Numerous pollsters, some previously unknown, have swung quickly into action to record a very rosy view of Labor’s prospects under Julia Gillard. Nielsen surveyed 993 respondents on Thursday night and found Labor’s primary vote roaring back to 47 per cent, decimating the Greens – down seven points to 8 per cent – and delivering them a thumping 55-45 two-party lead. The Coalition primary vote has nonetheless held up: at 42 per cent, it is only down one point on the famous 53-47 poll of June 6. Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 55 per cent to 34 per cent, widening the gap achieved by Rudd in his last poll from ten points to 21. Against Kevin Rudd, she scores a not overwhelming lead of 44 per cent to 36 per cent: Rudd himself records slightly improved personal ratings, approval up two to 43 per cent and disapproval down five to 47 per cent. Tony Abbott is for some reason down on both approval (one point to 40 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 46 per cent). UPDATE: Full results courtesy of Possum here. Some have pointed that there are some very curious results in the statewide breakdowns, but this provides no statistical reason to doubt the overall result within the margin-of-error. Self-identified Greens preferences have gone from 68-32 to Labor to 81-19, although this is off a tiny sample of Greens voters.
Galaxy produces a more modest headline figure of 52-48 in a survey of 800 respondents, also conducted yesterday. This was achieved off a 41 per cent primary vote, making it a lot more solid than the 52-48 Rudd achieved his final Newspoll, which was based on 35 per cent plus a hypothetical preference share. No further primary vote figures at this stage, but it’s safe to say that here too Labor has recovered a lot of soft Greens votes. The margin of error on the poll is about 3.5 per cent. Opinion is evenly divided on the leadership coup – 45 per cent support, 48 per cent oppose – but most would prefer a full term to an early election, 36 per cent to 59 per cent. Head-to-head questions on leaders’ personal attributes produce consistently huge leads for Gillard (UPDATE: Possum reports primary votes of 42 per cent for the Coalition and 11 per cent for the Greens).
Channel Nine also had a poll conducted by McCrindle Research, who Possum rates “not cut for politics”. Nonetheless, their figures are in the ballpark of the others: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party, with 42.7 per cent of the primary vote against 38.8 per cent for the Coalition and 12.1 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard holds a lead as preferred prime minister of 64.8-35.2, the undecided evidently having been excluded. Sixty-three per cent believed she could “understand the needs of Australian mothers”.
Finally, market research company CoreData have produced a hugely dubious poll of 2500 people conducted “at 11am yesterday”, which has Labor on 29.5 per cent and “Liberal” on 42 per cent. This was primarily because no fewer than 21 per cent of respondents would not vote for Labor “because they did not feel that they had elected Julia Gillard”. Possum is familiar with the company, and says the sample would come “from their online panel, probably not perfectly balanced in the demographics and probably not a great fit for instapolitics”.
We’ve also had today the forlorn spectacle of the final Morgan poll conducted on Rudd’s watch. The face-to-face poll of 887 respondents from last weekend had Labor’s two-party lead widening from 51.5-48.5 to 53-47, with Labor up three points to 41 per cent at the expense of the Greens (down half a point to 12.5 per cent) and others (down 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent).
Morgan has also run one of their small-sample state polls for Victoria, this one culled from various phone polls conducted since the start of the month for a total of 430 respondents. It has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 two-party lead, from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 38 per cent Liberal, 13.5 per cent Greens, 3 per cent Family First and 7.5 per cent others.
UPDATE: Galaxy offers a full set of results, which puzzlingly offers us separate figures for Thursday and Friday. I’m not clear whether the previously published results were a combination of the two, or if they’re springing a new set of polling on us. In either case, the results for the two days are identical in every respect except that the Greens were a point higher on 12 per cent on Friday, and others a point lower on 5 per cent. Lots of further questions on attitudes to the coup and future government priorities, with 52 per cent believing Labor’s election prospects have now improved against 38 per cent who disagree.
Oh Geoff, you make Truthy look smart. Of course, the 55/45 means Abbott is AHEAD and will win the election. Our mistake
Mr Squiggle, marching in blind lockstep with your leader is not a healthy attitude for a party. The Liberals’ should not be proud of this “group think” mentality.
Typical Liberal misogyny. It wasn’t “hiding behind a skirt” when the SA Libs elected Isobel Redmond when things got tough with them though was it?
It’s not our fault we don’t have a “better in the kitchen” attitude toward women, as so many of your supporters have eloquently demonstrated online in the past few days…
OzPol – Kuhn’s book was one of the key texts when I did General Philosophy at Sydney Uni, which is probably why I’ve never read it. Funny that, two decades later, I’ve finally got quite interested in Hegel, Kant, Nietzsche etc. Will dip back into Kuhn.
I suppose that, at the end of the day, journalists are lie groupies. In return for the supporting the PM they want a bit of love and appreciation. They don’t get it and all hell breaks loose – they realise they’re just spectators watching the circus roll through town.
ShowsOn
i watched with horror the result of Howard’s refugee “solution”, but it did reduce the numbers of AS coming here via boats and calmed the fear-mongers and refugee haters down no-end.
So the Scragger’s No 1 ticketholder has kicked the big one through the goal posts of life…
Excellent to see Abbott squirming back on 34% PPM. Also v. entertaining to see Bob Brown not quite knowing which way to go…
Still, here are some questions why I am already feeling a bit over it.
(1) Why is she going to wait on a consensus before doing anything about AGW? Is this a trick to do nothing because she knows perfectly well there will never, ever be a consensus until we are all so cooked it will be too late?
(2) Why is she resiling from any numbers in the population debate? Is it because she is squibbing the issue? She must know that the numbers are critical because the single most important element in our eventual population is the immigration rate.
(3) What is in it for the Mighty Hawks?
[BY comparison, ALP’s track record on this is very visible and fresh in the memory:
Carmen lawrence, KK, Anna Bligh, Joan Krner. ]
I have no idea why you put Bligh in there. Peter Beattie RETIRED.
And, not to mention, won in her own right!
Answer? Clue: It’s something she shares in common with the other examples… and with just over half of the nation’s population.
[i watched with horror the result of Howard’s refugee “solution”, but it did reduce the numbers of AS coming here via boats]
No, what it did is simply exclude the boats that tried to come to Australia from the statistics, because they were counted as going to Naru instead.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/10/19/push-vs-pull-asylum-seeker-numbers-and-statistics/
[and calmed the fear-mongers and refugee haters down no-end.]
And wasted $1 billion.
As others have mentioned, isn’t Julia’s poll support going to firm up at least a few points over the next few weeks as die-hard kev loyalists and the we-didn’t-elect-her-as-PM brigade get over their feelings about the transition and support her as well. I know it only took me a few minutes to get over the shock. But there are far more empathetic individuals out there.
Mr Squiggle
Time doesn’t change hard facts, or delete their existence; and the Liberals core demographic, GenBlue, do remember it, as do many Boomers who reared by WW II vet parents & WW I vet grandparents.
You, like Abbott, try to disparage an ALP action – with the intention of luring voters to your side – which is, historically, more common (& better known) on the Tory side of politics, hoping voters don’t remember – or google!
You could get away with it when historical accuracy lay in weighty tomes in major libraries (or Murdoch papers), not in a few seconds’ google and “cut & paste” to blogs, and there’s no way posters like me (& a few others here) are going to let you or your party bosses & their acolyte journos get away with it.
Information & communication paradigms have changed, Matey. Live with that!
PS And, for your own sanity, read Tom Kuhn!
[Typical Liberal misogyny. It wasn’t “hiding behind a skirt” when the SA Libs elected Isobel Redmond when things got tough with them though was it?]
Redmond only won because the partryoom refused to endorse either Chapman on Martin Hamilton-Smith.
Is there an example of “I didn’t vote for them!” actually costing a leader the election?
While it might remove the incumbency value of the government a little, I can’t find any examples where it was an issue beyond the initial succession. Most successors tend to lose the following election due to the lifespan of the government, or the crippling events that led to the predecessor leaving (eg massive corruption)
The Liberals actually went to her, because they wanted to counter Chapman’s “fresh appeal” from the Right.
TPP is going to improve at least 2-3 % over the campaign. As it would have with Rudd really. I would like to say thank you Tony Abbott for your ‘personal qualities’. Special commendation to the Bishops, Chrissy Pine and all the other front bench Liberal ‘talent’.
Oz Pol – fair enough, some people are more influenced by History than current circumstances, after all lessons are learnt from the past. The Libs need to work with that, not rail against it.
For me, I was in Kindergarten when Gorton was PM. My expereinces under Howard have done more to inform my thinking on Politics in 2010 than reading books on Gorton/McMahon.
Pebbles/Shows On:
Once again, you miss my point. (possible my fault, if so sorry).
There is a fundamental difference between executing a Prime Minister/Premier and simply changing opposition leaders who have never faced an election.
Do you really see no difference between the two? If so, Abbott’s chances at the next election are higher than I thought.
(1) Die-hard Kev loyalists were not going to go the Coalition. The polling suggests that have obviously not gone to the Greens. How many were there? If any, my bet is that they stayed with Lab in the polling. So, nothing extra for Gillard from that source.
(2) The we-didn’t-vote-for-her crowd are apparently mostly singing from the Lib song sheet. They appear now to have twigged that they didn’t elect Abbott, Nelson or Turnbull either.
my say: smilies and so on are here:
http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies
[There is a fundamental difference between executing a Prime Minister/Premier and simply changing opposition leaders who have never faced an election.]
This ‘issue’ will be consigned to the dustbin of history in two weeks flat.
Mr Squiggle 1315
I understand that. This is why it won’t be long until an election. August is a reasonable bet.
[My expereinces under Howard have done more to inform my thinking on Politics in 2010]
Same here. Productivity went through the floor, private debt went to the highest levels on record, money (as a proportion of GDP) was cut from health and education, telecommunications was turned into a private monopoly, the government attacked the wages and conditions of the most vulnerable workers while massively regulating I.R. through WorkChoices, carbon free energy production declined from 6% in 1996 to 4% in 2007, the government refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol, Howard sacked 6 ministers in his first term alone, and another 2 cabinet ministers (Santoro and Campbell) in his last term.
NICO – agree. One thing that people keep forgetting is that Rudd was a very good campaigner. Being out on the stump seemed to focus his mind (or at least his language).
BOERWAR – agree category 1 probably fairly small. 2 probably a bit larger.
Maybe I should have created a category 3 of people who want Julia to show them how she’ll perform before they shift into the labor camp
Shows on #1307
Our governments’ wouldn’t have to waste billions to calm the fear-mongers and refugee haters down no-end if Howard hadn’t played on that fear and hatred for base political gain – and probably because his Australia First member father hadn’t predisposed him to such tactics.
Abbott is playing the same base political game for the same base reasons – retaining/ winning power. Were the Libs to elect a more honourable leader – Turnbull, or Hockey, whose father, a Palestine refugee, would not have been given refuge under Howard’s contemptible policy – we might stop wasting billions playing on the some Australians fear & loathing.
Quite frankly, I’m appalled that taxpayer billions that could be spent positively – to relieve homelessness, build infrastructure, improve the health system etc – are wasted pandering to the fear & hatred of a few we know only too well!
[There is a fundamental difference between executing a Prime Minister/Premier and simply changing opposition leaders who have never faced an election.]
And you miss my point. There is a difference between what happened last week – Rudd was sacked against his will – and Anna Bligh becoming Premier because Peter Beattie retired from politics voluntarily after 9 years in the job.
[Were the Libs to elect a more honourable leader – Turnbull, or Hockey, whose father, a Palestine refugee, would not have been given refuge under Howard’s contemptible policy]
Turnbull didn’t think twice about running on refugees during the Oceanic Viking saga. It was the only issue he was getting any traction on, and it seems he had to do it to keep the Right onside (which of course in the end didn’t save his leadership).
Shows On
[Productivity went through the floor] I presume not so in the case of mining companies, they’re worth taxing pretty hard aren’t they? If productivity fell so low, why did we have uninterrupted growth for so long
[Private debt highest levels:] Not very private if you think you should be in control of it. Having a government in control of private debt levels sounds like asking for a four-sided triangle.
[Money was cut from health and education] So what? its sounds like your problem is with health and education companies, not the government.
[Telecoms] hard to associate telecoms with essential government services these days. Perhaps back in the 1950s, but we are in the technology age now, so please move up a bit
uh oh ! my lunch has arrived…..catch you up later
OPT
[Were the Libs to elect a more honourable leader – Turnbull, or Hockey, whose father, a Palestine refugee, would not have been given refuge under Howard’s contemptible policy]
Has anybody shamed Hockey by referencing this and asking his view of the Liberal
policyapproach to AS?[contemptible policy
Has anybody shamed Hockey by referencing this and asking his view of the Liberal policy approach to AS?]
i have thought about this a lot his joes named shortened from something else
[I presume not so in the case of mining companies, they’re worth taxing pretty hard aren’t they? If productivity fell so low, why did we have uninterrupted growth for so long]
Because productivity determines future growth, not existing growth. Productivity means economic production per unit of work done. The challenge is to make more valuable goods and services for the same amount of work. The best ways this can be achieved is by creating a more educated workforce that is able to utilise new technologies. Which demonstrates that the Howard government’s cutting of education funding and re-regulation of the job market was insane on two counts.
[Not very private if you think you should be in control of it. Having a government in control of private debt levels sounds like asking for a four-sided triangle.]
Your failure to understand economics means you don’t realise that the Howard government traded public debt for private debt. If you want to know what happens when there is too much private debt, have a look at the credit crisis in the United States where businesses still can’t get loans.
[So what? its sounds like your problem is with health and education companies, not the government.]
LOL! You don’t think Governments cutting investment in health and education is an issue that concerns the government! That’s hilarious.
[hard to associate telecoms with essential government services these days. Perhaps back in the 1950s, but we are in the technology age now, so please move up a bit]
This just demonstrates how short sighted you are. You let the ideology of privatising everything get in the way of the best policy, which is to have a highly competitive telecommunications sector that isn’t held hostage by a private monopoly that was created by the Howard government.
[uh oh ! my lunch has arrived…..catch you up later]
How convenient, someone challenges your vision of the Howard government utopia, so you say you need to leave!
my say
The family’s original name was Hokeidonian
Laocoon
http://www.joehockey.com/mediahub/transcriptDetail.aspx?prID=994
[But you’ve got to be a bit more specific if you expect me to backtrack or backflip.]
No rosa, it wasn’t a gotcha question. Just interested in where you stood that’s all.
Hockey:
[It is a bipartisan view in politics that we will have a refugee program of around 12,000 per year. Now, most of those people come through Melbourne Airport and Sydney Airport and don’t have the means to get here. ]
WHAT THE HELL? “…most of those people come through Melbourne Airport and Sydney Airport and don’t have the means to get here.” How don’t they have the means to get here if they can come here by plane?
Thanks Geoff – I’m back in my box now 🙂
I just hope those Libs crying crocodile tears for Rudd right now will welcome his appointment to cabinet or a posting if he decides to take it. They must surely feel now that he deserves it.
[One thing that people keep forgetting is that Rudd was a very good campaigner. Being out on the stump seemed to focus his mind (or at least his language).]
I agree Rudd was a very good campaigner last time. The problem for him was that he overcooked the language and has had to retract. He couldn’t get away with it this time unfortunately.
PM Gillard & Population Policy
First I fully support this county having a bigger population about 1% of the global population or 60-70 Million
In saying this I think people who push the view that the PM is playing to the redneck community are missing where Gillard is coming from.
The PM represents the seat of Lalor, a growth corridor outer suburban seat with an increasing population of new housing estates.
The PM would be fully aware of the many infrastructure related issues impacting on her community and all the other similar outer suburban seats.
The Infrastructure issues relate to issues of Roads, Public Transport and other important community issues, the PM would have seen the results of rushed planning.
Due to the demographic changes occurring in parts of her seat, the old days of saying o yeah it’s just the West, no need to develop proper infrastructure is only going to course a political backlash.
The PM would know that people are happy to support higher populations but it is very important for the Government to ensure that Infrastructure is developed to meet the demands of the community.
[The PM would know that people are happy to support higher populations but it is very important for the Government to ensure that Infrastructure is developed to meet the demands of the community.]
All talk about infrastructure is pointless if we don’t have a plan to convert all cars to electricity within 10 – 15 years, and outright ban the building of any new coal power stations.
Gillard knows that apart from the business community, who don’t give a rat’s arse for the environmental and social consequences, there is zip support for 70 million population.
ShowsOn Infrastructure is more than just roads, it’s all the things a community needs in order for it to function, Schools are one area that the PM has been very active on.
Boerwar my first sentance was my personal view, if I had not put that in there I suspect some more narrow minded people would see my whole comment as some sort of rednack anti immigration statement.
[
well are very pround of our european name so much so that i am still spelling to people after 43 years.
The the married girls kept and using both names as they love their heritiage so much
well welll joe
Will be interesting to see if Rudd comes back to the front bench so quickly and if he does, what an interesting dynamic that will create for the Oopo.
They have all been oh so sympathetic to the poor poor man for the way he was treated over the last few days. So, if he appears onthe ALP front bench what are they going to do, start ripping into him at any opportunity? You betcha!
But, with Rudd free of the breadth of responsibility of being PM, and installed in something like FA, people like Julie Bishop would do well to be VERy careful about directing questions his way. I’d think that Rudd would slice,dice, and dispose of the unfortunate Mesma quite comprehensivley. One thing about Rudd that didnt change with his drop in popularity, and thats his ability as a parliamentry performer, and his prodigious capacity to be top of his topic on detail.
That said, i’d have thought he’d want a break for a while.
[ShowsOn Infrastructure is more than just roads, it’s all the things a community needs in order for it to function, ]
All of that is pointless if we can’t figure out a way to produce clean energy instead of being completely addicted to cheap coal and oil.
[Laocoon
Posted Sunday, June 27, 2010 at 1:07 pm | Permalink
my say
[The family’s original name was Hokeidonian]
well are very pround of our european name so much so that i am still spelling to people after 43 years.
The the married girls kept and are using both names as they love their heritiage so much
well welll joe
[…people like Julie Bishop would do well to be VERy careful about directing questions his way. I’d think that Rudd would slice,dice, and dispose of the unfortunate Mesma quite comprehensivley.]
One of the great mysteries of Rudd is that he actually knew how to speak when he was Shadow Foreign Affairs minister, and even leader of the opposition.
[That said, i’d have thought he’d want a break for a while.]
worked to hard as overdoing it not enough sleep
this was very evident after copenhagen
[Posted Sunday, June 27, 2010 at 1:07 pm | Permalink
my say
[The family’s original name was Hokeidonian ]
so where is he exactly from then
Yes ShownOn but in the mean time people in Melbourne’s West are faced each day with a choice between going to work on an overcrowded Train or drive the Car.
This is why when the PM said we need to purse while we develop sustainble Infrastructure which does include increased use of renewable energy
ShownOn I suspect the Prime Ministership wore Rudd down to the point of running on an oil rag