Quarterly cumulative Newspoll and other stories

The Australian has published its quarterly accumulation of Newspoll results, allowing large-sample breakdowns over state, sex, age and capitals versus non-capitals. Samantha Maiden of The Australian judges the salient feature of the results to be a bounce to Labor in “non-capitals” from 49-51 to 53-47, but a look at the results over time suggests the earlier result was an aberration. In the capitals the score has been in a narrow band from 58-42 to 60-40; currently it is at the high end. A shift to Labor in Queensland from 51-49 to 56-44 looks a little counter-intuitive, and again the previous result looks to have been out of character. Interesting to note the Greens are up three points to 17 per cent among the 18-34 group, but basically stable elsewhere. Labor has dropped four points among 18-34s since the election, while edging up slightly in older cohorts. All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.

Two ageing items I forgot to include in the previous post:

• Way back on December 13, The Sunday Age reported unions appeared to have scuttled a plan to cap corporate donations and double public funding of parties, which had been the subject of negotiations between Labor and Liberal. The plan was to bring Australia roughly in line with Canada and New Zealand by capping donations at $1500 and increasing public funding from $2.20 to $4.25. Significantly, Mark Skulley of the Financial Review reported in October that Labor had conceded to the Liberals a ban on corporations, third parties and associated entities that would extend to union affiliation fee, which had union leaders fearing a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party. The plan also included an amendment to restrict political advertising by third parties.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported a few weeks ago on a deal in which Hajnal Ban, who was the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007, would sit as a Liberal if successful in her bid for the new seat of Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. All Coalition candidates in Queensland will run under the LNP banner, so a deal has had to be arranged as to which party rooms they will join.

Note also that Ben Raue at The Tally Room has completed 41 out of 150 profiles for his federal election guide, the last addition before a new year hiatus being North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Quarterly cumulative Newspoll and other stories”

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  1. #860
    [ I am just “thinking” about the value of having a high profile, particularly in State elections. I envisaged a factor of between 5-15% for the high profile – without anything else. McCaffery’s 10% seems to fit inside that range.]

    I have come across another example.

    David Evans got 14% of the vote in the state seat of Tamworth in 1991.

    He ran as an independent. I have been unable to ascertain any particular platform he ran on but understand he ran some “feel good” TV commercials.

    He fronted the nightly half hour local news segment, broadcast by NEN-9, transmitted from studios located in the city of Tamworth.

    Both McCaffery (South Coast 2003) and Evans (Tamworth 1991) contested rural or regional seats, where a high profile in the geographically isolated areas are probably easier to achieve than in metropolitan seats. However, I will keep looking. What I am really looking for is candidates who really had no platform and did not actively campaign, in order to isolate the value of a high profile as a stand alone factor.

  2. It’s hilarious to watch governments as they head to the polls, particularly when they are behind in opinion polling.
    Remember, the Liberals “leadership crisis” in September 2007, when Howard even considered stepping down as leader, in an attempt to avert disaster at the poll due that year (actually held in November).
    The UK is due to go to the polls this year (May ?). The government is badly behind in opinion polling but has made some ‘recovery’ of late. Almost in textbook fashion, members of the PM’s party have been agitating for a spill – even this close to an election. It seems the crisis has been averted for the moment.
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6978410.ece
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6978491.ece

    Meanwhile back in Australia, chapter 10 of the textbook is also being followed with the NSW government changing leaders a respectable 15 months out from the 2011 election, after having already changed leaders once before in the current term. If polls don’t pick from a record low of 26% for the government, will we see another leadership challenge closer to the March 2011?

  3. Well, well, well.

    The Australian reports that Peter Spencer, pole sitter extraordinaire, has a history of threatening self harm when he didn’t get his own way, that he is not a farmer, but was in business and PR, that he owns very marginal land whose farming potential is highly questionable, and owes a family member a million dollars he borrowed but can’t or won’t pay back.

    And he’s been taking vitamins, lemon juice and water, which by the look of the photo of him on the OO’s site, must be highly nutritious, if not outright fattening.

    Further, his own brother says the whole episode has little to do with compensation, but a whole lot to do with other, unspecified, issues, and blames the media and self serving politicians for beating the whole thing up and using him for their personal political advantage.

    Now, Barnaby, tell us more about this valiant hero of the land, and why Rudd should waste any time on him.

    For me, the biggest surprise is that the OO would publish this admission. Probably the only example of honest, factual reporting of a political story by them since Labor won office.

  4. Fulvio Sammut @ 1003 – Mr Spencer in a sense is representative of farmers, and specifically the sense of grievance, and expectation that the community owes them, which so many of them manifest.

    I can’t recall a single period in my life when the farmers weren’t whingeing about one thing or another. One thing that particularly sticks in my mind was an interview with a farmer rep some years ago, when something unfortunate but predictable had happened, and he was saying “we don’t want loans, we want grants!” When mutual obligation was all the rage, can anyone remember the concept being applied to farmers?

    There are undoubtedly some great people out on the land. But I have zero sympathy for the ones who “minimise” tax through family trusts, blow the money they make from the good years, hold their hands out when the bad years come, and assume that the community is obliged to maintain their lifestyles by keeping them on marginally viable farms. Like everyone else, they have a choice of jobs: nobody is forced to be a farmer.

  6. GG@939:

    [Here’s a paper by the ratbag Paul Watson from the Sea Shepherd. These jokers are looking for a gas leak with a match. They better hope they don’t find one.]

    I must have missed something. It just looked like typical looney green stuff to me. Living in small villages separated by wilderness.

    The usual ratbaggery, just taken to extremes, and it’s never going to happen.

    What amuses me is that it was written, and will be read, on a PC, the product of the same technology driven society that he pours vitriol on.

  7. FV@935:

    [See, Don?]

    No, I don’t.

    TTH has been remarkably consistent in his stupidity, Adam’s presence did not make one iota of difference.

    Your faith in the messiah is touching but misplaced. I have no idea why you think he is anything but a condescending arrogant so and so.

  9. Peter at 1001:

    [ David Evans got 14% of the vote in the state seat of Tamworth in 1991.

    …

    He fronted the nightly half hour local news segment, broadcast by NEN-9, transmitted from studios located in the city of Tamworth. ]

    This is very similar to Noel Brunning, who ran for the federal seat of Forrest in WA (safe Liberal) at the 2007 election. He reads GWN TV news, which transmits to most parts of rural WA and is run out of Bunbury, the regional city which makes up about half Forrest’s population. He got about 15% of the vote, too.

  10. [… after having already changed leaders once before in the current term. If polls don’t pick from a record low of 26% for the government, will we see another leadership challenge closer to the March 2011?]
    I doubt it.

  14. I don’t read the Australian newspaper, Thus I am very glad to read the posts on this site. I get to see all the interesting things I would otherwise miss. 😆

  15. $9000 to chair a meeting on ethics. I hope they can see the irony.

    [STATE MPS are pocketing more than $9000 for a single meeting as they double-dip into the public purse.

    All but seven of the 70 Labor MPs have been handed lucrative second government posts on top of their already handsome pay packets.

    Among them are Coogee MP Paul Pearce who was last year paid an extra $18,276 on top of his $130,000 base salary for chairing just two meetings of the standing committee on parliamentary privilege and ethics.

    That works out to more than $9000 in salary and expenses for each meeting.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-labor-mps-accused-of-double-dipping-on-salaries/story-e6freuy9-1225817143152

  16. Peter: a couple more for you… the best performing independents at the last WA election. (Apart from sitting independents or ex-party members.) There was Carol Adams in Kwinana, who got 23.0% and damn near won a totally unlosable Labor seat, and Bill Stewart, who got 17.9% in Carine (came third). Adams was mayor of Kwinana, Stewart a Stirling councillor. Another Stirling councillor, Elizabeth Re got 9.1% in Scarborough, but then got re-elected with 70% in Doubleview ward in the council elections a year later, so obviously being on the council ain’t everything.

  17. Bird of paradox – #1016

    Many thanks again. However, subject to checking, I suspect the recent ones you have nominated probably had a platform (other than – “You know me, you trust me, Vote 1 for me”) and probably actively campaigned.
    Still interesting though.

  19. Peter, nothing shocks or surprises me in politics. KK has been put there by the dominant right and, unless she is found sleeping around or taking bribes I’d say she is going to be there to face the music. Someone has to be the sacrificial lamb for the party. If she can save some furniture that will be a bonus.

  20. DIOGENES – #1015

    Don’t get me started !
    I am actually doing the research right now to try and ascertain if in the course of this parliament there are any Labor MP’s who are not presently, or haven’t been, in receipt of additional salary. I have a fair bit of work to do, but I have come up with one person who qualifies (and I’m not expecting many more). That person has been reported to be the wealthiest man in the NSW parliament.

  22. Interestingly I was talking to a person who is involved in the production of news for a commercial tv station recently. Her explanation why some stories got a run and others didn’t, and the “slant” on news was that the producers selected those items which they perceived would maintain or increase market share. She said the item had to be slanted to the demographics of existing viewers. She said it had to be what they wanted to hear and see. If it wasn’t that, viewers were likely to switch channels to find news that was within their comfort zone.

  24. Don, you misundersood my “See, Don?” post.

    You said Psephos did not deter the likes of TTH.

    I said a nuclear bomb could not destroy some insects.

    TTH posted a few moments later.

    I said “See Don?” inrelation to TTH’s continued posting.

    Oh well, it seemed funny at the time …

  25. #1019 – Gary Bruce

    [ Someone has to be the sacrificial lamb for the party. If she can save some furniture that will be a bonus.]

    Are you saying the decision to appoint Keneally has nothing to do with the good governance of NSW over the next 15 months, but simply to save some Labor furniture?

  26. Fulvio

    It looks like the ability of insects, esp cockroaches, to withstand a nuclear bomb are overrated although some wasps and the humble fruit fly are pretty good.

    Deinococcus radiodurans, or Conan the Bacterium, seems to be the king.

  30. [Are you saying the decision to appoint Keneally has nothing to do with the good governance of NSW over the next 15 months, but simply to save some Labor furniture?]
    I don’t recall saying that.

  31. In fact Peter I said quite the opposite. To save the furniture she will have to show “good governance”. Surely even you can see that.

  32. [Accuweather’s meteorologist Joe Bastardi likes to push anti-science global cooling conspiracy theories, which is no doubt why Fox News extremists like Bill O’Reilly love him (see O’Reilly’s weatherman, befuddled Bastardi: “Global cooling is actually a cause of drought in California”).

    Now Bastardi has a new video, “Worldwide Cold not Seen Since 70s Ice Age Scare,” pushing a very old conspiracy theory. Of course, he doesn’t actually talk about “worldwide cold,” but just some cold over maybe 20% of the Earth. Nor does he explain there’s plenty of warmth elsewhere — see Australian weather bureau: “Central Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are now at their warmest level since the El Niño of 1997-98.?]

    http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/07/accuweather-meteorologist-joe-bastardi-pushes-the-70s-ice-age-scare-myth-science

    Bastard by name,bastard by nature.

  33. LOL the anti-whaling boat has sank.

    That was millions well spent. Maybe next time they should learn NOT to park their lightweight highly expensive dingy infront of a large fast moving ship.

  34. For those in South Australia who saw the Peter Spencer article on Today Tonight (I assume it was shown elsewhere) I e-mailed Channel Seven drawing their attention to the article in the Australian and also to the fact that what Spencer is protesting about is in response to what I believe is Howard government legislation. Mentioned that it was the usual beat-up that they present and perhaps they might in the light of the article in the Australian that they might retract their story and perhaps an apology to Kevin Rudd might be forthcoming for trying to blame him for all of Spencer’s woes or from the presenter Paul Makin in particular. I won’t be holding my breath waiting for one however.

  39. [Troothy a racist? NEVER!!]

    I didn’t even say anything racist.

    Bit like calling me a racist for saying MovieWorld tickets are over priced.

  41. [Bit like calling me a racist for saying MovieWorld tickets are over priced.]

    … because the entire racial group responsible for pricing MovieWorld tickets are “swindlers”.

  42. Looks like the Peter Spencer thing may be a League of Rights beat-up. With the revelations in the Australian newspaper and certain conspiracys being put about e.g. that some bus companies received calls claiming to be from the RTA warning anyone who drove a bus to the protest would lose their license, and thus protestors were either prevented from travelling to Canberra or had to go by car, it certainly looks that way.

  43. The editor of the regional newspaper, the Northern Daily Leader, wrote this:-
    [ The real concern in this sorry affair is a series of allegations made by a number of Mr Spencer’s supporters who were planning to attend a rally in his support in Canberra. They claim a man purporting to be from the Department of Transport and Infrastructure was ringing coach companies to exert pressure on the companies not fulfil their carriage contract to the national capital.
    Yesterday evening supporters were pooling private transport to head for the rally this morning at 10.30.
    One Quirindi man claimed the rally would be one of the biggest seen in Canberra – the bar was set by a farmers’ rally in July, 1985 when 45,000 turned out to protest against the Hawke Government.
    The man catalogued a list of events like National Parks and Wildlife Service officers seizing properties and turfing the owners off their land. This was news to The Leader as the act apparently occurred between Guyra and Uralla.
    He then began quoting constitutional law chapter and verse and edicts from a former chief justice of the High Court.
    The dislocated thought process in his explanation made it hard to truly understand the key issues.]
    http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/farmers-death-can-be-avoided/1717196.aspx

    Sounds like the Citizens Electoral Council or the League of Rights or whatever they call themselves.

  44. [… because the entire racial group responsible for pricing MovieWorld tickets are “swindlers”.]

    When I said that I was referring to the individuals in charge of administrating said attraction, not the entire population. Simply a misunderstanding.

    If anyone wants to see a giant big bloody rock, save yourselves $25 bucks and come to Townsville. You can climb up our big rock in about 20 minutes and get a great view of Magnetic Island, then climb back down and you are about a 10 minute walk down to The Strand where you can spend your $25 sitting on the beach drinking Goldies.

  45. I have happy memories of The Strand – but I don’t think they are fit for publication on a family orientated website like this.

  46. [Did you know a true racist never believes they say anything racist?]

    So that means everyones a racist? Do you admit you are racist?

    What a silly statement to make.

  47. Toothy

    I’m sure you will be just as accommodating to the rights of the tourists next time a group wants to climb onto the altar at St Peters and have a picnic. Because that is how the indigenous people view tourists climbing on Uluru.

  48. [I’m sure you will be just as accommodating to the rights of the tourists next time a group wants to climb onto the altar at St Peters and have a picnic. Because that is how the indigenous people view tourists climbing on Uluru.]

    I’m doing my bit to discourage tourists from going to Ayres Rock at all.

    You should be thanking me.

  49. Boerwar @ 1035.

    Most systems of religious belief have their sacred areas, call them churches, mosques, temples, shrines etc, confined to specific defined locations, usually built by the followers of that religion, and access to them is controlled by recognised religious authorities in accordance with clear and defined rules.

    It is therefore relatively easy for well intentioned societies to respect the sanctity and exclusivity of these sites.

    Aboriginal culture as I understand it, considers all land and sea as being vested with religious significance, with certain expansive geographical areas having more religious significance than others.

    Like it or not, this continent is largely now inhabited by non Aboriginal people (I understand only some 3% claim any degree of Aboriginality).

    To fully respect and accede to the religious beliefs of the Aboriginal people would require and involve the virtual cessation of all non hunter gatherer activity within the continent and surrounding seas. As a matter of practicality this cannot occur.

    It therefore becomes a balancing act on the part of the Government to accommodate the reasonable needs of the general populace, including finance, commerce and tourism, as well as the beliefs and expectations of that small percentage which is Aboriginal.

    It would appear to me to be self evident that in seeking to achieve this balance , the needs of the majority will to a large extent have to overide the beliefs of the minority.

    This is an entirely separate issue from society’s obligation to provide for the physical well being of the dispossessed and disadvantaged.

    It is the Aboriginals love, respect and worship of the land, which is all pervasive, that makes it impossible for any Government to satisfy what to Aboriginals are legitimate demands.

    All this, and most other Governments, have and are trying to do, with varying degrees of success or lack of it from a practical viewpoint, and with no possibility of success from the Aboriginal perspective, is to strike some form of balance.

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