The Australian has published its quarterly accumulation of Newspoll results, allowing large-sample breakdowns over state, sex, age and capitals versus non-capitals. Samantha Maiden of The Australian judges the salient feature of the results to be a bounce to Labor in “non-capitals” from 49-51 to 53-47, but a look at the results over time suggests the earlier result was an aberration. In the capitals the score has been in a narrow band from 58-42 to 60-40; currently it is at the high end. A shift to Labor in Queensland from 51-49 to 56-44 looks a little counter-intuitive, and again the previous result looks to have been out of character. Interesting to note the Greens are up three points to 17 per cent among the 18-34 group, but basically stable elsewhere. Labor has dropped four points among 18-34s since the election, while edging up slightly in older cohorts. All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.
Two ageing items I forgot to include in the previous post:
• Way back on December 13, The Sunday Age reported unions appeared to have scuttled a plan to cap corporate donations and double public funding of parties, which had been the subject of negotiations between Labor and Liberal. The plan was to bring Australia roughly in line with Canada and New Zealand by capping donations at $1500 and increasing public funding from $2.20 to $4.25. Significantly, Mark Skulley of the Financial Review reported in October that Labor had conceded to the Liberals a ban on corporations, third parties and associated entities that would extend to union affiliation fee, which had union leaders fearing a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party. The plan also included an amendment to restrict political advertising by third parties.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported a few weeks ago on a deal in which Hajnal Ban, who was the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007, would sit as a Liberal if successful in her bid for the new seat of Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. All Coalition candidates in Queensland will run under the LNP banner, so a deal has had to be arranged as to which party rooms they will join.
Note also that Ben Raue at The Tally Room has completed 41 out of 150 profiles for his federal election guide, the last addition before a new year hiatus being North Sydney.
Slightly off-thread, but I have to say I’m deeply disturbed by the recent murder of an Indian student, and I’m with the Indian government here – we simply aren’t doing enough about this. There are some tjings we need to face up to:
1.There’s clearly deep seated racism behind this violence, and its just childish of us to get defensive about that
2. Victoria is clearly worse than other states, and I suspect thats because you never see the police anywhere. I know I’m from QLD, (and therefore used to an equally inappropriate Franco’s Spain type model) – but Victoria must have the the most invisible police force in the western world. They’re just never on the beat. There must be a middle way.
3. WTF are is VICPol doing about the rash of people with knives? Its just unacceptable.
4. There needs to be some grassroots school/ community interventions about this, beyond policing responses.
5. Australia need to wake up about this. Its ugly as sin, it IS about racism in our community, and our inaction IS making us look like 19th century throwbacks. We can’t just pretend it isn’t happening.
Interesting internet poll in SA/Murdoch Sunday Mail yesterday. 2400 involved and most of the answers look about what you would expect. But on “How would you like to see SA’s population change”
Decrease 20.7%
Increase through natural growth 60.1%
Increase through immigration 13.3%
Stay the same 5.9%
Considering that 2/3 of current population increase comes from immigration its not a big vote for the Big Australia. Course the questions don’t allow an option of natural growth plus immigration and don’t deal with scale of immigration so its a bit limited.
Son sent me this
Blast from the past! (From up Troothy’s way) Certainly not ours (we had several). They were maltreated in many ways, our kindest on a dartboard!
Get your “Joh for P.M.” sticker on Ebay: http://cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&Item=150401994137&Category=208
PS: The “Joh for Canbrra” campaign was my first encounter with push polling; but news of it was leaked (reputedly by antiJoh Nats & disgruntled Libs) and telephone lines went into meltdown. It was a classic. Many of the questions involved identifying a problem, then preferencing the ability of specified political identities’ ability to solve nominated problems – the answers included Howard, Elliott, Hawke, ?Peacock (I’ve forgotten some) or sigh, use adoring voice Joh.
Every ALP member, unionist, disgruntled Lib (almost all of them), can’t-stand-Joh person I knew who was polled answered “Joh”. Although I can’t find a reference, one poll’s (probably the “Push poll”), results published in either the CM or Oz, returned enough of a pro-Joh vote to turn the Campaign into “Joh for PM” In one blow, the campaign effectively scuttled Howard & the Libs (Elect, 11 July 87) and led to Joh’s downfall (Dec 87)
Branyard is back!!!
Ranting away on Slynews as per usual and making a fool of himself by making a public announcement on the engagement of the Slynews reporter, Ashleigh 20something. Obviously, she didnt want that to happen and looked decidedly unimpressed with Barnyard’s antics.
lefty e
I think we should wait until the perp(s) is/are caught before deciding if the murder was race-related.
I hope like hell it wasn’t.
Taking the life of anyone is a terrible act. Speculation over the motivation for the murder of the young Indian in Melbourne at this stage is just that speculation.
It may or may not be driven by racism. There is no clear evidence available way at this stage. No one other than the person who committed the murder knows what the motivation was. Perhaps even that person doesn’t know. How would we assess the situation if it proves (hypothetically) that the person who comitted the murder was mentally incompetent to plead but spouted racist ideology?
Proposing public policy change on a newspaper report and a feeling of angst and guilt with no substantial evidence to underpin the diagnosis doesn’t seem to be a helpful way to respond.
Indian newspapers can call for a Government response all they like – its not clear what specific actions would give them comfort and whether any proposed actions would make anyone in particular in Australia any safer.
lefty e
[Indian student as victims of crime has not been significantly demonstrated in the recorded statistics, and evidence of significant unreported crimes is weak. Indian students as victims of racism has not been shown to be justified, though racism and links to violent crimes cannot be regarded as beyond possibility ,we are not
suggesting that each attack shares identical motivations.]
from http://proceedings.com.au/isana2009/PDF/paper_Spolc.pdf
The paper linked to looks at the statistics available and concludes that the perception that there are increased attacks on Indian students is partly due to a rise in the number of Indian students and partly a media beat up (that is, attacks on Indian students – and Australian students – were happening at the same rate previously as they are now but were not being reported in the media).
Oh Great, John Bowler and WA LIberal MP Michael Suutherland want to ban Electioneering at Polling Booths.
[Two State Members of Parliament have launched a campaign to ban signs and supporters handing out how to vote cards at polling booths.
The Independent member for Kalgoorlie, John Bowler, and the Liberal member for Mount Lawley, Michael Sutherland, are lobbying the Government to outlaw electioneering on voting days.
The pair have written to the Minister for Electoral Affairs, Norman Moore, requesting the changes.
Mr Bowler say the onslaught of signs and supporters with how-to-vote cards is unnecessary and intimidating.
“That’s why so many people don’t go and vote and why so many people, an increasing number of people, go and vote early before election day,” he said]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/04/2784801.htm?site=news
I agree with that proposition of no electioneering at poling booths. There is too much hassling goes on at poling booths.
[I agree with that proposition of no electioneering at poling booths. There is too much hassling goes on at poling booths.]
Rubbish – no one is compelled to accept a How To Vote Card, but at least be polite to the booth worker when doing so – and in my experience, it is the Liberal and other booth workers who are bombastic.
[I think we should wait until the perp(s) is/are caught before deciding if the murder was race-related.]
Diog, we are not the centre of the Universe. India has already decided it was raced related murder, and more importantly it was Indian-related murder.
I can see how getting rid of election day activities would be very attractive to every one except Labor.
[I can see how getting rid of election day activities would be very attractive to every one except Labor.]
Or it’s code for we cannot compete with the amount of Booth Workers the ALP can Comandeer 🙂
Finns
[India has already decided it was raced related murder, and more importantly it was Indian-related murder.]
By this do you mean ‘it’s too late, the perception is out there’ or are you suggesting that the Indian government is better able to assess the motivations for the killing than the Victorian police?
And yet more and more and come.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/04/2785093.htm?section=justin
109 Boatpeople in 4 Days.
365 Days in a Year / 4 Days = 9946 Boatpeople predicted total for 2010.
Gee, wonder what the punters will think about that.
[Troothy won’t like this!
Funny how he/she hasn’t mentioned this article? ]
Indonesia can’t tell Australia what to do in OUR waters dumbass.
Of course they don’t want these boatpeople, nobody does except for the soft touch left here in Australia.
If we tow the boatpeople back out into International waters, there is stuff all Indonesia can do about it
TTH @165 said,
[And yet more and more and come……Gee, wonder what the punters will think about that]
They’ve already told us, but you’re not listening.
I posted this yesterday,
[The Newspoll quarterly aggregates, published in the Oz yesterday, yield some interesting findings.
Conducted from October to December, combined and weighted with the quarterly results from Nielsen, and single polls in QLD from Galaxy and WA from Westpoll, gives us the following notional gain of 26 seats to the ALP:
NSW 5 seats, VIC 5 seats, QLD 8 seats, SA 3 seats, WA 5 seats
This is an increase from April- June (21 seats) and July-September (23 seats)
The swings are as follows:
NSW/ACT 1% swing, VIC 5.1% swing, QLD 5% swing, SA 5% swing, WA 6.9% swing.
Cities 4.2% swing, non-cities/regional 3.8% swing.
The two issues that dominated this last quarter were asylum seekers and the ETS, and the result was an increase in seats notionally won by the ALP.
Those who feel both these issues will work well for the Coalition have no evidence to support that view.]
TTH @ 165
[Gee, wonder what the punters will think about that.]
Probably not as much as yourself ?
[They’ve already told us, but you’re not listening.]
Yep poll after poll after poll says a majority want tougher laws and to turn back the boats.
[By this do you mean ‘it’s too late, the perception is out there’ or are you suggesting that the Indian government is better able to assess the motivations for the killing than the Victorian police?]
Zoom, what do you think? Samples from Google News:
[India asks Australia for firm action over student’s death
Hindustan Times – ?40 minutes ago?
Australia condemned on Monday the killing of an Indian student in Melbourne, as India called for an end to the spate of attacks against Indian students which has damaged Australia’s multi-million dollar foreign student sector. …
‘Anyone can be attacked, no racist angle’
Times Now.tv – ?1 hour ago?
Forty-eight hours after 21-year-old Nitin Garg was stabbed to death in Melbourne, the Australian police on Monday (January 4) ruled out racist motive behind the attack. The Melbourne Deputy Police Commissioner said that there has never been a racist …
Indian youth stabbed to death in Australia
Indian Express – ?4 hours ago?
An Indian youth was on Sunday stabbed to death by unidentified assailants here, becoming the first victim to succumb to injuries amid a string of racial attacks on the community members in Australia. Nitin Garg, 21, who migrated from Jagraon in Punjab …
Krishna said, “This heinous crime on humanity, this is an uncivilised brutal attack on innocent Indians. It certainly will have some bearing on the bilateral ties between our two countries.”
more by SM Krishna – 1 hour ago – Times Now.tv (31 occurrences)
India warns Australia over student stabbing
AFP – ?4 minutes ago?
NEW DELHI — India condemned the fatal stabbing of an Indian student in Australia and warned that the attack, which was the latest in a series of assaults, could put bilateral ties under strain. The 21-year-old student was killed over the weekend in the …
Online fury over stabbing death of Indian man
Sydney Morning Herald – Thomas Hunter, Paul Millar – ?1 hour ago?
After the stabbing of Nitin Garg in a West Footscray park, police say recent attacks against Indians are not race-related. Fury over the stabbing death of a 21-year-old Indian man in West Footscray on his way to work at a fast-food outlet on Saturday … .]
[I agree with that proposition of no electioneering at poling booths. There is too much hassling goes on at poling booths.]
I agree. If there is no advertising on election day, I can’t see why these people can shove their crap in my face.
from TTH:
“Yep poll after poll after poll says a majority want tougher laws and to turn back the boats.”
Funny, i thought there had actually been poll after poll that says a majority want to vote for the party that is handling things at the moment, and not the dog whistling lowlife scumsucking bottom feeders who are claiming that they will tow the boats back into international waters??
[I agree. If there is no advertising on election day, I can’t see why these people can shove their crap in my face.]
Actually there is PRINT Advertising on election Day – but of course this is another tactic by the Libs to deny the vote to anyone but those people who fall for their crap.
Hi Bludgers, I’m back.
I hope you all ate too much, drank less than I did.
I see things are very much the same, excepting the Pope telling Tony to accept boaties.
The only revolting news from my Canberra relatives (who have mercifully left) is that Chrissy Pyne runs around Lake B-G in a T-shirt with his name on it. Maybe he does not know who he is.
Belated Happy New Year. 🙂
So th sum total of th Unions discussion being put is :
j/v: Unions sell out there members intersts in favor of protectin Labors intersts
Tom: Unions (there members intersts) hav too much influense over Labors intersts policy
j/v’s arguement is made without any evidense provided , just “his” opinion , doesn’t cut
His argument is false Unions ar not some monlithic one porganisaton but diferent organizatons representin diferent workers intersts with individuals running them
Histary shows numerous diferent Unions hav conflicted with Labor Govts to advanse there members intersts , which is what there job is
Examples of such Unions taking on Labor ar th teachers union , tram drivers union , cfmu , etu , police associaton , th twu , nurses federation , train union , & awu
whereas j/v supplies no substantaton at all
further , often there is hostility or lack of co operaton , and apart from th workchoises electon Unions in total hav NOT in past , in COMPARISON to 2007 , clearly hav not put there full resourses into electing labor govts anyway , but generaly suport Labor seeing there general policy objectives ar for th same constituacy , ie working families
– such conflict as listed above IS th “price” paid for th “links” between Labor and Unions , there will be and ar conflicts between Labor policy & an indiv Unions persepton of its members needs , but th overall benefits for both exceed th “price”
But Unions ar no perfect , some good , some average , a minority bad , some very competetant , some less competa Making generalities is like saying all emploers ar bad
Tom’s argument:
was reverse of j/v Unions had too much influense over Labor policy
Tom however seemed more jealous of th financial suporty Labor gets from Unions via affiliaton fees vs his Greens Party , so his post was reely Green’s self centred
Why do Unions hav somer influnse over Labor policy , yes , and th reasons is obvous 2 folds
First Labors core policys ar for working familys unionised and non unionised ones & th disadvantaged That is a fact Whereas each individual Union is representing unionized working familys , so of couse there is linkage and general common policy ideas of Labor to Unions Second Labor was created from a Union base so its execitive was all Union based As th Labor party has widened representaton from other groups in community th Union representaton is down at conferense to about 50% , so obvous it will and should influense Labor overall policy
Its whats Labor is mainly about (apart from th disadvantaged & ‘average’ retirees) ie about working familys excepyt that in modern era working familys extend into a wider “Grouping” as ‘traes’ hav dropped BUT what alot of Unions usualy push for is to th benefit of ALL working familys anyway ! eg maternity leave , holiday pay , supa , sickness benefits , wrongful dismissal etc
Does Kevin rudd get bullied by Unions ? no , he took on one of most powerful WA union guys & at risk in an electon campaign , and demanded him out Earlier a powerful vic electrical guy got extreme and he demanded him out of labor also
In fact Kevin rudd has (corectly) publicly stated that Unions do hav a legit role in Labor influense based both on th histary & th peoples they represent being akin to Labor , BUT that Labor will decide Labor policy , that conferense decisons “will be taken account of” , and Labor will goivern in th Natonal interst & in ordinary peoples interst So th argument Unions hav too much influense is also in error , making both anti Unions views wRONg I agree with Kevin rudd’s above view , hense this post
The BBC is under threat from ….?
If you guessed from Murdoch & Tories, esp leader leader David Cameron:
The BBC fires back: report argues that corporation generates £7.6bn for Britain
Shut down the independent voices and those who threaten Rupert’s desire to bury all on-line news behind paywalls!
I’m looking forward to the Brits’ mass “Save the BBC” campaign.
And to you too, RU! #174.
Did anyone give you waterwings for Christmas?
I guess a certain Tully Resident will be rubbing his hands with glee:
[australian
Full sign prepared for Christmas Island: KEVIN Rudd could be forced to bring asylum-seekers to the mainland for pro… http://bit.ly/5YseWX 19 minutes ago from twitterfeed ]
[Zoom, what do you think?]
I’m still none the wiser. Clearly “the perception is out there”, but it remains unclear if you are suggesting the Indian government is better able to assess the motivations for the killing than the Victorian police.
Bilbo, the perception has been set in stone especially with the Indian public and media.
[if you are suggesting the Indian government is better able to assess the motivations for the killing than the Victorian police.]
Not too sure where this red herring comes from, although i do like to chomp on the red herrings. 😉
[Did anyone give you waterwings for Christmas?]
Love swimming in liquid sunshine. 😉
Finns @ 180
the wording of your original post is ambiguous, as I tried to point out.
I wasn’t throwing you a red herring (I know what you dolphins do with them), but trying to clarify what you meant.
I’m not sure what we can do about tackling a perception which, from the stats, seems to be just that.
There is no evidence that Indian students are more prone to attack than anybody else in Victoria.
If this is so, then there’s not much that can be done about it.
#158
I have been told state politics is not to be discussed in this thread Frank. Go to a WA thread .
By whom, PY?
[By whom, PY?]
He’s referring to his obsession with the NSW Govt where others were suggesting he post it to the recent NSW RThread – my post was aimed at a broader than WA Audience due to possible Federal Implications if suggested by the Federal Libs.
Finns is right about the perception and that’s the main thing in the end.
We shouldn’t be surprised as we’ve seen the exact same thing from the other side when the local media piles on to a simplistic story about Aussies overseas, or the Yanks complaining about the Italians jailing their innocent girl etc etc.
Has Scott (I’m tough) Morrison been sold a brown sandwich by Tony? What can he do?Whine?
The only people worried about “boats” already vote Liberal. Can he continue to pop up and spout the same crud? Poor sod, reminds me of Joe Hockey trying to sell a turd.
To clarify, federal matters should not be discussed on state threads, because there is always a more appropriate thread nearby. Such is not the case for state threads – it would be impractical for Frank to go to a WA thread, because there hasn’t been one for several months (and in any case he’s quite right to suggest this is not a purely WA matter). However, if there is a state thread currently in progress, it would obviously be best if people wishing to discuss the politics of that state did so there.
[Finns is right about the perception and that’s the main thing in the end.
We shouldn’t be surprised as we’ve seen the exact same thing from the other side when the local media piles on to a simplistic story about Aussies overseas, or the Yanks complaining about the Italians jailing their innocent girl etc etc.]
Two Words – Schappelle Corby 🙂
And this person:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/6640453/mcjannett-claims-bali-drugs-set-up/
William
Not by you. And indeed by no-one with any authority or cred. I ignore them anyway.
However, I as just reminding Frank of what has been said.
[Funny, i thought there had actually been poll after poll that says a majority want to vote for the party that is handling things at the moment, and not the dog whistling lowlife scumsucking bottom feeders who are claiming that they will tow the boats back into international waters??]
Newspoll 13-15 January 2006 Coalition 45% Labor 37%
Newspoll 27-29 January 2006 Coalition 44% Labor 36%
Newspoll 10-12 February 2006 Coalition 41% Labor 39%
Newspoll 24-26 February 2006 Coalition 41% Labor 39%
Newspoll 10-12 March 2006 Coalition 45% Labor 35%
NOW ABOUT INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S CHANGES TO AUSTRALIA’S INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS SYSTEM, WHICH IT HAS CALLED WORKCHOICES, WERE RECENTLY INTRODUCED. OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THESE CHANGES TO INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS WILL BE GOOD, OR BAD FOR THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY? IF GOOD DO YOU THINK THEY WILL BE VERY GOOD OR SOMEWHAT GOOD? IF BAD DO YOU THINK THEY WILL BE VERY BAD OR SOMEWHAT BAD?
TOTAL GOOD
April 2006 33%
TOTAL BAD
April 2006 48%
You Labor hacks shouldn’t get too cocky, remember Labor works for us, not the other way round.
Hey Truthy its 2010 if you missed it. 😛
[Hey Truthy its 2010 if you missed it. :P]
Yet he’s hankering for the good old days – and of course when Jethro Tull were HUGE 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsCyC1dZiN8
Hmmmmmm, I seem to remember after 911, all Muslim looking person was kinda “the terrorist”. Just ask Dino Jones. I mean “the terrorist” was playing our game cricket for goodness sake.
[Finns @ 180 – the wording of your original post is ambiguous, as I tried to point out. ]
Zoom, No prob. I have learned to be ambiguous from the master himself, Diog 👿
William . #188 . Noted.
Frank – #185 . All my posts have federal implications. The swing to Labor in NSW is 1%. Nationwide it is 4%. Yet federal policies are the same across the nation. Either NSW is the new Qld or something is horribly wrong in NSW. However, once again note #188.
[Hey Truthy its 2010 if you missed it.]
Yep and we have yet another political party ignoring the silent majority.
Better be careful, never take your current position for granted you may get burnt. The lefties are a minority in this country, so Rudd should ignore them and listen to the silent majority on this issue, we are a democracy after all.
I’m not sure how anyone could listen to a silent majority…
[TheTruthHurts
Posted Monday, January 4, 2010 at 6:02 pm | Permalink
…..
Newspoll 10-12 March 2006 Coalition 45% Labor 35%]
TTH, it is 2010, 2006 was along time ago.
The open question; are you smart enough to understand what the “two party preferred” result means, and if you understood what it meant would you stop banging on about boat people?
Rua:
[I hope you all ate too much, drank less than I did.]
Good to see you back Rua.
Give ’em heaps.