Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor

Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.

A bit of federal news:

• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).

Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.

• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.

New South Wales news:

• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.

• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.

• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Labor”

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  1. [Hitler was treated too leniently for the Beer Hall Putsch. He should have been given a longer sentence, served more of his sentence, in a tougher gaol and been deported back to Austria at the conclusion of his sentence.]

    At last Tom, a post I entirely agree with. There were many points at which Hitler could have been stopped, and that was one of them.

    [Britain should have stayed out and would have if Belgium’s neutrality hadnt been violated.]

    But Belgium’s neutrality WAS violated, because that was the reality of Prussian militarism. Your post is just fantasy, Glen. No-one with any knowledge of the Kaiserreich could write such tosh.

  2. If I wasn’t a committed ALP voter it would be damn hard to see any good in the Labor party with all the negative press.
    Studies showed that there is bias across the media including the ABC to the conservatives.
    I think that in the lead up to & during election periods this bias is amplified.

  3. OK. Psephos. But if I was connected to the Labor Party, I would be concerned with media reporting at the moment.

  4. He should have been executed. It was treason.

    Go back in time and tell that to the judge…

    Although I must confess that I would’ve been against his execution. (Assuming I had no idea what he was going to do)

  5. [Anyway that’s all on that subject. I’m immersed in Ghana election statistics.]

    Just think you have the Japanese upper house to immerse yourself in later.

  6. 1349

    I oppose capital punishment.

    The judge in his case had treated him leniently before in an assault case and should not have been allowed to take his treason case.

    5 years is too short for a treason sentence that involved an actual coup attempt.

    Serving 13% of a treason sentence is also too little and he had to much access to visitors and was in too soft a prison.

    He was at the time still Austrian and should have been deported back there.

  7. “Hitler happened because of the foolishness of the French at Versailles in 1919. ”

    What does this refer to?

  8. [“Hitler happened because of the foolishness of the French at Versailles in 1919. ”

    What does this refer to?]

    Galaxy in the Tele tomorrow I think?

  9. Michelle

    The Treaty of Versailles.

    Of course Adam fails to note the punitive actions of all thos Allied nations who attended.

  10. “Hitler happened because of the foolishness of the French at Versailles in 1919. ”

    What does this refer to?

    The punitive conditions of the treaty, including annexation of the western Rhineland to the French (wherein there are plenty of valuable coal resources), and the ban on the Germans from mounting a military, hurt the Germans economically as well as offended their national pride. Hitler used that resentment and the crippled German economy to aid his rise to power.

  11. [I oppose capital punishment.]

    So do I. I just mentioned it being a capital offence to highlight how lightly he actually got off.

  12. The ToV was a slap in the face not a knock out blow it should have been or a pat on the back (if you prefer not offending them).

    Essentially the ToV was tough enough to really really hurt Germany but not enough to destroy them as a country. On the other hand it was not lenient enough so that they wouldnt want revenge in the future.

  13. Yes. The general belief is that the Germans should’ve either been totally defeated in WWI, and/or the allies should’ve worked with the post war Germans to stabilise their nation and help their new republic bloom. The Kaiser wasn’t reigning when the treaty was signed – there was no need to cripple the nation.

  14. Also, if they had helped with the new German republic, its economy may have boomed and war reparations paid quicker.

  15. Strange, we can never seem to get enough of Hitler…

    Did anyone happen to see any of the commercial TV stations news sessions this evening? In particular was it negative or positive for Gillard or Abbott? I may have to amend today’s provisional score which stands at a win for Abbott which gains him a two point lead in the cumulative total.

  16. [Studies showed that there is bias across the media including the ABC to the conservatives.
    I think that in the lead up to & during election periods this bias is amplified.]

    Quite interesting, though, that when it was blatantly obvious during the 2007 campaign that Howard was toast, most of the “centre/middle” media jumped on Rudd’s side very quickly. Rudd was very well supported in the closing stages of the campaign and was very well endorsed. It’s different this time for the simple fact that Labor are in government.

    It’s going to be interesting to see which papers actually endorse Abbott. I think many will push for him to win but won’t endorse him in the end.

  17. Boerwar – the news stations in Adelaide ran “Gillard back in her home city to see her parents, didn’t have to dodge any eggs, but Stephen Smith had to dodge questions on whether or not the asylum seeker policy would be implement within the next term”. Abbott got no coverage.

  18. Boerwar: Gillard went to see her mum and dad. No news outlet could possibly spin that as negative.

    Didn’t see Abbott, so that must count as a positive as well. 😉

  19. Well, I missed the discussion, but a need to stop the Second Reich progressively subjugating Europe, whether politically or just economically, does not necessarily mean that Europe needed World War I.

    There may have been possibilities in-between the two extremes…

  20. Having had an interest in Nazi Germany since I was a boy, my library is overflowing with such tomes. On a generalist level, I recommend William L. Shirer’s definitive ‘The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich’ published in 1959, but yet to be surpassed, in my view, as an overview of the entire Nazi phenomenon.

    Indespensible in trying to understand Hitler and Nazism is ‘Mein Kampf’ – if you can stick with the turgid and overblown language, even in the translation into English, it goes a long way to providing some explanation as to what demons drove Hitler to his diabolical obessions.

    For a general history of WW2, still the best, in my view, is Churchill’s definitive 6 volume ‘The Second World War.’

    In recent years there have been a number of very good biographies of senior Nazi figures, notably ‘Himmler – Reichs Fuhrer SS’ by Peter Hadfield published in 1990 and “Heydrich – the Face of Evil’ by Mario Dederichs published in 2005 which shed light on these Nazi lieutenants who executed much of the most horrendous aspects of the Nazi policies.

    There have also been a few very fine specific WW2 ‘battle’ books, beginning with the estimable and exhaustively research works like Antony Bevoor’s ‘Stalingrad in 1998, then his ‘Berlin – the Downfall 1945’ in 2002 and his most recent ‘D-Day – the Battle for Normandy’ in 2009.

    There are a mountain of works on The Holocaust and the SS, too many to detail here, but almost all a worth a look in trying to understand how these maniacal misfits came to power.

  21. Is Barnaby still opposition shadow for Finance? Why don’t we hear more from him? It’s always refreshing and entertaining to listen to his dignified, restrained and well researched commentary on political issues.

  22. Crikey, Newspoll delayed for a week?!

    That bad for the Libs, huh?

    Although, it’s primarily out of collusion with Nielsen, the secondary factor is the likelihood that the election commencing this week and them wanting to take a snapshot of the horses leaving the gates.

    Great news though. The immediate effects of the East Timor nonsense of a few days back would’ve faded.

  23. Is Barnaby still opposition shadow for Finance?

    No he got dumped after he made clear that he couldn’t tell the difference between one number and another number a thousand times its value, as well as doing his bit for economic confidence by predicting economic armageddon because the states have debt!

  24. While we are discussing alternative histories,

    One of my favourite musings is what would have happened in our region if Germany had been allowed to keep Papua and New Guinea in the aftermath of WWI.

    I presume Japanese ambitions in the South Pacific would have been aided with access to a base of operations,…some very frightening scenarios for Australia.

  25. What if the Dutch had colonised Australia? What if the American colonies had lost the war of independence? What if Hitler got accepted into art school?

    So many variables in history. And everything is connected to something that preceded it. Love it!

  26. Fulvio,

    No, it’s Robb now.

    Barnaby has something to do with water use in agriculture, doesn’t he?

    Even though Heffernan is apparently highly informed (!) on the same subject, so I’m not sure if Barnaby actually does much there…

  27. Dumped? Dumped!

    Why wasn’t I told!

    How is it possible that Abbott would dump his most articulate, informed and measured shodow minister without there being a hue and cry in the MSM.

    This is a travesty I won’t be forgetting at the next election, mark my word!

    Did he at least receive another shadow ministry in keeping with his talents?

  28. [Galaxy 52/48, same as last time, with 2/3 (both sides) supporting the Gillard policy]

    I can live with that! The OO will have a field day though! (anything less than a 66-34 ALP lead is good for the Libs to them)

    My memory is a bit fuzzy, and I am too lazy to look it up, but didn’t Galaxy constantly undersell Rudd and Labor in 2007? I think I can recall one that was 50-50, while others were still 55-45. I could be wrong on that last part though.

  29. Mr Squiggle,

    One of my favourite musings is what would have happened in our region if Germany had been allowed to keep Papua and New Guinea in the aftermath of WWI.

    Only if Billy had fallen under a tram before Versailles!

  30. Actually, coming when it did, before the MSM beatup and lies on the Regional Processing issue were exposed, and Smith’s effective counter attack. it’s not a bad result for Labor.

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