Unpredictable Roy Morgan has violated the laws of nature by publishing a face-to-face poll on a Thursday (which surely makes more sense than its normal practice of placing it in the news cycle dead zone of late Friday). This has Labor’s two-party lead up 1.5 per cent on the rather unusual previous face-to-face poll, which was half conducted before Christmas and half after new year, from 57-43 to 58.5-41.5. The figures show a pretty straightforward exchange between the two parties on the primary vote, with Labor up two points to 45.5 per cent and the Coalition down 1.5 to 35.5 per cent and the Greens steady on 10.
Elsewhere:
• After 22 years in parliament, Bob McMullan has announced he will not contest the next election, opening a vacancy in his safe Labor ACT seat of Fraser. Susanna Dunkerley of AAP reports that McMullan denies having been pushed, “despite recently declaring his intention to stick around for another term”. Furthermore, James Massola of the Canberra Times reports Annette Ellis is under pressure to make way for new blood in the other ACT seat, Canberra. Constitutional lawyer George Williams, who recently moved to Canberra and was reportedly Kevin Rudd’s choice to contest the safe Sydney seat of Blaxland in 2007, was said to be planning a preselection challenge against McMullan last October. However, a number of reports have identified the front-runner as Nick Martin, the party’s assistant national secretary. Other possible starters named by Massola are Andrew Leigh, Australian National University economist and prolific blogger, and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal heritage who ran in Ginninderra at the 2008 ACT election. Both are factionally unaligned, which might be an asset as they seek to succeed the similarly placed McMullan. Another Canberra Times report mentions Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT MP Andrew Barr and former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley. Those whose names were floated but have since ruled themselves out are ACT Chief Minister Jon Stanhope, Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher and prime ministerial chief-of-staff Alister Jordan. Jonathan Pearlman of the Sydney Morning Herald reports an ALP national executive meeting on February 12 is likely to decide whether the candidate will be chosen locally or imposed externally.
• Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports Malcolm Turnbull is “being urged by supporters and business leaders to make a run for New South Wales premier in 2011”, firstly by replacing Peter Debnam in Vaucluse, which is located entirely within his existing electorate of Wentworth. Debnam has now confirmed what he describes as an “open secret”, that he won’t be contesting the seat at the next election. It had already been established that University of NSW deputy chancellor Gabrielle Upton would contest preselection, and numerous others have been named in connection with the seat: former John Howard chief-of-staff Arthur Sinodinos, restaurateur Peter Doyle, barrister Mark Speakman, UNSW Deputy Chancellor Gabrielle Upton and barrister Arthur Moses. Also mentioned was Paul Fletcher, before he landed his federal gig in Bradfield. There have also been suggestions, reiterated in Samantha Maiden’s report, that Joe Hockey might assume the seat with Turnbull’s support as an entree to the premiership.
• A couple of Labor national executive preselection determinations that had sliipped through the net. Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor and member of the Right faction, will contest Greenway, which the redistribution has transformed from 4.5 per cent Liberal to 5.8 per cent Labor (the sitting Liberal member, Louise Markus, will contest Macquarie). Holding Redlich lawyer Laura Smyth, whom Andrew Landeryou at VexNews links to the “Andrew Giles/Alan Griffin sub-faction of the Socialist Left”, will run in the outer eastern Melbourne seat of La Trobe, where Liberal member Jason Wood survived a 5.3 per cent swing in 2007 to hold on by 0.5 per cent. Human Services and Financial Services Minister Chris Bowen will contest McMahon, which is effectively a reincarnation of his existing abolished seat of Prospect.
• Chas Hopkins, 60-year-old former Perth Lord Mayor, has nominated for Labor preselection in the marginal Perth seat of Cowan, where the party has admitted it is struggling to find a replacement for Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly who doesn’t share his connections with Brian Burke. Other confirmed starters are party state executive member Alex Banzic and political staffer Sam Roe.
Iindulgence if I may
(from previous thread)
[Polly
few things
Howie’s acolytes are embedded
FOA (friends of abc) are the silent mover here
I was the most vocal anti abc’er her a while back=not anymore as I fully recognise change is an incremental process
The vibe is good,as one old timer said, the shackles and fear are slowly dissapating]
further indugence – never encountered that ‘comments closed’ message before – penalty for those of us who edit our posts before we hit the post button.
[Ant journo, no matter what their stripes,would have given their left nut/ovary for that story
* remember they didnt have all the facts at the time ]
Maybe they would, but you should have heard the chortle. I would have been revolted no matter who was the subject. If she had chortled over a gotcha against the opposition, I reckon I could have raised a ‘fair suck of the sav’; bit of sympathy for them. It really really was an abrogation of journalistic responsibility. It still sticks in the craw for me.
Ditto on the cutoff.
Its understandable that Labor Party people and supporters are a bit non-plussed about how to proceed at present with Global Warming strategy. Unless the the UN gets its act together there is a problem internationally. And here it looks like an agreement between Labor and Greens after the next election is the best chance.
Calling on the Libs to support Labor policy might be good politics but it is disastrous to move towards their position. Concentrate on putting the heat on the Libs.
Ron and others trying to pretend that the Greens are the problem and getting all excited about it is rather farcical and counter productive to trying to get a reasonable compromise down the track. If you think that the best chance still is for a Labor Lib deal then say so but I don’t see it getting much support at present.
#959 (previous thread)
[ Harry “Snapper” Organs
Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
Peter Young, William has my permission to give you my email address. I may be able to offer some specific suggestions for your 80 year old woman. You can indulge the political fight to your hearts content otherwise.]
Thanks. I have emailed William. 🙂
The new channel could eventually take on all news and current affairs production and the remainder of the ABC have to use that. And they could carefully staff the new channel to be free of Howard boys and girls. The Liberal party supporters then would have to make do with bastardising play school with a right wing political slant.
[Its understandable that Labor Party people and supporters are a bit non-plussed about how to proceed at present with Global Warming strategy.]
It is going to seem pointless if there is no real prospect of China or the USA of doing anything that is anything. And at the moment it doesn’t look like they will be doing much at all.
[trying to pretend that the Greens are the problem]
we would have an ETS now if it wasn’t for them sitting and voting with crazy barnaby.
[If you think that the best chance still is for a Labor Lib deal then say so but I don’t see it getting much support at present.]
I have said so, the Macca/Penny deal would have been a good start at least!
Obama has to make his mind whether he is working POTUS or a celebrity POTUS. The perception at the moment is that he is a celebrity POTUS.
It is actually good the Greens coming out and keeping the issue before the public, regardless of what they are after. It leaves less space for and some counter acting force to the CC deniers in the news.
[Obama has to make his mind whether he is working POTUS or a celebrity POTUS. The perception at the moment is that he is a celebrity POTUS.]
Hilary would have done both and sorted out healthcare.
and that would have been in her first week
😉
[Truthy
Here’s a question for you. I would really like your honest opinion about it.]
What sort of emotive nonsense is this.
If she needs $1500 for a Visa, why not help stump up the cash? $1500 is chump change for me, i’m surprised you aren’t as generous with your money as you are with your sympathy.
Wakefield
#3
You know advantags of an ETS , a cap and trade so buinss has certainty to invest in
R E and so Govt & all concerned with cc mitigaton know th redusing permits and cap act to both make R E invesy more atrract AND guarantee lowring co2
furthar ETSA allows international ‘credit’ for poor ountrys re reveggying & re-aforestatons etc
how much is lowered depnds on th target , but principal of an ETS is generaly suported world wide , apart from Abbott (but howard & Costell did)
‘time’ is short to get ANY ETS thru , pols ar turning away from suporting it I do not think an ETS will pass in 2 years as suport now is down about 10% to only 46%
greens refusd an ETS twise in nov , sayin 5% was too low
so Greens ar hypocriticaly 3 mths later saying oh a nil target is ok YThen why did not rthey tink that in Nov and pass a HIGHER target than nil (5%) Plus as i say we do not hav 2 years politcly or CC wise to get an ETS up A carbon tax will do littleas there is no cap to mitigat and control emmissions and there is no ‘trade internatonal
I can not Greens sayin for 2 years up to yestersay 25% cut had to be mandatd , and on that basiss reject 2 times a ETS that is hard politcaly to get thru anyways , and next day abandonin 25% and say it ok to hav nil cutts
#11
[ If she needs $1500 for a Visa, why not help stump up the cash? $1500 is chump change for me, i’m surprised you aren’t as generous with your money as you are with your sympathy.]
I don’t have $1,500. But I intend to go around and see if I can raise it. Once we have done that, what do you think the government’s attitude should be to fast-tracking her into citizenship so she access some benefits like housing and Medicare.
from my 88 yr old mum
[..thank you for youfr vote of confidence…I need to know that I m
not losing it….It is not easy being old…and also hard to admit that you
don}\]
Anyone here has a go at grammar or spelling
Be warned!!!!!
Ron – no-one is saying its easy but misrepresenting the Greens is hardly helpful. Basically the Greens have supported the original Garnaut position and now an interim Garnaut proposal for a short term $20 a tonne Carbon tax as interim until a more comprehensive proposaol can be agreed. Thats hardly fairies at the bottom of the garden politics. They just don’t want a scheme that is well below what seems to be required.
[I don’t have $1,500.] Christ I make that in a week… or a day if the sharemarket is going well.
[But I intend to go around and see if I can raise it. Once we have done that, what do you think the government’s attitude should be to fast-tracking her into citizenship so she access some benefits like housing and Medicare.]
Well there seems to be positives and negatives.
Positives are as follows:
1. She hasn’t been sponging off welfare for 20 years.
2. She has a job, a low paid one, but a job none the less
3. I assume she hasn’t committed any major crimes as she hasn’t been kicked out of the country
4. She’s been here a long time so has probably integrated by now.
On the flip side:
1. She broke the law and is an illegal immigrant to this country
2. She was untruthful when she filled in her visa application claiming she was just a tourist
3. Getting older she may be a drain on medicare
4. It’s unclear what economic benefit if any she will bring to this country.
Herr Doctor Mengele could have used your analytical approch HTT YARR??
#16 – Truthy
[ On the flip side:
1. She broke the law and is an illegal immigrant to this country
2. She was untruthful when she filled in her visa application claiming she was just a tourist
3. Getting older she may be a drain on medicare
4. It’s unclear what economic benefit if any she will bring to this country. ]
1. Agreed.
2. She was not untruthful in her visa application. She came on a 2 year working visa. She worked in a field that was desperately needed in Australia at the time. She obviously did not comply with the visa conditions when she failed to leave the country at the end of 2 years.
3. Her medicare contributions can reasonably be expected to be much less than claims.
4. On a purely economic cost/benefit analysis it is reasonable to expect that the costs will be greater than the benefits.
So what is your opinion ? Throw her out or let her stay?
But Wakefield , up to yesterday it was all urgent , acton had to be taken imediate so i was told , and 25% cut was holy grails and was never to be lowered I heard Bob Brown Chris Milne say that repeatly in a 1 week when Senate stalled ETS vote (that Turnbull libs were going to pass)
Change over nite , and to a lower positon that Rudds 5% (nil) when could hav passed th 5% ETS in ist plase i do not undrstand as targets can change after , and Greens in nov as part of agreing to a then ETS could hav negotiatd for higher targets for 2014/2015 , seeing Greens 2 year polisy now goes to 2012
Two Hardest parts of & most complex parts of whole thing is one politcaly passin a ETS itself as vested intersts ar everyone , as all pay more (some get compo back) Second hardest part is beddin it in (2 yrs) thru industry a big process before alot of & big R E investement s take shape So politcaly and comersialy is why an ETS needed quick , irespetiv of target (it canbe later easier changed when there ar less vestd intersts
Hav we got 2 years on CC grounds to wait til 2012, i dont think so Hav we got 2 years for th ‘right’ to furthar undermine suport for an ETS (coming into a013 electon year , I dont think so Both windows ar now , 2010 , feel need acton desisons not defer ones
Huffington Post…
Given:
* Massachusetts’ bipartisan health care reform a few years ago is the model for what Obama and the Democrats have been on the verge of passing in Washington.
* Scott Brown supported the bipartisan Massachusetts health care reform (which has given the state near-universal coverage)
* Scott Brown opposes the Democrats’ health care reform in Washington, and told voters he’d be the 41st vote to stop it.
* Massachusetts voters, who overwhelmingly support the Massachusetts health care reform, have sent Scott Brown to Washington to stop Washington from enacting at a national level the popular plan Massachusetts enacted a few years ago.
Which of the following explains Scott Brown’s victory over Martha Coakley? (Maybe I’m missing something, but I think these are the only three options):
1) Scott Brown is a disingenuous idiot.
2) Massachusetts voters are confused idiots.
3) I’m an idiot, for expecting logic or reason to play any role in American political life at all.
[So what is your opinion ? Throw her out or let her stay?]
Let her stay on a TPV.
#21 – Truthy
What is a TPV?
Temporary Protection Visa, look it up.
Aussieguru01
Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 11:55 pm
Aussieguru01 , who was th writer at Huff post who said that ?
#23 – Truthy
[ On 9 August 2008 temporary Protection visas (TPVs) were abolished. ]
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/68tpv_further.htm
Any other suggestions?
Aussieguru01
#20
found it matt millar
first of all his view is not shared by Mrs Huff editor who i saw interviewd , she blamed Obama and Dems congrss , not candidate
second mr millar HIMSELF desides th 4 pre existin criteria and then lists 3 posible answer based on his false 4 criteria
his first point is false
and last sentense of 4th point is false ( seeing it repeats th false point 1/)
he’s in deniel , voter made a desison on Washington poor polisys incl National healthcare that would hav afectd them negativly Mrs huff said similar to me but more generaly
[http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/68tpv_further.htm
Any other suggestions?]
Yes and a bloody shame it was to scrap them.
Why does she need a Visa anyways, didn’t you say she was here illegally for 20 years?
#27 Truthy
When she went to the Immigration Dept she was told the first step to obtaining Aussie citizenship was she must have a valid visa at present. She doesn’t. She needs a “back-dated” visa to overcome her illegal status for the last 18 years – as I understand it.
[Which of the following explains Scott Brown’s victory over Martha Coakley?]
4) All Americans are idiots
So she’s trying to get the dole?
For your listening pleasure (not my rip) Here is the theme song for our Green Bludgers in light of today’s announcement 🙂
http://rapidshare.com/files/179299589/Donnie_Sutherland_-_Fairyland.mp3
Colurtesy of:
http://tommixmusic.blogspot.com/2009/01/download-no96-donnie-sutherland.html
oooooh those sneaky Libs in Stirling.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/01/21/2798429.htm
#30 Truthy
[ So she’s trying to get the dole? ]
No she is not trying to get the dole. She subsists on the money she gets from sewing. How long she can continue doing this must be something that concerns her. Her present housing is unsuitable. She has difficulty in meeting medical expenses.
What should we do with her?
#31 – Frank
That first link gets an error message:
“The file could not be found. Please check the download link. “
[#31 – Frank
That first link gets an error message:
“The file could not be found. Please check the download link. “]
Well, the song is in the second link
“4) All Americans are idiots”
thats what Republicons were saying 12 mths ago when voters voted Obama
thats what Democrats were saying 9 years ago when voters voted Bush
Ratsars @ # 741 on newspoll-54-46-5
[So alas, you can see that I am cursed with forever fixing up these silly mistakes for in my own way I am just as bad as Ron when it come to the written word.]
Try: cccp
Using Firefox: right-click on the Permalink for the comment you wish to refer to.
Select Copy Link Location and paste it into the Comment box.
Quote the text normally and then cick the Preview Comment button.
If the comment you are referring to is on the same page that you are writing your comment then the Author and Post number should be set for you. If not then it will include the Thread Name, and put in some obvious place holders for you to update manually.
And Tony had an issue with Kev at the Cricket.
[ mfullilove
John Howard to run world cricket? Peter Roebuck doesn’t like it (even leaving aside Howard’s bowling form): http://tiny.cc/4Z7F2 42 minutes ago from web Retweeted by latikambourke ]
Frank Calabrese @ # 38
mfullilove
John Howard to run world cricket? Peter Roebuck doesn’t like it (even leaving aside Howard’s bowling form): http://tiny.cc/4Z7F2 42 minutes ago from web Retweeted by latikambourke
Test post of new script 🙂
Does Malcom Turnbull know whether he is Malcolm or Marlene?
Does he know whether he wants to be:
a. The member for Wentworth
b. The member for Vaucluse
c. A MP
d. A member of the Liberal Party
e. The leader of a new party
Talk about one hell of a confused guy. Don’t expect any decisive action from Turnbull anytime real soon. It seems he can’t make up his mind.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-silent-on-nsw-tilt-at-debnams-seat-20100121-moaf.html
Turnbull is a leftwing, silver spoon fed, socialist elitist who should be kicked out of the Liberal Party forthwith.
I have spent the last two weeks stuck in a car on a long road trip with a LaRouchist! Honestly, a frickin’ LaRouchist! I had to put up with a lot of balony such as that 9/11 was an inside job by Bush and that AGW is a massive conspiracy by the “Bildunurg Group” (something like that) to create a New World Order. I lost my tempor every few days. The only thing i learned as a result of this experience was that you cannot reason with Jerks.
The Heysen Molotov @ # 42
[I have spent the last two weeks stuck in a car on a long road trip with a LaRouchist! Honestly, a frickin’ LaRouchist! I had to put up with a lot of balony such as that 9/11 was an inside job by Bush and that AGW is a massive conspiracy by the “Bildunurg Group” (something like that) to create a New World Order. I lost my tempor every few days. The only thing i learned as a result of this experience was that you cannot reason with Jerks.]
So I’m assuming you will respect us hacks a bit more now ? 🙂
Ron
The Greens new policy covers only the next 2 years. I do not believe it replaced the old policy of 25%-40% by 2020. Rather, it is in addition to it.
The interim plan, if implimented will cause a modest drop in emmittions, buying us time to find a political solution for a Tax/ETS plan for the decade ahead. As Diogenes points out, under the ALP plan emmittions will rise over this period.
I thought you blocked me Frank?
Heysen – #42
The interesting thing is I went to the Prince William BBQ with the Queen.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/peter124u/4289647259/
Just before Willie was due to arrive about 3 or 4 people turned up with anti-monarchy/pro-republican placards and a bundle of newspapers which they distributed to the crowd. The Queen said “I’ll have one of those, I’m a royalist” and snatched a paper out of the hands of one of them. I glanced at it and saw it was a La Rouche publication.
Sad bunch of people. They have no idea how to create street theatre.
I have sent the following email to the ABC news Breakfast Show.
It would interesting if there is any reporting of this poll by them .
If anyone notices anything maybe you could let us know?
I noticed the eagerness you displayed earlier this week when reporting on an opinion poll which was reported as a set back for Rudd and a boost for Abbott.
I was wondering if you were going to report this one?
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4463/
To quote Mr Morgan
“The ALP primary vote rose 2% to 47.5%, and remains clearly ahead of the L-NP (35.5%, down 1.5%), while looking at the minor parties shows support for the Greens rising (10%, unchanged), Family First (2%, unchanged) and Independents/ Others (5.0%, down 0.5%).”
And
“The Rudd Government (58.5%, up 1.5%) has strengthened its Two-Party preferred lead over the Tony Abbott-led Opposition (41.5%, down 1.5%) as Australians return to work after their Summer holidays.”
When the NZ government put forward a pathetic ETS bill last year, the NZ Greens quite rightly voted ‘Nay’. My guess is that the Greens in other countries, when faced with other tokenistic bills have fought to defeat them. There are multiple reasons why:
*An ETS in and of itself does not equal effective government action – only an ETS/Carbon Tax with teeth does that.
* it’s supposed to be a grassroots party and the grassroots won’t stand a sellout. I for one would quit.
*A compromise would have to be made for the Greens to vote with the government. It would look very weak to vote for a bill opposed by the parliamentary Greens and the base without achieving some improvements. The ALP prefered to get into bed with the COALition.
* The governments policy is very, very different to the Greens policy: they are not in the same league. So ‘no dah’ the Australian Greens opposed it, as did the NZ Greens and probably countless other Green and green-like parties in similar situations around the world.
Vera @ # 848 previous thread
Have you got a friend who plays cricket? You could borrow his box to protect your valuables in
Thank you for you concern and advice but so far the dam kitten has not been audacious enough to attack that area.
If it does I might feed it to the dog – hopefully there will be no evidence afterwards
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Ron
In responce to the Greens new policy I think you’re “the Greens are sellouts” approach is incorrect. The correct answer is “this policy shows that those loony Greens want to do too much too soon! What will this do to the value of my stock portfolio?”
So by all means keep up the critisism, but personally i recomend the exact opposite complaint (or switch back and forth, whatever floats your boat).