The Courier Mail has published a poll of federal voting intention among Queensland voters, which shows the Liberal National Party leading 52-48 on two-party preferred compared with 50.4-49.6 in Labor’s favour at the 2007 election. The only primary vote figure we are given is 35 per cent for Labor, which compares with 42.9 per cent at the federal election (hopefully more detail will be forthcoming later, one way or another). If normal Galaxy practice was followed the poll would have had 800 respondents and a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent. A swing of that size would deliver the LNP Flynn and Longman, and allow it to retain Dickson, Herbert and Bowman (all notionally Labor after the redistribution) – if it was uniform, which it wouldn’t be. Labor-held Dawson and Leichhardt in far north Queensland are likely to swing above the state average, whereas Labor would presumably remain optimistic about Longman, and possibly also Coalition-held Dickson, Ryan and Hinkler. Geographic breakdowns from the poll would have been nice, although the sample sizes would probably be too small to give them much substance.
Other results from the poll:
• Two-thirds of respondents believe the government has done a bad job of explaining the resource super profits tax.
• Eighty per cent of respondents disapprove of taxpayer funds being used to fund the government’s advertising campaign, a question which basically amounts to a “kick me” sign attached to the government’s back.
• The Coalition leads 50 per cent to 42 per cent as best party to manage they economy, on which Newspoll gave Labor its first lead in modern memory in late March, just before its current troubles began.
• The Prime Minister is seen as in touch with everyday issues by 39 per cent, and “more talk than action” by 52 per cent.
Gary – I agree. In fact, Rudd looks like a happy warrior right now. Sometimes, popularity can be a real burden. Maybe it’s good he’s lost his high ratings.
Gary
Lots of voters choose based on intangible gut feelings. Emotion plays a much bigger part in the choice than strategists like to think. The choice need not be rational.
[This idea that Rudd can’t sell a message has one flaw. The 2007 election.]
You could use that example to say that the argument that the MSM is against Rudd is flawed as well. They are the same media as during 2007.
That “Lefty” Peter van Onselen is correct –
[Rudd may be watching his left and right flanks get peeled away to the Greens and the Coalition, hence his decline in the polls. But any voter with centrist tendencies is still likelier to vote Labor than Liberal, and most of the loss of Labor primary support to the Greens will return to the Labor Party under our compulsory preferential system.]
Cuppa
I agree the government has done a great job running the economy. I have even suggested ways they shoudl sell that message more. But even though I do a lot of work in economics myself and follow that field closely, there is more to politics and elections than just economics. Other policy issues matter – look at workchoices. Labor shoudl remember that most opinioon polls in 2007 but an ETS in teh same level of priority.
[ have mentioned this before and will add it again as a constructive suggestion – Labor needs to order a halt to any deep ocean (>2000 feet) drilling for oil. There is no way to fix the problems. The BP Deepwater Horizon disaster is going to get worse as the slick spreads around to the Atlantic coast of the USA.]
Rubbish most australians dont even care what happens in the us.
and may be some dont even know where it is, and may be they watch the news and just forget it.
If you ask a non switched on friend, they look at you blankly and just keep raving on about well my family etc and my such and such and so and so on.
The people that come here do not think like that but we are very very few indeed
unfortunately.
most of my friends so called would even not know what time of the day it was unless there house was on fire.
[You could use that example to say that the argument that the MSM is against Rudd is flawed as well. They are the same media as during 2007.]
A red herring. I wasn’t discussing media bias.
[Lots of voters choose based on intangible gut feelings. Emotion plays a much bigger part in the choice than strategists like to think. The choice need not be rational.]
True but I’m singling out those that have moved away from Rudd due to the ETS. Again, why would they vote for Abbott knowing he is against an ETS and thinks climate change is crap?
rosa
[Tanner and Faulkner et al must have also been in the room. Which just goes to show that sometimes the smartest people do the dumbest thing.]
The article says Tanner, Wong and Combet opposed the dumping of the ETS.
Swan and Gillard told Rudd to kill it.
jaundiced view from the last thread re BP,
[Just look at those numbers, and they still might survive as a company.
That’s the amazing thing. These companies – like the US financial outfits leading up the the GFC, are so big that they lose sight of their place in the world, and so do the government regulators. ]
There were warnings 20 years ago about the “Globalisation” of companies and how they would become so powerful that they would be able to buy and sell governments and it was certainly something that I personally saw as a major threat to democratic governments, especially in countries with narrow based economies and smaller economies.
Of course all that has come to pass, it is another form of colonisation especially in countries controlled by dictatorships and Juntas whereby huge companies such as PB, BHP-B, Rio Tinto, GM and more so even the big banking and finance institutions.
Standard & Poors irresponsible & unjustified downgrading of Qld’s credit rating, is a classic example of how a Financial giant can control to some degree the economy of a whole State. Anna Bligh’s desperate attempts to regain the AAA rating has forced her down the track of selling off State assets and other measures that have crippled her political capital.
A similar thing is happening with the mining giants now trying to control the federal Government. The huge, multinational, global corporations have had enormous influence in US States and Federal Government for years and even with a weakening of their power through the GFC, they are still demonstrating that they have incredible power over systems of governance.
It’s called the “Power of the Purse” and it is incredibly powerful when linked to a global media empire that is in a position of influencing the political process in multiple countries in support of its corporate colleagues.
Strong and effect governments that don’t follow the corporate line can be easily threatened and brought down by weaker, opponents that are prepared to sell their souls to get into power to carry out their master’s bidding at the expense and to the detriment of the common good.
Corporations are only interested in furthering the interests of their outrageously wealthy shareholders and executives, not the common people, who are only tools and the means of production of wealth for these global cretins.
[Lots of voters choose based on intangible gut feelings. Emotion plays a much bigger part in the choice than strategists like to think. The choice need not be rational]
Right, so when the media, marching to and propelling the Opposition’s cause, run the mantra for many months that:
[Home Insulation Program = You will die in a housefire]
What do you imagine would be the effect on those emotional, non-rational reactions of a politically-disengaged populace?
[Home Insulation Program = You will die in a housefire
What do you imagine would be the effect on those emotional, non-rational reactions of a politically-disengaged populace?]
I agree cuppa and have argued that point before. I’m not even convinced it was the ETS that caused the shift.
I don’t agree with a lot of the talk here. We’re talking about the reasons for Rudd losing popularity at the same time his party is recovering in the polls. It just adds to the BS narrative that’s been getting ramped up. The sooner you realise that everything – everything – Rudd does is going to get criticised in some way, the easier it will be to read what’s happening in a realistic light.
BB is right when he talks about Rudd being an engineer rather than a statesman. And it applies well to the RSPT. But what of the ETS and the insulation scheme? He didn’t tinker with them until they were perfect. He moved on from them. The analogy falls flat right there. In both those cases he did the pragmatic thing and got lambasted for it. And now with the RSPT he’s sticking to his guns and, once again, getting lambasted for it.
The opposition offer nothing of substance. Which presents its own problems for them. But it also gives nothing concrete to compare Labor’s position to. And so they can be compared to any made-up “ideal” you like. Which is happening all the time. Too green, not green enough, too weak, too hardline, too image-focused, not image-focused enough, can’t sell a message, over-selling a message, too inclined to blame others, too inclined to blame himself, too autocratic, not autocratic enough. You name it, he’s been accused of it.
It’s all encapsulated in the electorate’s view of an ETS. We want one, we think it’s vital, but we don’t want to pay for it. Make it happen, Rudd, and we might give you a pass mark. Fall too far on one side or the other, and we will roast you alive.
Or the GFC – how did that go? There’s a recession coming, Rudd. Waddaya gonna do about it? Quick, hurry! It’s on its way! No time to think, you’re the boss now. Oh… you did. Well, that’s all right then. But wait a minute – why didn’t you reform the OH&S laws first? No time? Well it’s too late to do it now. Anyway, what recession? I don’t see any recession. All I see is a bunch of potential house fires and some school halls. Huh. Abbott was right, we shouldn’t have done anything.
I expect that sort of talk from Coalition supporters and most journalists. There’s something in it for them. But when I see his own supporters running around waving their hands in the air and screaming “Fire!”, I get a bit edgy.
Aguirre, we need to be realistic. Whilst the 2PP is creeping up in Newspoll (49,50,51) Rudd’s personal ratings have plummeted. They fell by a large margin in the latest fortnight when he didnt do much wrong, and Abbott had all the mistakes.
Other than ads explain how Rudd can sell the mining tax message better than he has in parliament, in interviews and even in a specially called press conference on the matter.
I’ve watched all of these and thought he has done a good job of it. However we know most people don’t watch any of them and they are not covered in the MSM unless there is a slip up.
TTH’s reaction to this poll = “giggity, giggity, giggity, giggity, giggity, giggity, goo”
Mine = at least Labor will reduce their majority hopefully causing a hung parliament.
Goodness, the whiners are out in force this morning. Must be the prunes giving everyone the ruins.
Diogs, Governments change very rarely in Australia and the ingredients for change are not there. Your thoughts about voters deciding with their gut will be put out with the rest of the rubbish you spout. Some of you guysd spend too much time on the theatrics rather than the substance.
Rudd’s decison to delay the CPRS was probably the bravest decison he’s made. Apart from the impossiblity of the current Senate and there being no clear consensus on what CC policy should be introduced, Rudd has shown extreme bravery by deciding to delay the legislation. Of course it is far easier for the commentariat to accuse him of cowardice.
As far as I can see, Rudd and the Government are winning the RSPT debate. Not only that, whenever conservative commentators opine the opposite they are always caught with the reality that Abbott and the Libs are unelectable. PVO is the latest caught up with this dilemma. No one is saying there won’t be a tax.
My perception is that the conservatives have run up the white flag.
Andrew explain the PPM.
Socrates
[have mentioned this before and will add it again as a constructive suggestion – Labor needs to order a halt to any deep ocean (>2000 feet) drilling for oil]
Do we actually do any of that in Oz? Was that one in the Timor Sea (?) that deep?
[Mine = at least Labor will reduce their majority hopefully causing a hung parliament.]
They may pick up seats else where.
The advertising has been all one way so far. Let’s see in a couple of months.
[hopefully causing a hung parliament]
How would that benefit the country? Here we are, running the risk of becoming a literal banana republic thanks to the crazy Abbott and billionaire mining multinationals. They deserve to be kicked to the kerb, bigtime, and the ‘best’ you can hope for is the instability of a hung parliament. I’d have thought that respecters of democracy would be wishing and working for the utter defeat of the sectional interests and political extremists that seek to subvert our democracy.
Gary, I think the insulation mea culpa started the slide, the ETS accelerated it. I am not convinced the RSPT is a loser in the long run
Gary the PPM has shifted against Rudd in the past few months, and Abbott, a far worse potential PM is scoring better than Turnbull and much better than Nelson. I dont think Rudd is at risk of losing the PPM or the election. But I think it is crucial that the govt reassess its recent strategy.
That’s my point, Andrew. We don’t exist in a vacuum. If a proportion of his own supporters are starting to believe the narrative on Rudd, and are coming up with a whole new set of things he’s doing wrong, of course his personal ratings are going to go down.
What’s Rudd supposed to have done wrong in the past two weeks? The costings for the RSPT advertising were in the budget, and the announcement was made and defended in the main by Swan. In anything, the party ought to take the hit for that. So take it out of the equation, and what has Rudd actually done wrong? Meltdown on TV? No. Public faux pas? No. Get made a fool of in Parliament? No – quite the opposite.
Get a whole bunch of negative press – again? Well, yes, but that’s always the case.
It’s just the weight of negative press kicking in, and some nervous nellies on his own side starting to believe this confected idea that Gillard would be a better leader. You can bet all you like that if the Opposition are talking that one up, it’s because they think they’ve got something on Gillard.
We here rabbit on and on about the bias in the media and how awful it is. And yet it only takes a dip in the polls and we’re prepared to fall for it too, hook line and sinker.
An excellent precis, Aguirre. The gnatlike memory of the Australian voter is the stuff of legends. They’re like survivors of the Titanic arguing over where they sit in the lifeboat, and how uncomfortable those lifejackets are. They don’t see why everybody else couldn’t have made it to a lifeboat like they did. It wasn’t all that hard, was it?
But I disagree with you here:
I’ve never disputed that the Insulation and BER programs weren’t anything but lifesavers for the Australian economy. They were put in place with not a moment to spare and they achieved their purpose, ironically allowing survivors to indulge their wowserish tendencies and whinge about the details post facto.
The GFC response, and its success is such a no brainer that Rudd thought the public would just automatically remember it and give the government the very great credit it was due. But the less Rudd and Swan crowed about it, and the more the coalition white-anted it, the more the public thought there might have been a point to all the carping and sledging.
The GFC responses were great for Australia, but there was insufficient follow through. The government should have driven a stake through the Coalition’s heart over it. Instead they coasted on believing the punters wouldn’t be susceptible to a natural inclination to kid themselves that they’d never needed help in the first place.
http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/06/mining-tax-facts-site-launch/
we should realy be promoting this site as they have all the questions and answers on this subject.
Its not a matter of falling for it Aguirre. The MSM campaign has, for the first time, bitten in the polls, and mostly self-inflicted by Rudd. He miscalculated that the electorate would tolerate his insulation and ETS responses
BB, the government has been extremely reticient in spruiking its economic achievements. Howard and Costello were relentless in doing this
[BB, the government has been extremely reticient in spruiking its economic achievements.]
Crud. Rudd et al say very little else.
GG
[Diogs, Governments change very rarely in Australia and the ingredients for change are not there.]
That’s exactly what Howard kept saying before the last election.
Amigo GG
Good to see someone talking sense! 😀
The supposed concerned ‘Labor friendly” PBs who cracked a sad when their informal votes and OHs’ preferencing the Libs didn’t get rid of Rann are out again in anticipation of getting rid of Kev methinks 😉
More egg on faces coming up?
GG’s perspective on the question of delay:
Rudd’s decison to delay the CPRS was probably the bravest decison he’s made.
Rudd’s perspective on the question of delay:
The ”wait and see” position would be ”absolute political cowardice” and an ”absolute failure of leadership”.
Andrew – Rudd, Gillard etc can talk until they’re blue in the face. Indeed, I’m tired of listening to their talking points. But the MSM aren’t itnerested. They’re only interested in the manufactured crisis du jour, In fact, if Shanahan and Milne couldn’t use the word “crisis” they’d have to retire. Certainly be tongue-tied.
But as I keep saying, I don’t see how the mining companies can keep up their campaign during an election campaign without pissing off a LOT of voters and sending the greens running into the arms of labor (where they’re probably heading anyway). Am I wrong? Am I missing something about the great washed and unwashed?
Probably the most important story today was that interest rates are probably on hold until about August but could go up another couple of points by early next year.
Rudd is going to pull the trigger A.S.A.P.
the miners are running out of time.
[when I see his own supporters running around waving their hands in the air and screaming “Fire!”, I get a bit edgy.]
are these people you know or on here.
MR. Rudd needs all the moral support we can give him, dont let one person get by with a negative remark.
All this started with the msm, for instance if they had said,.
The ets has to be dumped because abbott will not pass it.
Then you would of seen a different reaction out there,. so when this bought up thats just what i say and the look on the faces is one of O yes i suppose so
Funny thing though if abbott was their leader then bad policy visits us all even jounos.
You know my hobby horse here that one person bisopspur black get in to me about
calling me a bigot,
Well if abbott was in he May get rid of IVF completely on medicare, may close down abortion cancelling clinics and May be who know take the pill off the Pbs.
Now if not successful he would divide the country.
He will i would think follow is fundamental catholic conscious no matter.
i would say there is only 1 percent of the above left but abbott may be one of them.
And of course workchoices .
ABBOTS WORSE THAN WORKCHOICES AND HE WILL BRING IT WITH HIM
Don’t over-estimate the strength of the Mainstream Media. They’re so busy looking at their belly buttons they don’t realise that nobody really cares what the hell the say. Does anyone seriously think that Dennis Shanahan will influence ONE vote at the next election.
[Of course it is far easier for the commentariat to accuse him of cowardice.]
Especially when Rudd himself said to delay it was an act of cowardice. He endlessly said it had to be passed before Copenhagen and now says it’s shelved until all the other countries do something. He’s been caught out by his own BS and that’s reflected in his approval ratings. The only thing keeping him alive is that Abbott is even worse.
;rosa]
not sure if you are female and you dont have tosay of course,
but if so i think, the men on this site have no idea about how abbott really thinks about
women’s issues.
yes they laugh and joke about the ironing well so did i. but there is more to that than meets the eye its the symbol of it that revolted me
[said to delay it was an act of cowardice. He endlessly said it had to be passed before Copenhagen and now says it’s shelved until all the other countries do something. He’s been caught out by his own BS and that’s reflected in his approval ratings]
How come then the polls where showing lost interes in the ets. where they only liberal people
[That “Lefty” Peter van Onselen is correct]
i thought he was right wing
Forgive my snarkiness, but the impression I’m getting here is that it’s better for us to have salesman leading the country than policy-makers. Am I reading that correctly?
Perhaps the message is that there’s no point running the country properly if no-one knows you’re doing it. But I still think that’s more an indictment on our media and electorate than it is of our government.
No doubt over time this government will refine the art of smacking down opponents and critics. But that won’t actually make the economy run any better. And that is, after all, their primary function.
Oh, and BB, I don’t know how you can disagree with my comment above. I’m just saying what makes me edgy. You can certainly dispute that it applies to you. And you may well be correct there. But I am seeing it happen.
vera
I expect Rudd to win the election and get dumped before the next one.
Sorry to disappoint you My Say, but I usually tick male rather than female on census forms. Don’t know why I thought of Rosa Luxembourg when I signed up. But after that I’ve been stuck in a gender trap.
Totally agree with you about Tony though. The only policy he would die in a ditch for is total dominion over female reproduction. Nothing else really matters to him.
[I expect Rudd to win the election and get dumped before the next one.]
Rudd will never be dumped. He will retire as leader to promote generational change. Probably in his 3rd or 4th term
The problem the Government now has is they seem quite out of their depth and are close to being written off by the public. Their only protection at the moment is the absolutely lamentable state of the Opposition. Most of the Government’s problems are of their own making.
On climate change, the government is now a policy-free zone. The Government clearly decided they would not contest Abbott’s deceitful GBNT claims and would just walk away from the issue. In a sense, in the minds of many voters, by backing away from the issue, they basically conceded that Abbott could be right – that their CPRS/ETS was not much more than a GBNT that would not accomplish much in the way of carbon pollution abatement. So they were picked off by the deniers on the right, and greens on the left. Even when the Greens offered the Government an alternative in the form of a carbon tax, they basically decided not to run with it. This has to rank as one the most feeble exercises any of us is likely to see. It is an object lesson in how to make yourself appear irrelevant, uncommitted and untrustworthy.
On the RSPT, it is also hard to imagine a more misconceived approach to policy and politics. The policy is clearly going to achieve the opposite from what it intended. Far from creating a tax regime that will encourage mining while delivering a greater share of the booty for taxpayers, it looks likely to cause a lot of trouble for future mining investment and to harm the industry. As far as the politics of the tax is concerned, it is the complete, designer-brand fiasco. The government has picked a fight with opponents who are well and truly capable of fighting back, and who are in a position to cause the government a lot of harm. Furthermore, the government has positioned itself – by its rhetoric – so that any serious attempt to redress the flaws in the policy will be a political disaster. The tax needs to be modified. There is no doubt about that. And yet if it is modified, the Government will be depicted as weak and incompetent – as a government that will walk away from its promise to get a ‘fair share’ for all Australians. This is an absolute gift to the Opposition.
On the matter of asylum-seekers, the government now finds itself in the worst of all worlds. Once again, this is a situation of its own making. It was quite obvious that if the Howard policy was reversed, the numbers of unauthorized arrivals by sea would escalate. The government clearly underestimated the numbers involved and they have not had a clear idea of how to handle the consequences. The issue is straight forward. If you are going to treat boat-people humanely, you can expect them to arrive on our shores. And therefore you have to be prepared to deal with that situation and sell your position to the public. But we now have a situation where the government looks like it is trying to deny reality. The boats are coming but there are not adequate facilities available for them to be ‘processed’ and the Government has tried to wish away the problem by saying it will just not process claims from Afghans and Sri Lankans.
There is a completely defensible policy position that says asylum-seekers have to be dealt with humanely. But you do not hear this position being consistently articulated by the Government. The Minister has done so occasionally. But in general, voters could be forgiven for thinking the Government just does not really know what to do.
The fate of the Rudd Government may not yet be decided. Abbott and the Liberals are not trustworthy and have no policies worthy of the name. Yet Rudd is very close to throwing away his office. Considering his Government is so highly centralized, if Rudd does lose, the fault will be mostly all his own work. Just the same, you have to wonder why senior ministers and the caucus itself have been so quiescent in this debacle.
If, as is likely, the global economy takes a tumble in coming weeks, voters will have to ask themselves who they should rely on. The answer should be a foregone conclusion, but it is not so. Rudd has only himself to blame for this.
Inner Westie,
Rudd presented the legislation to Parliament and it was rejected. If you and your Greens ratbag mates are now announcing your fulsome support for the Government’s ETS. A bit late, comrade.
Diogs,
For someone with an allegedly (and self proclaimed) superiority of intellect, you over react to short term events, you have a spectacular inability to properly analyse events and people and you have absolutely no perspective or understanding of the consequences of your judgements.
You are well suited to be a doctor.
[That’s exactly what Howard kept saying before the last election.]
Except that that was an 11yo government with Workchoices going full blast.
.[ He’s been caught out by ]
by i would say a no win situation how could you bring in an ets in this financial climate.
and what would be the use if no one esle wanted it.
The greens are the big cause of this if they had said yes we will go with say 6 percent e.g. not 25 then we may be talking about a different thing.
The greens are all over the place thats why i would never ever vote for them
Its amazing in tas, now mckim is towing the line or his he, free bus fares , draining lake Peder etc. the rumor is that they now relaise being in gov, is a whole new ball game. you can say what you like ( if you want to) that is pye in the sky when you get to the nitty gritty and actually see the books so to speak you have to pull your head in, so the greens are very quite with the demise of the forestry industry in tas i wonder if they are now holding their heads in shame every day there are talks how to save it funny that.
, they said where never there. Now mckim and his other green sit together in parliment like the rest of crew its so annoying.
GG
I’ve just said that I expect Rudd to win the next election. Am I wrong?
Lenore Taylor’s story (referenced at 9) indicates it was primarily Wayne and Julia who recommended for the ETS to be deferred, primarily as a budget saving measure. Wayne doesn’t surprise me, given he’s Treasurer and right wing and more willing to listen to losers such as Bitar and Arbib. But Julia does surprise me. As a member of the left, she would understand the political nightmare of an ETS deferral, (and that nightmare has come to pass). I hope it was just a simple political mistake by Julia, and not an attempt to weaken Kevin.
And at least we now understand why they sold the backdown so badly. They hadn’t had their meeting to write the script for their response, because the Herald had got hold of the cut and released it before the scheduled script writing meeting. Bit poor that on such an important decision they don’t get their lines right at the time they make the decision rather than afterwards. Their goverance has been shown to be faulty on this. Such a major decision should have gone to Cabinet.
[According to The West, there maay be a deal for “Smaller miners”]
but the gov have alwasy said these would benefit more paper talk i suppose
[I hope it was just a simple political mistake by Julia, and not an attempt to weaken Kevin]
dont you even suggest it Julia imop is the salt of the earth a true blue.
dont start that sort of talk it may catch on
Diogs,
“Am I wrong?”
You need me to answer that question for you?