This week’s Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 52.5-47.5 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 40 per cent, with the Coalition up 0.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent. The Greens are up 2.5 per cent to 11 per cent.
Problems for the Coalition at ground level dominate the latest round of federal preselection news.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has dumped its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright, Logan councillor Hajnal Ban, for failing to disclose she was facing Civil and Administrative Tribunal action over the finances of an elderly former council colleague over whom she had power of attorney (a story broken on Sunday by the ubiquitous VexNews). The decision was reportedly made at the direction of Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane. Ban may technically nominate for the re-match, but has been told by the party not to bother. Widely mentioned in connection with the new preselection are Cameron Thompson, who lost his seat of Blair in 2007 and ran against Ban in the initial preselection, and Scott Driscoll of small business lobby group the United Retail Federation, described by Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald as “a controversial and opinionated character”.
• Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice has won the Liberal National Party preselection for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, which was held after incumbent Michael Johnson was expelled from the party. Marissa Calligeros of Fairfax reports Prentice received 158 votes against 39 for Christian Rowan and 23 for Wayne Black. Johnson complained on Twitter that the party had chosen an “opportunistic politician” in Prentice over a “talent” in Rowan, a Brisbane medical practitioner who ran for the Nationals in Gympie at the 2004 state election.
• The Northern Star reports the Nationals candidate for the north coast NSW seat of Richmond, Tania Murdock, has pulled out “citing personal attacks on her and issues with parts of the local party”. Labor’s Justine Elliott won the seat from Nationals member Larry Anthony in 2004, but ongoing urbanisation is strengthening the Liberals (whose candidate is Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout) in the area relative to the Nationals. Elliott currently holds the seat with a margin of 8.7 per cent.
• Yet another on the Coalition casualty list is Liberal candidate for Dobell Garry Lee, a Wyong businessman who interestingly set up a company last year to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme. Lee announced this week he was withdrawing for personal reasons. It is thought likely the runner-up from the May 14 preselection vote, school teacher Kristy Knox, will put her name forward again.
• The Liberals have preselected Luke Westley, marketing manager for Adelaide Produce Market and candidate for Enfield in the March state election, as candidate for Adelaide. Among the also-rans was Houssam Abiad, whose failure despite backing from factional enemies Alexander Downer and Christopher Pyne may have had something to do with anti-Israel comments publicised by perennial career-wrecker VexNews. Others in the field of eight were factional conservative and former Young Liberals president Sam Duluk, recruitment consultant David Maerschel and real estate agent Vivienne Twelftree.
• ABC Riverina reports the Liberals have preselected Cargill Beef marketing manager Andrew Negline in Riverina, ahead of Julie Elphick, John Larter, Paul McCormack and Charles Morton. The Nationals last week preselected former Daily Advertiser Michael McCormack to replace retiring member Kay Hull.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend figure, a weighted average of various pollsters’ results over the past month, has Labor leading 50.2-49.8. Reuters has published the result as part of an Australian 2010 Pre-Election Package compiled for the benefit of foreign media.
State matters from New South Wales:
• Roy Morgan has published NSW state voting intention figures derived from its two most recent national phone polls, producing a small sample of 360. This shows Labor’s primary vote crashing six points since February to 28.5 per cent, with the Liberals up three to 44 per cent, the Nationals down one to 1 per cent and the Greens up five to 16 per cent.
• Simultaneous with announcing his departure from NSW cabinet last week, Labor’s member for Campbelltown announced he would not contest the next election, creating a vacancy in one of the depressingly small number of seats Labor can be reasonably sure of winning (margin 18.5 per cent). The Macarthur Advertiser reports Campbelltown’s Labor mayor Aaron Rule has denied being interested, saying he would support fellow councillor Anoulack Chanthivong. Another possibility is Paul Nunnari, a policy adviser to West who unsuccessfully contested preselection for the federal seat of Macarthur. Wollondilly MP Phil Costa denies he will seek refuge from his own highly marginal seat.
• The Great Lakes Advocate reports the NSW Nationals have nominated Forster solicitor Stephen Bromhead as candidate for Myall Lakes, to be vacated on the retirement of sitting member John Turner.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian writes that the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke have warned Barry O’Farrell against a repeat of his unsuccessful attempt to sway the Riverstone preselection in favour of Nick Tyrrell, who had the backing of Alex Hawke’s rival Right sub-faction, against Clarke-backed winner Kevin Connolly. Further turf wars between the rival groups loom in Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill and Hornsby, the latter of which is to be vacated by the recently announced retirement of sitting member Judy Hopwood.
State matters from Victoria:
• The Monash Journal reports the Victorian Liberals have endorsed Theo Zographos, a 21-year-old “has worked part-time as an electorate officer”, as its candidate for the eastern Melbourne suburbs state seat of Oakleigh.
• The Ballarat Courier reports the Victorian Liberals’ administration committee has installed Ballarat councillor Ben Taylor as candidate for
Ballarat East, cutting short the normal preselection process. Labor’s Geoff Howard holds the seat with a margin of 6.7 per cent.
normally a face to facer is given astreet and told to do each house consecutively
If possible get the demographic that is underepresented (normally the yoof cohort)
At least eight complete forms must be done
on avg an interview can take 45 mins
The street is chosen based on the ABS profiles
And yes regionals get done-sometimes by ‘flying squads’ specially sent in to cover an area
And yes the lower and the upper demographic are the hardest to get data from
Speaking of being invisible to polling methodology, I continue to feel mildly guilty for being effectively unpollable – I have a landline, but it’s only for the ADSL connection so I don’t give the number out for it or answer it if it rings (everyone who matters gets my mobile number dammit), nor do I answer unsolicited buzzes from the street – I’m basically in Kings Cross, ring my mobile before you rock up!
Jackol, that’s exactly my situation. My landline is never connected to a phone, and I never answer my door buzzer if I don’t know who it is. I wonder how many people are now unpollable for these reasons?
[It really is hard to believe isn’t it?]
No it not really, it is standard Liberal practice. Don’t like the data attack the organisation who prepared it.
Treasury, Reserve Bank, Morgan it does not matter.
[blackburnpseph
Posted Friday, June 11, 2010 at 2:36 pm | Permalink
The usual comments to this one will be:]
as a liberal you would hope so
TTH, Morgan makes pretty much all of its data available to those willing to pay several thousand dollars for the privilege.
BH
Lovely to see a nice photo of Kev accompanying a news article for a change 🙂
Tone left eating Kev’s dust.
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2010/06/11/rudd-govrernment-mackay-sport-stadium/
[no Newspoll on Tuesday means Nielsen’s 47 to 53 hangs around for another week, informing everyone’s Big Stories. #itscharacterbuildingkevin half a minute ago via web ]
ah but we have essential
Morgan was before 4 corners and the rich-philistine rally in Perth. They couldn’t have helped the libs.
Go and see quenty Kev. Do it now.
[Go and see quenty Kev. Do it now.]
The election window opens 1 July, Rosa. Patience, comrade.
[Before yesterday’s funding announcement, Mr Abbott met with stadium committee members for a tour of the site. While he was sympathetic to their request for more funding, Mr Abbott said he could not commit to it at this point in time.]
Tone only commits funding for Brookvale Oval. 😛
ruawake – I bet Tone turned up and he didn’t even know what state he was in – that’s why he couldn’t guarantee funding. While his itinerary was being arranged, he would out on a bike.
Now its Jac Nassers turn
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/bhp-chairman-jac-nasser-slams-rudds-lack-of-mining-tax-talk/story-e6frg9df-1225878447537
First Face Palmer
Fail
Then Twiggy and The Rhino
Fail, Fail.
No we have the bloke that ran Ford into the ground in the 1990 thinking that the PM if Australia can drop everything to consult with this ego driven clown, even though he met face to face with Kloppers earlier in the week.
Desperado with the OO still taking up the cudgels.
Hate to tell you mining thieves, but the public either doesn’t care or is in favour of the tax.
Selfish thieves.
Most telephone polling done today derives from RDD sample lists (Random Digit Dialling) as the old electonic White Pages, until the last few years freely available commercially, has been kiboshed by Telstra, at least at a reasonable cost. Young people, and those with no landline phones (an increasingly large % of the population) are therefore generally not being representatively sampled in phone polls unless a ‘hard quota’ of interviews that replicates an ABS demographic spread is adhered to, which most pollsters do.
Essential Media, and an increasing number of pollsters, use an online panel for their interviews to be conducted with panel members via an e-mail invitation, but these polls do have some limitations on representativeness unless rigorously managed.
Face to Face methodologies for deriving ‘sample’ (ie: households to be doorknocked) are a bit more complicated, but it is a fundamental tenet of polling research that a particular F2F interviewer would be allocated an area in which to doorknock (usually a few square blocks) and they follow a predetermined walk pattern that somewhat randomised which particular household they attempt to contact in that area. These individual interviewer areas allocated are again randomly derived from wider geographic blocks, and if it is done properly (as most experienced pollsters manage to do, as it is their job) then a representative sample can be derived that is large and diverse enough to support a judgement on a ‘confidence level’ or an error margin %.
Not rocket science, but a science nonetheless when done properly.
Notice how the attack on Rudd is on the process rather than the tax?
Can you imagine what the polls would be like if the mine workers agreeing with the tax was being pushed as hard by the media as they are doing with the mining magnates’ great big lie about the tax?
Rudd will not back down on the RSPT, it gives him $9 billion to allocate to programs that the Libs cannot use. In fact they have to oppose these programs.
Opposing the RSPT was one of the dumbest political moves Abbott has made and he has made quite a few.
[Before yesterday’s funding announcement, Mr Abbott met with stadium committee members for a tour of the site. While he was sympathetic to their request for more funding, Mr Abbott said he could not commit to it at this point in time.
Nor would he commit to funding for a ring road, which Mackay Regional Council appealed for in an open letter to Mr Abbott and Mr Rudd in a full-page ad in yesterday’s Daily Mercury.
]
Labor could use this to highlight to people that Tones need to make savage cuts in order to win the surplus pissing contest will directly affect [them] by denying funding to projects [they] want.
Personally, I think spending on sports facilities should be a low priority and I have serious reservations about much road spending (for capital works at least) but I recognise that puts me firmly in the minority so the situation might as well be milked for every advantage.
gary
the meme has changed but the hatred lingers still
🙁
Gary @ 65
Have you only just noticed?
Gee I wonder if that has anything to do with Rudd Ironcladding it in the budget.. THEN negotiating.
Does anyone know of someone who signs off on a plan, THEN negotiates? Honestly?
[Opposing the RSPT was one of the dumbest political moves Abbott has made and he has made quite a few.]
Yeah the pollings really indicating that.
Rudd’s been trying to sell this as a great big new tax, now he’s flipped and is trying to sell it as a great big infrastructure investment. Bit too late for that though, the horse has already bolted
How could Tony Abbott commit to funding the Mackay Stadium?
He doesn’t have the keys to the pork barrel. Those keys are the advantage of incumbency.
Thanks Vera – a bit different to the photos used by The Drum.
The irony is that even when the Howard Govt. had buckets of money they didn’t use it for infrastructure. It was all gobbled up by welfare to those who didn’t really need it.
I hope Labor has a big ad with charts of exactly how much gold rained from the mining boom to Howard and how little remained. Around a measley $16Bill surplus with Labor finding $6bill. wastage for its first budget.
They need to point that out – plus the loss in revenue during the GFC.
Joffaboy – Oh, my god, Jac Nasser has written ANOTHER LETTER to shareholders. That must have them quaking in their boots in the govt’s war room.
[Have you only just noticed?]
For awhile there it was on the tax but very recently the attack has changed. I’ve noticed that.
[Does anyone know of someone who signs off on a plan, THEN negotiates? Honestly?]
Rudd has zero intention of negotiating Truthy. Its not like Mining Companies are State Govts that Rudd needs to get an agreement with.
With the RSPT being announced as part of the budget – does it fall into the category of supply? Or will it be a separate stand alone piece of legislation?What I am getting at is if the senate should reject the RSPT it is not rejecting supply. Can somebody please clarify.
[Yeah the pollings really indicating that.]
Only in your imagination.
[How could Tony Abbott commit to funding the Mackay Stadium?
He doesn’t have the keys to the pork barrel. Those keys are the advantage of incumbency.]
At that stage those asking didn’t know Rudd was going to kick in did they. They wanted a Tone to committ just in case he became PM. Not an unfair question I would say given the polls.
[With the RSPT being announced as part of the budget – does it fall into the category of supply]
No because it does not start until 2012.
[He doesn’t have the keys to the pork barrel. Those keys are the advantage of incumbency.]
what nonsence hodgman and the greens here said yes to every thing, it what you do
you ask an opposition if they will if they where
When do sporting stadiums come into the category of infrastructure? More like bread and circuses whichever party funds them.
[Does anyone know of someone who signs off on a plan, THEN negotiates? ]
Howard announced the GST, then negotiated with the Dems to get it through the Senate. But Rudd doesn’t need to do that, because after the election there will be a Labor-Greens Senate which will pass the budget. When Howard had control of the Senate, he announced WorkChoices, for which he had no mandate, then rammed it through without negotiating with anyone.
And therein lies the problem of 99% of your posts. You have a habit of arguing from your own credulity/incredulity – that is, you tend to believe everything applies to people just as they apply to you. eg. you are a right wing Liberal supporter from Townsville, therefore Townsville must be anti-Rudd. You don’t like a Labor advertisement, therefore Australia must not like it. You haven’t been polled by Morgan, therefore Morgan must not poll Townsville (or the more extreme “they just make their numbers up”.) etc.
Perhaps a little more objectivity in your analyses (your opinions are fine – you’re free to do what you want with those) and you may be taken a little more seriously.
[When do sporting stadiums come into the category of infrastructure? ]
They are social infrastructure, just like a theatre or an art gallery. They employ people, they benefit local business, they bring tourists.
[BTW, still haven’t seen any of these pollsters here in marginal Townsville]
That’s because you’re on their list of “people not to be polled because they’re too stupid to understand the question.”
“At that stage those asking didn’t know Rudd was going to kick in did they”
I am sure that they knew as well as the PM did that it is a marginal seat. The most out of tune PM in the world would have kicked in for that one.
No real movement in Morgan (0.5 is statistically nothing.) Nothing to see here, except another set of numbers to make the Nielsen poll look out of place. If the next Newspoll shows similar results, we can completely ignore the last Nielsen…
“Tone only commits funding for Brookvale Oval.”
Brooky would be one of the very few suburbs on the northern beaches that votes ALP. And it is a dump of a ground.
[Brooky would be one of the very few suburbs on the northern beaches that votes ALP. And it is a dump of a ground.]
Agreed but an upgrade was Liberal Policy at the 2007 election.
This whole notion of anything beyond the next financial year ‘being in the budget’ is a nonsense. Governments have been putting more emphasis on the projections because they’re being attacked for ‘when is the debt getting paid off’ and other stuff like that, and the projections provide one vaguely plausible outcome that might approximate what actually happens, but the only things that are at all ‘locked in’ are what happens in the financial year to come. The rest is fairy tale stuff – the only reason to have it there at all is to provide some sense of a longer term context/vision.
The RSPT was announced for a potential 2012 start date, the fact that it has been referenced in future years projections doesn’t ‘lock it in’ in any way. Negotiations proceed, as they should.
[I am sure that they knew as well as the PM did that it is a marginal seat. The most out of tune PM in the world would have kicked in for that one.]
And any Opposition Leader, knowing that it is a marginal seat, would have given the committment given the state of the polls.
Reminder to Truthy.
The CFMEU Raiders are in Townsville – hope you have a sad Saturday. 🙂
[And any Opposition Leader, knowing that it is a marginal seat, would have given the committment given the state of the polls.]
Tone has so many Tanner pointy sticks up him that he cannot commit to anything.
[Rudd has zero intention of negotiating Truthy. Its not like Mining Companies are State Govts that Rudd needs to get an agreement with]
Only people Rudd needs to convince are the punters who are either disengaged and dont care or are all in favour of the tax. Very few except for the rusted on Liberals opposed the tax.
The electorate are basically selfish beasts. They would only be against the tax if it directly effected them. Considering they get a bonus in their Super and the company they work for gets some sweetners, why would they care if a bunch of ripp off miners get it in the neck?
Nobody I have spoken to, including Libs are totally against the Tax. Some think there should be a compromise, but everyone thinks the miners are getting away with thievery.
[Brooky would be one of the very few suburbs on the northern beaches that votes ALP]
Sorry, Brookvale voted 56% Liberal in 2007.
“The CFMEU Raiders are in Townsville – hope you have a sad Saturday.”
The poor old Cowboys got absolutely pounded by the Bunnies the other night. Souths are a big side. The Raiders are bigger. At least Jonathan Thurston won’t be on deck to whinge, whine and swear at referees.
The only booth on the northern beaches to vote Labor in 2007 was Dee Why Central, and that very narrowly (50.8%).
“Sorry, Brookvale voted 56% Liberal in 2007.”
Did it? I stand corrected then. I was sure there were one or two areas up there that voted Lab…