The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.
Other results from the poll:
• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.
• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.
• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.
• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.
[I’ve just said that I expect Rudd to win the next election. Am I wrong?]
no nooooooooooo
ABBOTT WILL BRING BACK ABBOTS WORSE THAN WORKCHOICES.
First misreprentation –
[On climate change, the government is now a policy-free zone.]
[Gary – I agree. In fact, Rudd looks like a happy warrior right now. Sometimes, popularity can be a real burden. Maybe it’s good he’s lost his high ratings.]
yes even the whole rating all over may have made people think.
as long as they do not be come like sheep or the let the msm be the pied piper
my say
interesting to hear about the goings on in the Tassie Parliament. Seems like the Greens were the mouse that roared before the election and are now just meek mices sitting on the govt benches.
[On the RSPT, it is also hard to imagine a more misconceived approach to policy and politics. The policy is clearly going to achieve the opposite from what it intended. Far from creating a tax regime that will encourage mining while delivering a greater share of the booty for taxpayers, it looks likely to cause a lot of trouble for future mining investment and to harm the industry.]
Not proven at all.
First misreprentation = First misrepresentation
GG
[Diogs,
“Am I wrong?”
You need me to answer that question for you?]
Yes you do. Because if you say I’m wrong, then you’re saying Rudd will lose the next election. You are wedged.
Conspiracy theory coming up!
Labor has been slowly recovering in the polls over the last few weeks so Murdock’s mob gets out a dummy Galaxy to buck the trend so his media can keep the “Rudd Labor in trouble” theme going 😉
OOoh doom and gloom the Govt may lose Flynn. 🙂
[As far as the politics of the tax is concerned, it is the complete, designer-brand
fiasco.]
The government and union ads haven’t even started yet.
[Galaxy to buck the ]
where did they suddenly spring from come on
Gary,
Agree. The rent resources tax delivered record exploration and exploitation as did the Gold Tax.
Everyone knows there are no restaurants in Australia since the FBT closed them all down. And, don’t forget Native Title closed down Australia and we are all living in caves hunting kangaroos to sustain ourselves.
Diog
What sort of crazy logic is your 107? You should check out that fallacy website.
Diogs,
You are wrong even when you are wrong.
rua, We’ll all be rooned!
Will the Galaxy poll results be released in full? Or will we have to make do with the CM report.
johncanb
It’s pretty straightforward.
I said Rudd would win the next election.
If GG says I’m wrong about that, he’s saying Rudd would lose the next election.
Effective political leadership involves persuasion, i.e. the capacity to instill in the voting public a sense of common purpose, centred around clearly imagined and articulated policies and, beneath these, values, ideals etc. A cheap name for this is “salesmanship”.
(But if the product is a dud, or if there is no product at all…)
What we have in Rudd is an uncharismatic wonk with a superlative tongue who due to egotism and bad counsel cannot relinquish control of his party’s key sales work to its superior communicators.
The voting public don’t know who he is and don’t know what he’s trying to flog.
Garrett didn’t even know the ETS was being dumped. He read it in the paper.
[ENVIRONMENT minister Peter Garrett has made the extraordinary admission that he was first made aware of the government’s decision to jettison the emissions trading scheme when it was revealed in the Sydney Morning Herald in April.
“That was an announcement and a decision that was leaked and I found out about it when it was leaked,” Mr Garrett told Sky News Saturday Agenda.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/environment-minister-peter-garrett-learnt-of-ets-backflip-in-newspaper/story-e6frg6xf-1225875780361
[And if it is the ETS that has caused this fall in support why would those people choose Tone? I don’t quite get the logic behind that argument.]
HEAD IN SAND.
You blokes are unbelievable! The falls got to do with Rudd’s GBNT on miners.
Queenslands a mining state, and we have seen the same thing in WA. Please pull your heads out of your proverbials and deal with the reality that Rudd’s GBNT is hugely unpopular out here in mining country, whether the Labor supporters like it or not.
Inner Westie,
Too bad you bought the full set of that Bob Brown charisma bypass correspondenc classed with the added incompetence option. You too can have have 30 years of public life without an achievement.
Truthy
You can add Rann to Bligh on the RSPT.
[THE Rann government has warned Kevin Rudd that four Labor-held seats in South Australia could fall unless changes demanded by mining giant BHP Billiton are made to the proposed resource super-profits tax. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/rudd-warned-labor-seats-at-risk-over-proposed-mining-tax/story-e6frgczf-1225875702692
Diogs,
The reports I’ve read are that Rudd is quite happy to have a protracted battle with the miners re the RSPT.
Do you see Rann and Bligh’s comments as encouraging the miners to settle or filling them with false hope they might be able to win?
[The government and union ads haven’t even started yet.]
I think the Workchoices Ad’s showed that no matter how much you spend, a pile of horse shit still smells like a pile of horse shit.
The GBNT on miners will have as much opposition after the ad campaign as it does now, the punters views are firming.
[THE Rann government has warned Kevin Rudd that four Labor-held seats in South Australia could fall unless changes demanded by mining giant BHP Billiton are made to the proposed resource super-profits tax. ]
Except it has done no such thing – just a labor figure, whoever that is?
Maybe the Rudd government should try the argument that if you don’t put a fair tax on minerals as they’re mined, you’ll never be able to tax it, as mining leaves a great big hole in the ground, (in contrast to other industries which keep on giving in terms of company tax).
My two cents’ worth:
– Rudd will win the next election. My prediction is a 2PP in the 52-53 range, and probably an increased majority in seat terms.
– But he has massively damaged his “personal brand” (sorry about the corporate-speak) with his handling of the ETS. He said it was “the greatest moral challenge of our time”, and that to delay would be cowardice, etc. Then he turns around and says (words to the effect of) “best to wait till a more expedient time”. It’s as if Churchill had walked into the House of Commons after the fall of France, and said, “let’s make peace with Hitler”. The end outcome is people thinking “did we ever know who Rudd was in the first place?”.
– Abbott has done a reasonable job of leading the Opposition (better than I expected when he got the job). He won’t win, or get all that close, but the Liberals will do better than anyone would have predicted six months ago.
– I was amazed, though, at the shambolic way he handled the policy costings. He didn’t need to even go there at the time of the budget reply – there’s no rule that says you must do so. He could have just said “we’ll release our costings before the election, but not till we’re good and ready”. Tanner et al would have started hyper-ventilating, but that would have been a minor problem compared to the way the Liberals actually handled it, playing “pass the parcel”.
– I am cynical about virtually everyone on climate change. Labor sees it as political fodder. The Nationals and about half the Liberals don’t even think it’s happening. The Greens certainly don’t want the problem to be solved – why would anyone vote for them if their raison d’être ceased to exist? (Far better to be able to indulge in earnest hand-wringing and blame of others). Judging on actions (as distinct from words), about the only senior politician who seems really committed to the cause is Malcolm Turnbull!
Aguirre,
[If a proportion of his own supporters are starting to believe the narrative on Rudd, and are coming up with a whole new set of things he’s doing wrong, of course his personal ratings are going to go down.]
What this shows is that the campaign to target Rudd personally and bring him down (he was always the major factor in the Labor victory against Howard and the key to the Coalition regaining government), has been successful beyond the most optimistic dreams of the MSM and their Coalition pawns.
They have not only succeeded in swinging across the main target (the swingers in the middle) against Rudd, but they have been able to sow enough doubt in the minds of the solid centre/left supporters to such an extent that their support is falling off the cliff also.
Classic example is most of the posts so far on this thread and previous ones and it is as much to do with media shaping of opinion, as anything Rudd is supposed to have done wrong, which in my assessment is very little and mostly overblown and unjustified criticism by boot-strapping and the continual flooding of media commentary and mantra and especially through blogs and comments sections in media pieces.
The likes of Troothy and GP are classic examples of this repeated mantra and this stuff floods the comments sections of media pieces.
For solid centre left supporters to fall for it, shows just how effective it can be over time. A classic example of it was the way that the right wing media and supporters sabotaged Turnbull and the ETS through a massive e-mail and talk-back radio campaign.
That was mobilised in double quick time and destroyed Turnbull’s leadership and Coalition support for an ETS in less than two weeks. The Lib moderates folded like a damp squib, sabotaging not only Turnbull’s leadership, but Hockeys in the process. The rabid right and their mining/energy backers won and they are intent on winning with the RSPT battle also.
[Do you see Rann and Bligh’s comments as encouraging the miners to settle or filling them with false hope they might be able to win?]
Neither. Rann and Bligh don’t much care what the miners do.
The State Premiers are simply taking out insurance. If the RSPT turns into a political debacle for Federal Labor (which is not the outcome I expect, but I guess there’s a chance it will), then Bligh and Rann will say “don’t blame us, we tried to get a peace deal”.
Dyno,
Could you please go in to more of a rant mode like Truthy and GP.
It concerns me when Liberals argue their points intelligently.
119
Diog – I have said all along that Labor didn’t plan the announcement about the ETS, that it was sprung upon them.
Which means that there was no time to take it to caucus, or to discuss it with Garrett.
I would assume – and can see no reason why not to – that if the ‘story’ hadn’t got out somehow, that it would have gone through the normal processes, and indeed may have come out of these with some modifications.
I have previously suggested that it might be worth somebody’s while to find out how the story got out. It literally sprang out of nowhere, to the point that Mrn Frgsn, the first Minister to be questioned on the issue, had not been briefed.
Rudd presented the legislation to Parliament and it was rejected.
And then he gave up…
The leader you describe as “brave” decided it was too hard to get out there and mobilise the people with urgent, persistent and compelling messages about the greatest moral challenge of our time. He decided it was too heavy a political undertaking to roll up his sleeves and persuade the people to back him in his campaign to see the legislation through, to apply extreme pressure to the Coalition by pledging a joint sitting of parliament if necessary.
How can you honour this man? This feeble, wimpy, scaredy cat entrusted with our and our families’ futures? How does his leadership (so-called) compare with that of your numero uno, Jesus Christ?
GG
I’m not sure about Rann, he’s probably just telling Rudd the political reality. He hasn’t said anything publicly, although Foley has made unhappy noises about the mining tax after initially being an enthusiast (Foley is a self-confessed “not very sharp tool”).
I think Bligh is just doing her job and trying to do the best thing by her state.
dyno – one thing you are guaranteed is that the miners will yell and scream like banshees until they do a deal and back down. That’s how these people negotiate. They’re like this every day of their lives. Bully, bully, bully, then deal.
But Rudd is holding all the cards.
But like I said, the biggest story today is that interest rates are likely to be on hold until August and then are going to climb.
Rudd can’t wait for 1 July.
Inner westie,
You’re a long way from Kansas, Toto.
Dyno, if all Libs were as reasonable and well balanced as you us Laborites would be in big trouble 😉
[dyno – one thing you are guaranteed is that the miners will yell and scream like banshees until they do a deal and back down. That’s how these people negotiate. They’re like this every day of their lives. Bully, bully, bully, then deal.]
I basically agree with this.
On the other hand, you could have inserted the words “the Australian Labor Party” for “the miners”, and I also would have agreed with that.
People don’t achieve positions of power by being nice.
Vera, too kind. And welcome back!
I know that the letters page of the SMH is not very representative of anything, but it’s interesting how many writers totally disbelieve X-trata. I expect that sort of cynicism is more widespread. Remember, most people work for big companies. They know exactly what they’re like.
dyno – Rudd’s finally worked out that being nice with people like the miners just don’t cut it. In fact, being nice to them is totally disrespectful.
z
[Diog – I have said all along that Labor didn’t plan the announcement about the ETS, that it was sprung upon them.
Which means that there was no time to take it to caucus, or to discuss it with Garrett. ]
Huh. They clearly made the decision to dump it between the kitchen cabinet and the budget papers reflect that decision. Of course they could have discussed it with Garrett.
Cheers dyno
Diogs,
Now that you are thinking, you’ll understand my broader point of not to accept simplistic interpretations of comments and actions. Don’t forget that Rann is Rudd’s best mate among the Premiers and ran interference against Brumby regarding the Health reforms.
[The State Premiers are simply taking out insurance. If the RSPT turns into a political debacle for Federal Labor (which is not the outcome I expect, but I guess there’s a chance it will), then Bligh and Rann will say “don’t blame us, we tried to get a peace deal”.]
You obviously don’t live out here in miner country like I do.
I love people from the big cities telling us that no one out here in mining country cares about the GBNT. Absolute and total ROT. It’s going to be the number 1 deciding issue for a lot of punters out here come polling day. And just like Workchoices it won’t be a matter of advertising, and prattling off government lines to convince the voters, their minds are already made up.
[dyno – one thing you are guaranteed is that the miners will yell and scream like banshees until they do a deal and back down. That’s how these people negotiate. They’re like this every day of their lives. Bully, bully, bully, then deal.]
LOLZ, I love the Labor denial.
It’ll be Rudd doing the dealing and backing down, not the other way around. This is hurting Rudd where it hurts the most… the polling booth.
[It’ll be Rudd doing the dealing and backing down, not the other way around. This is hurting Rudd where it hurts the most… the polling booth.]
REMINDER: Even Truthy thinks Rudd is going to win the election.
141
Difference between coming to a decision and getting around to discussing it with the relevant parties.
In hindsight there’s always time you could have spent consulting with someone. At the time, however, you think you’ve got X number of days/weeks/months before you need to do it.
I’ve always been intrigued at Labor conferences how pleased Ministers are to see each other (state level). It was explained to me by one of them that they genuinely don’t get to spend much time together, and the higher upper they are, the less time they spend with colleagues.
If you were wanting to have a difficult conversation with Garrett, and thought you had a reasonable amount of time to do so (I’m assuming that there was a date set for the official announcement) it might be quite difficult to co ordinate.
And I would also expect you wouldn’t want to do it by phone.
What if political scientists covered the news?
http://www.slate.com/id/2256068/
GG
Seek and you will find.
Knock and it will be opened.
Split a piece of wood and I am there.
LOL
(It’s a fun game…)
Laocoon
[ have mentioned this before and will add it again as a constructive suggestion – Labor needs to order a halt to any deep ocean (>2000 feet) drilling for oil
Do we actually do any of that in Oz? Was that one in the Timor Sea (?) that deep?]
The short answer is “not yet”. But we have already given approvals for expanded oil exploration into areas such as these. If those were acted on this problem could occur here. We should just make clear that they can’t yet drill in deep water until there is a technically proven solution if anything goes wrong. Before then, it should be passive exploration techniques only.