Morgan: 59-41

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of Tony Abbott’s Liberal leadership covers the last two weekends of polling, and it fails to replicate the encouraging results for Abbott in Morgan’s two earlier small-sample phone polls. Labor’s primary vote is up two points on Malcolm Turnbull’s last poll to 49 per cent, while the Coalition is up 0.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 58.5-41.5 to 59-41.

Festive preselection action:

• Former Davis Cup tennis player John Alexander has won the Liberal preselection for Bennelong, having earlier tried and failed in Bradfield. Despite predictions of a close contest, the Sydney Morning Herald reported the Left-backed Alexander had an easy first round win over local business executive Mark Chan, scoring 67 votes in the ballot of 120 preselectors. As the Herald tells it, “the right split and the hard right deserted Mr Chan”, although VexNews notes the seat is “not a centre of factional operations for either camp”. The also-rans were businessman Steve Foley and financial services director Melanie Matthewson.

• Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly has withdrawn his nomination for Labor preselection in the Perth northern suburbs federal seat of Cowan, after earlier being considered certain to get the gig. This comes in the wake of a Corruption and Crime Commission finding that Kelly had put himself at “risk” of misconduct through his relationship with Brian Burke. Burke presumably knew what he was doing when he subsequently endorsed Kelly, going on to say he had “sought my help on many occasions and I’ve always been available to assist him”. The West Australian reported the withdrawal was the product of a “mutual” decision reached after “a week of talks with Labor officials”, which included federal campaign committee chairman and Brand MP Gary Gray. Potential replacements named by The West are Dianne Guise and Judy Hughes, who respectively lost their local seats of Wanneroo and Kingsley at the state election last September. The ABC reports a decision is expected in mid-January.

• The Western Australian ALP has also confirmed Tim Hammond, Louise Durack and ECU history lecturer Bill Leadbetter as candidates for Swan, Stirling and Pearce.

• The NSW Liberals have selected incumbents Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Bill Heffernan to head their Senate ticket, reversing the order from 2004. The Coalition agreement reserves the third position for the Nationals – I am not aware of any suggestion their candidate will be anyone other than incumbent Fiona Nash. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Heffernan needed the backing of Tony Abbott to ward off challenges from David Miles, a public relations executive with Pfizer, and George Bilic, a Blacktown councillor.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald notes Left figurehead Anthony Albanese’s chutzpah in calling for the Macquarie preselection to be determined by rank-and-file party ballot, after the role he played in imposing numerous candidates elsewhere as a member of the party’s national executive. Albanese reportedly believes Left candidate Susan Templeman would win a local ballot, although the earlier mail was that the Right’s Adam Searle had the numbers and it was the Left who wanted national executive intervention.

• Final Liberal two-party margin from the Bradfield by-election: 14.8 per cent. From Higgins: 10.2 per cent. Respective turnouts were 81.51 per cent and 79.00 per cent, compared with 80.12 per cent at the Mayo by-election, 87.41 per cent in Lyne and 89.68 per cent in Gippsland. Question: if the results have been declared, why hasn’t the AEC published preference distributions?

• VexNews reports Saturday’s Liberal preselection for the Victorian state seat of Ripon was a clear win for the unsuccessful candidate from 2006, Vic Dunn, who my records tell me is “the local inspector at Maryborough”. Dunn reportedly scored 53 votes against 26 for Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert and preselection perennial Louise Staley and four for local winery owner John van Beveren. Joe Helper holds the seat for Labor on a maergin of 4.3 per cent.

• The Berwick Star reports that Lorraine Wreford, the newly elected mayor of Casey, refused to confirm or deny reports she lodged a nomination for Liberal preselection in the state seat of Mordialloc last Friday. Janice Munt holds the seat for Labor on a margin of 3.5 per cent.

• The Country Voice SA website reports that one of its regular contributors, former SA Nationals president Wilbur Klein, will be the party’s candidate for Flinders at the March state election. The seats was held by the party prior to 1993, when it was won by its now-retiring Liberal member Liz Penfold.

• On Tuesday, The West Australian provided further data from the 400-sample Westpoll survey discussed a few posts ago, this time on attitudes to an emissions trading scheme. Forty per cent wanted it adopted immediately, down from 46 per cent two months ago. However, there was also a fall in the number wanting the government to wait until other countries committed to targets, from 47 per cent to 43 per cent. The remainder “ favoured other options to cut emissions or did not know”.

• Paul Murray of The West Australian offers some interesting electoral history on the occasion of the passing of former Liberal-turned-independent state MP Ian Thompson:

Shortly after the State election in February 1977, allegations began to emerge from both sides of politics about dirty deeds in the seat of Kimberley. Liberal sitting member Alan Ridge beat Labor’s Ernie Bridge on preferences by just 93 votes. The Liberals were the first to strike, claiming Labor was manipulating Aboriginal voters, but the move backfired badly. A subsequent Court of Disputed Returns case turned up scathing evidence of a deliberate Liberal campaign to deny Aboriginals the vote using underhand tactics and the election result was declared void on November 7.

Returning officers in the Kimberley for years had allowed illiterate Aboriginals to use party how-to-vote cards as an indication of their voting intention. What became apparent later was that Labor had put hundreds of Aboriginal voters on the roll and generally mobilised the indigenous community. The Liberals flew a team of young lawyers up from Perth to act as scrutineers at polling booths, with a plan to stop illiterate voters. The Court government pressured the chief electoral officer to instruct returning officers in the Kimberley to challenge illiterate voters and not accept their how-to-vote cards.

The court case turned up a letter of thanks from Mr Ridge to a Liberal Party member, who stood as an independent, saying “a third name on the ballot paper created some confusion among the illiterate voters and there is no doubt in my mind that it played a major part in having me re-elected”. Mr Ridge’s letter said that unless the Electoral Act was changed to make it more difficult for illiterate Aboriginals to cast their votes, the Liberals would not be able to win the seat.

Two days after the court ordered a new election, premier Sir Charles introduced in the Legislative Assembly a Bill to do just that. How-to-vote cards could not be used, nor could an instruction of a vote for just one candidate. Labor went ballistic, saying no illiterate voter would meet the test.

What transpired over nine hours was one of the most bitter debates ever seen in the WA Parliament and the galvanising of a new breed of Labor head kickers – Mr Burke, Mal Bryce, Bob Pearce and Arthur Tonkin, who came to power six years later. On November 10, it became apparent that the government was in trouble when one of the four National Country Party members not in the coalition Cabinet, Hendy Cowan, said he opposed the Bill because it disenfranchised all illiterate voters. When it came to the vote, the four NCP members crossed the floor and the maverick Liberal member for Subiaco, Dr Tom Dadour, abstained. The numbers split 25-25.

From the Speaker’s chair, Ian Thompson calmly noted that the law said when a Court of Disputed Returns ordered a by-election it had to be held under the same conditions as the original poll. If the Government wanted to amend the Electoral Act, it should do so after the by-election.

“Therefore I give my casting vote with the ‘Noes’ and the Bill is defeated,” he said. Hansard unusually recorded applause.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,931 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

Comments Page 46 of 59
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  1. [Parramatta Centrist
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 4:28 pm | Permalink
    …
    (and yes, I’ve seen managers raise spurious safety issues too).
    …]

    Yes unfortunately it’s a case of “two can play this game”.

    As a manager it is very hard to deal with a “safety issue”. You have to take great care to document that the person raising the issue for spurious reasons is full of shit. Claiming safety reason puts the other party at the same disadvantage.

  3. [Just had my ISP (telstra) inform that they could not find blogs.crikey-com.au. Got placed in the banned list for a few seconds did we]

    No, I’m with Bigpond and I can access it fine – might be an DNS issue.

  4. As ever, the trend depends on what starting point you pick. Fredn chooses to start at 1998, and if you look at the chart it’s not hard to see why he’d do this. Funnily enough, 1998 was IIRC a year of all-time high temperatures because of an El Nino event, such that if one chooses that as one’s starting point one can conclude the trend in global temperatures is downward. Nevertheless, Peter Young initially did not nominate a time-scale for his trend, so Fredn’s comment at #2248 is legitimate as a response to PY’s comment at #2126. Later though PY nominated “several decades”, which is unarguably correct. Labor’s vote at the 2007 election, which some commenters like to tell me was a landslide, was barely higher than Whitlam got in 1975, and wouldn’t have won Labor any election prior to 1990.

  7. I’m off to an off-line Christmas.

    Stay safe on the roads. A special “Best Wishes. Hope all goes well. Stay safe” to those in fire and flood zones. 🙂

    Merry Christmas all! and a special one to you, William! 🙂

    (For the trooly tragic; only 8 more sleeps until election year) 😀

  9. [TheTaipanhunter (46 minutes ago) – TA,Finn.Signed up PB Then? got lost.Check my Profile for Addy.Cheers.R]

    Bilbo, got a new customer for you.

    Welcome TaipanHunter – it’s time someone who knows where the snakes are, so we jokers here at PB dont step on them too often. 😆 😀 😎

    Off to pre Christmas dinner of Aromatic Prawns, Chilly Crabs and Hainan Chicken Rice.

    See you later, alligator.

  12. That 1949 onwards voting trends shows lalbor expectently going down in th DLP split years from 1955 but “other” staying th same and not going up , and instead th Libs going up , expected irrevse to that

    labors primary drop from 1987 ar still mosdtly “labor” voters , but who give there ist prefs to Democrats and later Greens th Nats trend down seems like a siucide end in time for thems

    “vera #2213
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    Adam seems gone as well

    Ron
    He’s just changed his name to Psephos and is having a trip to Israel over Christmas
    I’m a good lookun Hack if that helps”

    Glad he’ll reurn , so i can do him in regularly gone to israel ? well couldn’t go to West Bank there’s 100’s of Israeli armed checkpoints and its divided up into 100’s of enclaves apartheid style , with about 400,000 ILLEGAL israeli occupiers cum settlars on guess 40% of West Bank & guess 2.5 milion palestiniensin other approx 60% but separated by tons of barriers & chekpoints

    Looks don’t matter, it’s your style I like 😉
    love ya

    “2214
    Thomas Paine
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    The blog doesn’t handle chinese characters.”

    Why not ? it handles my ligos dialects

    #
    ” 2215
    The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    Amigo Ron, we have moved beyond hacks. we are now Spartacus”

    so we ar th infamous “300 hundred ” but w/out the noughts , plus one th wonderful

  15. fredn @2224,

    The Libs are indeed in a dilemma as a management structure designed in the 1940s creaks and splutters. The weak centre and strong local role in the Liberal party keeps them in tune with their grass roots membership. But, it does not cope with an electorate that does not want to join anything. Consequently, the Libs have the problem that at the next election they’ll lose 10 or 15 younger members like Pyne, Dutton yet preserve in place old fogeys like Bishop, Ruddock, Tuckey and Schultz.

    Labor have coped with the social changes by injecting celebrity candidates into the Parliament. In Victoria we’ve had Mary Delahunty and Justin Madden. Federally, Labor has had Garret, McKew, Kelly and Dreyfuss. There have been a couple of cock ups like Cheryl Kernot but by and large the experiment has been a success for Labor.

    I’ll conceed that the Libs have done well to get Paul Fletcher in to Parliament and Victoria seems to have pre selected a batch of precocious newbies. But, it is slim pickings elsewhere.

    So the challenge for the Libs and observers is to not so much lament that things have changed, but to do something about it.

    I’m not overly concerned about extremist takeovers of our system if Kevin Rudd is the beneficiary of the changes made within Labor to date.

  16. Ron

    There is very little doubt in my mind that Psephos fled to Israel for re-education as he heard on the grape-vine that you were coming back.

    He has always been threatened by your superior knowledge and masterful rhetoric and is running scared. 😉

  17. quite a factual post # 2266 you made there Diogenes

    It seems that my philosofhy of following Phoenixberg suggeston of comunity suport for blogers “needing help” , by me helping you understand cc yesterday & giving you so much greeenuine TLC , has workrd wonders overnite , wonders indeeds

    if i work at it , you could ‘possibly’ be rehabilitated , well maybe anyways , there are already 8 Wonders of th World as we speak

  21. Ron

    [if i work at it , you could ‘possibly’ be rehabilitated]

    Finns puts me under the Knowledge Tree when I need to reflect on my wRONgful path, and GG gives me a short, sharp slap to nurture me but it hasn’t been enough. I hope that with your guidance that I can return to straight and narrow.

  22. Diogs,

    With all your wRongfulness, you are a huge loss to the Catholic Church congregation. Slaps are temporary, but the cure for your heart is a hug from your children and a kiss from your wife.

    I recommend you do both regularly.

  23. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 5:43 pm | Permalink
    ….
    I’m not overly concerned about extremist takeovers of our system if Kevin Rudd is the beneficiary of the changes made within Labor to date.]

    For some reason, since Whitlam, federal labor seems to have maintained a desire to win. The Liberals seems to have lost that, and have been reduced to navel gazing.

    I think if your honest about Kevin, he is no Whitlam and no Keating. Perhaps things will change when all the reports are in, we will see.

  24. [For some reason, since Whitlam, federal labor seems to have maintained a desire to win.]

    The Events of 1975, plus the split earlier sure helped the ALP in that regard, the Libs on the other hand have a “Born to Rule” Mentality and think victory is automatic.

  25. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

    For some reason, since Whitlam, federal labor seems to have maintained a desire to win.

    The Events of 1975, plus the split earlier sure helped the ALP in that regard, the Libs on the other hand have a “Born to Rule” Mentality and think victory is automatic.]

    So Labor did maintain the rage?

  27. I also went away and did some research. All figures below are in percentages. I put the Nationals into ‘Other’.

    A primary vote is the “number one” vote cast by an elector in an Australian ballot. It is the best guide to the actual level of support for a political party or candidate, as distinct from the support measured by the two-party-preferred vote.

    Year ALP LIB OTHER
    1954 50.0 38.6 11.4
    1955 44.6 39.7 15.7
    1958 42.8 37.2 20.0
    1961 47.9 33.6 18.5
    1963 45.5 37.1 17.4
    1966 40.0 40.1 19.9
    1969 47.0 34.8 18.2
    1972 49.6 28.1 22.3
    1974 49.3 34.9 15.8
    1975 42.8 41.8 15.4
    1977 39.6 38.1 22.3
    1980 45.1 37.4 17.5
    1983 49.5 34.4 16.1
    1984 47.5 34.3 18.2
    1987 45.8 34.3 19.9
    1990 39.4 34.8 25.8
    1993 44.92 37.1 17.98
    1996 38.75 39.0 22.25
    1998 40.1 34.2 25.7
    2001 37.08 37.84 25.08
    2004 37.64 40.47 21.89
    2007 36.28 43.38 20.34

  29. Fredn,

    Like you say, until he finishes his tenure, then his comparative achievements are hard to judge. But, his reaction to the GFC was a classic Labor way of addressing the problem. Focus on protecting families by keeping unemployment down, investment in infrastructure in the community and monetary stimulus at the right time to keep retail spending up while business was not investing.

    Perhaps he’s had it easier because the Liberals have focussed on pursuing non existent scandals, stunts and questioning his personality. Been a pretty dry well for all the frenzied activity expended.

    Only thing for sure is that the next Liberal PM will not be a clone of John Howard. Why are the Libs pursuing this dream.

  30. From my perspective, it is disingenuous not to include the Nationals vote as a coalition vote. The Libs and Nats/CP had agreements not to contest in many seats, so for the purpose of this sort of analysis it’s bizarre to record them as independant of each other.

  36. Pegasus@2283:

    [I assure you I was not being disingenuous. I just found it easier to tabulate results that way from the source I used; it was less work. I just took a literal interpretation of minor and major party.

    http://www.australianpolitics.com/elections/primary/primary-votes-house.shtml%5D

    That puts a totally different perspective on the whole question.

    Seems to me that you have to start measuring from the time the DLP disappeared.

    That means starting at 1980, when the Dems were at 6.6 and ‘others’ at 2.0.

    Which means that the whole ‘major parties have been losing primary votes over decades’ becomes much harder to justify.

    You’d need Poss to make any reasonable conclusions, methinks.

    Furry one, where are you?

  37. Just back from walking Kristina to the doggy park. Had an interesting discussion with a South African born ethnic Indian about life in South Africa in the period 1950-1975. Now got to read the posts I’ve missed since I went out to see if there is anything interesting.

  40. Gusface #2289

    I’m wondering whether you are trying to take the p. out of Kristina. Ask Eric Roozendaal about her. He spoke with me outside the NSW Parliament about her. When I explained the genesis of her name, a pained smirk spread across his face. I am sure he would recall the incident.

  42. PY@2290:

    [He spoke with me outside the NSW Parliament about her. When I explained the genesis of her name, a pained smirk spread across his face. I am sure he would recall the incident.]

    From http://www.surnamedb.com/surname.aspx?name=Kenealy

    [Recorded in several spellings including Kennally, Keneally, Kenealy, Kennelly, Kinneally, Quinnelly, and others , this is a famous Irish surname. It derives from the pre 10th century Gaelic O’ Cinnfhaelidh, meaning ‘The male descendant of the Wolf (or Wolfs head)’ and they originate from the lands known as the barony of Connello in County Limerick. The majority of Irish surnames of true Gaelic origin are forms of patronymic, and usually refer to some warlike appearance of the original chief, and intended to strike fear into the opposition. This is a good example of the genre. Accordings to the late Edward MacLysaght who wrote the definitive histories of the Irish clans, the name is recorded in the Annals of the Four Masters from the 12th century, which is the effective commencement date of surnames as we know them today. It seems however that the clan fell foul of the Fitzgeralds, and were dispersed from their original lands although not very far as even today they are most numerous in the province of Munster between Limerick and Waterford. It is said that a Lieutenant O’Kinneally was an officer in King James Regiment of Foot at the battle of the Boyne in 1690, and he may have been the same person who later joined the Itrish Brigade of the King of France. Edmund Kenealy (1818 – 1880) was a Cork barrister and a prominent public figure in both England and Ireland. ]

  43. Hi all!
    I just wanted to wish everyone all the best for Christmas – drive safely, don’t drink & drive, think of those less fortunate than you this year etc.
    Thanks to William for providing us with this board and a great forum for discussion of political & psephological issues! I look forward to more of it in 2010, “The Year Of Election”.
    Cheers,
    EVAN

  44. And, how nice to see Rudd on the news tonight, helping out at the hospital!
    A marked contrast to Abbott flogging his book yesterday – is the Mad Monk visiting sick kids this Christmas?

  45. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, December 24, 2009 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    From my perspective, it is disingenuous not to include the Nationals vote as a coalition vote. ]

    But the nationals are a minor party. The argument is over declining support for the two majors.

    Pegasus figures are petty amazing, they show how critical preferences are to modern labor; the attacking of the greens by labor hacks might be a bit self defeating.

  47. 2295

    At a Commonwealth level, the Libs and Nats are the same party for the purpose of forming government which is a major factor in the two party system as well as the aforementioned non-competition and joint ticket agreements, therefore should be counted as part of the Coalition for the purposes of a two major party comparison.

  48. 2296

    The ALP has had plenty of elections where they have done better than 1954 because they have won elections other than 1983. There were also uncontested rural seats in 1954 distorting the vote totals.

  49. Merry Xmas to all (even Troothy, trapped as he is in the Q-Zone). Safe driving. Not too much booze.

    It’d be nice if we all came back in one piece for the demolition of Abbott next year.

  50. [Merry Xmas to all (even Troothy, trapped as he is in the Q-Zone). Safe driving. Not too much booze. ]

    Christmas like Easter is one of the safest times of the year to drive, the state governments in conjunction with the media hype up massive fear campaigns every year so they can do revenue raising through the use of speed camera blitzes.

    Wheels magazine even proved the fact by showing it was more dangerous to drive on a normal non-holiday weekend than it was during the Christmas holidays. Ho Ho Ho to revenue raising.

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