Quarterly cumulative Newspoll and other stories

The Australian has published its quarterly accumulation of Newspoll results, allowing large-sample breakdowns over state, sex, age and capitals versus non-capitals. Samantha Maiden of The Australian judges the salient feature of the results to be a bounce to Labor in “non-capitals” from 49-51 to 53-47, but a look at the results over time suggests the earlier result was an aberration. In the capitals the score has been in a narrow band from 58-42 to 60-40; currently it is at the high end. A shift to Labor in Queensland from 51-49 to 56-44 looks a little counter-intuitive, and again the previous result looks to have been out of character. Interesting to note the Greens are up three points to 17 per cent among the 18-34 group, but basically stable elsewhere. Labor has dropped four points among 18-34s since the election, while edging up slightly in older cohorts. All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.

Two ageing items I forgot to include in the previous post:

• Way back on December 13, The Sunday Age reported unions appeared to have scuttled a plan to cap corporate donations and double public funding of parties, which had been the subject of negotiations between Labor and Liberal. The plan was to bring Australia roughly in line with Canada and New Zealand by capping donations at $1500 and increasing public funding from $2.20 to $4.25. Significantly, Mark Skulley of the Financial Review reported in October that Labor had conceded to the Liberals a ban on corporations, third parties and associated entities that would extend to union affiliation fee, which had union leaders fearing a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party. The plan also included an amendment to restrict political advertising by third parties.

Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported a few weeks ago on a deal in which Hajnal Ban, who was the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007, would sit as a Liberal if successful in her bid for the new seat of Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. All Coalition candidates in Queensland will run under the LNP banner, so a deal has had to be arranged as to which party rooms they will join.

Note also that Ben Raue at The Tally Room has completed 41 out of 150 profiles for his federal election guide, the last addition before a new year hiatus being North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Quarterly cumulative Newspoll and other stories”

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  1. Fulvio

    1. Indigenous people do not claim that the whole of Australia is sacred.
    2. Uluru is particularly sacred to Indigenous people who are its traditional owners.
    3. Indigenous people have made it very clear they do not want people to climb Uluru.

    I trust that the next time Mr Rudd does a doorstop interview outside his favourite Canberra christian church some enterprising journo asks him the following question:

    ‘Mr Rudd how would you feel it total strangers took it upon themselves to start climbing over the altar of your church and defecating on it? Further, Mr Rudd, how would you feel if this was made possible because that is the way the Prime Minister of Australia wants it?’

    The apology was about a terrible catalogue of wrongs done to Indigenous people.
    The apology is unfinished business, because, unlike when non-Indigenous people are wronged by Australian governments, there has been no compensation.

    The apology is further tarnished when new wrongs are egregiously added to old wrongs.

    Rudd cannot have it both ways.

  2. don
    Posted Friday, January 8, 2010 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    “Your faith in the messiah is touching but misplaced. I have no idea why you think he (Adam) is anything but a condescending arrogant so and so.”

    a condescending arrogant so and so , knob , is th word that comes to mind

    a snobby academic over eagr to show how much he “learnt” at Uni , wishing to use th Labor Party for his advansement , but without any ‘feel’ for who Labor represents (being th varous broad groupings of ‘working familys’) , which is th reverse of what he actualy is

  3. I hear and am sympathetic towards your argument. Personally, I would not climb Uluru as a gesture of respect towards Aboriginal culture and beliefs.

    But Uluru is not just a part of Aboriginal beliefs, it is also a part of Australia, it is a huge, unique and magnificent geological structure and is a world heritage listed area.

    In a very real sense it belongs to the world as well as to indigenous Australians, and the world is surely entitled to see it and touch it.

    I don’t claim to have the answers, but I think I have correctly identified the questions, and it is just not practical nor reasonable for such a universal treasure to be the exclusive domain of one culture.

  4. Didn’t Paul Hogan famously say in the movie Crocodile Dundee: The traditional people don’t believe they own the land, they are simply looking after it. It will still be here long after they and us are gone.

    I have to agree with this view. The “we own this” thing has got to stop. Fair enough they can take care of it, but if walking up is not damaging anything wheres the problem.

  5. Ronster

    Adam is going to be just thrilled to have you back. We’ll stick up for you when he demonstrates his ignorance of the superiority of your much more sophisticated language over his very proper Oxford English.

  6. Oh goody. Lord “lock up everyone with AIDS” Monckton is coming out for the next reading of the CPRS.

    [THE man known as the “high priest” of climate change sceptics, Lord Christopher Monckton, will fire up the debate with a speaking tour of Australia starting this month.

    The visit is timed to coincide with the reintroduction of the government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) bill to Federal Parliament on February 2.

    Lord Monckton will visit Australia at the invitation of two Sunshine Coast climate change non-believers.

    Engineer John Smeed said he and a friend, retiree Case Smit, were having lunch and “crying in our beer about what Mr Rudd was going to do to us”, when they decided there was no point just whingeing.

    The pair contacted Australian climate change sceptic Professor Ian Plimer, who was with Lord Monckton at the Copenhagen conference.]


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