Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
[ Disappointing to see you swallowing this piece of left-wing propaganda, Glen. You should know better. And you call yourself a Churchillian!
Adam I follow the Niall Ferguson view on WW1 😀
As far as I know Niall Ferguson is not a left winger ]
Is it Mr Ferguson’s view that German imperialism should have been allowed to conquer Europe without opposition? Is that your view? If so, I say, ptui. If it is not your view, what is?
[World War I, the Oxford historian says, “was nothing less than the greatest error of modern history.]
[Ferguson says World War I made it virtually inevitable that Lenin and Hitler and their deadly totalitarianisms — not to mention World War II — would follow.]
HEAR HEAR!
And Ferguson is a Tory 😀
http://www.post-gazette.com/books/reviews/19990829review321.asp
The claim was that this article asserted that “the media” were united behind Abbott. The article as quoted does not assert that. Commentators are not the media.
Adam
[Is it Mr Ferguson’s view that German imperialism should have been allowed to conquer Europe without opposition? Is that your view?]
A German victory over France would have got Europe to a point where it is today with Germany essentially running Europe (economically that is).
Britain should NEVER have got involved it cost it her Empire in the long run.
Ferguson response to your question…
[He contends that if Britain had stood aside even for a few weeks in August of 1914, Germany’s superior army would have probably quickly defeated France. That would have left Germany the No. 1 European power, Ferguson says, but so what?
“Continental Europe could therefore have been transformed into something not wholly unlike the European Union we know today — but without the massive contraction in British overseas power entailed by the fighting of two world wars.”]
http://www.post-gazette.com/books/reviews/19990829review321.asp
So what does Ferguson say Britain and France should have done when Germany invaded Belgium?
[Continental Europe could therefore have been transformed into something not wholly unlike the European Union we know today ]
Then he is a complete moron and so are you.
Speaking of the Meeja:
Eh, it all fell to pieces when the Holy Roman Empire was dissolved by Monsieur Bonaparte! Bring back the HRE, I say! 🙄
Polls update:
wiliam
without revealing confidences would it be fair to say more than one “commentator” has posted here?
or am I being led down the garden path?
Is that like how the Earth dodges the moon?
Glen I think you’d better rejoin the Liberal party if you’re going to degenerate into a left-wing pacifist appeaser and nong so quickly.
Adam…
Lenin + Russian Revolution + Communism
British lose their Empire and go into massive debt
Adolf Hitler and the Nazis have the Treaty of Versailles to bash moderates in Germany…
Millions dead and wounded.
Oh and World War 2.
Yeah WW1 was a picnic!
It should have been left a European conflict.
Germany would have won.
France would lose some territory as would Belgium (who would also be within a German Trade Union).
Big whoop!
I would take German Imperialism than having the Nazis thankyou very much!
Adam you are entitled to your own opinion, though I wont go so low as to call you a moron which you are not.
Newspoll on hold for another week?
[It’s not in the interest of any opposition to have policies rolled out before the campaign begins.]
True but Oppositions need a “vision thing”. Howard had no policies but won office on his relaxed and comfortable vision. Beazley lost becuase he opposed for oppositions sake.
Latham had policies that were discredited by the Govt and lost. Rudd had policies that were not discredited and won.
Abbott’s biggest problem is convincing people that cutting spending does not equal cutting services, I reckon he has buckleys.
Rua might like this from his former employer 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUK6nIoBQMI
[Glen I think you’d better rejoin the Liberal party if you’re going to degenerate into a left-wing pacifist appeaser and nong so quickly.]
Ummm if you heard my posts last night I was advocating Chamberlain threaten to declare war in 1938 and ensure the Czechs arent sold out. I was suggesting a war in 1938 should have been pursued. I do not call this being a left wing bleeding heart pacifist appeaser!
Can someone on here state who in the media, either gives favourable or at the very least fair coverage for the ALP?
@Frank/1309, how can polls be delayed?
The role of the Opposition is to oppose, I do agree with that. I understand therefore, that it is very difficult for an Opposition to “win” government. Generally in the last 30 years of Australian politics, the incumbent government “loses” their final election after a period in power. I still believe that people were looking to get rid of Howard in 2004, but Latham was far from credible. Rudd came along, appeared to be credible, and romped home. Of all the factors that Abbott has against him (other than being essentially unelectable) the biggest is that Labor have only had one term and have a fair margin. If there was only 5 or 6 seats in it then it’s a totally different ball game.
[Rua might like this from his former employer ]
Hey Frank brings back memories. 🙂
Dee – in my opinion, Paul Buongiorno.
Yes but rua @ 1315, nobody (being the msm) might ask him.
Abbott will say that he will not overly cut spending, bring the budget back to surplus, and still fund his promises. If he is caught out, he will say that it is only temporary (like his coy tax for his parental scheme) without scrutiny. 🙁
Dee be easier if they (jurnos) told us who they vote for but hey.
Dee, Kerry O’Brien and yes Paul Bongiorno.
Come the election, his announcements, and the details thereof, will be held to much higher scrutiny. He won’t be able to afford to have “non-gospel moments” during the campaign. Everything he says will be written in stone!
What about journalists who are neutral and objective? Who don’t care who it is and will thoroughly scrutinise a politician. And the only reason Labor may get the worst of it, is that they are the ones in government?
gloryconsequence
Wow! That’s a good start. 1 so far.
Do you know of any radio jocks who are fair & even handed? I don’t. Everyone I hear spend all day slamming the ALP.
So far I can see that Abbott’s election campaign will be two-pronged:
1) “We’ll bring the budget back in to surplus”
The people who listen to this are already Liberal voters, in my opinion. I have a few friends who continually sprout the “but look at all the money they’ve spent, there goes the surplus!” and they are heavy Liberal voters. In fact, one said openly “I believe Abbott would be a shocking PM, he is unelectable and embarrassing, but I will vote Liberal still”. The budget surplus argument does not cut through, and they need to realise that. It doesn’t cut through because we are not in recession and have good unemployment figures. It’s an easy win for Labor here.
2) Asylum Seekers
And unless there is another Tampa-esque incident (the public won’t fall for lies again, but I mean a game-changing incident, like a boat person being found to somehow have links with Al Qaeda or something) people will get sick of hearing about this during an election campaign.
This is coming from Labor eyes – anyone got any other ideas on what Abbott will bring to the table?
Psephos,
If you are still interested, I think I am an actual Liberal. I have given them money in the past, (membership fees plus a donation or two). In return, they send me endless reams of crape in the mail, plus invitiations to dinners or breakfasts, where I would, no doubt, be asked to give them more money.
I am not currently financial, not out of any disappointment in the Libs, more out of bone laziness.
I am considering helping out the Stable Population Party, if the AEC finalises their registration before Julia calls the next election.
TSOP
[or at the very least fair coverage for the ALP?]
By fair, I mean telling it like it is.
centre
tj,middleton and oakes
Yes and no. While, academically, it is standard to declare your bias in any sociological analysis, journalism isn’t academic. All doing that will do is make genuinely objective journalists mistrusted by half the population, and make the more slimy ones just figleaf their views (eg. a right wing hack always trashing Labor claiming to be a “faithful Labor voter”)
TSOP but we can all take a punt on who they vote for…and we’d be close I’d say.
It would explain why some reports are made the way they are and if in fact the ABC jurnos all vote Liberal as many suggest.
German imperialism in 1914 was nearly as bad as German imperialism in 1939. They didn’t intend exterminating the Jews, but otherwise there wasn’t much difference. They would have annexed Belgium and northern France, turned France and Italy into vassal states, and built a slave empire in Poland and Russia, just as Hitler intended. To compare this to the EU in such a flippant way is disgusting, and disgraceful for a university historian. Hitler didn’t invent German racism against the Slavs, he inherited it from Prussia and the Second Reich. The sacrifices that Britain made, great though they were, were well worth the result of stopping German imperialism. Hitler didn’t happen because Britain resisted Germany in 1914, he happened because of the foolishness of the French at Versailles in 1919.
I recommend you read The Course of German History by A J P Taylor, a good British liberal and patriot.
[they send me endless reams of crape in the mail,]
Crepe? You can use it to decorate your Christmas tree!
[By fair, I mean telling it like it is.]
In that case:
Tony Jones, Kerry O’Brien, Paul Bongiorno, Karen Middleton – just to name a few. They usually are found around the ABC/SBS continuum, but there are some outside that zone (like the aforementioned Bongiorno.) They are just harder to notice, because they actually do their jobs properly and don’t hold back even when it is Labor. They also don’t shout their views like the hacks…
To Speak Of Pebbles @ 1327,
Yeah like the scrutiny Howard got when in government.
Why don’t you name all the supposedly neutral journalists and I will name the right wingers like Albrechetsen, Grattan, Farr, Mitchell, Jones, Milne, Bolt, Devine etc. etc. etc. if you want me to keep going I could be here all night thinking about it.
[Crepe? You can use it to decorate your Christmas tree!]
Great idea for the Direct Action crud I got from Somlyay with a grinning Tone on the front, snip it into little bits. 😉
[Yeah like the scrutiny Howard got when in government.]
Howard and his cohorts received plenty of scrutiny from those I mentioned, and others. I vividly recall an early 2007 LL interview between Tony Jones and Peter Costello, when the former had the latter so hard on the ropes that he looked ready to remove his mike and storm out in anger!
[Why don’t you name all the supposedly neutral journalists and I will name the right wingers like Albrechetsen, Grattan, Farr, Mitchell, Jones, Milne, Bolt, Devine etc. etc. etc. if you want me to keep going I could be here all night thinking about it.]
Please try to distinguish between journalists and commentators. Albrechtsen, Bolt and Devine don’t claim to be journalists. They write opinion pieces, which you can agree with or not, or ignore altogether.
It’s very sad actually. One’s personal opinions should have minimal influence on their journalistic work. If the story is there, you always go for it.
Opinionated journalism is always bad, regardless of whom it favours.
Hitler was treated too leniently for the Beer Hall Putsch. He should have been given a longer sentence, served more of his sentence, in a tougher gaol and been deported back to Austria at the conclusion of his sentence.
speers in fact the whole of sky
most of the abc
half the SBS
80/20 the comicals
mexicanbeemer @ 1253
[I’ve sometimes wondered what would have happened had the Germains won WWII]
There have been a number of alternative history novels written over the years that explore the idea of the Germans winning WW2. The most notable and detailed of these is ‘Fatherland’ written by Robert Harris and set in a mythical Berlin in 1964 where Germany were the victors. The book was published in 1992 and goes into some amount of intricate detail about what a post WW2 Europe may have been like, weaving actual Nazi and SS personages from the 1940s into an alternate world in the 1960’s – a very thought provoking novel that was also made into an average movie starring Rutger Hauer. A google search on ‘Fatherland’ yields a lot of information about the details contained in the book, if you don’t want to actually get the book.
Another WW2 alternate history is ‘SS GB’ written by Len Deighton, the author of ‘The Ipcress File’ and published in 1978. This novel posits an England in 1941 where the Germans did invade and conquer, and centers on a scramble for nuclear secrets between the Nazis, the British and the Americans. Quite an exciting little story, and again very well researched in regard to the SS.
The last of the well known WW2 alternate histories is ‘The Man in the High Castle’ by famed sci fi writer, Philip K Dick and published way back in 1962 which deals with a US split between Japan controlling the west coast and Germany controlling the east coast after an Axis victory, and is, again, full of many thought provoking ideas of what might have been.
All 3 are worth getting a hold of, if this is your interest.
faux news isnt areal news organisation-merely a lib propoganda factory
Rubbish Adam!
Germany had a tiny Empire as it started late.
Belgium hardly IMHO they’d have taken some territory but the rest would have been left alone aside from being within an Economic Sphere of influence.
Parts of France would have been taken but not terribly much.
Italy wasn’t even in the First World War till 1915. So it would lose no territory.
If France had capitulated I’m pretty sure the Germans and Russians would have made a deal. So I doubt more than Poland would have been lost if any.
That is all if the war ended in 1914 which it should have.
[The sacrifices that Britain made, great though they were, were well worth the result of stopping German imperialism. Hitler didn’t happen because Britain resisted Germany in 1914, he happened because of the foolishness of the French at Versailles in 1919.]
Britain should have stayed out and would have if Belgium’s neutrality hadnt been violated.
Why should Britain be involved in a European dispute?
Yes by Britain propping up the French in the North this stopped the German Right Wing and it did mean the Brits ensured the war would not end in 1914. If it had you’d never had Hitler and the German Monarchy would not have fallen.
Ummm the British were also at Versailles too Adam and they did nothing to stop a punitive peacve. Versailles either should have broken up the country into 3 pieces or the Germans should have got off basically scot free.
Herbert Asquith has a lot to answer for IMHO!
[The lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.]
Sir Edward Grey
It should also be noted that the commentary written on opinion pages and blogs are allowed to be biased, as that is their intended nature.
Whatever drivel Akerman or Bolt write in their opinion pieces is their right. That’s why we have a section in the media called “Opinion”!
It actually was a capital offence. The judge apparently took pity on how pathetic and misguided Hitler was.
TSOP
He should have been executed. It was treason.