The second week of Essential Research polling under Julia Gillard has perfectly replicated the first, with Labor and the Coalition steady on 42 per cent and 39 per cent of the primary vote and Labor maintaining its 54-46 two-party lead. This compares with a Coalition primary vote lead of 40 per cent to 38 per cent in the final poll under Kevin Rudd, when Labor’s two-party lead was 52-48. Essential has also surveyed on approval of Julia Gillard for the first time, finding her approval rating at 48 per cent (seven points higher than Rudd’s final result from May 31) and disapproval at 27 per cent (20 points lower). Approval of Tony Abbott has been gauged for the second week running, and it does not replicate the result of the previous week – which was itself reflected in Newspoll – showing a bounce in the wake of the leadership change. His approval has gone from 35 per cent on May 31 to 40 per cent on June 28 to 37 per cent on July 5, while his disapproval has gone from 50 per cent to 39 per cent to 47 per cent. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister 49-29, which is little different from the 47-30 lead Rudd recorded in his final poll. Also canvassed are best party to deal with various issues, which finds Labor gaining ground on every measure since three weeks ago (the interesting exceptions are “being honest and ethical” and “handling environmental and climate change issues”, which are stable). “Attributes to describe the Prime Minister” allow comparisons with Gillard on July 5 with Rudd on May 10, which are uniformly favourable to Gillard (who scores 21 points higher on being “down to earth”). Further questions show clear hostility to any notion of a “big Australia”.
[It is plain stupid for no net gain and I can’t for the life of me work out why they are pushing ahead with it.]
Who exactly is the mandatory filter pitched at? If the government thought it could lose a few progressive voters over AS in order to gain in the marginals, who exactly are they gaining back on the filter for all the young people and progressives who hate this policy?
[Posted Friday, July 9, 2010 at 9:31 am | Permalink
Ch 7 are still running negative on the mining tax (poor small miners they are angry), when does the issue go away for JG?]
issues only go away when the media find something else and also now that china is introducing a rent tax story above, the rest of the world will too always new we where the leaders in most things.
[2646 victoria
Posted Friday, July 9, 2010 at 9:33 am | Permalink
The focus on the Asylum seeker issue is overblown. Ultimately, people vote by the hip pocket. As someone famously said “it’s the economy stupid”. As stated ]
could not agree more its a big issue because tone and morrison made it so and the media well they just follow
all our about rating perhaps if they only new it they are driving many of us to turn of the tv we had a tv free day on Tuesday / wed it was heaven i would do it every day but oh get board and twitchy
blackburnpseph
[At present in the state system you have nothing between the ‘father knows best’ approach from the department and the principal taking all responsibility]
Yes probably something in your view that there could be a happy medium
[seems that that they want to have the Nauru role of those who have been intercepted on boats.]
that is exactly how i understood the policy when Julia explained it.
my say. Having a break from the media, is probably the best thing for one’s health and well being. What is needed is comic relief. The US have Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart. They put a great perspective on the musings of the media on a daily basis. It certainly lightens up the load. Ignorance can be bliss, but also boring!
“that is exactly how i understood the policy when Julia explained it.”
Well My Say, unfortunately that was the line on the first day, but it was more regional by the time it got to Lateline on Wed night.
This is the problem, the concept was a half baked quick fix and it has fallen flat. Tony Abbott has had his thought bubbles, this was Julia Gillards.
[I dont think so…the concept of resettlement you mention is in the top table on page 47, starting with Nepal and Thailand; the resettlement countries are at the bottom
The UNHCR would do everyone a favour by including a decent glossary of terms used]
Laocoon,
My apologies, your are correct.
Comic relief, of course is entertaining , but can be quite telling. In 2001, I knew Kim Beazley was gone when Peter Berner on Backburner put Kim into his sights rather than John Howard or Alexander Downer. And every week, Kim (quite unwittingly) gave them more material to work with.
blackburnseph. The comic relief I had in mind, is directed to the talking heads in the media. For example, there could be sketch about “backflips”. It appears to be the key word used by them all.
bring back “rubbery figures”!!
blackburnpseph
Perhaps you should read the LP articles before believing the OO and the Libs on the BER. They are an eye opener but not something the media is going to run with because it will spoil their own deceitful stories.
[in Queensland the average project cost for Government schools at $1,077, 711 is $303,740 (28.2 per cent) lower than the Catholic school average of $1,381,451 and $464,693 (43.1 per cent) lower than the Independent school average of $1,542,404.]
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/07/08/analyzing-craig-maynes-claims-full-post
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/07/08/lazy-media-and-the-ber-scheme
Did JGillard include Steve Smith or DFAT on developing her ET solution? I mean basic a mistake can you make when right up front you talk to the wrong person?
Rudd must be shaking his head at such a schoolgirl error.
So has the Govt lost its direction yet? Give it time but JGillard has broken the golden rule of bush walking, stick to the trail. Now she is in the scrub, every direction looks the same.
She better come up with a real solid CC policy and none of the Liberal Party dross otherwise that will be it for her, she will be given the mark “F” and thereafter hope the polls she inherited and her honeymoon will get her over the line. An early election is on the cards as it appears it is too risky to let JGillard go on too long and further ruin herself.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/07/may_global_surf.html
[Indeed, 2010 is set to be one of the world’s hottest years on record, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the first five months of the year was the warmest on record, and 1.22 degrees F warmer than the 20th century average, the NOAA states in its May 2010 State of the Climate Global Analysis.]
The filter is another really bad idea. It is just plain stupid. But really, there are other things to worry about, like climate change, which has become one of those issues that neither sides of politic wants to get too close to. Sometimes I think our political system brings out the worst in people…..
[Who exactly is the mandatory filter pitched at? If the government thought it could lose a few progressive voters over AS in order to gain in the marginals, who exactly are they gaining back on the filter for all the young people and progressives who hate this policy?]
At first I thought it must have been a sop to Steve Fielding, with the rationale being: “We’ll give you this and you’ll support our Bills in the Senate.”
If that was the reasoning it was doomed to failure from the beginning. Fielding has proven to be a Liberal in all but name, as demonstrated by his voting with them against emissions trading and even siding with them to prevent the Senate enquiring fully into the Godwin Grech Affair.
I assume it’s generally pitched at right-wing fundamentalist voters. A lost cause, as these would likely be unbudgeable Liberal rusted-ons, particularly with a right-wing fundamentalist leader such as Abbott.
The policy might (conceivably) have wedged the Liberals under a moderate such as Turnbull. But with Abbott as OL it gains Labor very little and loses some to the Greens.
Has Abbott come out and said (gospel-truthfully) that he is against filtering the internet? I wonder what Cardinal Pell thinks about it.
“neither side….”, ppphhh..
I’ve often wondered what the Labor and Liberal parties would look like if we didn’t have compulsory voting. Would they be even closer together to the point of being identical, or would they be more representative of their traditional bases?
The government is now engaged in talks with Ramos Horta about the possibility of a regional AS centre being built in East Timor. Isn’t that exactly what Gillard said she would do?
So apart from the MSM doing what it always does – making mountains out of mole hills – what is all the bloody fuss about?
[ Now she is in the scrub ]
She started in the scrub, KR the great navigator put Labor there because he thought in his infinitive wisdom that he knew better the GPS. JG has the unenviable roll of navigating back to the path so they can get out of the mess left them. Pull your head out of your proverbial TP, it is starting to look very unedifying.
ABC are reporting that there is no support for the centre to be built amongst any of the political parties after RH & XG discussed it.
Awarding one point for a draw and two points for a win we have, after two days:
Gillard 2 Abbott 2
TP – It is obvious you have taken a set against Julia Gillard and that is colouring all of your posts.
I have now added you to my “don’t read” list. So far it consists of you and Truthy.
Whilst Asylum Seeker policies will be an issue in the election campaign, they will not be a ‘vote changer’ for the majority of people, and those who will decide their votes solely, or most importantly on the basis of this one issue were almost certainly not going to be voting for the ALP anyway.
The issues of most importance to voters in their decision as to who they will vote for in the coming Federal Election, taken from some omnibus opinion polling done last week for the organisation I work for, in order of importance are:
(1) The Economy and how it is managed = 38%
(2) Healthcare and Hospitals = 23%
(3) Border Protection and Security = 8%
(4) Interest Rates = 7%
(5) The Environment, Global Warming, and how we respond = 7%
(6) Education and Schools = 7%
(7) The MRRT = 5%
(8) Industrial Relations = 2%
(9) Some other issue = 3%
This was from nearly 2,000 responses nationwide, so it is fairly robust. On this basis, when the campaign gets underway the usual bread and butter issues will come to the fore, and Asylum Seeker policy will be one of many issues under consideration by voters, so the current hysterics by the MSM will recede into the background, and the caravan will move on.
The Big Ship. Thanks for the stats. Hopefully, Labor will start to campaign based on it.
My two cents:
1. Internet filter: spoke to an ALP MP about this. Apparently there is significant support for this sort of thing in the general public (which personally I find fascinating). There are many church groups, community orgs and in particular parents who are ‘scared’ of the internet and not sure how to protect their children from it….(makes me think of Helen Lovejoy…”won’t someone think of the children?”). I vehemently disagree with the policy, but there according the to the ALP, there is significant support in the general populace for it.
2. I find it interesting that Gillard is talking about refugees. My feeling is that no matter what she says, this is a vote winner for the Libs – a la the Libs trying to ‘fix’ workchoices in the lead up to 2007. I would’ve thought the smart thing to do is stay away. The only logic I can see is that she’s trying to run it an issue now so it runs out of steam before she calls an election. A dangerous idea IMO because it risks the momentum she had, and already she has been branded with the backflip tag (rightly or wrongly). Monday I would’ve said an ALP victory later this year was inevitable. Now i’m only 70% sure.
Yo ho ho. Labor will win, question is how well?
not well me thinks Victoria.
[Whilst Asylum Seeker policies will be an issue in the election campaign, they will not be a ‘vote changer’ for the majority of people]
I tend to agree with that but it is this issue in which JGillard has put a public dent in her image, so early on. And it will come back to haunt her and hurt because of her failed handling of the issue every time a boat comes from now on.
When the issue comes up in the future the perception will be that JGillard really stuffed this up.
Confessions @ 2651
[who exactly is the mandatory filter pitched at?]
from the beginning it has been the baby of rheright-wing Christian lobby – the ACL and others. Conroy is thick with them. The extra dimension now would be Gillard trying to neutralize her atheism with that demographic by sticking with Conroy’s crock. One of the other Christian nutjob groups came out yesterday congratulating Gillard on endorsing the policy, so it’s working so far, if that’s the right expression. Fully sick.
TP. JG has not stuffed this up. She has done what she intended. She walked on the wild side of the issue, and has implanted in the minds of those focused in this way, that she will be tough as required. Whereas, prior to this the impression was that the matter was out of control in Labor’s hands. I see this as a gain for her not a loss.
Darn, 2671,
I feel the same. Used to read his posts with interest, but is now on the ‘scroll past’ list. Shame really.
[Yo ho ho. Labor will win, question is how well?]
[not well me thinks Victoria.]
Well, if asylum seekers dominate the campain (which as the the Big Ship noted @2672 above, is unlikey), I can’t see the ALP winning big.
Big Ship, interesting that IR is only 2%. Does that mean an “Abbott will bring back Workchoices” line won’t bite too hard? Or maybe any concern about Workchoices is buried inside the 38% economic management.
Just looked at betting markets, Labor has tightened a bit other the last few days, now priced at 1.22 to 1.25. By comparison, Labor was at about 1.29 on the morning of the last election.
my say@2620
Ah, yes the standard accusation from the ‘Look at the Emperor’s beautiful new clothes’ yes-persons when someone isn’t in 110% lock-step with a Labor policy. Sigh.
If the Government doesn’t want to do anything about AGW then let them say so, as the Libs/Nat have, instead of wasting millions/billions on token schemes of little to no value. That will only turn people off taking action in the long run, even if it doesn’t make things worse, as the two previous ETSs would have done, by adding to people’s suspicions that the skeptics might be right.
Is Tony Abbott the only Liberal leader of this Parliament who hasnt had polling taken by major companies comparing his leadership to other main contenders in the Party as occurred with Nelson and Turnbull?
The Big Ship
*grins wryly*
7% for global warming?
We are doomed.
Big Ship went:
[The issues of most importance to voters in their decision as to who they will vote for in the coming Federal Election, taken from some omnibus opinion polling done last week for the organisation I work for, in order of importance are:]
If it’s OK to answer, could I ask if that was phone, field or panel?
Has the Coalition announced its policy on the internet filter?
Yes, it is “the economy, stupid”.
Labor has to hammer that that and Work Choices and ignore the minor issues.
Casll an election now.
Possum over at Pollytics has his usual Friday Betting Market post, and it makes for interesting reading, with the first marginal seat betting odds now published by BetFair.
The smart money is on the move, it would seem, with the ALP odds shortening down to $1.25, or less, and the Coalition blowing out to $4.00 and over. The implied probability (based on the all markets average) of an ALP victory has now climbed to 76.4%
These current betting odds seem eerily like the odds on the Friday just before the last Federal Election in November 2007, when Sportsbet had the ALP at $1.20 and the Coalition at $4.50 and Centrebet had the ALP also at $1.20 and the Coalition at $4.30, and that was the farthest apart the odds were during the entire year of 2007, so Abbott is already plumbing betting odds depths that Howard didn’t reach until literally the day before the 2007 Poll.
Interestingly at BetFair, Eden-Monaro, the alleged ‘bellweather’ Federal seat shows the ALP at $1.21 to win and the Coalition at $2.10 …. as goes Eden-Monaro, so goes the nation, at least since 1972.
Possum @ 2687 – online panel, 2 weeks aggregated results.
Yo ho ho
Your ‘Labor MP’ was feeding you code for ‘We want to curry favor with the Christian wowser demographic even though we know they are mad, and even though we know the filter doesn’t address their concerns anyway.’
Thomas Paine@2662
According to The Age’s Tony Wright speaking on ABC 891 this was a Rudd thought bubble that was stalled by the kitchen cabinet because it might cause more domestic problems than it solved and they didn’t think they could get the neighbours to sign up it in the limited time before the election.
[Yo ho ho
Your ‘Labor MP’ was feeding you code for ‘We want to curry favor with the Christian wowser demographic even though we know they are mad, and even though we know the filter doesn’t address their concerns anyway.’]
Don’t disagree JV. I always find it amazing how much influence the Christian wowsers have.
This is the unloseable election for JGillard. She can win even sitting saying nothing for a month, the honeymoon will carry her over the line. Without that honeymoon I think she would end up struggling very badly.
What on earth does that mean?
A “Rudd thought-bubble”? Did he announce it? I don’t think he did.
The “kitchen-cabinet” stalled it because there wasn’t enough time- and then they announced it later when there was even less time?
Does not compute.
jv: Yes, i agree the filter was a sop to the christian lobby. But who in voter land is it aimed at? I can’t believe it’s a policy issue that will win more votes than it has the potential to lose.
Qute a melodramatic headline on SMH online…
[Abbott smells blood and attacks Gillard ‘spin’ on Timor solution
If Prime Minister Julia Gillard is serious about offshore processing of asylum seekers she should pick up the phone and call Nauru, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says.
Mr Abbott said today the Prime Minister was desperately trying to spin her way out of trouble after prematurely announcing a refugee processing centre could be built in East Timor.
When the Liberal leader vowed to reintroduce offshore processing earlier this year he did not name possible countries that could host a facility.
But he is now suggesting Nauru is an option.
“Shortly after I made that announcement {in May}, Nauru said that they’ve already got an Australian-built detention facility on the island,” Mr Abbott told ABC Radio.
“They’d be happy to rehost one of these centres.”
Mr Abbott said if Ms Gillard was serious about offshore processing she should “put in a phone call to Nauru”.
He defended his decision not to name countries earlier.
“You can’t have these sorts of negotiations from opposition,” he said.]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-smells-blood-and-attacks-gillard-spin-on-timor-solution-20100709-102wo.html
[ But who in voter land is it aimed at? ]
Technically ignorant mums and dads I would hazard a guess, you know the ones that leave their wireless unsecured because they either can’t work out how to secure it, or didn’t realise you could and should do such a thing.
But they did announce it. And apparently in such haste that didn’t even have time to first talk to neighbours most affected, especially the Prime Minister of Timor Leste, the President of Indonesian, the Prime Minister of NZ, or it seems from the decidedly luke warm comments made by a UNHCR rep being aired today, that body either.