This week’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 52.5-47.5 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 40 per cent, with the Coalition up 0.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent. The Greens are up 2.5 per cent to 11 per cent.
Problems for the Coalition at ground level dominate the latest round of federal preselection news.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has dumped its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright, Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, for failing to disclose she was facing Civil and Administrative Tribunal action over the finances of an elderly former council colleague over whom she had power of attorney (a story broken on Sunday by the ubiquitous VexNews). The decision was reportedly made at the direction of Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane. Ban may technically nominate for the re-match, but has been told by the party not to bother. Widely mentioned in connection with the new preselection are Cameron Thompson, who lost his seat of Blair in 2007 and ran against Ban in the initial preselection, and Scott Driscoll of small business lobby group the United Retail Federation, described by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald as “a controversial and opinionated character”.
• Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice has won the Liberal National Party preselection for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, which was held after incumbent Michael Johnson was expelled from the party. Marissa Calligeros of Fairfax reports Prentice received 158 votes against 39 for Christian Rowan and 23 for Wayne Black. Johnson complained on Twitter that the party had chosen an “opportunistic politician” in Prentice over a “talent” in Rowan, a Brisbane medical practitioner who ran for the Nationals in Gympie at the 2004 state election.
• The Northern Star reports the Nationals candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond, Tania Murdock, has pulled out “citing personal attacks on her and issues with parts of the local party”. Labor’s Justine Elliott won the seat from Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004, but ongoing urbanisation is strengthening the Liberals (whose candidate is Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout) in the area relative to the Nationals. Elliott currently holds the seat with a margin of 8.7 per cent.
• Yet another on the Coalition casualty list is Liberal candidate for Dobell Garry Lee, a Wyong businessman who interestingly set up a company last year to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme. Lee announced this week he was withdrawing for personal reasons. It is thought likely the runner-up from the May 14 preselection vote, school teacher Kristy Knox, will put her name forward again.
• The Liberals have preselected Luke Westley, marketing manager for Adelaide Produce Market and candidate for Enfield in the March state election, as candidate for Adelaide. Among the also-rans was Houssam Abiad, whose failure despite backing from factional enemies Alexander Downer and Christopher Pyne may have had something to do with anti-Israel comments publicised by perennial career-wrecker VexNews. Others in the field of eight were factional conservative and former Young Liberals president Sam Duluk, recruitment consultant David Maerschel and real estate agent Vivienne Twelftree.
• ABC Riverina reports the Liberals have preselected Cargill Beef marketing manager Andrew Negline in Riverina, ahead of Julie Elphick, John Larter, Paul McCormack and Charles Morton. The Nationals last week preselected former Daily Advertiser Michael McCormack to replace retiring member Kay Hull.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend figure, a weighted average of various pollsters’ results over the past month, has Labor leading 50.2-49.8. Reuters has published the result as part of an Australian 2010 Pre-Election Package compiled for the benefit of foreign media.
State matters from New South Wales:
• Roy Morgan has published NSW state voting intention figures derived from its two most recent national phone polls, producing a small sample of 360. This shows Labor’s primary vote crashing six points since February to 28.5 per cent, with the Liberals up three to 44 per cent, the Nationals down one to 1 per cent and the Greens up five to 16 per cent.
• Simultaneous with announcing his departure from NSW cabinet last week, Labor’s member for Campbelltown announced he would not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in one of the depressingly small number of seats Labor can be reasonably sure of winning (margin 18.5 per cent). The Macarthur Advertiser reports Campbelltown’s Labor mayor Aaron Rule has denied being interested, saying he would support fellow councillor Anoulack Chanthivong. Another possibility is Paul Nunnari, a policy adviser to West who unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Macarthur. Wollondilly MP Phil Costa denies he will seek refuge from his own highly marginal seat.
• The Great Lakes Advocate reports the NSW Nationals have nominated Forster solicitor Stephen Bromhead as candidate for Myall Lakes, to be vacated on the retirement of sitting member John Turner.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian writes that the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke have warned Barry O’Farrell against a repeat of his unsuccessful attempt to sway the Riverstone preselection in favour of Nick Tyrrell, who had the backing of Alex Hawke’s rival Right sub-faction, against Clarke-backed winner Kevin Connolly. Further turf wars between the rival groups loom in Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill and Hornsby, the latter of which is to be vacated by the recently announced retirement of sitting member Judy Hopwood.
State matters from Victoria:
• The Monash Journal reports the Victorian Liberals have endorsed Theo Zographos, a 21-year-old “has worked part-time as an electorate officer”, as its candidate for the eastern Melbourne suburbs state seat of Oakleigh.
• The Ballarat Courier reports the Victorian Liberals’ administration committee has installed Ballarat councillor Ben Taylor as candidate for
Ballarat East, cutting short the normal preselection process. Labor’s Geoff Howard holds the seat with a margin of 6.7 per cent.
“conducted last weekend, June 5/6”
The same weekend as Nielsen poll?
Kit@1
Yep, Though Nielsen started theirs on Friday Night.
Talk about Chalk & Cheese.
Now that we have the Morgan figures from last weekend, it is now clear that the Nielson poll was a rogue.All the other regular polls have Labour in front while Nielson would have us believe that its 53-47 to the Libs.
The 33% first preference for Labor never rang true for me. The party has more rusted ons than that..
Polling is an inexact science.
Frank
Those tweets from Kev you posted on the previous thread sounded like he has been getting a good reception from the mine workers today.
Bet we don’t see much of that on tonight’s news 😉
The usual comments to this one will be:
– Morgan face to face always slightly overstates the Labor vote
– Decimal points really don’t say anything
So it is probably not indicative of any trend either way. Next Newspoll will be more important. Do they poll on long weekends?
[So it is probably not indicative of any trend either way]
Maybe not but it certainly hasn’t picked up the massive decline in the Labor vote Neilsen picked up and neither did Essential for that matter.
Gary@7
Especially as this Morgan was taken at EXACTLY the same time as Nielsen.
I think that makes one Cabinet minister, two sitting MPs and three candidates who have been brought down by VexNews. Say what you like about Landeryou, he gets the news no-one else cares to run, and he runs it. I don’t always agree with his opinions, but his piece this week on the NSW ALP was excellent.
Gary
True, very true.
It’s a Morgan… move along people nothing to see here.
BTW, still haven’t seen any of these pollsters here in marginal Townsville
But, but… the Gallery have given up on Rudd… there’s nothing he can do to save himself now….
What do you expect Truthy? Marching girls? A brass band? 76 trombones?
“Hurry up kids! Morgan’s in town!”
Sheesh…
Hey Truthy
Did you get to meet Tone in Townsville today?
The odds of being selected in a randomly selected 1000 person survey, out of a population of 22,500,000 are 0.004%. Four ten-thousandths of a per cent.
[It’s a Morgan… move along people nothing to see here]
Oh, so now the trend doesn’t count? Make up your mind Hurts.
Tone’s ducking and covering. Besides he feels “uncomfortable” around Truthy’s type.
TheTruthHurts = The last refuge of the scoundrel – “I’ve never seen any of these pollsters” so they must be making it up …. but only when the results don’t conform to your world view, eh?
[Oh, so now the trend doesn’t count? Make up your mind Hurts.]
The trend is DOWN. In that respect it gives an indication of how Labor are travelling.
But the numbers are still dodgy.
From Mumble:
BB
The odds are actually higher as those under 18 aren’t polled, non citizens, etc. But even so the odds are not high. I have been polled Morgan face to face once – and on the phone (politically) once at most twice.
I remember the Morgan lady telling that she had spent a whole in Toorak without a single interview – couldn’t get past the front gate. With security gates, security apartment buildings, etc. I am not sure why they bother.
St Bob wants Two Bob:
http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/dont-give-in-to-miners-greens-bob-brown-tells-kevin-rudd/story-e6frfkur-1225878488136
… a whole day in Toorak….
[TheTruthHurts = The last refuge of the scoundrel – “I’ve never seen any of these pollsters” so they must be making it up …. but only when the results don’t conform to your world view, eh?]
I never said they made it up, I’m just not convinced they have the resources… or could be stuffed polling in marginal seats that are in out of the way places with face to face polling.
It would be handy if Morgan did everyone a favour and report exactly which electorates they polled in and how many people from each. Surely Morgan knows where they are getting their numbers from if it’s face to face?!
[I have been polled Morgan face to face once – and on the phone (politically) once at most twice.]
What electorate?
[The trend is DOWN. In that respect it gives an indication of how Labor are travelling.]
Well der. We established that a few weeks ago. The question is how far down, Neilsen level or “other polls” level.
[It would be handy if Morgan did everyone a favour and report exactly which electorates they polled in and how many people from each. Surely Morgan knows where they are getting their numbers from if it’s face to face?!]
Why just Morgan? Why not the others as well?
Face to Face was in Deakin – some years ago now – I remember it quite clearly as I was up a ladder at the front of my house cleaning the gutters – so I was sort of caught. Phone I cannot recall.
Presumably the sample should be big enough so that any local variations would be ironed out. Otherwise the samples would be too small if it was done locally – even in single electorate polls the samples need to be fairly big (300 – 400?) to get the margin of error down.
[Why just Morgan? Why not the others as well?]
Because the others use a telemephone so they could be calling anywhere.
If you have face to face pollsters door knocking or doing polling at the shops, then surely they can let us know where exactly they did this. It really couldn’t be that hard.
[Turnbull unlikely to seek leadership]
Oh yeah ABC ?
[“I’m determined to keep taking that fight up to the Rudd Government and I’ll do so in whatever capacity my colleagues invite me to do it.”]
So if he gets enough colleagues to back him for leader do you think he will not seek it?
The reality is that all polls are simply the mood of a number of people on one day.
Faced with massive amounts of lies by the MSM it is no wonder the Aussies think that things are tough.
There is good news though – Justine Ferrari managed to find a library building under the BER that she could say something nice about.
The fact is that the program is enormously successful and having spent all last year slagging off on it the Australian are left with egg on faces as the many thousands of projects are completed.
And that 1.1 million houses in danger are still standing.
Hysteria is the problem.
And the mine workers want a new tax because they are paying more than the bosses and they take all the risks.
Remember Beaconsfield anyone?
How to get taken off air by the ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/11/2924916.htm
Truthy only believes in polls that have the Liberals ahead. 😉
Telephones have addresses attached to them though. Who is the dimwit who thinks that makes a difference to a poll?
The pollsters do have male/ female, age cohort and city/ rural quotas to reflect the overall demographics. I can see how this is done with telephone polling but not sure with face to face – otherwise the collectors would be trawling the suburbs looking for a 25-39 year old male or something like that before they can go home.
Have you all read the piece from Catherine Deveny ‘leave Kevin Rudd alone’
I like this part
[Sure, we don’t know what Kevin Rudd stands for. Be glad. Imagine if we did! We know what Tony Abbott stands for and it’s terrifying.]
What’s with wanting to know everything little thought Kev has. Did we ever really know Howard except for his portrayal by the media as strong. Too right he was strong when ole George said follow me to a stoopid war in Iraq – about as a cup of hot water I’d say.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2922801.htm
[I never said they made it up, I’m just not convinced they have the resources… or could be stuffed polling in marginal seats that are in out of the way places with face to face polling.]
This was all explained to you the last time you made these idiotic comments. Don’t you ever learn anything, you moron?
[Telephones have addresses attached to them though. Who is the dimwit who thinks that makes a difference to a poll?]
Correct and, ah, Hurts.
Was phone polled at my Liberal voting brothers house just before the NSW election of Greiner in 1988 or 89.
I think I was the only one holding up Barry Unsworths vote at the time.
[Sure, we don’t know what Kevin Rudd stands for. Be glad. Imagine if we did! We know what Tony Abbott stands for and it’s terrifying.]
LOL. Beautiful.
Back in the days when I did telephone market research (many years ago) we had to work through lists of randomly generated numbers – we didn’t have the phone book. And again, in this era when a lot of people (especially young people) do not have fixed lines – the sampling must be difficult to achieve. Does anybody know how they compensate for that?
[Telephones have addresses attached to them though. Who is the dimwit who thinks that makes a difference to a poll?]
The difference is this.
I can call 1 person in Townsville. 1 Person in Perth. 1 Person in Broome. 1 Person in Sydney. 1 Person in Adelaide. 1 Person in Uluru.
Face to Face? Impossible. I’d need someone going around knocking on doors, so i’d probably have them give me 100 people surveyed in the local area.
Therefore it is much more important to know WHERE was polled and how many people were polled when it comes to face to face, yet less important with phone polling.
They have pollsters in every state.
What is wrong with you truth? Phones are notoriously unreliable.
Truth.
Best leave this one alone, you are on a hiding to nothing.
[They have pollsters in every state.]
But they AREN’T doing 1 single house per electorate!
You can do that with a phone poll, but it’s impossible with a face to face pollster.
Under Rudd’s Workplace Ripoffs even the kiddies have to work a minimum of 3 hours a day. Are these poll workers doing 10 minutes of work and then spending the other 2 hours and 50 minutes down at the beach?
[Therefore it is much more important to know WHERE was polled and how many people were polled when it comes to face to face, yet less important with phone polling.]
If the ‘where’ is affecting the result, as you claim, the same would apply to phone polls.
Where to start with such stupidity? It’s almost time for STFU, I think.
TheTruthHurts – you imply that because you’ve not seen any of these pollsters knocking at your door, or because they haven’t contacted you on the phone, then there must be something inherently wrong, or dodgy with their methodology – how egocentric can one get?
Within the error limits they always quote (generally based on sample size) most of the reputable pollsters (Roy Morgan, Newspoll, AC Nielsen, Essential, Galaxy) DO know what they are doing, otherwise they would not retain their commercial reputations for very long in the competitive world of social research and opinion polling
Roy Morgan do have a proven (but no doubt proprietary) methodology for selecting locations for their Face to Face interviewing, as they do for their phone polls, and your ‘shoot the messenger’ method of casting aspersions on them, despite their known limitations, says much more about you than it does them.
[Where to start with such stupidity? It’s almost time for STFU, I think.]
It really is hard to believe isn’t it?