Morgan has published its first face-to-face poll conducted on Julia Gillard’s watch, other recent efforts having been phone polls. This one combines polling conducted over the last two weekends, and it shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 in the last poll under Rudd to 56.5-43.5. Those of you who have already looked at the Morgan press release might be surprised to learn this, as the headline figure is 55-45. This is because Morgan has apparently decided to switch from the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election” measure to “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote”, and as has been widely noted this is less favourable for Labor. The Morgan headline’s statement that Labor has picked up a 6 per cent swing is based on comparison with last week’s anomalous phone poll result. Interestingly, the poll reports the opening of a huge gender gap, with Labor leading 60.5-39.5 among women and trailing 50.5-49.5 among men. The primary vote has Labor up 4.5 per cent on the last poll under Rudd, with the Coalition down three points to 38 per cent and the Greens down two to 10.5 per cent. Curiously, the sample was only 299 for the first of the two weekends, immediately after the leadership change, which explains the lack of a face-to-face result last week. The more recent weekend’s sample was a more normal 879.
A bit of federal news:
• South Australian Labor Senator Annette Hurley, who had the top position on the Senate ticket for the coming election, has instead announced she will retire. Her Right faction must now decide who will replace her as candidate for one of the two unloseable positions, the other of which is held by Left faction incumbent Anne McEwen. Another incumbent, Dana Wortley of the Left, is expected to remain in third place (UPDATE: I am informed Wortley is now in the Right, which has mostly absorbed the “Duncan Left” sub-faction of which she formed part).
• Denis Atkins of the Courier-Mail last week quoted a “senior Queensland LNP campaign official”. Herbert and Petrie in particular are nominated as seats Labor is now likely to win.
• Andrew Wilkie will be making yet another bid for parliament, this time as an independent in Denison. He narrowly failed to win one of the five Denison seats at the March state election, polling 8.4 per cent of the vote.
New South Wales news:
• State Greens upper house MP Sylvia Hale has failed to win her preselection bid for the inner-city seat of Marrickville, which the party is expected to win at the election in March. They have instead nominated the candidate from the 2007 election, Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne. The NSW Greens have also been struggling with the revelation of Lee Rhiannon, currently in the state upper house and endorsed to run in the Senate at the coming federal election, has used state parliamentary resources on her federal campaign. Bob Brown has called on her to resign her upper house seat sooner rather than later, but she is insisting she will resign when the election is called.
• The Wentworth Courier has published a list of Vaucluse Liberal preselection hopefuls which includes former Malcolm Turnbull staffer Anthony Orkin, together with previously noted “PR professional Mary-Lou Jarvis, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Woollahra councillor Peter Cavanagh, restaurateur Peter Doyle”.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on nightmarish opinion polling for the NSW Labor government.
TSoP,
I wasn’t taking any chances!
K
Shoot first,ask questions later
😉
I’ve sometimes wondered what would have happened had the Germains won WWII
I know there are many websites play with the idea but it would appear that Hilter had no actual post war plans, or have they been lost to history.
[Meanwhile I am still tipping October not August for the election]
And give the opposition and the MSM another two months to focus on discrediting Labor’s AS policy. I don’t think so.
BTW I just saw Labor’s new health ad attacking Abbott on chanel 9. It’s very potent.
They’ll go in August alright.
[I’ve sometimes wondered what would have happened had the Germains won WWII]
This will give you some idea:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalplan_Ost
Don’t let Abbott take Australia backwards will resonate with many, but some want to go back to the Glory Days of John Howard.
Days when we were relaxed and comfortable, alert but not alarmed, when climate change was inconvenient, when welfare for work was paramount and you could be screwed by the boss free of charges.
Prevention is better than a cure, Gus!
Finish reconstruction of Berlin, with a huge dome as the centrepiece, hold an international expo in Berlin to show off the new city and then retire c.1950, allegedly.
[They’ll go in August alright.]
The only question is the 21st or 28th.
No doubt. The swords and spears are being sharpened, the armour is being forged and the horses are being readied. The winds of war are in the air!
Thanks for the health ad link Frank
I think it is pretty effective
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCKCTR5YAIk
[I’ve sometimes wondered what would have happened had the Germains won WWII]
No Fawlty Tower!!!!!!
“Whatever you do, mention the war as often as possible!”
And let’s not forget about workchoices?
Workchoices to business equals less costs. Less costs equal greater profits. Greater profits equal bigger dividends for shareholders. Bigger dividends for share holders equal higher share prices.Higher share prices equal larger bonuses for executives.
Goodone, executives get more, workers get less.
Also, Thomas Paine will face a conundrum. He wants Julia to fail but shareprices to fall 😆
The new Health ad just appeared in Adelaide – Channel 7 just before the sport and Channel 9 just before the weather.
It’s on.
The thing about the Health ad is that it will get under Abbott’s skin. He hated it in QT and he will have to respond with ah er I did not ah um cut um funding, I just er cut um the forward um estimates.
He may be able to keep his cool during an election campaign, but I doubt it.
My favourite quote from that article about Mr Akerman in the Sunday Age (referenced in the Wiki article) is this one.
‘Former `Sunday Herald’ staff remember many things about Mr Akerman’s style. They remember his obsession with the novel `The Silence of the Lambs’ and his feeling that its cannibalistic serial killer, Hannibal Lecter, was the most remarkable character he had come across’.
I’ll never look at Piers the same way again.
The hand in that Labor ad really creeped me out! Very effective!
ruawake – interesting comments, and valid. When the actual campaign begins, Abbott will need to defend his record as Health minister. Believe it or not, the media will actually begin to ask questions of him. The public will want some policies. Gillard got a 4-day honeymoon, but Abbott has had a 4-month honeymoon. And they’re still trailing.
And on cue the ABC complete the circle.
[The Federal Government is refusing to say if it will get its proposed offshore immigration centre up and running within the next three years.
Home Affairs Minister Brendan O’Connor has told Sky News he cannot put a timeframe on when a regional centre would be built.
“The Prime Minister has said there is no quick fix, but it is a priority of this Government and as she has said we will relentlessly pursue it and that’s all I can say on the matter,” he said.
“People will understand these things are complex.”
Opposition frontbencher Christopher Pyne says that is confirmation it will not be built before 2013. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/11/2950447.htm?section=justin
Good point. In fact, my analysis of the last few weeks suggests to me that it wasn’t so much that Gillard is having a honeymoon, but rather she ended Abbott’s.
I’ll await a Newspoll/Nielsen before I can confirm it though.
7 News used the same quote “refusing to say if it will even be up and running within it’s next term”. They’re just writing the stories as news, and then manipulating quotes and grabs to give it perceived context. Absolute trash journalism.
Abbott to this day has still refused to comment on whether or not he’ll instate serfdom, vassalage and slavery! Can we trust him?
Wouldn’t put slavery past him to be honest.
I wonder if the Libs are regreting spending so much money on dudd Rudd ads? I also wonder if the Australian will feature the Abbott attack ad on its front page tomorrow?
Is the Abbott attack ad on the Net yet
Don’t hold your breath. But there will be an article on how “negative” and “false” it is.
Centre
Notice the disgruntled egg throwing business owner angry at workers getting a wage rise hasn’t been given any oxygen.
Yeah!, sure they showed him throwing the egg but not one question asking him why he was so angry.
We wouldn’t want to expose the Workchoices loving business sector, now would we?
[I wonder if the Libs are regreting spending so much money on dudd Rudd ads?]
Any regret should have nothing to do with Rudd no longer being PM, and everything to do with the undergraduate quality of the ads themselves. Seriously unprofessional.
That Sky show this morning was another good one, with genuine balance and better discussion than what I’ve become used to with Insiders. I just hope Speers keeps it wingnut free.
[Following your logic…]
I was being flippant (minus the 😉 ) I admit but I think your suggestion was intended to be serious. That’s what made me laugh.
The photo of Abbort in that add is enough to scare the horses.
If he had lost his job, or something like that eg “The BER made me lose my job on the same day that my wife was killed in a fire from some bad insulation installed by a boat person!” he’d get an “exclusive interview” by various media outlets and plenty of airtime!
Maybe he can invent a story about his wife having an affair with the PM…
Kersebleptes,
[TSoP,
I very much disagree with you @ 1238… ]
Me too. Troothy would be much happier over on Pies and Bolters Blogs.
And I for one am much happier seeing him there and not here.
Abbott has no policies. He has taken every and any opportunity to attack the government and use it to form policy.
The government is criticised from mental health advocates, Abbott (who hates spending on any form of public health) proposes a mental health policy.
The government is criticised for not negotiating with small business over the mining tax, Abbott pretends to introduce a small business policy.
Let me own a commercial TV network or a major metropolitan newspaper. I would give Abbott 1 week.
Bottom RH side – is this the ad?
http://www.abbottfacts.com.au/
[Conservatives argue Abbott’s greatest achievement has been to ”galvanise the base”. While it could be argued Liberal voters end up voting Liberal anyway, one strategist said galvanising the base meant more.
He said Abbott’s combative and conservative approach had not only rattled the government but had fired up influential talkback hosts like Alan Jones and conservative columnists to the point they are solidly behind Abbott and merciless in their treatment of the government. Before, people like Jones were taking issue with Turnbull and his views, giving the Liberals no clear third-party advantage]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/turnbull-adds-spice-as-leaders-languish-20100523-w3sd.html
Centre 1284 – it’s actually bizarre that he hasn’t nailed down any policy platform yet. It was funny a month ago, not it is actually quite weird. Everyone knows the election will be in August. If he doesn’t produce something soon he’s in strife.
[Bottom RH side – is this the ad?]
Yep!
Dee, I still believe that Rudd lost his serious popularity when the commercial networks portrayed him of being ignorant to those who lost loved ones in the insulation installations.
Grubby edited journalism that got through 🙁
[ If he doesn’t produce something soon he’s in strife.]
Especially since Abbott has stated that the Coalltion will release policies before the election campaign, well Tone the election is on, where are the policies?
“Alan Jones and conservative columnists” does not equal “the media.”
[Disappointing to see you swallowing this piece of left-wing propaganda, Glen. You should know better. And you call yourself a Churchillian!]
Adam I follow the Niall Ferguson view on WW1 😀
As far as I know Niall Ferguson is not a left winger 😀
[“Alan Jones and conservative columnists” does not equal “the media.”]
True but don’t tell them, they think they are. 😉
Tom Hawkins, I understand.
Do forgive me. I regularly see the most ridiculous statements said in complete seriousness on here and other political sites. As a result, it’s very hard for me to detect jest!
Every government taunts every opposition for “having no policies.” It’s not in the interest of any opposition to have policies rolled out before the campaign begins. It just gives the government, with its far greater resources, time to pick holes in them. It’s the opposition’s job to attack the government. Very few governments are defeated because voters decide they prefer the opposition’s policies. Most governments are defeated because the opposition has succeeded in discrediting them.
William:
Dana Wortley is from the Right, not the left as your post claims.
I agree Pseph, I’m more referring to the “this is bad… and we will announce a policy for this in due course/before the campaign”. There hasn’t been the hint of a policy yet. Too much at once will appear fabricated aswell.
gloryc, the danger to Labor is not Abbott or the Liberals. They are nothing! The danger is Murdoch and all his arse lickers.
What pisses me is that they would be prepared to have Abbott as PM of Australia purely for their own selfish interests.
Shades of supporting GW Bush 🙂
Psephos
[“Alan Jones and conservative columnists” does not equal “the media.”]
Influential talkback hosts ‘like’ Alan Jones. ‘Plural’
Ummm….conservative media. How many journalists or DJ’s do you know of that are pro-ALP or at least erring somewhere in the middle.
damn, did it again at 1298. Should be 🙁