Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand

The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 voters in the outer southern Perth seat of Brand, held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007 and by Gary Gray thereafter. The two-party vote is said to be 50-50, but it’s hard to square this with primary vote figures of 43 per cent for Labor (3.2 per cent below their result in 2007) and 42 per cent (up 3.4 per cent) for the Liberals. On 2007 preferences it would have been approaching 52-48, pointing to a swing against Labor of 4 per cent. Oddly, we are also told that if the old boundaries were in place the Liberals would be leading 45 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote and 52-48 on two-party (I make it 50-50), even though the redistribution has only boosted Labor 0.4 per cent by Antony Green’s estimation. The poll had a typical Westpoll sample of 406, giving it a high margin-of-error of a bit below 5 per cent.

Other findings:

• Fifty-six per cent of respondents oppposed the resources super profits tax, with only 25 per cent supporting it.

• Julia Gillard was found to be preferred over Kevin Rudd as preferred leader, 34 per cent to 31 per cent.

• Thirty-nine per cent said Tony Abbott’s “gospel truth” remark made them think less of him, against 54 per cent who said it made no difference.

• The government received “poor” ratings of 82 per cent poor rating for handling of the insulation program, 81 per cent for asylum seekers as poor (against 14 per cent good) and 60 per cent for climate change policy (against 29 per cent0 good).

• By contrast, and in good news for Julia Gillard, 46 per cent rated the government’s handling of the school hall construction program as good against 43 per cent poor.

• Respondents were split down the middle on the federal government’s health reform package, rated good by 45 per cent and poor by 46 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,177 comments on “Westpoll: 50-50 in Brand”

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  1. Hmmm I guess credit needs to be due for their economic work in the 80s.
    Let him take Deakin’s spot at number 10 😀

  4. Good to see Insights doing some more indepth investigations, and we’ll finally be able to see both sides of the asylum seeker debate…. the boatpeoples side and the people smugglers side.

    Perhaps Insight might wanna ask the ADF blokes that were blown off the Siev 36 what they think about Rudd’s soft touch policies.

  5. [Hmmm I guess credit needs to be due for their economic work in the 80s.
    Let him take Deakin’s spot at number 10]
    Deakin is the father of Australian liberalism! You should have him above Howard, and at least higher than Holt and Gorton.

  6. The really bad outcome here will be a deterioration in relations between Israel and Turkey and the increased impetus to radicalization of muslims therein.

  11. Perhaps Insight might wanna ask the ADF blokes that were blown off the Siev 36 what they think about Rudd’s soft touch policies.

    Or what they would think of having to forcibly turn around the boats like Tony wants them to do – and how safe that would be…

  13. My top 10 PM’s not necessary in order.

    John Curtain
    Sir Robert Menzies
    John Gorton
    Alfred Deakin
    Ben Chifley
    Andrew Fisher
    Howard Holt
    Bob Hawke
    Gough Whitlam
    George Barton

  14. No imacca i guess we dont know each other.

    Maxine heckled…that I gotta see after her ingracious victory speech on election night 😀

    Maxine is a drop kick IMHO.

    I hope Alexander beats her.

  15. [It’s too hard to have a top 10.]
    I like the fact you include Whitlam but not Fraser. After all, Fraser kept nearly all of Whitlam’s reforms. It is funny how the rabid right of the Liberals say that Whitlam was hopeless, but always fail to mention that Fraser kept 95% of Whitlam’s reforms.

  25. I probably won’t be able to watch too much of this. Maxine is right up against it tonight.

    A stacked audience, stacked panel and a stacked moderator.

    If Maxine comes out of this unscathed tonight, she will deserve a medal!

  27. Jones not stopping cori from interrupting maxine. Jones is a serial interrupter of women on the panel. He really has a gender challenge.

  30. I hope Alexander beats her.

    I will bet a fair deal of money that he won’t.

    Puting him in as the candidate almost shows the Libs have conceeded the seat.

  31. The surprise number seems unlikely to be the 2PP. I cant see how it could have shifted dramatically either way. The libs had a bad fortnight, with labor fighting back on the RSPT with a bad end with publicity over the ads.

    I can see Abbott’s satisfaction having a big drop as per Essential, but would the PPM have changed in Abbott’s favour after his performance in the last fortnight? Cant see it.

    The MSM are waging very much anti-Rudd not anti-ALP campaign, seeing the leader as the weak point ATM.

    Love how the miners ads forget the “profits” part of the tax’s name. How convenient

  32. [Puting him in as the candidate almost shows the Libs have conceeded the seat.]
    A backhanded compliment, no doubt. Difficult to fault.

  36. The surprise number seems unlikely to be the 2PP. I cant see how it could have shifted dramatically either way.

    That’s why it is a surprise!

  37. “I hope Alexander beats her. ”

    Ha! Not with Truthy Tones the immigrants friend in charge mate!

    So, me for Newspoll, 52 / 48 to the ALP.

    Wonder if the “interesting” # is something to do with the PPM? Rudd has been taking a hammering of late, and even though Abboott has had a bad run as well, I bet people actually expect a lot more of Rudd. No-one i think expects a lot from Abboott. So, if Abbootts #’s stay where they are and Rudds drop, maybe thats interesting??

  39. This Grady(??) man has no idea of what the RSPT aims to do.

    He is Cory Bernardi lite: he just wants to mouth populist sound bites that have no meaning.

  40. From Bernard Keane on Twitter

    [BernardKeane

    Good night. I can’t be bothered staying up to see how much Labor fell by in Newspoll. 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]

  42. Glen@1906

    A Monarch is the best defence against totalitarianism – unless they are also a despot.

    You want to give thanks to the republican Wallace Simpson, Glen. If she hadn’t single-handed removed Edward VIII from his throne history might have been much different. We might have been a republic for over 60 years with the Fuhrer’s representative as President.

  46. The Newspoll will be a concern if Labor’s primary falls further because it seemed to have bottomed out and even edged up in Morgan and last week’s Essential. It just astounds me that Abbott and the rabble are getting the kind of support they are getting ATM, and Labor has to be very careful into simply thinking Abbott will implode like Latham

    Do I sound worried enough??

  47. Mr Grady should get out more. Government agencies quite often make profits but the money is not kept as a profit but instead is returned to Treasury to be spent the following year.

    gee just how out of touch are the young liberals.

  49. Bob Hawke is persistently under-rated imho. Consider only the state of the country – in terms of its morale, its economy and its national finances – when he came to office, compared to their condition when he was rolled. To say nothing of his Government’s contributions to healthcare and education, among others. His front bench was certainly the most talented I can recall, and he ran a proper traditional cabinet. The country was certainly a lot more optimistic and a lot less divided while Hawke was leader. As I say, persistently under-rated.

    My top 5 would have to be Curtin, Chifley, Gough, Hawke and Fisher.

  50. [Maxine is being heckled!]

    Brilliant, absolutely brilliant.

    She really is a smug so and so and needs to be taken down a couple of rungs. Can’t stand her, hopefully she’ll be tossed out next election.

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