Quarterly cumulative Newspoll and other stories

The Australian has published its quarterly accumulation of Newspoll results, allowing large-sample breakdowns over state, sex, age and capitals versus non-capitals. Samantha Maiden of The Australian judges the salient feature of the results to be a bounce to Labor in “non-capitals” from 49-51 to 53-47, but a look at the results over time suggests the earlier result was an aberration. In the capitals the score has been in a narrow band from 58-42 to 60-40; currently it is at the high end. A shift to Labor in Queensland from 51-49 to 56-44 looks a little counter-intuitive, and again the previous result looks to have been out of character. Interesting to note the Greens are up three points to 17 per cent among the 18-34 group, but basically stable elsewhere. Labor has dropped four points among 18-34s since the election, while edging up slightly in older cohorts. All told, the figures point to Labor swings of about 2 per cent swing in New South Wales, 5 per cent in Victoria and Queensland, 6 per cent in Western Australia and 7 per cent in South Australia.

Two ageing items I forgot to include in the previous post:

• Way back on December 13, The Sunday Age reported unions appeared to have scuttled a plan to cap corporate donations and double public funding of parties, which had been the subject of negotiations between Labor and Liberal. The plan was to bring Australia roughly in line with Canada and New Zealand by capping donations at $1500 and increasing public funding from $2.20 to $4.25. Significantly, Mark Skulley of the Financial Review reported in October that Labor had conceded to the Liberals a ban on corporations, third parties and associated entities that would extend to union affiliation fee, which had union leaders fearing a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party. The plan also included an amendment to restrict political advertising by third parties.

Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported a few weeks ago on a deal in which Hajnal Ban, who was the Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007, would sit as a Liberal if successful in her bid for the new seat of Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. All Coalition candidates in Queensland will run under the LNP banner, so a deal has had to be arranged as to which party rooms they will join.

Note also that Ben Raue at The Tally Room has completed 41 out of 150 profiles for his federal election guide, the last addition before a new year hiatus being North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,061 comments on “Quarterly cumulative Newspoll and other stories”

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  1. [Finns – I’d like to see a reference to that.]

    Diog, according to the Japanese. they didnt kill any Chinese. Like Toothy said it was war. You and Toothy are on the same level. Shame on you.

  2. [When the Second World War
    Came to an end
    We forgave the Germans
    And we were friends
    Though they murdered six million
    In the ovens they fried
    The Germans now too
    Have God on their side.]

    So are the Japanese. Sorry to drag you in Bob.

  3. It was war. People died.

    We need to forget about the past and move towards the future.

    Yeah, that Hitler chap wasn’t a bad fellow either, it was a war, and in war people die.

    :/

    Those who do not learn from the mistakes past are condemned to repeat them yada yada yada etc etc

    Seriously, if I made such a monumentally stupid statement like yours I don’t think I would ever be able to trust my own opinions ever again.

  4. Finns

    All I asked for was a reference, preferably a book.

    My favourite book ever “The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle” mentioned it.

  5. Finns

    Is this why you are grumpy? Did you get in trouble?

    [A TRAINER has been injured on Queensland’s Gold Coast by a falling dolphin.

    Ambulance officers were called to the Sea World theme park about 3.15pm (AEST) to find a trainer had sustained neck and back injuries after a dolphin fell on him, a Department of Community Safety spokeswoman said.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/trainer-injured-by-falling-dolphin/story-fn3dxity-1225817107585

  6. [Is this why you are grumpy? Did you get in trouble?]

    Diogenes, give Finns a break. You know that he doesn’t have an opposing thumb to hang onto the bar.

  7. Diog, btw, my Japanese good friend in the Gifu City told me today that the whaling incident is also big news in japan. See, i have forgiven the Japanese. There is a big stone in a ShintoTemple near Fukuoka, Kyushu, it inscribed: “No more war between China and Japan”.

  8. Finns

    The book talks about Japanese atrocities in Manchuria pre-WWI but it doesn’t provide a context. It refers to it as a Forgotten Holocaust or similar but that’s about the only time I’ve seen it referred to in much detail.

  9. [Toothy, you are a real idiot. It wasnt war. Japan invaded China. Climb back to your slimey hole and pick somebody your own size.]

    What do they call it when a country attacks and invades another country?

    Oh thats right. War.

    Anyways, this “past guilt” thing is rubbish. It’s like the “sorry” industry… why the hell should I be sorry just for being born White, isn’t that racist towards me?

  10. I never said don’t learn from the past.

    But people harping on about it all the time is annoying.

    Yes yes, WW2 was very bad but it was over 60 years ago. Bad stuff has happened in the past it is now time to move on.

  11. Bilbo, i have own sources. You or anybody dont have believe me. You can do your own research in Chinese sources, not western sources.

    Like I said according to the Japanese, they murdered any chinese, it was just war as somebody has just said.

  12. Yes yes, WW2 was very bad but it was over 60 years ago. Bad stuff has happened in the past it is now time to move on.

    I suppose that means you hold no grudges in relation to the evils of communism, the millions sent to die in the gulags in Russia by Stalin, or the millions who starved to death in Mao’s cultural revolution?

    What’s happened has happened and it’s now time to move on, am I right?

  13. Talking about racism…. Racist Stupid Americans with no idea on Australian Culture have demanded an Australian TV Advert be removed from our screens after it showed an Aussie cricket player sharing some greasey chicken with some West Indies fans.

    First we can’t dress up as the Jackson 5, now we can’t share chicken with black people. Can the Yanks PLEASE PLEASE keep out of our affairs, or at least buy a clue?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/06/kfc-advertisement-accused-of-racism

  14. Diogenes

    #884
    “Ron Where have I said that we we shouldn’t have an Ambassador to the Holy See”
    Lets look at what you actualy said , and NOT what you NOW falsely claim to hav said !

    Diogenes
    #848
    “The straw men are coming thick and fast from Ron and the Labor apologists.
    We already had an Ambassador to the Holy See before Tim Fischer but the post was shared with Ireland. Rudd made Fischer a resident Ambassador to the Holy See with no responsibility to Ireland.”

    You sniped at Rudd for his Ambasador CHANGE of FROM Vatican/Ireland TO Vatican only and a resident ambassador

    You were made to look diplomasy stupid because 69 other Countrys including th USA ALREADY hav a Vatican only and a resident ambassador !

    You still look just as diplomasy stupid , but also someone per #884 who is less than frank A normal Greens Hack approach

  15. “Bah, what about the Elamites and their invasion of Sumeria!”

    Had you read your histary , you would know they did hav a war crimes tribunal then

  16. Peter Young, I’m interested into your views on Islamic terrorism. Do you think random killing of civilians in suicide attacks is justifiable because of Western crimes against Islamic nations? Are there any steps to safeguard their citizens you think Western nations are justified in taking against the threat of Islamic terrorists?

  17. What about the Mongolians. they were pretty good and efficient. They killed not only the people, but also the chickens, the ducks, the goats, the cows, the goose, the cats and the dogs, but not horses. They loved the horsey.

  18. [First we can’t dress up as the Jackson 5, now we can’t share chicken with black people. Can the Yanks PLEASE PLEASE keep out of our affairs, or at least buy a clue?]

    Oh Crap. I agree with you on something. Let’s not do that again please.

  19. Sarah Hanson-Yong (must be a friend of PY)

    “IF Government officials are to be believed, Mr Kumar was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. The attack was “opportunistic” and it was not Mr Kumar’s race that made him vulnerable, but rather the fact that he inadvertently walked into harm’s way.”

    Hint hint , must be a racist murder well facts ar:

    “Police have not ruled out racism as a motive but say there is NO evidence to support this. “

    BUT
    V Srinivasan President of th Fed of Indian Associatons in Vic said “he’s holding a news conferense in India to say that last weekends murder was NOT a racist attack”

    “Gautam Gupta, secretary of the Federation of Indian Students of Australia, agreed it would be “premature and inappropriate to draw conclusions about the tragedy”.

    So Crean was entitled to say :
    Australia’s Acting Foreign Minister Simon Crean said there was “NO evidence” that Garg’s murder was racially motivated.

    Who do these Far left nerds always assume Australia is wrong & imply it must hav been racists

    Th Indian media do NOT complain when 40,000 Indians get murdered every year by Indians , but by golly just one gets murdered here , and we ar racist , Hypacrites

  20. [Finns – Manchuko and all that]

    Gus, the widely accepted, by Western estimate, the direct number of people killed by the Japanese during 1931-1945 occupation was about 30m.

    [From a Chinese perspective, the Japanese occupation of parts of China from 1931 to 1945 which occasioned the killings of 30 million Chinese, has been called a “Super Holocaust”.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Holocaust

    The Chinese also claimed that during this occupation of China by Japan between 1931-1945, there was also wars between the war lords, then the civil war between the KMT and CCP plus those died indirectly due the instability, chaos and famine. The estimate was about 40m. They blame that the Japanese for that. 30m + 40m = 70m. At least, i know how to count.

  21. Finns

    I never doubt your word or your arithmetic.

    I have read that a figure approaching 50 mil for the manchuko interegnum.

    The rape of nanking/nanjing was widely reported as propoganda by the chineses.

  22. Gus, the point that i was trying to make to Bilbo was that:

    1. Japan said not many, few hundred thousands plus some accidental deaths
    2. The West said 30m
    3. The Chinese claimed 70m.

    Who do you believe? You make your own call. Nothing is ever black or white when comes to history.

  23. the Japanese occupation of parts of China from 1931 to 1945 which occasioned the killings of 30 million Chinese, has been called a “Super Holocaust”.

    So Adams pro israeli side & there hollywood film makers telling about th “Holcaust” hav been pretending there was not a ‘super holocaust’

  24. th wests indiferense or apeasement (eg USA) over th Japanese invasion of manchuria leads t queston if how much Manchurian mineral riches asisted th building of th Japanese war machine , th very war machine that launched on USA ‘s pearl harbour

  25. [Who do you believe? You make your own call. Nothing is ever black or white when comes to history.]

    I think the best way is to learn what is spin and what is true history.

  26. BH
    [Hacks get to find out first how the booths have been going on polling day – before even Antony knows.]
    No need – Possum nails it for us all within a few moments of poll close every time. 🙂 eg US Potus election

  27. I think there’s a vague chance we’ll get a Morgan tomorrow. Last year they took one weekend off from their normal schedule at Christmas and were then back to business as usual. If they follow that pattern again, they will have been in the field over the weekend just past – which means they might produce a poll based on one weekend’s polling, as they sometimes do, or they might hold back to combine two weekends of polling for next Friday, as they do slightly more often.

  28. #977

    [ Do you think random killing of civilians in suicide attacks is justifiable because of Western crimes against Islamic nations?]

    They are the reasons for the attacks. The ‘terrorists’ would see themselves as freedom fighters, not terrorists. Their actions are justified by their god. Thus, the suicide attacks are entirely justifiable from the ‘terrorists’ perspective.

    [ Are there any steps to safeguard their citizens you think Western nations are justified in taking against the threat of Islamic terrorists? ]

    I think the Western nations justify in their own minds all the actions they take. Perhaps, they don’t rely as heavily on having god’s imprimatur for their actons, but I am sure it is also an underlying factor.

    With god vs god – the inevitable result is mayhem.

    Another reason why god is evil. 666

  29. Bit by bit

    Victorian Deputy Police Commissioner Kieran Walshe said in an interview broadcast on Channel 7 a few days ago that he did not “believe” past attacks on Indian students had been racially motivated hate crimes.

    He has now moved his stance according to the Australian newspaper which claims that on 7 January 2010 he ” acknowledged that some crimes against Indians living in Melbourne had been motivated by racism”.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/police-smeared-in-indian-newspaper-as-ku-klux-klan/story-e6frg6nf-1225817145020

    Meanwhile, the Australian High Commissioner to India likewise has moved from the hard line denial that any attacks were racially motivated (IMHO a ridiculous stance to have been adopted by the Police and other urgers).
    “The vast majority of cases have been examples of opportunistic urban crime,” Peter Varghese told reporters in New Delhi when asked about the attacks, which the Indian media has labelled racist.
    “In some cases, a small minority of cases, there would appear to be some racial motivation. And if that’s the case, obviously we would recognise it for what it is,” he added.

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/some-attacksindians-may-have-been-racist_434286.html

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