Full results available from Peter Brent at Mumble. Labor’s 52-48 lead is a slight improvement on 51-49 from three weeks ago, and under the circumstances will come as an enormous relief for the Prime Minister. One sting in the tail is that Labor’s primary vote remains steady on a parlous 35 per cent. The Coalition is down one point to 40 per cent and the Greens are on 15 per cent, one point off their record-breaking effort from three weeks ago. The two-point slack has been taken up by “others” on 10 per cent.
Another sting in the tail is that the preferred prime minister rating has swung to Abbott: Rudd is down three points to 46 per cent and Abbott is up four to 37 per cent, which is respectively a personal worst and the best result achieved by a Liberal leader on Rudd’s watch. This is despite the fact that the leaders’ approval ratings are basically unchanged. Kevin Rudd’s approval is steady on 36 per cent and his disapproval is up a point to 55 per cent, while Tony Abbott is respectively up a point to 38 per cent and steady on 49 per cent.
A further question on prospective standard of living produces a neutral result: “improve” and “get worse” are both on 17 per cent, with 65 per cent nominating “stay the same”.
Next cab off the rank: Essential Research, which should be through at about 1pm EST.
UPDATE: Hats off to Dennis Shanahan, who shows he’s not scared of a renewed round of opprobrium from the Laborsphere.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research joins the party by also showing Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, although it gets there by showing a primary vote recovery for Labor (up three to 38 per cent) at the expense of the Greens (down three to 11 per cent), with the Coalition down one to 40 per cent. Again, there’s a sting in the tail for Kevin Rudd – 40 per cent say Labor would have a better chance of winning if they changed leaders, against only 37 per cent who say he is the best person to lead the party to the election. However, the results on this measure are substantially worse for Tony Abbott – 29 per cent and 47 per cent. Kevin Rudd remains preferred prime minister over Abbott by 47 per cent to 30 per cent, and also over Julia Gillard by 36 per cent to 33 per cent. There’s also a very interesting finding on troops in Afghanistan, with 61 per cent saying out troops should withdraw.
[ Middleton would know about Essential but she can’t mention it as it would make her bullcrap story of Labor in big trouble look a bit stupid (just like her)]
This is the problem for the press gallery who assumed Newspoll would be out on Tuesday. They had written their stories and were having a weekend snooze. Then they had no time to write anything else.
john in seats like that the name on the ballot means more than the Party in the case of Paul Neville.
You reckon Labor could do a “Budgie smuggler” advertisement with the “budgie” talking to prove Abbott it is a real dick.
Frank
[Watch Red Kerry spin this to criticise Rudd.
abc730report
John Mendoza speaks with Kerry O’Brien following his resignation #730report 3 minutes ago via web ]
Mendoza will say what just about every other mental health expert is saying around Australia which is that Rudd and Roxon have thrown the mentally unwell under the bus.
Anyone aware of any studies done on the effect of Herd Mentality on political polling? If so, could you supply references?
[Rudd and Roxon have thrown the mentally unwell under the bus.]
Diog, it was Obama.
Diog now it would show some leadership for Dutton and Tone to actually have a great mental health policy.
But that would be asking too much for that lot!
How sad!
Glen
TV advertising for the LNP will be a problem in Qld. They cannot get two messages out to the two very different bases.
So all they can do is re-enforce the negative. Attack Rudd.
This will not work if Labor run a positive campaign based on their achievements.
@ Glen,
I’m pretty heavily involved in Queensland politics, and I can promise you that Paul Neville is just a party hack, he has very little personal following, and he almost lost his seat at the last election. He won because he was a National, but now he’s a Liberal-National, and Queenslanders, especially regional Queenslanders, don’t like free-marketry and privatisation and small government, pretty much everything the Libs stand for.
Ru the only message the Libs/Nats will have is that Rudd = lemon, nothing on policy.
[This will not work if Labor run a positive campaign based on their achievements.]
Rua you know as well as I the only Ads the ALP will have is…
Tone ripped 1b out of Health and Tone will bring back Workchoices.
[SBS says more bad news in polls, no gains and Tone closing in]
Vera – I thought Middleton has the OO and Oakes stories down pat for her piece on SBS tonight. Very bad news for Rudd in the poll, Abbott to win as the underdog. Twiggy having another go at Kev. They’ve all bought the story and they are going to stick with it from now until election.
They cannot be seen to be followers. They have to be the leaders and tell us who we have to elect.
john (825),
The home insulation would have made no difference to Australia’s emissions if Rudd’s CPRS was passed.
Howard started renewables. Rudd has stuffed it up by making solar cells count as five times what they should, which had the double whammy of making solar cells bad for the environment, and stuffing up the renewable energy market.
If Rudd really thought that climate change action was needed, what would he have done in his first year? It’s easy to make such a list. And the fact is that he did nothing.
And what is he doing now? Nothing.
And remember that when Rudd wants to negotiate he will. You can thank for The Greens for the stimulus package.
scorpio – After much posting on Friday I kept quiet on Saturday. If you want an example of a repetitious w*nk fest, just reread Saturday’s postings.
ruawake (838) – so the coal power stations are the future solution for action on climate change? More fantasy from the very extreme right of Australian politics.
Solidarity for what? Why should a progressive support a right wing failure?
Diog,
Are you turning in to Menzies? Visiting the old country to attend Wimbledon and the cricket (Australia v Pakistan) at Lords.
All you’ll need then is to recite, “I did but see her passing by. But, I’ll love her till I die” and you’ll be up for the eyebrow surgery and before you know it 25 years in The Lodge.
Mrs D must be so proud.
If Paul Neville is elected as a member of the Qld State Branch of the Liberal Party how come he will not be able to vote on the Federal leadership of the Liberal Party?
See how messy it can get. 🙂
[ the coal power stations are the future solution for action on climate change? More fantasy from the very extreme right of Australian politics.]
Stop thinking about them as coal companies. They are energy companies, they don’t give a toss where they get the energy as long as they make a profit. It is these companies who can get finance to establish our future energy needs.
If you cannot understand this you really are thick.
MWH,
What have the Greens actuall;y achieve on CC apart from posturing irrelevance.
Most people are interested in solutions. Solutions would be the death knell of the Greens.
GG
I knew Wimbledon was on but I didn’t know the cricket was on. How come we are playing Pakistan at Lords?
I’m certainly not going to either. The two kids wouldn’t be want to go.
Glen
[Diog now it would show some leadership for Dutton and Tone to actually have a great mental health policy.
But that would be asking too much for that lot!
How sad!]
That would definitely be too much to ask for. Even a policy would be something but I’ve seen nothing from the Libs either.
Frank – send Middleton a tweet and tell her about Essential and the 17% gap for PPM between Kev and Abbott.
Tell her Gillard beats Abbott as preferred PM too.
Tell her 72% of Greens won’t vote for Abbott.
thanks
[See how messy it can get.]
I agree Ru a merger of the Libs and Nats only works if it is done nationally.
[Wilson would know a great deal about bashing, I’d guess. You know how he got that nickname ‘iron bar’? It was because he almost beat a man to death in his pub.]
Yep a trouble maker for which Tuckey was cleared of any wrong doing in the courts.
The Finnigans@841,
Did he really say that? I have been wondering all day what Kevin Rudd said in Mandarin. And yes, it is funny and it does rhyme.
GG
“You reckon Labor could do a “Budgie smuggler” advertisement with the “budgie” talking to prove Abbott it is a real dick”
Love this! There has to be a poster in that somewhere!
[You can thank for The Greens for the stimulus package.]
Like I said, you spin like a top.
Diogs,
The last cricket tour of India by Sri Lanka ended rather badly. In the end they tendered the return tour out and the Poms got the gig.
The kids! Plausable denial. You’ve got it made.
Timana Tahu going berserk in Newcastle. Throwing them everywhere (but not for 10 minutes).
Finns:
” Eat your heart out
Elle does the nip slip, showing Dolphin love
Ah, the difference between the popularity of ‘Flipper’ and ‘Flip Flop’! LOL
[regional Queenslanders, don’t like free-marketry and privatisation and small government, pretty much everything the Libs stand for.]
john – didn’t Joyce tell us on Saturday that the Nationals will pick up 5 or more Labor marginals in the election. Is he having himself on? – I hope he is.
MWH – The Greens didn’t give us the stimulus. Labor, Fielding, Xenophon and the 5 Greens voted for it. The Greens alone would not have helped Labor so we can at least thank Fielding for one thing that he passed. Of course he reminds us of it as well and says that he is to be thanked for the stimulus.
So another Green fib to go with the one that if Labor had agreed to the Greens carbon tax we would now have one. 5 votes – not enough!
“Rua you know as well as I the only Ads the ALP will have is…
Tone ripped 1b out of Health and Tone will bring back Workchoices.”
Come on Glen, you at least arent that much of an idiot. Dont belive what i say unles its carefully scripted, PPL over my dead body, We’ll oppose it in opposition and repeal it in Govt, ……..
There will be hard drives FULL of Tony’s best moments in cupboards in the ALP bunker just waiting for the campaign mate. 🙂
But they will certainly use the damage Tony did as a minister against him, dont you worry about that.
GG
[The last cricket tour of India by Sri Lanka ended rather badly. In the end they tendered the return tour out and the Poms got the gig.]
So there is a whole tour of Pakistan vs Australia in the UK. Weird.
Robot,
[Did he really say that? ]
Tian Bu Pa
Di Bu Pa
Zhi Pa Lu Ke Wen Shou Zhong Kuo Hua
@MWH
You think Steve Fielding and the Greens would agree on the same climate change policy?
In regards to the rest of the “arguments”, to use the word generously, they are the same ones I addressed in my last post.
@TheTruthHurts
I actually read that case, dipshit, and he had his mates hold down the man while he beat him repeatedly with a length of steel cable. And he was convicted of assault, and refused appeal.
Diogs,
Not really.
There have been quite a few games in Sharjah over the years. There’s the tri nation tours of Australia for the One day internationals. And, Australia played Ghana in South Africa the other night in the soccer.
My News report For the Day:
Mass Hysteria with Selective Amnesia Strikes Downunder!
June 21, 2010
A small but select group of Australian journalists have been stricken by a debilitating case of a hitherto unknown psychological disorder, believed to have been triggered by opinion polls that did not meld with their collective predictions.
The journalists, all of the political persuasion, have developed alarming psychotic symptoms in which each has broken from reality. Doctors say the psychosis exhibits as an inability to accept the reality of the opinion polls, along with the creation of fantasy scenarios that have no bearing in fact.
Treatment, doctors assert, is difficult since it is a collective form of hysteria, where each uses the statements of the others as a reinforcement of their own psychosis.
Health dept sources say they are hoping the hysteria will subside on its own as the medication required does have serious side-effects. A healing group is scheduled for after the upcoming election, once the delusions become apparently incorrect.
John,
[The Nationals are looking shaky here in Queensland, which is the only place they’re powerful.]
Funny you should say that because I was really surprised on tonight’s Win News to see a local Lib supporter being presented as “a local LNP spokesperson” and he was having a big old sound-off about the redistribution that split Flynn Off from mostly, Capricornia.
Barnaby Joyce got an extended run tonight and this has led me to think that the Fed Libs & Nats are very doubtful of their chances of picking up Flynn from Labor.
I think the Queensland Libs and Nats badly underestimated the confusion being felt in the electorate about exactly what the new LNP means for them anymore. The likes of Brandis, I feel, fully realised this and is why he was staunchly against the amalgamation.
The LNP cannot offer their traditional base any “product” or “ideological” differentiation and these people are left confused and feeling betrayed, I think, by the mob that they traditionally supported.
The LNP in Queensland could turn out to be the noughties version of the Joh for Canberra campaign.
jenauthor,
Newspaper today, fish and chip wrapping tomorrow.
john
“The Nationals are looking shaky here in Queensland, which is the only place they’re powerful. Labor did a lot for cane farmers up north during their term, and the Nationals have abandoned the farmers in the Darling Downs to the coal seam gas miners, and a lot of them are looking to other parties. In a lot of regional Queensland, they’ll vote Labor, but they’ll never vote Liberal.’
I’ve been saying that of late as most of these farmers are generational National party voters.
Afterall, Barnacle cried croc tears over their farms & slammed the mining industry, too little tax, lack of infrastructure, bully boy tactics, then backflipped to defend them against paying more tax. Berrated the Rudd government and said that mining was ‘everything’ to Australia and just stopped short of accusing Rudd of treason against the miners.
[I actually read that case, dipshit, and he had his mates hold down the man while he beat him repeatedly with a length of steel cable. And he was convicted of assault, and refused appeal.]
John, For goodness sake don’t mention that the man who was beaten was aboriginal as TTH would consider that to be reason enough for a decent thrashing.
For the information of those bludgers who are viewers of the ABC 2 Breakfast show, I’ll be appearing on Wednesday at 8.30.
Aristotle,
Ask Virginia if it is compulsory to wear black if you are woman on the ABC. Should get discussions off to a bright start.
Ari, you have my sympathy with Trioli, she is unbearable.
I fear the party who is the most dirty during the campaign will win the election.
Hurray for Democracy!
[I fear the party who is the most dirty during the campaign will win the election.]
I reckon the complete opposite.
[For the information of those bludgers who are viewers of the ABC 2 Breakfast show, I’ll be appearing on Wednesday at 8.30.]
Give ’em hell Aristotle… especially Trioli. Ask her if she has ever watched just 5 minutes of a community cabinet meeting. I bet the answer is, No.
Dee,
One of those myths that are to be tested in the coming election is that Barnaby is a nett positive for the Nats and the Coalition.
Chairman Rudd was at a conference with high ranking Chinese officials today.
Wonder if they have checked out his election campaign video yet:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEVHZly21Kk&feature=related
@bh
The Lib-nats should definitely watch their backs here. I’m pretty sure Labor will lose Leichardt, because a popular former member is running after retiring in 2007, but they face a very nasty fight in Ryan, where the Liberal candidate is having a public fight with Michael Johston. Bowman, Andrew Laming’s seat, was won by about 100 votes last time, and I forget her name, but a pretty good candidate is running. The Nationals will probably get the new seat Wright, but I reckon Hinkler will be too close to call. Longman is a gift for Labor re-election, with a 20 year old Lib-Nat candidate. I can’t think of anymore seats off the top of my head, but Queensland should be interesting.
Where are the Fat Man and the Thin Man?
The Comrades smell money:
[Mining tax fails to spook Chinese investors
June 21, 2010 – 2:20PM
Australia and China have inked commercial deals worth more than $10 billion, largely in mining, in another sign that a new Australian mining tax has failed to dampen inward Chinese investment.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/mining-tax-fails-to-spook-chinese-investors-20100621-yqdb.html
“Yep a trouble maker for which Tuckey was cleared of any wrong doing in the courts.”
Cripes! That was back in the day when white men very rarely got had up for assault, rape, murder if the crime was perpetrated on an Aboriginal.
WA was worse than Qld for that.
The Doomagee case (excuse spelling) is a throw back to those days.
@TomHawkins,
Yes, he was indigenous. It’s a terrible thing to do to anyone.
[I actually read that case, dipshit, and he had his mates hold down the man while he beat him repeatedly with a length of steel cable. And he was convicted of assault, and refused appeal.]
It was 40 years ago, get over it. He owned the pub, no doubt it was some trouble makers getting a bit of just deserts.