The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of Tony Abbott’s Liberal leadership covers the last two weekends of polling, and it fails to replicate the encouraging results for Abbott in Morgan’s two earlier small-sample phone polls. Labor’s primary vote is up two points on Malcolm Turnbull’s last poll to 49 per cent, while the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 58.5-41.5 to 59-41.
Festive preselection action:
• Former Davis Cup tennis player John Alexander has won the Liberal preselection for Bennelong, having earlier tried and failed in Bradfield. Despite predictions of a close contest, the Sydney Morning Herald reported the Left-backed Alexander had an easy first round win over local business executive Mark Chan, scoring 67 votes in the ballot of 120 preselectors. As the Herald tells it, “the right split and the hard right deserted Mr Chan”, although VexNews notes the seat is “not a centre of factional operations for either camp”. The also-rans were businessman Steve Foley and financial services director Melanie Matthewson.
• Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly has withdrawn his nomination for Labor preselection in the Perth northern suburbs federal seat of Cowan, after earlier being considered certain to get the gig. This comes in the wake of a Corruption and Crime Commission finding that Kelly had put himself at “risk” of misconduct through his relationship with Brian Burke. Burke presumably knew what he was doing when he subsequently endorsed Kelly, going on to say he had “sought my help on many occasions and I’ve always been available to assist him”. The West Australian reported the withdrawal was the product of a “mutual” decision reached after “a week of talks with Labor officials”, which included federal campaign committee chairman and Brand MP Gary Gray. Potential replacements named by The West are Dianne Guise and Judy Hughes, who respectively lost their local seats of Wanneroo and Kingsley at the state election last September. The ABC reports a decision is expected in mid-January.
• The Western Australian ALP has also confirmed Tim Hammond, Louise Durack and ECU history lecturer Bill Leadbetter as candidates for Swan, Stirling and Pearce.
• The NSW Liberals have selected incumbents Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Bill Heffernan to head their Senate ticket, reversing the order from 2004. The Coalition agreement reserves the third position for the Nationals – I am not aware of any suggestion their candidate will be anyone other than incumbent Fiona Nash. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Heffernan needed the backing of Tony Abbott to ward off challenges from David Miles, a public relations executive with Pfizer, and George Bilic, a Blacktown councillor.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes Left figurehead Anthony Albanese’s chutzpah in calling for the Macquarie preselection to be determined by rank-and-file party ballot, after the role he played in imposing numerous candidates elsewhere as a member of the party’s national executive. Albanese reportedly believes Left candidate Susan Templeman would win a local ballot, although the earlier mail was that the Right’s Adam Searle had the numbers and it was the Left who wanted national executive intervention.
• Final Liberal two-party margin from the Bradfield by-election: 14.8 per cent. From Higgins: 10.2 per cent. Respective turnouts were 81.51 per cent and 79.00 per cent, compared with 80.12 per cent at the Mayo by-election, 87.41 per cent in Lyne and 89.68 per cent in Gippsland. Question: if the results have been declared, why hasn’t the AEC published preference distributions?
• VexNews reports Saturday’s Liberal preselection for the Victorian state seat of Ripon was a clear win for the unsuccessful candidate from 2006, Vic Dunn, who my records tell me is “the local inspector at Maryborough”. Dunn reportedly scored 53 votes against 26 for Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert and preselection perennial Louise Staley and four for local winery owner John van Beveren. Joe Helper holds the seat for Labor on a maergin of 4.3 per cent.
• The Berwick Star reports that Lorraine Wreford, the newly elected mayor of Casey, refused to confirm or deny reports she lodged a nomination for Liberal preselection in the state seat of Mordialloc last Friday. Janice Munt holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 3.5 per cent.
• The Country Voice SA website reports that one of its regular contributors, former SA Nationals president Wilbur Klein, will be the party’s candidate for Flinders at the March state election. The seats was held by the party prior to 1993, when it was won by its now-retiring Liberal member Liz Penfold.
• On Tuesday, The West Australian provided further data from the 400-sample Westpoll survey discussed a few posts ago, this time on attitudes to an emissions trading scheme. Forty per cent wanted it adopted immediately, down from 46 per cent two months ago. However, there was also a fall in the number wanting the government to wait until other countries committed to targets, from 47 per cent to 43 per cent. The remainder “ favoured other options to cut emissions or did not know”.
• Paul Murray of The West Australian offers some interesting electoral history on the occasion of the passing of former Liberal-turned-independent state MP Ian Thompson:
Shortly after the State election in February 1977, allegations began to emerge from both sides of politics about dirty deeds in the seat of Kimberley. Liberal sitting member Alan Ridge beat Labor’s Ernie Bridge on preferences by just 93 votes. The Liberals were the first to strike, claiming Labor was manipulating Aboriginal voters, but the move backfired badly. A subsequent Court of Disputed Returns case turned up scathing evidence of a deliberate Liberal campaign to deny Aboriginals the vote using underhand tactics and the election result was declared void on November 7.
Returning officers in the Kimberley for years had allowed illiterate Aboriginals to use party how-to-vote cards as an indication of their voting intention. What became apparent later was that Labor had put hundreds of Aboriginal voters on the roll and generally mobilised the indigenous community. The Liberals flew a team of young lawyers up from Perth to act as scrutineers at polling booths, with a plan to stop illiterate voters. The Court government pressured the chief electoral officer to instruct returning officers in the Kimberley to challenge illiterate voters and not accept their how-to-vote cards.
The court case turned up a letter of thanks from Mr Ridge to a Liberal Party member, who stood as an independent, saying “a third name on the ballot paper created some confusion among the illiterate voters and there is no doubt in my mind that it played a major part in having me re-elected”. Mr Ridge’s letter said that unless the Electoral Act was changed to make it more difficult for illiterate Aboriginals to cast their votes, the Liberals would not be able to win the seat.
Two days after the court ordered a new election, premier Sir Charles introduced in the Legislative Assembly a Bill to do just that. How-to-vote cards could not be used, nor could an instruction of a vote for just one candidate. Labor went ballistic, saying no illiterate voter would meet the test.
What transpired over nine hours was one of the most bitter debates ever seen in the WA Parliament and the galvanising of a new breed of Labor head kickers – Mr Burke, Mal Bryce, Bob Pearce and Arthur Tonkin, who came to power six years later. On November 10, it became apparent that the government was in trouble when one of the four National Country Party members not in the coalition Cabinet, Hendy Cowan, said he opposed the Bill because it disenfranchised all illiterate voters. When it came to the vote, the four NCP members crossed the floor and the maverick Liberal member for Subiaco, Dr Tom Dadour, abstained. The numbers split 25-25.
From the Speaker’s chair, Ian Thompson calmly noted that the law said when a Court of Disputed Returns ordered a by-election it had to be held under the same conditions as the original poll. If the Government wanted to amend the Electoral Act, it should do so after the by-election.
“Therefore I give my casting vote with the ‘Noes’ and the Bill is defeated,” he said. Hansard unusually recorded applause.
Frank – #2549
I have said it before. You need to curb your impulsiveness and think before your fingers run amok on the keyboard.
Peter Young # 2532
Not as amazed as I am by your groundless inferences that (a) I implied Katter was not a loony-tune (b) I think he’s remotely rational, Matey! I said “It doesn’t sound like … Nor …” I can’t imaging even Katter at his farthest out advocating that individual motorists be allowed to make up their own minds about what speed is appropriate through any area, much less that particular stretch of highway – or, indeed, any!
BTW 1: Tim Fisher was almost killed near his own property (I’m fairly sure the other driver was) because the latter drove out of a concealed minor road, did not stop & check, and straight into him. BTW 2: One of the worse “Black Spots” on the highway we use frequently is an almost identical situation – concealed side road & failure of drivers on that road to stop.
Accusing someone of an interpretation not inherent in that person’s words says far more about the person making the false inference, than it does about the person accused of implying it. Making false inferences – aka jumping to conclusions (though I prefer the jumping to confusion[sic] version), commits a logical fallacy.
As always, I recommend The Fallacy Files as the Web’s easiest pathway to rationality.
OzPolTragic – 2552
I apologise.
I committed a sin which is regularly committed by readers, namely I only read your post #2518 and no others, before I commented.
I have read #2518 and see the only reference to Bob Katter in it was in this paragraph:
[ I doubt you’re a Liberal Party supporter – it’s BIG on Laura Norda, the Nats more so. Doesn’t sound like the ALP either. Nor Bob Katter or the other Fed & state Independent Members. That leaves Pauline H, the LoR, la Rouche, CEC, the DLP and other little RW splinter parties.]
Therefore I missed your post which said ” I can’t imaging even Katter at his farthest out advocating that individual motorists be allowed to make up their own minds about what speed is appropriate through”.
Thanks for the web reference. Greatly appreciated.
re : Road Rules
In regards to the assertion that it is unimaginable that any government/politician would advocate motorists making their own minds up about the appropriate speed limit it should be pointed out that in the Northern Territory that was the case. On major roads e.g. Alice Springs to Darwin that situation applied up until fairly recently. I understand that now a speed limit has been imposed for the first time. Prior, there were no specific speed restrictions.
The only restriction was that the speed not be dangerous. A person could be charged with driving at a speed dangerous. The driver would need to make up his own mind as to what was a “safe” speed. A policeman following him might not agree with that interpretation and charge him. Then it was up to the court to determine whether the speed was dangerous. It would take into accont all factors, including other traffic actually or expected to be on the road, cross -roads, condition of the surface, weather, condition of the vehicle etc. A speed of 50 kmh might be dangerous, whereas a speed of 150kmh might not be.
Speed limits are blanket rules which set a one size fits all solution. They also reduce the costs of administering and enforcing safety on the roads. Clearly there are economic consequences to the one size fits all solution.
Diogenes @ # 2465
You are most likely right about seat belts as I cant remember when they became compulsory.
The point being made if you took the trouble to look at the figures was that there has been a steady improvement in that death rate from motor vehicle accidents over the years.
2554
On 1/1/2007 the NT introduced open road speed limits of 110 km/h unless otherwise signed but with 130 km/h on the main highways (mainly the Stuart Highway). This replaced the system you describe but I am told that they also fined motorists for exceeding the speed classification of their tyres.
Peter Young. My point was not about revenge, compensation, etc, just the seeming inconsistency in penalties between fixed penalties for camera offences etc and offences where actual accidents and injuries occurred. It seems to me that the priorities are skewed. Stupidity that causes accidents/injuries are treated relatively leniently compared to behaviour that just might cause an accident. The lesson to be learnt by the current scheme of penalties is don’t get caught, not don’t cause accidents. I think some new thinking is required and was wondering what the PBers would think.
Gusface #2512
Scorps
Hollingworth was a own goal by Howie and quite a few GB’s that I knew then were definitely uncomfortable with both Hollingworth and Howie’s obsfuscation
And one which highlighted the problems with his tendency not to consult people guaranteed to know about an issue at a local level; in this widely publicised case, the Member for Groom, Ian MacFarlane.
Perhaps Howard thought a blue-ribbon seat like Groom would say “Yes & Amen” to anything he did. Not in this case! The anti-Hollingsworth campaign (may have been a factor in the capture by the ALP of the relevant state seat a few months before Hollingsworth’s appointment) – had already running red hot before the announcement – and reached white hot within hours.
(BTW: a similar & very embarrassing CofE case – which would later received wide MSM coverage – was festering at a school in an electorate whose MHR at the time was one K Rudd).
What a waste. Just give money or gift vouchers. I also heard on BBC the other day that people value the “gift” 20% less than if they have bought the “gift” themselves.
[Dec 26, 2009 – Aussies say ‘no’ to 20m gifts – SYDNEY – HOW many unwanted gifts did you get under the Christmas tree? If you’re Australian, the number is likely to be more than one, amounting to a nationwide total of 20 million ‘useless’ presents, according to a survey.
The survey, commissioned by online marketplace eBay, found that although Australians spent A$8.5 billion (S$10.2 billion) buying gifts this Christmas, at least A$1 billion worth of these presents will either be left to gather dust in a cupboard, binned, regifted, exchanged or sold.
Examples of unwanted gifts ranged from underwear, socks, bath products and inappropriately sexual items to a tandoori spice rub for chicken given to a vegetarian and a dog bowl for a dogless recipient, a brick and cellulite cream, an eBay statement said.
The eBay survey of more than 1,200 people also found that more women than men received unwanted gifts this year, while youth aged between 18 and 24 years got the most unwanted presents, which they were likely to throw out or hide away.
An earlier survey showed that more than 825,000 gifts will go straight into the garbage bin in Australia this Christmas because their recipients just hated them.
With Australia’s economy still battling to shake off the effects of the global financial crisis, more than a third of Australians had planned to spend less on Christmas gifts this year, compared with the previous year, according to a recent survey by the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank. — REUTERS]
2559
On the French news on SBS this morning (broadcast in France last night) they said that 13 million presents would be resold on the internet by the end of January.
[An earlier survey showed that more than 825,000 gifts will go straight into the garbage bin in Australia this Christmas because their recipients just hated them.]
What’s wrong with people? Too lazy to take a trip to Vinnies or the Salvos and donate their unwanted gifts to someone who might appreciate them?
Amigo Vera, any luck with the horsey?
Vera #2561
Do’t forget, there’s always the ebay option!
Finns
Started off with couple of early wins but then had a losing streak 😛 Bummer I’ll lose about $10 on the day (I’m a big punter, $1 bets that’s me 😀 )
How did your painting go? Did you see the photo of you painting i left earlier 😉
OzPol
Yep, Ebay, good idea, make a few $$$! They are too stupid for that, just throw it in the garbage instead.
[Too lazy to take a trip to Vinnies or the Salvos and donate their unwanted gifts to someone who might appreciate them]
Charities don’t take all goods Vera.
They don’t take electrical goods in case someone gets zapped, which is a pity as they could get an electrician to check the goods beforehand and gets heaps more.
I’ve thrown out microwaves, jugs, toasters, washing machines, fridges and TVs when rellies have bit the dust or moved to old peoples home. Charities won’t take them, advertised them for a pittance or free no takers, so off to the tip.
Moved an oldie this year and St Vinnies took all the household furniture except electrical, all electrical to tip. Most furniture from 60s and 70s, bloke said antique buyers would probably snap it up.
Finns @ 2559
I work the refunds counter down at Kmart, and I can tell you tomorrow will be our busiest day of the year (not open today). Normally we have 1-2 staff in there, 5-6 tomorrow.
[How did your painting go? Did you see the photo of you painting i left earlier ]
Vera, i finished what i had to do to keep peace in the household. No more, no less.
There are better things to do eg: bloggin on PB, cooking, eating, walking, playing the guitars, looking for songs on the net, tappin, making money, and most of all staying healthy. She loves you, yeah, yeah, yeah …………….
Yes, i saw that photo. 👿
castle
Our Salvos sell electrical stuff, TVs, dvd/video players, heaters, lamps, kitchen appliances etc.
They have the TVs all lined up turned on so you know the are working but I think you take your chances with the other stuff. Or you can take them out the back and plug them in to check I think.
2566
Closed Boxing Day, open Sunday. Is that in SA?
DaveM, Xmas gift giving has to be one of the most inefficient transaction. A waste of precious money, time, effort and appreciation.
[Gary Bruce
Posted Saturday, December 26, 2009 at 10:24 am | Permalink
In Vic the fatalities have fallen since we’ve had speed cameras. I’ve noticed a marked difference in people’s driving habits. The message doesn’t get through to everyone, as we’ve seen here but it gets through to most.]
The Victorian road fatalities in the 1970 where over 1000, the introduction of seat belts and the improved design of cars saw it fall to about 700 in 1988. In that year the Victorian speed cameras where introduced along with a program to install roundabouts on every street corner ( a great success at reducing minor crashes). Initially revenues were substantial. Over time the revenue decreased along with the road toll. By 1992 the toll was down to just over 400 and the percentage of vehicles over the the speed limit was down to 5%.
What have we seen since 1992. A reduction in speed limits, an increase in signage designed to confuse ( 40km on school days between this time and that time, limits that go up and down like a yoo yoo) and no reduction in fatalities.
Since 1992 the claim for policy change has been a further reduction in the road toll. That is not happening. The policy consequence has been the maintenance of revenue.
Either those driving the policy changes have failed ( that does happen) as fatalities have not dropped, or we have been miss led and the aim was to maintain the revenue, in which case the policy has succeed.
Which is it?
[Settle down Gary, you obviously don’t get around, do you?
The majority of speed cameras are positioned in a close proximity of where the speed limit is suddenly reduced. And even, down hill!
Only the very most gullible would believe that all or most speed cameras are installed for road safety purposes only.]
Weak as Centre.
2571 – Reference?
And I should add; I suspect confusing signage increases road risk, as time is spent trying to deal with the trivia instead of dealing with other objects.
Ummm
To those having a go at road laws and speeds.
1.the amount of cars has increased on the roads and also their top speeds
2.a lot of fatalities are innocent victims.
3. etc
SO GIVE YOURSELVES AN UPPERCUT, UPPERCUT NEEDERS
fredn,
Victoria’s road toll this year will be around 300 a 25% reduction since 1992.
The research says most trauma is caused by speed, alcohol and inexperienced drivers.
Speed has been addressed by reducing speed limits to 50kph in residential areas, hoon driving laws and more cameras. Laws around alcohol consumption has been tightened as loop holes have been eliminated. The younger driver problem has been addressed by revamping the P Plate driver laws.
To say that policy has not succeeded can only be answered by against what standard.
Uppercut ?
Is that the more expensive cuts of meat? 😆
[Ummm
To those having a go at road laws and speeds.
1.the amount of cars has increased on the roads and also their top speeds
2.a lot of fatalities are innocent victims.
3. etc
SO GIVE YOURSELVES AN UPPERCUT, UPPERCUT NEEDERS]
Notice the people opposed to Traffic Laws also happen to be Neo Anti Filterite Folk as well 🙂
Just sayin’
[Is that the more expensive cuts of meat?]
Who rattled your cage?
571
Victoria are looking at the possibility a road toll of under 300 for the 2009 calendar year.
http://www.tacsafety.com.au/jsp/statistics/roadtollcurrent.do?areaID=12&tierID=1&navID=1
http://www.tacsafety.com.au/jsp/statistics/roadtollannual.do?areaID=12&tierID=1&navID=17
There is also serious injuries to consider.
http://www.tacsafety.com.au/jsp/statistics/seriousinjuriesannual.do?areaID=12&tierID=1&navID=24
re Speed limits
I was told this a few years back by a guy who was an expert in road accident analysis:
The speed limits e.g. around corners etc and on sections of road were not an indicia of safety. Rather those setting speed limits set them at the very highest safety level (for obvious reasons). In his opinion there was quite an upward movement in that limit before the unsafe mark was reached e.g. signposted 60kmh might safely be travelled on at 80kph, depending on conditions etc. I assum he knew what he was talking about.
Just throwing that in the mix.
[Gary Bruce
Posted Saturday, December 26, 2009 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
2571 – Reference?]
Till 1992 do a google search for: “Victoria’s speed camera program Bourne”
The URL is too long to post.
National figures recent years:
http://www.minister.infrastructure.gov.au/aa/releases/2008/august/aa112_2008.htm
Victoria:
2009: 415 to date
2008: 304
2007: 333
Nice resource
http://www.monash.edu.au/muarc/reports/muarc102.html
Regards
It’s easy fred.
http://www.monash.edu.au/pubs/monmag/issue15-2005/opinion/toll-graph.html
[An analysis has shown that in addition to a downturn in the economy, the two factors which have contributed most to the reduction in road deaths and injuries in Victoria were:
– increased RBT using high visibility “booze buses”, supported by massive publicity;
– progressive introduction of 54 new speed cameras, supported by publicity.]
Thanks for the reference fred.
[I was told this a few years back by a guy who was an expert in road accident analysis:]
i was told once that Dracula was claiming to be a blood expert 👿
Sorry got the NSW and Vic road toll figure mixed up for 2009; I can’t find our current figure.
This map gives location for Vic crashes:
http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?document_id=17330
It would seem banning driving in Melbourne would go a long way to reducing the toll.
Note there has been no fatalities this year on the road between Mildura and Renmark ( now at 120 km hour)
castle #2565
Trash & treasure markets! A lot of community groups have stalls & often an electrician “friend of a friend” who’ll do the testing free – we have a electrician friend who checks electric ones for some charities. Friends just gave us a near new coffee maker to replace the aged dying! 50cents! Cheez! And our 1980s “ice cave” crystal bowl to them was all of $2! Most neighbourhoods have at least one market trader around.
Swap Marts, esp ones connected with vehicles (rust buckets anonymous!) Not as regular & often in small towns & rural cities. Friend made $2,000+ last year out of family junk! You’d be surprised what sells! If, eg, it’s a totally daggy old rusted tin/ tools etc with some indication of product etc – there’s a BIG market! Aged half-full baking powder/ anti-acid tin … that sort of thing.
In some parts of Australia, Tender Centres (map of centres & info @ http://www.tender.net.au) are wonderful buy/sell places. And daggy old furniture sells well to hobby restorers – even 70s plastic pipe garden furniture. Never underestimate how many collectors & restorers are out there! (If you’ve seen the odd ABC “THe Collectors” show, you’ll understand!
Some more “down at heel” nursing homes are very grateful for vases, cushions, 1960s “Danish Modern” style lounge chairs, small tables for residents to place tea, magazine etc and similar useful furniture.
Even dumps run “The Dump Shop” type of places. If you must dump, see if they’re on the phone.
Wrong again the stretch between mildura and renmark is at 100
And again 110km an hour ( need to keep me off the roads)
The Finnigans- #2585
Unless you were told that by Dracula himself, your situation is vastly different to the one presented by me.
PY, is that your fang in my neck?
Finns,
PY talking to his imaginary friends again.
2588 & 2589
The Victorian section would be 100km/h as it is a non-built up area-non-freeway road and the South Australian section 110km/h. These are the default non-built up areas speed limit in these states.
Frank
I have lost too many firends, starting with a fellow student who was killed by a drunk driver just as she was being driven to attend our Yr 12 formal.
I have counted 12 people that i have known that were killed on the roads,not thru their fault,but by another driver.
GG – #2592
I have no friends, real or imaginery. I was talking to the person who was giving evidence to an inquiry.
[The speed limits e.g. around corners etc and on sections of road were not an indicia of safety. Rather those setting speed limits set them at the very highest safety level (for obvious reasons). In his opinion there was quite an upward movement in that limit before the unsafe mark was reached e.g. signposted 60kmh might safely be travelled on at 80kph, depending on conditions etc.]
PY, I agree with this based on my experience driving on NSW roads. On the other hand, I have found that where advisory cornering speed signs are used in France, the safety margin is much less (if you happen to go there).
Gary Bruce
You will get no argument from me that speed cameras and booze buses reduced the read toll. The problem is the actions of the government after they had done there job (about 1992). We have now seen several years of tricky dicky playing with the speed limits. It really is getting quite tiresome; and I suspect increasingly dangerous.
#2595
Correction – I do one rea friend – Kristina.
2428
fredn
I’m sure that Tully exists. But I don’t believe ‘the truth hurts’. He is misnamed, having little or nothing to do with truth, but instead is a fiction looking for a fight.
[ Tom the first and best
Posted Saturday, December 26, 2009 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
2588 & 2589
The Victorian section would be 100km/h as it is a non-built up area-non-freeway road and the South Australian section 110km/h. These are the default non-built up areas speed limit in these states.]
Nope I drove it the other day; it surprised me; but the open Victorian section is now 110 till Mildura city limits.