The second week of Essential Research polling under Julia Gillard has perfectly replicated the first, with Labor and the Coalition steady on 42 per cent and 39 per cent of the primary vote and Labor maintaining its 54-46 two-party lead. This compares with a Coalition primary vote lead of 40 per cent to 38 per cent in the final poll under Kevin Rudd, when Labor’s two-party lead was 52-48. Essential has also surveyed on approval of Julia Gillard for the first time, finding her approval rating at 48 per cent (seven points higher than Rudd’s final result from May 31) and disapproval at 27 per cent (20 points lower). Approval of Tony Abbott has been gauged for the second week running, and it does not replicate the result of the previous week – which was itself reflected in Newspoll – showing a bounce in the wake of the leadership change. His approval has gone from 35 per cent on May 31 to 40 per cent on June 28 to 37 per cent on July 5, while his disapproval has gone from 50 per cent to 39 per cent to 47 per cent. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 49-29, which is little different from the 47-30 lead Rudd recorded in his final poll. Also canvassed are best party to deal with various issues, which finds Labor gaining ground on every measure since three weeks ago (the interesting exceptions are “being honest and ethical” and “handling environmental and climate change issues”, which are stable). “Attributes to describe the Prime Minister” allow comparisons with Gillard on July 5 with Rudd on May 10, which are uniformly favourable to Gillard (who scores 21 points higher on being “down to earth”). Further questions show clear hostility to any notion of a “big Australia”.
Well this has been a shakey experience for Gillard, but the AS issue was always going to be a bumpy road. This was the hit in the face Labor had to brace themselves for, and it’ll sting for a short while but things will be fine. Hopefully.
The weekend is coming up, which will allow the news to be buried a little and come next week, Gillard can go on the front foot and announce a new policy (maybe something economic) and keep the momentum going.
And hopefully a new poll will come out very soon, because it is like pulling teeth reading the ideologue’s copy+paste, misinformed, revisionist history posts on here
[Friend of mine got one as well, and I assume Bilbo got one as well – even though I’ve sent him a copy of my Friend’s.]
I did indeed.
William Bowe@2602
Your thoughts on it’s value ??
Hmm, with the goings on here with Adele and the current happenings in the NSW Greens, i am reminded of an album title by the Dead Kennedy’s, “Fresh Fruit for Rotting Vegetables”.
Not that it has any particluar relevance i suppose, just a word association thing. A mate of mine got that album when we were in high school and i always liked it.
All this seems to be pointing to cop out by JGillard on CC after having Rudd delay the ETS and then dumping it herself. That they are trying to make these other issues higher profile points to something disappointing on the ETS, Carbon price front.
Again, JGillard’s earliest comments pointed to cop out on this.
If she fails to put something solid and real policy forward here then her rationale for knifing Rudd will be revealed for what it is. Everything she would have done is something the Libs could have done.
Many of her supporters are getting bitterly disappointed. How soon before Shorten gets busy again. 🙂
[FAMILIES and business owners will be offered energy-saving light bulbs, shower heads and other efficient appliances as Prime Minister Julia Gillard tries to restore Labor’s green credentials.
Last night, senior Government figures confirmed energy efficiency would be “front and centre” in next week’s announcement. Ms Gillard was convinced Australians “want to do something to reduce their own carbon footprint”, the sources said.
Well-placed Government sources said next week’s policy announcement – which is being finalised – would include plans for a national “energy-savings initiative”.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/labor-shifts-green-focus-to-households/story-e6frea8c-1225889560789
Toxic media is giving JGillard a bath on the AS issue.
She is really coming over very green and immature as a leader, lack of planning and back ups, basic strategy stuff. Terrible idea to fight on Liberal turf and go lite Liberal along with the dog whistling.
If she goes forward like this on every policy she will be dismantled by the media. Wonder if the will start begging Rudd to sort out her election campaign and go through her policies and providing strategies for her.
Thomas Paine@2606
Is that you Piers ??
You’re doing an excellent job for the Libs – you better join them as they love your work.
[If she fails to put something solid and real policy forward here then her rationale for knifing Rudd will be revealed for what it is.]
Thomas, when are you going to move on? This is nothing new. For the fourth time:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/parties–not-the-people–choose-leader-says-hawke-20100701-zqra.html
Yes, imacca.
I left this scene to watch my recorded SD Lateline on Great Aunt’s ABC.
And as you said, iamacca:
“Watched Lateline tonight and considering its REALLY early days as far as that proposal is concerned i’d say its actually been recieved as positivley as could be hoped by Horta and Gusmao”.
Agree. Love those men. Paraphrasing. Not debase ourselves. Not bring in other issues, like the oil. Humanitarian.
Particularly as I was baffled by the conflicting news that Julia is denying sort of that she approached Timor L. Backing down on a less than considered position?
And if she really is (even more rashly) considering PNG, that would be the absolute pits and lunacy. Given that high fences, electrics and barbed wire are the barrier of choice between the haves and nots, as it stands.
So she had better lose that idea. Fast.
TP makes good points at 2598.
Though, would the Libs risk absolutely everything by changing Leaders?
Going to sleep now.
Until then.
The West’s story on Gillard’s Trip to WA.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/7553791/gillard-sweeps-in-to-boost-alp-fortunes/
There goes, lies, lies, lies, and the Miners. No wonders the comrades are pretty relax about our own MRT. Never stand between a bucket of money and the Comrades.
[ Now China is set to go ahead with its own resources tax
JOHN GARNAUT
July 9, 2010
CHINA is set to impose a nationwide resources tax that will shift revenue from corporations to local governments and raise the price of energy.
The measures have been billed as a way of curbing environmental destruction and retaining value from the resources boom in impoverished but minerals-rich parts of western China.
”The central government has already decided to start a trial program in Xinjiang and the scheme will be promoted nationwide based upon those experiences,” Du Ying, a vice-chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters yesterday.
The announcement sits awkwardly against the claim last month by Fortescue’s Andrew Forrest that Australia was turning communist because of its resource rent tax while China was turning capitalist amid ”a fierce debate about how to lower their resources tax to encourage the mining industry”.
Clinton Dines, a resources consultant and BHP’s former China president, said that the timing of the announcement was consistent with a worldwide trend.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/now-china-is-set-to-go-ahead-with-its-own-resources-tax-20100708-102dx.html
Did anyone here expect the MSM to go easy on Gillard? I think they have given her a much better run than expected. The extreme negativity and hatred for Rudd is gone, but they are still Lib backers at heart
And TP, enough. Who are you backing, Gillard or Abbott??
Great jobless figures – and Fairfax highlights inflationj fears.
Horta talks positively – and the ABC leads with opposition party Fretilin’s negative views.
Toxic media indeed!
Internet Filter gets another pasting, as it should – it’s a dog of a policy.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/internet-filter-wont-protect-kids-20100708-102ap.html
And some sense from the Greens on the filter:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/gillard-should-halt-isp-filtering-plan-greens/story-e6frgakx-1225889467829
Pity they didn’t consider this when designing the ETS which would have denied people the ability to do something about carbon emissions.
But if that is all there is in Labor’s new policy then it will show, again, that they aren’t really serious about tackling AGW. Individual action is akin to bailing out the Pacific with a bucket. It has its place, but in isolation it won’t have much effect.
An interesting take on the BER debacle {sic}…Funnily enough school principals are school principals and not property development project managers…
[DIY principals may lose millions for not finishing buildings
School principals who have managed their own building programs are needing to be rescued by the NSW government as their projects falter, says the Infrastructure Co-ordinator-General, Bob Leece.
Four public primary schools in NSW opted to self-manage building projects under the $16.2 billion federal government’s Building the Education Revolution program.
One of the unnamed primary schools has dropped out. Two others are at risk of losing $6 million in federal money for failing to complete construction works, including classrooms, a covered outdoor learning area and a library, within a deadline.
”All the schools were given the opportunity {to self-manage},” said Mr Leece, the man charged with overseeing the scheme by the NSW government.
”Only eight said they would like to do this. I sent a very experienced construction project manager out to each of those schools to explain to them the responsibilities they were undertaking. Of those, four decided to proceed. One withdrew. One has been successful and the other two need assistance.
”At this point they both run the risk of running extremely late. Therefore, the state will have to pick up the liability.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/diy-principals-may-lose-millions-for-not-finishing-buildings-20100708-102bl.html
[But if that is all there is in Labor’s new policy then it will show, again, that they aren’t really serious about tackling AGW. Individual action is akin to bailing out the Pacific with a bucket. It has its place, but in isolation it won’t have much effect.]
are you moregreen or more liberal , most labor people that come here say exactly this at this time we do not want abbott with a slogan
Another big tax, end of story. good policy at this time in an election cycle
green should get over move on and realise it will happen eventually.
[Internet Filter gets another pasting, as it should – it’s a dog of a policy.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/internet-filter-wont-protect-kids-20100708-
\
Most people do not understand it and dont care and the msm can say what they like if a little bit helps re the grandchildren will so bit it
[and the ABC leads with opposition party Fretilin’s negative]
it seems no mater what country you live in the opposition opposes
o well suppose that’s why they call themselves the opposition
Go Julia
i have decided not to read tp as i decided not to read truthy
[An interesting take on the BER debacle {sic}…Funnily enough school principals are school principals and not property development project managers…]
Good morning Laocoon,
A very good summary and what a surprise!
Of course the MSM will be all over this, I must say.
One thing this shows is that the govt desperately need someone with the intelligence and gravitas as Rudd very close to the seat of power. Sure you can bag the guy for his communication skills but his knowledge, intellect and energy are vital to this govt. Gillard may have thought she could push him to the sidelines for a while but he is integral to this govt and should be back asap. I remain convinced he will be back as leader one day.
After last night I have to revise my score of yesterday. Own goal for Gillard.
A clear win to Abbott yesterday.
[A clear win to Abbott yesterday.]
WHY
][ his display down at the market made me quite ill.]
and was julia on late line? with the timor situation she is not going to say much more till it settled.? what else did she do for you to say that for me just seeing her is a score may be alot of woman feel like that,.
Tony said some on the sbs news i did not hear it but my oH who just listens doesnt say much about politics shook his head in amazment does any one know what he said
we then discussed that statement i will cut tax cuts and we then thoutht it was a slip of the tongue and he means there will be NO more tax cuts.??
Last night, ManundaGreen posted the following document, UN HCR Projected Global Resettlement Needs 2011:
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/ASAZ-873GMX/$file/UNHCR_Jul2010.pdf?openelement
On page 45, it shows UNHCR resttlement submissions in 2009 (which I think are like applications to member states to take refugees). Australia was #3 in this ranking:
[USA 102,586
Canada 6,985
Australia 5,638
Germany 3,603
Sweden 2,462
Norway 1,707
United Kingdom 1,166
Finland 993
Denmark 861
Netherlands 838
All Others 1,719]
On page 47, it shows “Resttlement departures” in 2009 (I think, actual refugees accepted by member states). Australia was #2
[USA 62,011
Australia 6,720
Canada 6,582
Germany 2,064
Sweden 1,880
Norway 1,367
United Kingdom 969
Finland 710
New Zealand 675
Denmark 488
All Others 1,191]
And looking at the acceptance rate (Resettlements/Submissions), Australia in 2009 was ranked #1 (and in fact, together with NZ, the old empire probably takes out the top 4 positions):
[Australia 119%
Canada 94%
UK 83%
Norway 80%
Sweden 76%
All others 73%
Finland 72%
USA 60%
Germany 57%
Denmark 57%]
Now I suspect this UNHCR document (which is more of a marketing document than statistical compendium) is not the sole picture. One can make observations (as the UNHCR does) about the overall level of contribution of States to the problem. Australia’s relative contribution is also an interesting observation. And as Psephos observed last night, there are some obvious very wealthy countries not on this list at all (or hidden away as inconsequential “others”).
Hey BK…although I want the election called in the next few days, I would like to see Brad Orgill’s report come out…i.e. some facts around the (media/coalition/self-interested Gladys Kravitz) confected hysteria
[An interesting take on the BER debacle {sic}…Funnily enough school principals are school principals and not property development project managers…]
but tone want to hand it all over to the p and f at school volunteer level?
Exactly my say
Liar Abbott wants to bring public administration to his own level of amateur inexpertise!
2612
HOPE NO ONE MISSES THIS ONE well well
It feels like Greens supporters live in a parallel political universe. An ETS is electoral poison in the seats which matter. Most people in the suburbs will do whatever they can to protect the environment-provided they don’t have to pay for it. Anything which is going to push up power bills, which are already extremely high, is a big vote-loser. I don’t see any chance of an ETS until either the Right produces leaders like David Cameron or Angela Merkel who understand that AGW is real and very serious, or until the broad public (and not just inner-city lefties) understand that something needs to be done, and that it’s going to hurt.
[Most people do not understand it and dont care and the msm can say what they like if a little bit helps re the grandchildren will so bit it]
It’s a flawed idea regardless of what stance the msm take. Filters are not 100% accurate and there is a good probability legitimate content will be blocked.
In October 2008 The Age reported:
[The Government’s own laboratory trials have found that presently available filters are not capable of distinguishing adequately between legal and illegal content and can degrade internet speeds by up to 86 per cent.]
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/10/27/1224955916155.html?page=2
[On page 47, it shows “Resttlement departures” in 2009 (I think, actual refugees accepted by member states). Australia was #2]
Actually this indicates the number of refugees resettled from Australia. It would include those resettled to another countries, as well as domestically.
[ Filters are not 100% accurate and there is a good probability legitimate content will be blocked.]
It’s not only that, it won’t actually stop anyone getting illegal content. The policy is a sham. Nobody accidently stumbles across this stuff , and those determined to go looking will take all of 5 mins to tunnel through the filter. It is plain stupid for no net gain and I can’t for the life of me work out why they are pushing ahead with it.
[I have decided not to read tp as i decided not to read truthy]
That’s the best way to deal with people who are constantly annoying. I applied it to Truthy too, although I haven’t yet stopped reading TP. He occassionally comes out with something that is thought provoking.
All in all, not a good week for the Gillard government. First the Timor (as it was on Wednesday) solution has shown to be half baked, and there have been damning reports on the Green Loans scheme which has shown that there has probably been corrupt behaviour in the administration of the scheme as well gross incompetence.
Next weeks round of opinion polls may give some indication of when an election may be held. If they aren’t good, hold off for another week or two. By this time next week, October might look better than August.
[2570 Psephos
[From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
For the worldwide communion of Christians in communion with the bishop of Rome, see Catholic Church.
The word catholic is derived (via Late Latin catholicus and French catholique) from the Greek adjective ????????? (katholikos), meaning “universal”.[1][2] The word derives from the Greek phrase ?????? (kath’holou) meaning “on the whole” or “in general” and is a combination of the Greek words ???? meaning “about” and ???? meaning “whole.”[3] In the context of Christian ecclesiology, it has a rich history and several usages.]
re the subject of timor and catholics and Muslims as discussed last evening.
Jesus loved all comers so perhaps the two wise minds and compassionate
leaders of timor see it in a different way
Now would that not be a breath of fresh air there are also a wonderful order of nuns
attached to the mary McKillop convent in Australia who have missions in Timor
iam sure they would be very happy to lend a hand and not in a religious way but in anything that was deemed helpful
i think this looking at it would be an amazing example to australians
Go Julia
[Next weeks round of opinion polls may give some indication of when an election may be held. If they aren’t good, hold off for another week or two. By this time next week, October might look better than August]
I can’t see them waiting until October. They have to go now and shine the spotlight on Abbott.
My Say and others
You seem to ignore that the Catholic school system is getting much better value out of the BER than the state systems because the principal has decided what the school needs and is going to get (subject to the budget) and the principal remains intimately involved with the project. The Catholic Education Office runs the contracts and provides the professional backup.
At present in the state system you have nothing between the ‘father knows best’approach from the department and the principal taking all responsibility. Decentralising out the decision making would achive better outcomes though if the Libs were to win the election, there may not be too many projects left.
Darn. It is about time the spotlight is shined on Abbott. What are they waiting for?
The timorese have made it quite clear that they are not going to be the clearing house for those thousands of asylum seekers currently in Indonesia or Malaysia. It seems that that they want to have the Nauru role of those who have been intercepted on boats.
[All in all, not a good week for the Gillard government. First the Timor (as it was on Wednesday) solution has shown to be half baked]
i may be wrong you may be correct but i hope i am right.
from the anecdotal evidence i hear in the community every one loves Julia so much they are not taking notice of negatives
soe did say she should of done this or that, but most say well gosh she new to this she will make a few mistakes along the way but we love her
Ch 7 are still running negative on the mining tax (poor small miners they are angry), when does the issue go away for JG?
The focus on the Asylum seeker issue is overblown. Ultimately, people vote by the hip pocket. As someone famously said “it’s the economy stupid”. As stated in an earlier post, the election will be determined by interest rates, cost of living pressures, house prices and jobs. I maintain that Labor started to lose ground when interest rates started to rise at the same time as house prices. People want an ETS, but they don’t want to pay for it. Abbott’s fear campaign as a great big new tax worked.
Am i starting to detect a little bias here that perhaps she need a helping hand in decision making from the male species
“I can’t see them waiting until October. They have to go now and shine the spotlight on Abbott”
There were three major issues:
– Mining Tax – tick put to bed
– AS – not put to bed
– Carbon Price – something for next week.
One problem for the government is that AS is the one area where the Libs have a comprehensive policy (distatsteful as it is to many people). This week has not been successful for the government on the issue and every boat arrival will be a running sore.
The ducks need to be in a row on climate change (carbon pricing) or those polls will be showing another big leak to the left .
bakunin
[On page 47, it shows “Resttlement departures” in 2009 (I think, actual refugees accepted by member states). Australia was #2
Actually this indicates the number of refugees resettled from Australia. It would include those resettled to another countries, as well as domestically.]
I dont think so…the concept of resettlement you mention is in the top table on page 47, starting with Nepal and Thailand; the resettlement countries are at the bottom
The UNHCR would do everyone a favour by including a decent glossary of terms used
Victoria, you are quite right, AS will not be the deciding issue (hope not, it will make for a very ugly campaign otherwise) but it is an issue nonetheless. The advantage of August over October, is that there is a possibility of one interest rate rise, rather than maybe two by October.