Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Unpredictable Roy Morgan has violated the laws of nature by publishing a face-to-face poll on a Thursday (which surely makes more sense than its normal practice of placing it in the news cycle dead zone of late Friday). This has Labor’s two-party lead up 1.5 per cent on the rather unusual previous face-to-face poll, which was half conducted before Christmas and half after new year, from 57-43 to 58.5-41.5. The figures show a pretty straightforward exchange between the two parties on the primary vote, with Labor up two points to 45.5 per cent and the Coalition down 1.5 to 35.5 per cent and the Greens steady on 10.

Elsewhere:

• After 22 years in parliament, Bob McMullan has announced he will not contest the next election, opening a vacancy in his safe Labor ACT seat of Fraser. Susanna Dunkerley of AAP reports that McMullan denies having been pushed, “despite recently declaring his intention to stick around for another term”. Furthermore, James Massola of the Canberra Times reports Annette Ellis is under pressure to make way for new blood in the other ACT seat, Canberra. Constitutional lawyer George Williams, who recently moved to Canberra and was reportedly Kevin Rudd’s choice to contest the safe Sydney seat of Blaxland in 2007, was said to be planning a preselection challenge against McMullan last October. However, a number of reports have identified the front-runner as Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary. Other possible starters named by Massola are Andrew Leigh, Australian National University economist and prolific blogger, and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal heritage who ran in Ginninderra at the 2008 ACT election. Both are factionally unaligned, which might be an asset as they seek to succeed the similarly placed McMullan. Another Canberra Times report mentions Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT MP Andrew Barr and former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. Those whose names were floated but have since ruled themselves out are ACT Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher and prime ministerial chief-of-staff Alister Jordan. Jonathan Pearlman of the Sydney Morning Herald reports an ALP national executive meeting on February 12 is likely to decide whether the candidate will be chosen locally or imposed externally.

• Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports Malcolm Turnbull is “being urged by supporters and business leaders to make a run for New South Wales premier in 2011”, firstly by replacing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse, which is located entirely within his existing electorate of Wentworth. Debnam has now confirmed what he describes as an “open secret”, that he won’t be contesting the seat at the next election. It had already been established that University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton would contest preselection, and numerous others have been named in connection with the seat: former John Howard chief-of-staff Arthur Sinodinos, restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton and barrister Arthur Moses. Also mentioned was Paul Fletcher, before he landed his federal gig in Bradfield. There have also been suggestions, reiterated in Samantha Maiden’s report, that Joe Hockey might assume the seat with Turnbull’s support as an entree to the premiership.

• A couple of Labor national executive preselection determinations that had sliipped through the net. Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor and member of the Right faction, will contest Greenway, which the redistribution has transformed from 4.5 per cent Liberal to 5.8 per cent Labor (the sitting Liberal member, Louise Markus, will contest Macquarie). Holding Redlich lawyer Laura Smyth, whom Andrew Landeryou at VexNews links to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”, will run in the outer eastern Melbourne seat of La Trobe, where Liberal member Jason Wood survived a 5.3 per cent swing in 2007 to hold on by 0.5 per cent. Human Services and Financial Services Minister Chris Bowen will contest McMahon, which is effectively a reincarnation of his existing abolished seat of Prospect.

• Chas Hopkins, 60-year-old former Perth Lord Mayor, has nominated for Labor preselection in the marginal Perth seat of Cowan, where the party has admitted it is struggling to find a replacement for Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly who doesn’t share his connections with Brian Burke. Other confirmed starters are party state executive member Alex Banzic and political staffer Sam Roe.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,647 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

Comments Page 4 of 53
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  1. Has anyone of the pro-Green carbon price support squad bothered to read:

    [15.3 Transition period: Australia’s
    emissions trading scheme to the
    end of 2012 – Garnaut interim report page 390]

    Where Garnaut specifically outlines the disadvantages of such a scheme?

    [The disadvantages are also considerable. The process of learning the
    operations of the new market, and building the financial institutions and
    instruments to support it, would be somewhat delayed. Some uncertainty may
    be introduced about the credibility of post-2012 arrangements. The use of
    some fruitful opportunities for low-cost early abatement would be postponed—
    increasing the cost of meeting more demanding post-2012 trajectories.]

  2. Ellis’s only truly useful contribution has been to act as a carbon sink.

    Offhand, I can’t recall a significant contribution by Lundy but would be happy to be set right on that.

    McMullen is the pick of the bunch but has not been given opportunities commensurate with his talents.

  3. Bob McMullen is a great bloke, he has been in parliament for over 20 years, now in his early 60’s he probably has better things to do.

    He hung in until Labor regained the treasury benches again. Well done Bob – your books will be worth reading. 🙂

  4. Senator Milne in her piece in the Australian today states:

    [There is a solution to this deadlock, one that Ross Garnaut suggested a year ago in his final report, fully expecting the political difficulties involved in legislating for a full trading scheme. ]

    No Senator Milne, Ross Garnaut suggested this scheme as a transition to an ETS. Geez talk about spin.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/interim-carbon-price-preferable-to-time-wasting-political-stunt/story-e6frg6zo-1225822296729

  5. Ross Garnaut:

    [On balance, the Review favours direct movement to an unconstrained
    system, with European Union permits being available for acquittal of Australian
    obligations if the necessary international understandings can be secured.
    Nevertheless, the Review recognises the advantages as well as disadvantages
    of a transition period with fixed prices to the end of 2012, and sees this as a
    legitimate second-best approach.]

    Christine Milne:
    [We are under no illusions that this solution is perfect. It is clearly a third or fourth best solution.]

    The best solution is an ETS, get off your backsides and pass it.

  6. [Such a dirty mind! And how far from the truth! Pernicious, sour, stingy, fraudulent and a bigot……all at once: remarkable.]

    But truthful to the T.

  7. Truthy

    You should have sold your shares in early 2008 and put them into cash deposits, great returns 8-9%. Got rid of my Rio Tinto shares at $112.

  8. [You should have sold your shares in early 2008 and put them into cash deposits, great returns 8-9%. Got rid of my Rio Tinto shares at $112.]

    I did, but I got back into them mid 2009 and made a mint.

    I’ll sit back and watch as the market goes tits up, and then buy back in.

  9. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asia-tracks-US-tumble-after-apf-2027003564.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

    [HONG KONG (AP) — Asian stock markets tumbled Friday after President Barack Obama proposed a sweeping overhaul of Wall Street banks to avert future financial crises.

    Losses spread across most markets and sectors across the region, following an overnight retreat in the U.S. Oil prices rose after trading below $76 a barrel while the dollar lost ground against the yen and euro.

    Obama said he would seek to limit the size and complexity of large financial companies so their collapse wouldn’t imperil the broader financial system and economy, leading to more bailouts at taxpayers’ expense. The move comes amid growing public frustration with Wall Street and bank rescues.]

    Can we call this the Obama Recession?

  11. ru

    [

    Has anyone of the pro-Green carbon price support squad bothered to read:]

    Yes I have.

    [Where Garnaut specifically outlines the disadvantages of such a scheme?]

    I’m sure you are aware that all proposals have advantages and disadvantages. I don’t see this as a surprise. The advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

    Socrates

    [Ratsars

    Why can’t you just admit you are wrong? Most of James Hardies manufacturing isn’t evne in Australia any more; its in the USA. Hard to see how a carbon tax will change that.]

    Ratsars is completely impervious to any facts that demonstrate he is wRONg. He has been shown to be a fool on too many times to count and keeps coming back for more. I’m assuming it’s a masochistic Opus Dei kind of thing. He revels in his ignorance.

  13. Diog

    {Is there a case for a transitional period with a fixed price, rather than immediate
    movement to the unconstrained scheme?
    Many business submissions to the Review argued for low prices in a transition
    period, to reduce uncertainty about effects on costs while firms learned how the
    system worked.
    A low fixed price would greatly reduce and, depending on the price and
    other factors, may obviate the need for payments to trade-exposed, emissionsintensive
    industries during the transition period. This would be a large advantage,
    allowing time for diplomacy to work towards establishing satisfactory sectoral
    agreements.]

    These are Garnaut’s advantages. You are wRONg.

  14. ru

    Given that the ETS is dead, an interim measure now has more advantages than disadvantages. Remember the Garnaut Report was written well before the ETS died.

  15. [Given that the ETS is dead, an interim measure now has more advantages than disadvantages. Remember the Garnaut Report was written well before the ETS died.]

    Garnaut recommended a fixed price as as transition to an ETS post 2012. He said it would cost more to do it this way. So the Greens are inflicting a higher cost by not supporting an ETS.

  16. If the Greens agreed to pass the present ETS, it wouldn’t be dead. There is no reason why the two Libs who voted for it last time wouldn’t vote for it again.

  18. [156 TheTruthHurts

    Such a dirty mind! And how far from the truth! Pernicious, sour, stingy, fraudulent and a bigot……all at once: remarkable.

    But truthful to the T.]

    truthful??….nah….fraudulent to an f

  19. ru and z

    Once the Libs imploded, there was never going to be an ETS which could be crafted which would get enough Lib and cross-bench support to pass. And if we’re using Garnaut as a measuring stick, he said Rudd had watered down the ETS too much and had dropped the target too low.

    I think Troeth might still support it but not the other guy (forget his name). If Labor wants the Greens to vote for it, they will have to beef it up and raise the targets.

  20. The “spin” from the Greens is that Garnaut put forward a fixed price for carbon instead of an ETS, he only mentions it as a transition to an ETS.

    He says it is the second best option and that it will cost more. So please Greens stop telling porkies.

  21. Great to see Crikey.Com attack Australia Day. Well done.

    An annual Aussie tradition spoilt by a media hungry poster(s).

    Now Aussies everywhere will sit around drinking piss all day depressed that the countdown is all in vain.

  22. The Greens teeny weeny tax is, well, virginal. If you are going to get on with having a carbon tax, have a good one. Impose a a heavy-weight tax, but reduce income tax and company tax. They should set out to change the economy, instead of just changing their dating lines.

  24. ru

    [The “spin” from the Greens is that Garnaut put forward a fixed price for carbon instead of an ETS, he only mentions it as a transition to an ETS.]

    I haven’t seen a single Green or anyone say that. Please provide a quote.

    It has always referred to as an interim measure.

  26. [Fraser (ALP 15.1%) and Canberra (ALP 11.8%) are safe seats and with popular sitting members moving aside in an apparently bloodless manner it should set things up well for whoever gets preselected to try and hold the seats.]

    I’d expect swings against ALP in both seats and Humprhies to also safely hold his senate seat.

  28. ru

    [The “spin” from the Greens is that Garnaut put forward a fixed price for carbon instead of an ETS, he only mentions it as a transition to an ETS.]

    I can’t see her say that in that article. She specifically says Garnaut suggested that this be an interim measure if the ETS died.

    [There is a solution to this deadlock, one that Ross Garnaut suggested a year ago in his final report, fully expecting the political difficulties involved in legislating for a full trading scheme.]

  29. Diog so the Greens support an ETS? Great news.

    But oops it is dead, it is a norwegian blue, it is a flawed scheme, it rewards big polluters. Why are the Greens talking about a second rate transition to an ETS that they will never support.

    They are being decietful in using Garnaut and you know it.

  30. [I can’t see her say that in that article. She specifically says Garnaut suggested that this be an interim measure if the ETS died.]

    He did NOT ever say that, he said it was a second rate way to implement an ETS.

  31. [Why are the Greens talking about a second rate transition to an ETS that they will never support.]

    Because it will achieve something instead of the nothing we have at the moment. Something is better than nothing.

  32. [Can we call this the Obama Recession?]

    I think the US markets are up about 50% or so since Obama took office. Unemployment has stopped rising and the outlook is for labour demand to improve steadily through 2010 and beyond. Job losses have more or less ceased in the economy as a whole. Manufacturing output is improving and profits are returning across most sectors, including capital goods, transport, electronics and tech. Net exports are growing again after the most dramatic decline (in 2008) in international trade on record. Capital investment is recovering. The property market has stabilized and values have started to rise in some regions. The USD has picked up since November. The finance sector is no longer on life-support.

    Call it whatever you like, it is a lot better than the Bush collapse. Still, HTT, you won’t be the first punter to lose by making bets against the US economy.

  34. [Because it will achieve something instead of the nothing we have at the moment. Something is better than nothing.]

    Why do we have nothing at the moment?

  35. [Why do we have nothing at the moment?]

    Because the CPRS wasn’t very popular amongst our elected political representatives.

  38. So a couple of flakes from Tassie who really would like to tie themselves to an old growth tree and hug it into enternity, a bag lady from WA and her kiwi graphic design buddy, a young idiot from SA. Combined with a fruit loop from Vic and a no pokies politician who has been spectacularly unsuccesful in stopping pokies, stop the most important legislation of our lifetime.

    No wonder I support the Senate swill being caste aside in the interest of democracy. 🙁

  40. If you think that the northern hemisphere cold stuff offsets the southern hemisphere hot stuff, as suggested by denialists, you might want to play around with the graphs at the following site. In particular, given the statement of Abbott that things are cooling, you might want to compare the first years of the decade with the last couple of years, including the first couple of weeks of this year.

    Warning: (Statistically) One swallow doth not a summer make.

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps

  43. [Dio
    In your experience, how powerful can the placebo effect/belief effect be in overcoming normally fatal conditions?]

    I’ll jump in here, the power of hope is huge.

  46. ru

    I believe that Labor got about 43% of the Senate vote which is a lot less than 50%. Add in Troeth and the other guy and it’s still nowhere near 50%. So more than 50% voted for the people who voted no.

    Boerwar

    ruawake would answer that better than me but there is a lot of evidence that a positive attitude/belief/placebo etc causes a significant improvement in survival of cancer especially.

  49. [190
    Boerwar

    ……you might want to play around with the graphs at the following site. In particular, given the statement of Abbott that things are cooling…..]

    When did he say this?

  50. Boerwar

    There is just as much evidence that the “nocebo” effect is a problem, ie the belief that you are very sick and there is no hope. People with a fatalistic approach to their illness do a lot worse than people who don’t.

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