Morgan marginal seats polling

Yesterday’s Queensland marginal seat polling from Roy Morgan turns out to have been a teaser for today’s full suite, which also targets four seats each from New South Wales and Western Australia as well as one each from Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. With samples of 200 each, the electorate-level results are of little utility, but where results from four seats are available from a particular state we can combine them to get a meaningful picture from a margin-of-error of about 3.5 per cent. The swing of 4.8 per cent to the Liberal National Party in Queensland has not been borne out elsewhere: the four New South Wales seats collectively show a 1.0 per cent swing to Labor, while Western Australia produces an essentially status quo result with a 0.2 per cent swing to the Liberals. The single-seat polling for the other three states is less useful, but for what it’s worth the result from Hindmarsh in South Australia sits well with this morning’s Advertiser poll. Taken in their entirety, the results point to no swing at all from 2007.

ALP 2PP
2007 POLL SWING
Macarthur 50.1 38.5 -11.6
Robertson 50.1 48.5 -1.6
Eden-Monaro 52.3 59 6.7
Macquarie 50.1 60.5 10.4
NSW SEATS 1.0
Hasluck 51 50 -1.0
Brand 56.1 54.5 -1.6
Perth 58.1 57 -1.1
Fremantle 59.15 62 2.9
WA SEATS -0.2
Flynn 52.3 45 -7.3
Longman 51.7 43.5 -8.2
Dawson 52.4 49 -3.4
Leichhardt 54.1 54 -0.1
QLD SEATS -4.8
Corangamite (Vic) 50.85 55.5 4.7
Hindmarsh (SA) 55.05 56.5 1.5
Bass (Tas) 51 62.5 11.5
ALL SEATS 0.1

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,357 comments on “Morgan marginal seats polling”

  1. Gusface

    No just the magic touch that peeps as diverse as Mal T Julia G and Kevin R decide to follow moi

    You must be a deft hand with a flute, are you?

  2. [1139
    bob1234

    Watch the Green vote soar when Julia pulls Labor to the right on asylum seekers]

    Don’t be too sure, bob. Julia has the ability to walk and chew gum at the same time. But in any case, I will be watching for both the Green vote and the Liberal vote to plummet when Labor puts together a post-Kev Climate Change policy.

  3. Frank Calabrese,

    Just checked my e-mails before bed and noticed you accepted me as a facebook friend.

    See you later. Bed for me now.

  4. Not everybody can go chase the redneck vote, one will have to court the left vote and would probably end up a coalition partner in any govt.

  5. 1154

    No just vote for the Greens and persuade enough others to so they become a major party. It would make Australia a better place.

  6. It would be fascinating to see what would happen if Turnbull were Opposition leader and he had the Labor/Liberal agreed ETS as his policy. That would be quite a strong position.

    I wont happen of course. It will take the Libs far too long to work out they cannot win with Abbott.

  7. [1149
    jaundiced view

    briefly

    Not sure of the meaning of your poll figure –]

    Most people think the Liberals have a better A-S policy than Labor and/or are better qualified to handle A-S issues….depressing. The voters seem to like razor wire, indefinite detention, temporary protection visas, banishment to Nauru, the oppressive treatment of children. They approve being lied to about the sinking of boats. They want to punish illegal arrivals.

    They interpret a failure to be tough on border protection as being weak on national defense – a cardinal political sin. This is the situation. It would certainly be better for everyone if voters did not feel like this. But they do, thanks to a series of opportunist positions taken from the days of Paul Keating onwards. That is the long and the short of it. We can declaim about the injustice and cruelty of it all, but no-one is really going to be moved.

    There is no chance for a bi-partisan policy that is based on the humanitarian treatment of boat-people. None. So the only thing left is for Labor to out-gun the Liberals. It is very simple.

  8. [Not everybody can go chase the redneck vote, one will have to court the left vote and would probably end up a coalition partner in any govt]

    It seems highly unlikely that any self respecting left wing party would climb into bed with a bunch of rednecks just for political purposes.

  9. Tomorrow’s OO:

    # The Australian australian

    PM to send back boatpeople: HUNDREDS of Afghan and Sri Lankan asylum-seekers are likely to be sent home under Juli… http://bit.ly/8ZjIpz 9 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Barnett’s battles with Canberra win support: COLIN Barnett is strengthening his grip on power in the west. http://bit.ly/d7MdKC 9 minutes ago via twitterfeed

  10. [1163
    Darn

    Not everybody can go chase the redneck vote, one will have to court the left vote and would probably end up a coalition partner in any govt

    It seems highly unlikely that any self respecting left wing party would climb into bed with a bunch of rednecks just for political purposes.]

    More than two-thirds of voters – including many non rednecks – prefer the Liberals’ position on A-S. This is a serious issue for Labor, made more difficult by a series of contradictory moves by Kev. What should Labor do? Cede the issue to the Liberals for good? The firmness of opinions is starting to resemble the debates on State Aid in the 1960’s.

  11. It will take the Libs far too long to work out they cannot win with Abbott.

    He just got he PM’s scalp, how many in opposition have managed that? Ever?

    Don’t kid yourself and make believe that it was his own doing. MT and Nelson couldn’t manage anything against rudd. Abbott gets in and PM is worn down to the point his own party will knife him in, what? 6 months?

    JG’s in a lot of trouble if we’re honest.

  12. [PM to send back boatpeople: ]

    Capitulation No.2 No 3 will on the ETS – here we have no strategy but JGillard’s personal position as none of this is necessary. Rudd was going to win comfortably against Abbott, and Gillard would get the honeymoon boost to give a larger victory, this was totally unnecessary.

    Enjoy the new Liberal Light Party with the new leader Julia Howard.

    night, late*

  13. [JG’s in a lot of trouble if we’re honest.]

    Wonder how many pissed Greens are going to preference the Libs in total exasperation.

  14. Rudd was going to win comfortably against Abbott

    this is what 12 year old’s call : teh lulz

    JG cum JH isn’t going to out right wing abbott either…
    Her only hope is to scare people all the way to greens then hope for the preferences.

  15. [Don’t kid yourself and make believe that it was his own doing. ]

    Hmm but according to Possums Rudd’s polls were on the improve. And in reality come election time he was really never at any chance of losing. This is the madness of tossing away a perfectly good PM for the sake of grabbing power.

    Abbott only had effect in so much as the media made it their business to ignore the total insanity of his and Barnaby’s statements one moment to the next not to mention the negative media saturation.

    All I can say she is lucky it is Abbott and not Turnbull.

  16. Thomas Paine@1168

    PM to send back boatpeople:

    Capitulation No.2 No 3 will on the ETS – here we have no strategy but JGillard’s personal position as none of this is necessary. Rudd was going to win comfortably against Abbott, and Gillard would get the honeymoon boost to give a larger victory, this was totally unnecessary.

    Enjoy the new Liberal Light Party with the new leader Julia Howard.

    night, late*

    Nice try at twisting the story – it ssatys those who are NOT granted Refugee status.

    from the article:

    HUNDREDS of Afghan and Sri Lankan asylum-seekers are likely to be sent home under Julia Gillard’s tough policy agenda to deter boatpeople.

    As the Prime Minister prepared to unveil a new approach to tackling the issue this week – possibly including a resumption to the processing of Sri Lankan boatpeople – The Australian understands officials are working on a pact with Afghanistan over returning asylum-seekers.

    It is believed the agreement, which is not expected to be included in this week’s announcement, would involve assurances from Kabul guaranteeing the safety of failed asylum-seekers.

    Although up to 60 per cent of Afghan asylum-seekers have had their claims rejected, only two have been returned home since the surge in boatpeople started in late 2008.

    Now stop whinging and go start that political party.

  17. [JG’s in a lot of trouble if we’re honest]

    Oh come now Alfred. Tony Abbott would kill to be the kind of “trouble” Julia Gillard is in.

    Abbott is a one trick pony trying to sell an unsellable tax policy. He is unelectable.

  18. Labor has no right to my vote, and I wont give to them because some adulate her.

    Though I think Labor is going to be floating to the right under Gillard and be a shadow Liberal Party. Maybe support the Greens.

    As others have noted elsewhere on other blogs. It might be the best thing if Gillard loses so that the Labor Party can reset and not travel Gillard’s path.

  19. It all seems to come down to where you are going with your second preference Thomas .

    Gillard or Abbott – which is it?

  20. I know that Labor supporters overwhelmingly inhabit this blog, and differing positions are routinely attacked. I can understand Scorpios exasperation at the visceral hatred and Rudd bad meme being propagated by so many for the sake of supporting their positions, so much so he wonders if she abandon voting Labor. If I have that right.

    Yes the second preference. That is what I will be deciding between now and the election. If JGillard looks a like a sickly Liberal then it would better the Labor party reset. So it is up to her policies from hereon.

    But I can say this – four women at work who voted Labor, had a heated discussion about Gillard last friday, and they weren’t arguing between themselves. They have switched, as has my wife and her family.

  21. Thomas Paine@1183

    I know that Labor supporters overwhelmingly inhabit this blog, and differing positions are routinely attacked. I can understand Scorpios exasperation at the visceral hatred and Rudd bad meme being propagated by so many for the sake of supporting their positions, so much so he wonders if she abandon voting Labor. If I have that right.

    Yes the second preference. That is what I will be deciding between now and the election. If JGillard looks a like a sickly Liberal then it would better the Labor party reset. So it is up to her policies from hereon.

    But I can say this – four women at work who voted Labor, had a heated discussion about Gillard last friday, and they weren’t arguing between themselves. They have switched, as has my wife and her family.

    Well only 490 odd people to go before you can start your new Party.

    Either put up or Shut Up.

  22. Frank, I understand you are passionate about your Labor Party. And often you are aggressive to other posters.

    I often don’t read your posts, especially after I have posted something you probably wont enjoy. I can say it is mostly my habit now to skip pass what you type because of it, unless I feel in a particularly combative mood.

    I think some bloggers should realise that this is not a Labor blogg. And I can guess why many Liberal & Green lurkers will never post here, for fear of being personally attacked or aggressively dealt with for holding a view different to the majority.

    You would have to think undecided people would be turned off Labor if they spent too much time here when they see some of the intolerant personal stuff.

    Personally I think the status quo should have its cage rattled more often so that prevailing and uncritical views are challenged or gainsaid more often. I used to be like that of course, but learning is a journey.

  23. Thomas Paine@1186

    Frank, I understand you are passionate about your Labor Party. And often you are aggressive to other posters.

    I often don’t read your posts, especially after I have posted something you probably wont enjoy. I can say it is mostly my habit now to skip pass what you type because of it, unless I feel in a particularly combative mood.

    I think some bloggers should realise that this is not a Labor blogg. And I can guess why many Liberal & Green lurkers will never post here, for fear of being personally attacked or aggressively dealt with for holding a view different to the majority.

    You would have to think undecided people would be turned off Labor if they spent too much time here when they see some of the intolerant personal stuff.

    Personally I think the status quo should have its cage rattled more often so that prevailing and uncritical views are challenged or gainsaid more often. I used to be like that of course, but learning is a journey.

    Like I said stop standing on the sidelines and and sniping and put your money where your mouth is – Start your own political party.

    But I reckon you haven’t got the balls to do so.

  24. I’m beginning to wonder why we bothered to vote out Howard.

    [FEDERAL Cabinet is today expected to endorse a shift to the right on asylum seeker policy when it decides whether to overturn a ban it has in place on processing Sri Lankan asylum seekers.

    It will consider a new direction on border protection, which senior ministers hint could involve deals with Indonesia and Malaysia the countries where asylum seekers board the boats.

    Labor insiders say the asylum seeker issue has been costing Labor more votes than the contentious mining tax row Prime Minister Julia Gillard solved last week.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/getting-tough-on-boat-people/story-e6frea8c-1225887777149

  25. One small relief to the long suffering citizenry of NSW…
    [THE NSW upper house MP, Sylvia Hale, has failed in her bid to contest the seat of Marrickville for the Greens after the deputy mayor of Marrickville, Fiona Byrne, beat her in a preselection ballot.

    Ms Hale has already announced she will not recontest her upper house seat at next year’s state election.

    But she surprised many by putting up her hand for Marrickville which, along with Balmain, is one of two inner-city seats the Greens believe they have a good chance of stealing from Labor next March.

    Only one vote separated Ms Byrne and Ms Hale in the ballot which was won 14 votes to 13.

    Marrickville is held by the deputy premier and health minister, Carmel Tebbutt, with a margin of 7.5 per cent.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/greens-reject-hale-for-marrickville-20100704-zvxt.html

  26. [ I’m beginning to wonder why we bothered to vote out Howard.

    I doubt that you did.]

    I certainly did. If Howie was leader of the ALP, I think most of you would vote for him.

  27. [I certainly did. If Howie was leader of the ALP, I think most of you would vote for him.]

    Yeah, sure, Workchoices was so popular with average Australians.

  28. [If Howie was leader of the ALP, I think most of you would vote for him.]

    It would depend on the policies of the respective party rather than the leader. If you’re looking for a party who will display a more open policy to boat arrivals you should look to the Greens and then decide which policy between the ALP and Liberal Party is marginally better.

    The ALP has tried a more humane approach to the treatment of asylum seekers under Rudd and it was looking like it may cost them government. Whilst the ideal situation is that a party would put principle above their own electoral survival this is naive. Howard even watered down his own holy grail of WorkChoices somewhat in an effort to save his skin.

    Which party, across the board, best represents your interests and presents a better future for the country? If you believe that’s the Liberal Party so be it.

  29. [I certainly did. If Howie was leader of the ALP, I think most of you would vote for him.]

    Diog, i wouldnt vote for you if you are the leader of the ALP. have you finalised the arrangement to stay overdere forever? 😛

  30. [More than two-thirds of voters – including many non rednecks – prefer the Liberals’ position on A-S.]

    Which poll are you basing this claim on? The last Newspoll I can see that explicitly asks this question was in April when 44% said LNP was preferred party irt A-S.

    btw anyone notice the guy proposing marriage in front of Gillard and Brumby at Marysville?

  31. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/05/2944581.htm?section=justin

    Fun and games with a serious edge during the election:

    [Gruen team to tackle election

    The Gruen Transfer team has set itself the task of decoding the showbusiness strategies used by politicians during the upcoming federal election.

    ABC1’s hit show about advertising is to be relaunched as The Gruen Nation, a series of 45-minute specials which will be broadcast during the election campaign.

    Political insiders and campaign veterans will join host Wil Anderson and regular guest Todd Sampson and Russel Howcroft to dissect each week’s events.

    “If the ABC is the national broadcaster, then Gruen Nation is the national bullshit detector,” Anderson said.]

  32. [It would be fascinating to see what would happen if Turnbull were Opposition leader and he had the Labor/Liberal agreed ETS as his policy. That would be quite a strong position.]

    Thomas@1160 – the ETS negotiated by Turnbull gave too many concessions to the polluters. It ended up a dog’;s breakfast so was probably good that it was dropped. Turnbull will never give the Greens what they want because he won’t go against his business mates, Goldman Sachs, who stood to make a killing under the negotiated ETS.
    Look at Turnbull’s history. He is not the white knight you imagine him to be just because he crossed the floor of Parliament.

    I’m hoping that Labor will come up with something worthwhile which can then be negotiated with the Greens through the next Senate. If the Greens kowtow to Abbott they won’t get my preference in the Senate.

  33. If Gillard adopts this new stance for Labor then I am going to find it very hard to vote for her. I am so disappointed and disillusioned by this.

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