Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

This week’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 52.5-47.5 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 40 per cent, with the Coalition up 0.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent. The Greens are up 2.5 per cent to 11 per cent.

Problems for the Coalition at ground level dominate the latest round of federal preselection news.

• The Queensland Liberal National Party has dumped its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright, Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, for failing to disclose she was facing Civil and Administrative Tribunal action over the finances of an elderly former council colleague over whom she had power of attorney (a story broken on Sunday by the ubiquitous VexNews). The decision was reportedly made at the direction of Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane. Ban may technically nominate for the re-match, but has been told by the party not to bother. Widely mentioned in connection with the new preselection are Cameron Thompson, who lost his seat of Blair in 2007 and ran against Ban in the initial preselection, and Scott Driscoll of small business lobby group the United Retail Federation, described by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald as “a controversial and opinionated character”.

• Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice has won the Liberal National Party preselection for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, which was held after incumbent Michael Johnson was expelled from the party. Marissa Calligeros of Fairfax reports Prentice received 158 votes against 39 for Christian Rowan and 23 for Wayne Black. Johnson complained on Twitter that the party had chosen an “opportunistic politician” in Prentice over a “talent” in Rowan, a Brisbane medical practitioner who ran for the Nationals in Gympie at the 2004 state election.

• The Northern Star reports the Nationals candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond, Tania Murdock, has pulled out “citing personal attacks on her and issues with parts of the local party”. Labor’s Justine Elliott won the seat from Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004, but ongoing urbanisation is strengthening the Liberals (whose candidate is Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout) in the area relative to the Nationals. Elliott currently holds the seat with a margin of 8.7 per cent.

• Yet another on the Coalition casualty list is Liberal candidate for Dobell Garry Lee, a Wyong businessman who interestingly set up a company last year to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme. Lee announced this week he was withdrawing for personal reasons. It is thought likely the runner-up from the May 14 preselection vote, school teacher Kristy Knox, will put her name forward again.

• The Liberals have preselected Luke Westley, marketing manager for Adelaide Produce Market and candidate for Enfield in the March state election, as candidate for Adelaide. Among the also-rans was Houssam Abiad, whose failure despite backing from factional enemies Alexander Downer and Christopher Pyne may have had something to do with anti-Israel comments publicised by perennial career-wrecker VexNews. Others in the field of eight were factional conservative and former Young Liberals president Sam Duluk, recruitment consultant David Maerschel and real estate agent Vivienne Twelftree.

• ABC Riverina reports the Liberals have preselected Cargill Beef marketing manager Andrew Negline in Riverina, ahead of Julie Elphick, John Larter, Paul McCormack and Charles Morton. The Nationals last week preselected former Daily Advertiser Michael McCormack to replace retiring member Kay Hull.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend figure, a weighted average of various pollsters’ results over the past month, has Labor leading 50.2-49.8. Reuters has published the result as part of an Australian 2010 Pre-Election Package compiled for the benefit of foreign media.

State matters from New South Wales:

• Roy Morgan has published NSW state voting intention figures derived from its two most recent national phone polls, producing a small sample of 360. This shows Labor’s primary vote crashing six points since February to 28.5 per cent, with the Liberals up three to 44 per cent, the Nationals down one to 1 per cent and the Greens up five to 16 per cent.

• Simultaneous with announcing his departure from NSW cabinet last week, Labor’s member for Campbelltown announced he would not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in one of the depressingly small number of seats Labor can be reasonably sure of winning (margin 18.5 per cent). The Macarthur Advertiser reports Campbelltown’s Labor mayor Aaron Rule has denied being interested, saying he would support fellow councillor Anoulack Chanthivong. Another possibility is Paul Nunnari, a policy adviser to West who unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Macarthur. Wollondilly MP Phil Costa denies he will seek refuge from his own highly marginal seat.

• The Great Lakes Advocate reports the NSW Nationals have nominated Forster solicitor Stephen Bromhead as candidate for Myall Lakes, to be vacated on the retirement of sitting member John Turner.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian writes that the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke have warned Barry O’Farrell against a repeat of his unsuccessful attempt to sway the Riverstone preselection in favour of Nick Tyrrell, who had the backing of Alex Hawke’s rival Right sub-faction, against Clarke-backed winner Kevin Connolly. Further turf wars between the rival groups loom in Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill and Hornsby, the latter of which is to be vacated by the recently announced retirement of sitting member Judy Hopwood.

State matters from Victoria:

• The Monash Journal reports the Victorian Liberals have endorsed Theo Zographos, a 21-year-old “has worked part-time as an electorate officer”, as its candidate for the eastern Melbourne suburbs state seat of Oakleigh.

• The Ballarat Courier reports the Victorian Liberals’ administration committee has installed Ballarat councillor Ben Taylor as candidate for
Ballarat East, cutting short the normal preselection process. Labor’s Geoff Howard holds the seat with a margin of 6.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

372 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 8
1 … 6 7 8

  4. Night, bludgers, new book beckons. For sci fi/unbelievablely (not just sci fi really) good book fans, “The Terror” by Dan Simmons. Based on the real effort to reach the North West passage by Franklin and the debacle that ensued. For history buffs, it’s fascinating. For afficianados of a really good yarn, it’s a bottler.

  5. I’m going to be in England for the last two weeks of the World Cup. Between my son and I, we have the soccer shirts for Italy, Australia, Brazil, US and Ireland.

    I’m guessing if we choose correctly, one of us could get bashed up wherever we go.

  7. [we have the soccer shirts for Italy, Australia, Brazil, US and Ireland.]

    Poor Ireland, knocked out by the “Hand of Frog”.

    Now that was an incident that deserved judicial review!

  11. re: suggestions for changes to the R. Birthday holiday

    Maybe make it something progressives and leftists can hijack and use guilt to silence those on the right on the day (“Give it a rest, today is * day! Continue your rhetoric tomorrow, just be respectful today!”)

    After all, they’ve hijacked Australia Day and ANZAC Day, we already have Labour Day, so it stands to reason – for the sake of balance – that we should have another

  13. Holland will win. Seriously

    By the sound of that comment, I think you have been spending too much time there… in the coffee houses…

  15. Gusface@312

    Frank

    what is it with you sandgropers

    her maj will not be pleased

    They moved it to October to co-incide with The Royal Show.

    Australia, except for Western Australia, observes the Queen’s Birthday on the second Monday in June, marking it with a public holiday that also serves as the opening weekend to Australia’s snow season, though it is quite common for there to be no ski-worthy snow until later in the month. Because Western Australia celebrates its Foundation Day on the first Monday in June, the Governor of Western Australia proclaims the day on which the state will observe the Queen’s Birthday, based on school terms and the Perth Royal Show.[1] There is no firm rule to determine this date before it is proclaimed, though it is usually the last Monday of September or the first Monday of October.

     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen%27s_Official_Birthday#Australia 

  16. Holland will play beautifully, put some lesser teams to the sword, and then bomb out in the quarter-final to Brazil.

    (Well, that’s what I reckon, anyway).

  19. Darn,The Finnigans, I just noticed your post. I think I was referring to the situation BP finds itself in, in the US, and that the government would probably be taking notice of this, in relation to the proposed mining tax. You could play it any number of ways it seems to me. Catch you later.

  20. Psephos@317

    I didn’t ask for a long debate on Frau Battenberg’s birthday/s, I asked if it means there will no Newspoll this week?

    And I Gave you an answer – YES !!!!!!! 🙂

  22. Holland (or, more correctly, The Netherlands) could win. They’re not that bad of a team, very good even. They just tend to get drawn into rounds of death and seem unable to stand strong against the giants

  25. Every World Cup, there are teams like Portugal, Spain, Holland and England who should do well but don’t. There are only four teams in any World Cup; Brazil, Argentina, Italy and Germany. The other 32 are just making up the numbers. 😀

    Brazil to win, but I hope Italy win.

  27. gus, I’m not sure about Franklin thinking he found gold. It’s not a part of the story. Just before reading “The Terror” I’d read “The Age of Wonder”, the wider story of the emergence of science, poetry and literature in Europe. Marvellous stuff.
    Now I’m really off to the book, for now.

  29. [There are only four teams in any World Cup; Brazil, Argentina, Italy and Germany. The other 32 are just making up the numbers.]

    I distinctly remember France winning it not all that long ago, or am I thinking of some other variant of foreignball?

  31. I distinctly remember France winning it not all that long ago, or am I thinking of some other variant of foreignball?

    Ah un mille neuf cent quatre-vingt-dix-huit, je t’aime!

    Of course, Brazil were really terrible in that final.

    France also made the final in 2006

  32. I will be putting my money on Brazil to win the WC, with Argentina also a good chance. European teams will find it very tough to beat either of these 2 teams to the silverware, with the perennial losers, England, to dud out, whingeing all the way, in the QFs.

    I’m afraid that Australia, with the best will in the world, will struggle to get into the second round, if what we’ve seen recently from them is any guide, as they are pretty much the same mob as the last WC, only 4 years older and slower. Kewell is a myth.

  34. I’m afraid that Australia, with the best will in the world, will struggle to get into the second round, if what we’ve seen recently from them is any guide, as they are pretty much the same mob as the last WC, only 4 years older and slower. Kewell is a myth.

    If we make it to the Round of 16, we’ll likely do it getting 2nd in the group, which means we’ll go against the number 1 from group C, which is England. I rate Australia’s chance of defeating England very low. (A phrase you don’t often hear in the sporting world!)

  36. For those interested, there is an excellent World Cup Fantasy Football site at the Guardian website. Free and fun. Pick eleven players with no more than 3 from one country.

    I know the Dutch have been playing some great football lately but I don’t think they have the defence to win against the big guns.

    Form says Spain, but history says they always crack in stage two. I suppose that leaves Brazil.

    I’d like to see the Germans win because they have picked a couple of exciting young players plus Bayern were great this year and Germany was good to watch in 2006.

    So my picks are head: Brazil, heart Germany (assuming Australia go out by the round of 16 at latest).

    With the finals being played in Johannesberg, does anyone have a view on which team will go best in high altitude?

  37. I can’t see the finals of the WC in Johannesburg as being an advantage to anyone except the hosts. None of the countries competing would seem to have any ‘team’ edge at high altitudes, individual players with experience notwithstanding.

  39. Well Mexico and South Africa play in the opening game, it would be nice if they played in the final as well since i drew them both in a sweepstake. Should have kept my money in my purse.

  40. It’s only the Final of the WC in Jo’burg, with the Semi Finals in Durban and Cape Town, but two of the four Quarter Finals and two of the eight 2nd round matches in Jo’burg.

    SA vrs Mexico has just kicked off!

  48. With the finals being played in Johannesberg, does anyone have a view on which team will go best in high altitude?

    Not a very big variable. Nevertheless, a South American team would more likely have the advantage in the altitude sense.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 7 of 8
1 … 6 7 8