaint little clipboard of questions and his one on one, face to face, without a table style of interviewing went out of fashion with straw hats and buckle down shoes …. and it looks like Laurie has gone the same way.

    An irrelevant and archaic fossil remnant of another era, nothing more.

    Why does Oakes remind me of Morocco Mole ? 🙂

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkaUfa5Z4Do 

  21. Good that the poll which usually favours the Libs most is still 52-48 (despite the claims that the polss have tightened over the past week or so].

  22. When would the poll have been conducted? Doesn’t Labor usually poll worse in midweek polling compared to weekend polling?

  23. 611

    The distribution of seats between states is based on population (as the Constitution requires (and would probably require a majority of the vote in every state to change)) but the distribution of seats within states is based entirely on enrolment as are the state redistributions (except where there is rural waiting).

  24. Green primaries will be interesting too. They had gone up to 14% in the last Galaxy. If that has dropped and the 2PP numbers are the same, it would mean those have come back to Labor.

  25. Dont the polls normally improve for an incumbent government during a campaign? IF so is this case, 52-48 is excellent for Labor

  26. [52-48

    55-32 PPM]

    well that tells a lot really why would you vote for some one you do not like.

    I did hear once that howard had a low rating re pm but cannot remember what keatings was at that stage i think it was also low.

    but 55 come on thas a good start

  28. [Posted Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 6:46 pm | Permalink
    Green primaries will be interesting too. They had gone up to 14% in the last Galaxy. If that has dropped and the 2PP numbers are the same, it would mean those have come back to Lab]

    i truly think as more peoples see the hidden one the green votes will come back to labor. I think Julia will also announce some nice green policies for them.

  29. I reckon the election is over already. 52-48 give or take a point is where we’ll end up .

    Abbott is a polarising fugure and those supporting him will stick now. Those opposed won’t. See Possums analyses for the low level of undecideds.

    With that result Labor will win 83-88 seats.

    Any protest against Gillard’s process of ascension is likely to be in the Senate vote, so the Greens will likely be the big winners with BOP credentials post July 1 next year. Just might scare the Libs to deal on CC before then.

    Abbott will be lauded as a bit of a hero for keeping the Libs competitive. Whether that saves his arse in two years is another matter.

    In the meantime the UST between Abbott and Gillard will be a popular national distraction.

  30. Benji, no. I think the generally held view is that the polling follows the trend prior to the election being called. A look at the past few elections showed there was not necessarily a pro-government swing during a campaign.

  33. [Abbott will be lauded as a bit of a hero for keeping the Libs competitive. Whether that saves his arse in two years is another matter.]
    If Abbott loses the election he is gone. The Liberals have an automatic spill after all election loses, Hockey would be the favourite to take over with Turnbull Shadow Treasurer.

  36. Ahh! But we have a Plan!

    Of all the expressions that emerge in australian political campaigns the *We have a Plan* is a perennial of long pedigree.

    I recall the expression from elections during my youth, as a young adult and now in middle age. A recent image is that of costello, smirking and making the claim that *We have a Plan* with the obligatory smirk firmly in place.

    Well tonight on sydney ch9 news, abbott was first to use the expression in the current election along with other nonsense.

    Does anyone think the expression resonates to people other than the brain dead or is it just so much verbal garbage to be endured or *amused* with ?

  37. AFtr the Libs spill — I think Morrison will come out with one of the top two jobs — he has been the only cut-through front bencher.

    Glen — what say you?

  39. I would note write Tone off yet, Julia could be exposed as an axe murdering, vampire, zombie and he may win by a seat or two.

    But really he is political road kill, good loto but too bad, so sad. Next. 🙂

  40. [I think Morrison will come out with one of the top two jobs — he has been the only cut-through front bencher.]
    Spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt over asylum seekers is the easiest job in politics.

  43. [I reckon the election is over already.]

    [it was over before it began

    we are just going thru the motions]

    Beware hubris and complacency. Remember the opposition to Labor comes on at least four fronts: the official Opposition, News Ltd, their ABC, and the talkback rednecks.

  44. “Greens will likely be the big winners with BOP credentials post July 1 next year. Just might scare the Libs to deal on CC before then.”

    Yup, i think this will most likely be the significant outcome of this election. The Senate will actually work and the Govt wont be hostage to the likes of Fielding and the extreme right wing if the Fiberals and Nats.

    ALP will have two paths to get things through the Senate, either negotiate it with the Greens who will finally have something REAL to offer in their own right (which will be a big win for the Greens and will make or break them), or with the Coalition who will have to stop their “block everything” tactics or be consigned to real irrelevance.

  46. [ I would note write Tone off yet, Julia could be exposed as an axe murdering, vampire, zombie and he may win by a seat or two.]

    Abbott may get up. Its never over until the votes are counted.

    I would expect Julia’s partner, Tim to be smeared in a major way, sooner than later. I know nothing of him, but I’m sure the libs dirt unit have researched him since he was an amoeba.

    Does Julia have a cat or dog – they had better look out as well. 🙂

  48. My take on Abbott today is that he has been nobbled, he was reading a script poorly, looking to his extreme left after every para as if to seek approval. It was not the normal Tone, it was the Tone in whalebone. (check the eye movement in his speech).

    His confidence is shot as he tries so hard to follow his minders script, it is not him and it castrates his strengths.

  49. [Spreading Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt over asylum seekers is the easiest job in politics.]

    yeah, but Shows — that is the main ‘asset’ for a Lib contender.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 13 of 14
1 … 12 13 14