The Australian has published its quarterly accumulation of Newspoll results, allowing large-sample breakdowns over state, sex, age and capitals versus non-capitals. Samantha Maiden of The Australian judges the salient feature of the results to be a bounce to Labor in “non-capitals” from 49-51 to 53-47, but a look at the results over time suggests the earlier result was an aberration. In the capitals the score has been in a narrow band from 58-42 to 60-40; currently it is at the high end. A shift to Labor in Queensland from 51-49 to 56-44 looks a little counter-intuitive, and again the previous result looks to have been out of character. Interesting to note the Greens are up three points to 17 per cent among the 18-34 group, but basically stable elsewhere. Labor has dropped four points among 18-34s since the election, while edging up slightly in older cohorts. All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.
Two ageing items I forgot to include in the previous post:
• Way back on December 13, The Sunday Age reported unions appeared to have scuttled a plan to cap corporate donations and double public funding of parties, which had been the subject of negotiations between Labor and Liberal. The plan was to bring Australia roughly in line with Canada and New Zealand by capping donations at $1500 and increasing public funding from $2.20 to $4.25. Significantly, Mark Skulley of the Financial Review reported in October that Labor had conceded to the Liberals a ban on corporations, third parties and associated entities that would extend to union affiliation fee, which had union leaders fearing a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party. The plan also included an amendment to restrict political advertising by third parties.
• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported a few weeks ago on a deal in which Hajnal Ban, who was the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007, would sit as a Liberal if successful in her bid for the new seat of Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. All Coalition candidates in Queensland will run under the LNP banner, so a deal has had to be arranged as to which party rooms they will join.
Note also that Ben Raue at The Tally Room has completed 41 out of 150 profiles for his federal election guide, the last addition before a new year hiatus being North Sydney.
An astrologer has predicted that turnbull will go his own way in 2010, forging a third party for what it’s worth. Now many may say pfft astrology what a load of malarky….but then we have half the country believing in other less plausible fairy tales such as son of god, messiah, mohammod blah blah blah.
I hope he stays and creats as much hvoc as possible, goes renogade, and continues to lob grenades from the back bench.
[but then we have half the country believing in other less plausible fairy tales such as son of god, messiah, mohammod blah blah blah.]
centaur, 5% of US population, they believe that they have been abducted by Aliens once.
The unions and the ALP should be separated because their affiliation leads to too much ALP based politicking in the unions and too much union elite sway over the ALP.
Ban the affiliation fee. Double public funding. Introduce free political broadcasts on the commercial channels and SBS.
“All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.”
ad excelent prev post by Aristotle , a notonal gain of 26 seats
This 3 months included much MSN on interst rate rises , libs disunity and agree Aristotle also Assylum seekers with Libs scares on boats , CC Copenhaggen , CC bith Greens opositon & Libs 1/2 deniel & 1/2 suport for CC
So far , no dents in Labor vote I’ve preedicted this dent for 2 years believing 54/46 was best acheivable with 91-93 seats won , but polls keep well abov that at about 58/42
may even do so till electon campaign , but if that way day after electon then then i will be wRONg , and by gees will been happy to been so although with th celebratons then in full VB modes i wont care
I once read somewhere that, in laboratory conditions, scientists had successfully got people to hallucinate about UFO contacts, from the point where the UFO was encountered to being beamed up inside.
Alas, I do not know whether there have been further breakthroughs in this obviously vital piece of scientific research.
Tom
[The unions and the ALP should be separated]
Er…and how exactly are you going to be able to do this?
Ban unionists from being ALP members?
“scientists had successfully got people to hallucinate about UFO contacts, from the point where the UFO was encountered to being BEAMED UP inside.”
beamed up , so we may be close to just beam people away into th never nevers , geez Abbott better not slip over one of those ‘beaming’ thingos Zoomster
[geez Abbott better not slip over one of those ‘beaming’ thingos Zoomster]
Amigo Ronnie, if this not an alien, tell me what is:
For those interested in climate science and sustainable energy, here is a list of recent books and a quick review about them at BNC.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/12/31/energy-and-climate-books-i-read-in-2009/
Sorry to be mean but several astrologer’s repeatable said Kim Beasley would beat John Howard.
6
No just end the affiliation fees and votes at conferences. Unions are then not useful as tools for the control of the ALP and thus have less ALP career seekers in them and the ALP is controlled by its individual members who then might be a bit more sensible and possibly even less factional.
Tom o dear Tom the ALP are a non event without the Union Movement.
The Unions gave birth to the ALP and whilst they do disagree on many issues but regardless the Unions will always be the ALP’s parents
[Tom o dear Tom the ALP are a non event without the Union Movement.
The Unions gave birth to the ALP and whilst they do disagree on many issues but regardless the Unions will always be the ALP’s parents]
Except for the WA Branch of the CFMEU – St Bob is more than welcome to Heavy Kevvie and Jousting Joe 🙂
Zoomster , th Greens actualy want Union affilatons fees not going to th Labor Party , in tandem with Labors proposal re personal donations limitatons , and hav a tax payer funded electons that my guess would be 250 miullion per electon
Govt is also lookin at corporate donatons
yu remeber Keating had a limit of 1,000 per person , howard increased it to 10,000 per person , meaning wealthy donors individualy donatng per house like dad , mum , all th kids , cousins , th dog , th cats , and th local parrot , all 10,000 each
Labor was created from Unions , and its ties will continue and so they should , they remind th Party executives of th working mans needs , problams , potentialy inadequate wages & living standards so that Labor policy reflects it….which is why tom you ar in error , Labors policy ar sensible , for ordinary Australians
ALL other Partys ar jealous that th “working man” via unions has th affinity for th Labor Party , with justificaton , and
BH , just saw this post
“Ron my boomarang won’t come back
BH But if it does Ron I’m one who hopes it hits them where it hurts most. lol”
Absoluteley BH , agree !!!
Also Gary , just saw your post I did realise you thought that , was doing an inverted jest to reely suport your earlier post which i agree with Talling of ‘tracks’ , it reminds me of our train engine driver PM Ben Chifley , which then reminds me of his great speech about Labor party equity Principals & th “lite on th hill’
Zoomster
Come to think of it, it was two guys and a girl, so could be!
Well unlike Samantha I see several ‘salient features’ in the aggregated Newspoll.
Particularly when the point of comparison is with the ’07 election results.
Taking that as the comparison point then, looking at primaries:
-the COALition is performing worse in every demographic category by lots.
-the ALP is performing slightly better in nearly alll categories, except NSW and males with slight decreases.
-the Greens are performing considerably better in every category, usually by around 3-4% with the standout the doubling of their support in the youngest age group.
The Greens have increased their support in every category by a larger margin than the ALP.
-Looking at 2PP, clearly the COALition have gone backwards and the ALP have increased by 4.3% from 52.7% at the election to 57% Oct-Dec.
Giving the ALP a 70% average 2nd preference flow rate from the Greens then at least half of the ALP 2PP increase comes from the Greens.
And perhaps the most salient figure of all is that this current trend, if it were maintained to the next election, would result in many extra seats for the ALP.
Tom the first and best # @ 3
The unions and the ALP should be separated because their affiliation leads to too much ALP based politicking in the unions and too much union elite sway over the ALP.
What is wrong with politicking in a union? Maybe it is like too much Green politicking within the Environment movement or business politicking within the Libs or National politicking within farmers Groups
One of the important pillars of a democratic system is an engaged citizenry and here we have a silly suggestion that will lessen the opportunity for people to be engaged.
The current system of political funding seems fair to me in that most will get some financial support however those that are able to raise addition funds from the public (because they have a repour with the public) have a chance to do better.
However the question must be asked why would anyone try and limit the involvement of any group of voters in the political process. The answer come to mind is that they perceive some gain for themselves and their cause. However, this does not mean that they are really concerned for the democratic process – just their own advancement.
mb @ 10
[Sorry to be mean but several astrologer’s repeatable said Kim Beasley would beat John Howard.]
Well, in a sense he has, since Kim left the field with his reputation intact, whereas JWH was carted off mortally wounded.
Just a further word on the notional 26 seats.
If achieved at the next election, this would give the ALP, 109 seats, or 73% of the seats. This would be a record (post war).
Assuming all post war parliaments had 150 members, only 2 Govts held the equivalent of more than 100 seats.
Fraser 1975 – 108 seats (72% of the seats) , Fraser 1977 – 104 seats (69% of the seats), Holt came close in 1966 with the equivalent of 99 seats (66% of the seats).
Menzies never cracked the ton equivalent, nor Hawke 1983 (90 seats) nor Howard 1996 (94 seats) either.
Quite remarkable, really.
18
I am talking about people working in organisations (unions) entirely/mainly for the purpose of getting power within a political party (the ALP). It does seem like there are some union officials who would act differently if they were not looking for a career in the ALP. Much of the factionalism in the ALP seems to come from the union elite who control half the votes in conferences.
Finns @ 2
[centaur, 5% of US population, they believe that they have been abducted by Aliens once.]
Just shows what a way out there crackpot idea that is. Usually you can take any weird idea you can dream up and find 10% of Americans to agree with it. Often wondered if it is the same 10%.
[The unions and the ALP should be separated because their affiliation leads to too much ALP based politicking in the unions and too much union elite sway over the ALP.]
I love how people who are not actively involved with either the unions or the Labor party feel free to offer advice about how both sets of organisations should be structured.
[What is wrong with politicking in a union?]
Nothing when it is about the politics of the union. But too often it is about the politics of the union leaders looking after the party, rather than their rank and file members, or about whichever union official is ready to get their reward as a political appointee somewhere.
Affiliation of unions with the party guarantees such behaviour with the union behaving as an arm of the party, before looking after the interests of its members.
The pressure is for no activist union ‘brush fires’ that might embarrass a Labor government. Many keener union members would rather have the Libs in power because they ‘know their enemy’ and have the freedom to be activist for improvements. Many of the worst outcomes for union members have been engineered under Labor governments with the agreement of tame union leaderships. The infamous ‘Accord’, for example.
I think the Greens should be seperate from conservation and environmental groups. Too much influence on their policies. No environmentalist should be a Green.
Hang on, are there any Green environmentalists?
[ The unions and the ALP should be separated because their affiliation leads to too much ALP based politicking in the unions and too much union elite sway over the ALP.
I love how people who are not actively involved with either the unions or the Labor party feel free to offer advice about how both sets of organisations should be structured.]
Especially when those critics are from a political party who cannot elect House of Reps/Lower House on their own merits and under the current rules and want legislative changes so they can get an easier ride.
[I think the Greens should be seperate from conservation and environmental groups. Too much influence on their policies. No environmentalist should be a Green.
Hang on, are there any Green environmentalists?]
Can we refer to them as the Greens Party please, certainly the Greens Party does not have the monopoly on environmental wisdom.
“The current system of political funding seems fair to me in that most will get some financial support however those that are able to raise addition funds from the public (because they have a repour with the public) have a chance to do better.”
So your saying that the ALP have a better rapor with workers then anyone else? What about the union members who are members/supporters of the Greens? Their Union is affiliated with a party they dont agree with.
From what you say, that means their union should pay the Greens as well.
There are a lot of people in ALP affiliated unions who do not agree with or belong to the ALP. This should mean that either a proportion of their affiliation fee goes to a party they choose, or no union fees at all.
Of course the Union heavies like Bill Shorten would hate that, it would mean a union would be democratic.
[Can we refer to them as the Greens Party please, certainly the Greens Party does not have the monopoly on environmental wisdom]
Tell that to St Bob and his motley crew of Acolytes 🙂
allegory, I agree. The Green party certainly doesn’t hold all the wisdom on environmental issues. However, they also get blamed by the media and all other parties for the actions of the wider environmental movement.
So either the Green party IS the environment movement(which it isn’t).
Or it no longer gets blamed for the actions of extreme environment groups it has nothing to do with.
Democracy is rule by majority consensus, Dave, not the right of the individual to do his own thing when the majority don’t agree with him.
Convince the majority of your union to back the Greens, and Bobs your uncle.
Until then be democratic.
Are we to no longer call the Liberals the Liberals since the Liberal Party does not have a monopoly on liberalism? Or Labor no longer Labor because the Labor Party does not perform, much less monopolise, labour?
Tom
I remember seeing John Robertson, then head of Unions NSW, address people outside the NSW State Conference in May 2008. He spoke eloquently and passionately. I was most impressed. Some 6 months later he accepts an invitation to come inside the tent. He is appointed to cabinet and presides over the privatisation of Parklea Jail as well as sitting in a cabinet which is attempting to sell off electricity by the back door. It appears that he has sold out his soul to the forces of darkness. All for what?
What I’m saying, Tom, is that there is no practical way of separating the ALP and the unions unless they want to be separated. You could, of course, bring in all sorts of legislation which would have to, by its nature, undermine the principle of ‘freedom of association’.
If unions are not allowed to pay money to the ALP (I would assume therefore that all organisations are also not allowed to donate to parties) what is to stop them making multiple donations on behalf of individual members?
If unions are not allocated a certain number of places in conference (not necessarily something I agree with), what is to stop them ‘stacking’ branches and achieving the same result?
Changes to the relationship of the ALP and its donor organisations are surely their business. Yes, by all means make donations transparent.
Once again, Tom, you seem to be arguing for something not because it’s a good idea but because it will give your preferred party an advantage.
I don’t know if it is still true, but the unions used to be the training ground for Labor politicians.
It taught them all the basic political skills (I leave it to others to enumerate them!) and gave them a springboard for preselection.
The libs start out flat footed on their political learning curve, whereas labor candidates hit the ground running.
With these type of numbers its hard to imagine any real shift.
Interesting to see that poor analysis of the graphs,(In the Aussie) there is still this pathetic attempt to have a ‘Abbott’ cult pumped up. Its just not going to happen, same in Vic, poor old Ted.
Roll on 2010.
[32……William Bowe
Are we to no longer call the Liberals the Liberals…?]
They are increasingly apt to call themselves Conservatives. But I think they should be called the Orrible Nasty Liars Party.
Tom the first and best @ # 21
I am talking about people working in organisations (unions) entirely/mainly for the purpose of getting power within a political party (the ALP).
What is wrong with any person taking a particular job so as to advance their career? It happens all the time. It is called gaining experience.
It does seem like there are some union officials who would act differently if they were not looking for a career in the ALP.
This is nothing more than guess work. If the members of a Union are unhappy with any official, they have means of rectifying the situation. Also it is a big assumption to conclude that a Unions best interest is not aligned with that of the ALP.
Much of the factionalism in the ALP seems to come from the union elite who control half the votes in conferences.
What is wrong with factions? It happens in all organisations including all other political parties. A faction is a grouping of people who have similar ideas. The only different between the APL and the other political parties is that the ALP is honest enough to admit that they have groups within the party that don’t always think the same on any particular issue.
It appears that self-interest is the driver for this idea not a desire for the better running of Unions or the ALP.
[This is nothing more than guess work. If the members of a Union are unhappy with any official, they have means of rectifying the situation. Also it is a big assumption to conclude that a Unions best interest is not aligned with that of the ALP]
It’s funny Tom doesn’t mention a certain member of the CFMEU currently facing certain criminal charges in Bali and his membership to the Nationals 🙂
I think, William, it’s more that referring to all conservationists as ‘Greens’ blurs the division between the political party and those who support the same principles but aren’t necessarily of it.
And we do talk of ‘labour’ as separate to the ALP and of ‘liberalism’ as separate to the Liberal party.
What we don’t do is equate the actions of liberals with the Liberal party, or the actions of organised labour with the ALP.
I’ve certainly argued for a long time that it is a disadvantage for The Greens to be confused with the greenies.
Dave @ # 28
So your saying that the ALP have a better rapor with workers then anyone else?
It is clear that the amount of money that a political party raises is a measure of the support it has within the community. The more people support a party’s platform/policies the more money it is likely to raise.
If you want “your Union” to donate to someone else you have ample opportunity through the democratic processes of the Union to make it happen.
Until you get the majority of the union to think like you then the democratic will of the Union should be followed.
Don,
[The libs start out flat footed on their political learning curve, whereas labor candidates hit the ground running.]
Not quite. The AMA and business associations have been a popular recruiting ground for the Libs as has the various University Student Unions and Associations.
I could never understand the Libs strategy to try and destroy the student unions/guilds just to cut of an avenue of political training for Labor and the Greens as it was also a good training ground for their own pollies also.
Coming up through the ranks of the Young Libs and as staffers to existing pollies just doesn’t cut as far as I am concerned.
The robust democratic environment of the Trade Union Movement is a “good” training ground for future politicians as was/is the student unions.
[ It’s funny Tom doesn’t mention a certain member of the CFMEU currently facing certain criminal charges in Bali ]
Mate, please set out a list of all members of all Unions who are currently facing criminal charges.
Don’t forget to include Ark Tribe who is facing charges under draconian Industrial Laws which Rudd has left in place.
After we wxamine that list – what are we to conclude? That some members of Unions are facing criminal charges. Just like every other section of society e.g. Victorian ALP MP on drink drivig charges.
Peter Young,
You don’t miss an opportunity do you.
The emphasis was on his “Membership” of the “National Party” and his recent candidature as a Nationals representative for election. “Not” his “union membership!
I also think that the training provided by the unions is a good one for politics.
The Liberals are mostly lawyers: trained to look for evidence to fit their brief, rather than looking at the evidence to reach a position. They’re trained to be adversarial.
Unionists, on the other hand, are trained to negotiate, to sit down and work through problems. Good ones consider the wholistic well being of their members, not just their pay, but their working conditions, safety, etc.
So a unionist approaching a political issue is going to think in terms of negotiation and of good outcomes for people; a lawyer is going to think in terms of the best interest of their client and of winning the case.
Just a reality check for those who think deep and intimate links between the ALP and the trade union movement are a good thing. What percentage of Australian workers belong to a trade union? I think something like 22% or 23%, right? The reality is that the ALP is totally unelectable unless it is heavily supported by non-unionised workers. The reality is that the economy has changed. More people are contractors or otherwise self-employed. Many big companies offer their workforces very good pay and conditions, because it is in their own economic interest to have a stable and contented workforce. Formerly heavily unionised blue-colour occupations like mining, transport and manufacturing have been transformed in recent decades, the old type of blue-colour job has gone. A high proportion of people in the community are hostile to trade unionism.
I’m not sure the ALP would be wise to sever links completely with the trade union movement, I wouldn’t advocate that, but it should be an arms-length relationship. They are different organisations with different objectives, and intimate links between the two would be electoral poison for the ALP.
Finns,
You were mistaken about the Aussie Cricketers dedicating their innings to the murdered Pakistanis. Like good Aussie boys they dedicated their innings total of 127 to the number of seats labor will win in the HOR at the next election.
Scorpio@42:
[Not quite. The AMA and business associations have been a popular recruiting ground for the Libs as has the various University Student Unions and Associations.]
True, but do you really think they have as much blood and guts on the floor as your average union meeting? I don’t speak from experience here, but I’ve heard stories…
And Kev telling the faction heaviies they could go and get flipped if they thought they were going to get their way smacks of the sort of thing I mean. I suspect that laborites tell it like it is more than their more genteel brethren on the other side of the house.
[I could never understand the Libs strategy to try and destroy the student unions/guilds just to cut of an avenue of political training for Labor and the Greens as it was also a good training ground for their own pollies also.]
I’ve never thought of it that way, but you are quite right.
[Coming up through the ranks of the Young Libs and as staffers to existing pollies just doesn’t cut as far as I am concerned.]
Agreed, but staffers to existing pollies must get a pretty thorough grounding in the art of the possible, and dealing with difficult people.
PC@46:
[They are different organisations with different objectives, and intimate links between the two would be electoral poison for the ALP.]
And how did that pan out in the federal election of 2007?
Don’t be ridiculous.
[Aussie boys they dedicated their innings total of 127 to the number of seats labor will win in the HOR at the next election.]
GG, where the bloody hell is the 2PP for Bingy and Clarky ? He was saved by his undies this afternoon, otherwise it would have been been sayonara with Bingy.
[Security sources have told the The Sunday Telegraph that Ms Bingle has become a mainstay in the area, known for her nights out in swanky clubs while her cricketer fiance, Michael Clarke is on tour.
Police fear a patron of one of the clubs Bingle is known to frequent may have been involved in the theft.
While not suspected of any links to the theft of the car, Bingle’s friends in the Cross include John Ibrahim and the Freeman brothers. Bingle has been seen attending the upmarket Piano Room nightclub, which Ibrahim promotes.
The Piano Room is a known hotspot for members of the Notorious street gang.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sunday-telegraph/cops-probe-lara-bingle-party-set/story-e6frewt0-1225815531070