Morgan: 52-48 to Labor

This week’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 52.5-47.5 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 40 per cent, with the Coalition up 0.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent. The Greens are up 2.5 per cent to 11 per cent.

Problems for the Coalition at ground level dominate the latest round of federal preselection news.

• The Queensland Liberal National Party has dumped its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright, Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, for failing to disclose she was facing Civil and Administrative Tribunal action over the finances of an elderly former council colleague over whom she had power of attorney (a story broken on Sunday by the ubiquitous VexNews). The decision was reportedly made at the direction of Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane. Ban may technically nominate for the re-match, but has been told by the party not to bother. Widely mentioned in connection with the new preselection are Cameron Thompson, who lost his seat of Blair in 2007 and ran against Ban in the initial preselection, and Scott Driscoll of small business lobby group the United Retail Federation, described by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald as “a controversial and opinionated character”.

• Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice has won the Liberal National Party preselection for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, which was held after incumbent Michael Johnson was expelled from the party. Marissa Calligeros of Fairfax reports Prentice received 158 votes against 39 for Christian Rowan and 23 for Wayne Black. Johnson complained on Twitter that the party had chosen an “opportunistic politician” in Prentice over a “talent” in Rowan, a Brisbane medical practitioner who ran for the Nationals in Gympie at the 2004 state election.

• The Northern Star reports the Nationals candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond, Tania Murdock, has pulled out “citing personal attacks on her and issues with parts of the local party”. Labor’s Justine Elliott won the seat from Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004, but ongoing urbanisation is strengthening the Liberals (whose candidate is Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout) in the area relative to the Nationals. Elliott currently holds the seat with a margin of 8.7 per cent.

• Yet another on the Coalition casualty list is Liberal candidate for Dobell Garry Lee, a Wyong businessman who interestingly set up a company last year to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme. Lee announced this week he was withdrawing for personal reasons. It is thought likely the runner-up from the May 14 preselection vote, school teacher Kristy Knox, will put her name forward again.

• The Liberals have preselected Luke Westley, marketing manager for Adelaide Produce Market and candidate for Enfield in the March state election, as candidate for Adelaide. Among the also-rans was Houssam Abiad, whose failure despite backing from factional enemies Alexander Downer and Christopher Pyne may have had something to do with anti-Israel comments publicised by perennial career-wrecker VexNews. Others in the field of eight were factional conservative and former Young Liberals president Sam Duluk, recruitment consultant David Maerschel and real estate agent Vivienne Twelftree.

• ABC Riverina reports the Liberals have preselected Cargill Beef marketing manager Andrew Negline in Riverina, ahead of Julie Elphick, John Larter, Paul McCormack and Charles Morton. The Nationals last week preselected former Daily Advertiser Michael McCormack to replace retiring member Kay Hull.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend figure, a weighted average of various pollsters’ results over the past month, has Labor leading 50.2-49.8. Reuters has published the result as part of an Australian 2010 Pre-Election Package compiled for the benefit of foreign media.

State matters from New South Wales:

• Roy Morgan has published NSW state voting intention figures derived from its two most recent national phone polls, producing a small sample of 360. This shows Labor’s primary vote crashing six points since February to 28.5 per cent, with the Liberals up three to 44 per cent, the Nationals down one to 1 per cent and the Greens up five to 16 per cent.

• Simultaneous with announcing his departure from NSW cabinet last week, Labor’s member for Campbelltown announced he would not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in one of the depressingly small number of seats Labor can be reasonably sure of winning (margin 18.5 per cent). The Macarthur Advertiser reports Campbelltown’s Labor mayor Aaron Rule has denied being interested, saying he would support fellow councillor Anoulack Chanthivong. Another possibility is Paul Nunnari, a policy adviser to West who unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Macarthur. Wollondilly MP Phil Costa denies he will seek refuge from his own highly marginal seat.

• The Great Lakes Advocate reports the NSW Nationals have nominated Forster solicitor Stephen Bromhead as candidate for Myall Lakes, to be vacated on the retirement of sitting member John Turner.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian writes that the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke have warned Barry O’Farrell against a repeat of his unsuccessful attempt to sway the Riverstone preselection in favour of Nick Tyrrell, who had the backing of Alex Hawke’s rival Right sub-faction, against Clarke-backed winner Kevin Connolly. Further turf wars between the rival groups loom in Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill and Hornsby, the latter of which is to be vacated by the recently announced retirement of sitting member Judy Hopwood.

State matters from Victoria:

• The Monash Journal reports the Victorian Liberals have endorsed Theo Zographos, a 21-year-old “has worked part-time as an electorate officer”, as its candidate for the eastern Melbourne suburbs state seat of Oakleigh.

• The Ballarat Courier reports the Victorian Liberals’ administration committee has installed Ballarat councillor Ben Taylor as candidate for
Ballarat East, cutting short the normal preselection process. Labor’s Geoff Howard holds the seat with a margin of 6.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

372 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 … 5 6 7 8

  1. [Yes, my say, the Friday 8:30 timeslot has been excellent but this (repeated) lightweight stuff does not at all enthuse.]

    are they short of money??? where are the great programmes like Spooks and
    Silent Witness Robson green. they have gone to the pack i am afraid.
    they must want to drive us all away, But where to one asks a good book a video
    or to pb.s perhaps or to bed, if the abc dont look out we will all get in to the habbit of never stopping by

  2. That Stateline story on Lannie Mac vs Don Randall was great – and I wonder why they didn’t show the answer of the person asked about the Super Tax by Randall ? Did he say he approved it ? And lots f shots of Gina Reinhrt crying poor at the Miner’s Revolution – to remind people about the astroturfing.

  5. Politics looking bad for BP. Obama/democrats may have found their theme for the mid-terms:
    – anti-corporate
    – anti-foreign
    – anti-Republican “drill baby drill”
    – pro-environment
    [But the escalating disaster of the Gulf oil spill, and the unique constellation it presents, namely, a big, rich, isolated, foreign perp, which is largely if not solely responsible for the mess, in close proximity to contested mid-term elections, might actually rouse Obama to do something uncharacteristic, namely get tough.]

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/bp-is-team-obama-pushing-for-a-full-externalities-precedent.html

  6. Pebbles

    [Yes, it’s called the following election.]

    No, there is no reason why you would wait for the next election. The misconduct pertained to the current election and so should be dressed in that context.

    [Courts deal with the law, not what or wasn’t fair election tactics.]

    If the election tactics are illegal, as in fraudulent, then a court has jurisdiction as it would be a breach of the law.

  9. The courts have always been extremely reluctant to get involved in election disputes unless there is clear electoral fraud. And quite rightly so, since it would open a huge can of worms if candidates could start litigating each other over who said what about whom. I doubt Hanna will get very far, particularly if the things he objects to were said in Parliament and are thus privileged.

  10. Apparently 4 Corners are going to do a show on the NRL in the near future. Rumour has it, as stated on 3AW’s rumour file, that 4 other teams have “done a Storm” and a couple of these sides have won premierships in the last 10 years. According to the rumour 4 Corners have irrefutable proof. Only a rumour at this stage. The jock of the morning AW show also believes 4 Corners is doing such a program but that’s all. He wasn’t aware of any of the detail though.

  11. Thought I heard that the Poms and Yanks are about to go to war over BP’s oil spill. Something about all the Pom retirees’ super is in shares in BP and are being put at risk by Obama demanding BP pay for the clean up and compensation with those shareholder dividends? 😉

  12. [The courts have always been extremely reluctant to get involved in election disputes unless there is clear electoral fraud. And quite rightly so, since it would open a huge can of worms if candidates could start litigating each other over who said what about whom.]

    It’s the way it’s got to be.

    Otherwise you’d have periods of months after practically every close election, during which no-one would be sure who is in government.

  13. Psephos

    [I doubt Hanna will get very far, particularly if the things he objects to were said in Parliament and are thus privileged.]

    I doubt he’ll get far either (I haven’t actually been following it) but I hope that if he was deliberately misrepresented that something comes out of it to discourage parties from doing it in future.

  17. Someone in posts 1-265 has probably picked up that Morgan gave 2% as “other”. I suggest 5%, the totals will then add to 100%. At the moment they only add to 97%.

    Commenter #2 suggested that “rusted ons” was more than 33% for ALP. It seems actually to be about 31% but is slowly drifting down. The Coalition rusted-ons are also about 31%

  18. 4 other teams have “done a Storm”

    Well.. it would be amazing if that is the only other teams that have engaged in financial fraud within NRL. Fraud is what it is. Its as simple as that.

    I really want to see the full story come out – particularly as it pertains to NewsCorp and associated interests. Once and for all we need the veil to drop and see just what this mob have been up to. Just once have these sanctimonious so and so’s have a blow torch on their nether regions in full public display (as revolting as it would be ) it is long overdue.

    It is important that this NewsCorp mob get unfrocked, they are manipulating democracies here, the UK and the US and its well overdue they they get their well overdue comeuppance.

  21. But what is “deliberate misrepresentation”? If Rudd says that Abbott wants to take away workers’ rights, and Abbott says that Rudd wants to ruin the mining industry, should the courts be required to decide whether these things are true, or if there are being said with intent to misrepresent? It would put judges in an impossible position.

  22. Righto, it’s the entertainment value overall with TTH. Yep, I get that. Bit like BB listening to the radio station that drives him bonkers, but this time it’s reversed.

  23. [Commenter #2 suggested that “rusted ons” was more than 33% for ALP. It seems actually to be about 31% but is slowly drifting down. The Coalition rusted-ons are also about 31%]
    I’d like to see the proof of this comment.

  24. BB @ 200

    I count backwards from 100, and start again if I miss a number. And it works every time. Hadn’t thought of trying to get out of sync with my heartbeat though.

  25. Psephos

    Judges have to decide that kind of thing all the time during fraud and libel trials. I imagine they’d be pretty lenient but there have to be some standards. There is no reason why political parties should be above the law.

  27. Kazinho kazonis

    South African miners’ helmets? Get one for twiggy! #sbsworldcup #rspt 37 minutes ago via web Retweeted by you and 1 other

  31. The person concerned is unlikely at this point to own up, considering the state of Spain’s finances.

    I am very happy to own up to having invested in a couple of solar farms in Spain. The Spanish government has curtailed new projects, but existing ones continue to be paid the contracted rates. They have a thriving export industry to protect so I’m confident they’ll do everything possible to isolate it from the problems elsewhere. Sure, if the country goes belly up then maybe I’ll do my dough, but I’m not loosing any sleep over it.

  33. [Judges have to decide that kind of thing all the time during fraud and libel trials. ]

    That’s because there’s no other arbiter in those areas. In electoral matters the final arbiter is the voters, and must always be so. If Smith and Jones call each liars and scoundrels, and the voters decide to believe Smith and not Jones, the courts should not be able to overrule the voters, even if it turns out that Jones was right.

  34. [The Yanks are REALLY pissed off with BP.]

    Obama has nothing to lose by going for BP’s throat, so he will.

    Will be fascinating to see who ends up owning all of BP’s oil-producing assets!

  36. Well, it would seem that Kev from Q’l’d has pretty much stitched up both the miners and the LTOP, going to be interesting to see what happens in the polls over the next few months.

  37. The Finnigans@285

    Where are the lions, cheetahs, rhinos and the elephants?

    Probably not allowed to use them cos Disney owns the copyright to The Lion King and if they use them they might be sued.

  39. Finns

    Just put $200 on Italy at 13/1.

    Italia! Italia! Italia!

    I think New Zealand is the clear favourite to win 😀

    Seriously, my money is on Deutschland.

  41. Who I am going for: Australia, until they are knocked out
    After that: France
    Who I think will win: Germany

  45. Psephos@293

    Do I gather there won’t be a Newspoll this week because it’s Frau Battenberg’s birthday?

    If you mean Betty Windsor – Yes – hence the lack of big bootstrappery on the OO.

  47. Do I gather there won’t be a Newspoll this week because it’s Frau Battenberg’s birthday?

    That holiday’s name really should be changed to something a little less… colonial.

  48. Psephos

    [In electoral matters the final arbiter is the voters, and must always be so. ]

    The voters choose who to vote for but if the information they base that decision on is fraudulent (like the Lindsay pamphlets), I think it’s quite reasonable that there is a judicial process that can intervene. I’m not saying you would make them have a new election but a fine and public shaming would be appropriate unless it was really major.

    Politicians get away with too much BS. They say they are accountable to the voters but a choice between two bunches of liars every 3 or 4 years isn’t really accountability. If a political party was subject to the Trade Practices Act, the ACCC would be all over them.

  49. [The Finnigans, I wonder if the government might be having a bit of a think about it .]

    Harry, please explain.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 … 5 6 7 8