Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
Aristotle @ 59
Greiners advice to Joe was spot on but I bet stupid Joe will take Howard’s advice over Greiners.
Having said that, time is getting on, we are halfway through Monday and he is still laying low.
Come on Jelly Belly stiffen up and make a decision 👿
I must admit Turnbull’s handling of this has actually increased my opinion of him somewhat.
enjaybee #117 And How!
Perhaps information on CC information like this (I mentioned yesterday; but this you won’t have to chase
Tesco becomes UK’s first retailer to display carbon footprint on milk
And the UK is considered to be behind many Euro states, esp members of the old EEC.
Have you seen any Oz MSM campaign on “Carbon Footprint” labelling? UK Info on this scheme – and it goes waaaay beyond dairy and includes “carbon miles/kilometers” – has been around at least since 2007 (before the election was called). Do you understand what it entails? Do you think any rural producer Deniers have a clue what its impact on Oz exports will be?
BTW, it will eventually apply to all exports – livestock, farm-produce, food processing, manufacturing (will include CF on farm production processed into wool, leather, cotton etc goods), minerals, etc.
How far from “leading the world” are we really?
After the the barbs have injected their venom dario, then he can join the ALP- save it for when the election is anounced would be just fantastic. Move the entire focus of anything to just this- former leader changes parties and says ” they are a fractured bunch of people that I can no longer work with or believe in”
I wouldn’t want Turnbull in the ALP. He is a a loose cannon and much better suited to the Liberal party.
Dario # 131
That’s Newspeak, Dario! Trust the current Libs to be stuck in 1984!
Well the chaplain my school appointed was a fundamentalist zealot without any counselling skills at at all, who once appointed promptly started to attempt to undermine the schools science teachers, offer inappropriate advice to students with real problems and revealed himself to be inimical to those who did not share his narrow world view.
By its very nature, faith committment to one of the thousands of belief groups that currently exist in our society, a school chaplaincy is completely inappropriate for secular schools where learning, as opposed to faith, should be the basis of education.
For an example of that to which I refer to check this out and ask yourself is this an appropriate group or person to be given access to secular students in public schools?
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2634
Fred Nile has sent out a strange survey to voters in Bradfield, asking them whether they support or oppose a series of statements, many strongly weighted towards Nile’s positions. These include:
•“Jesus Christ is the Son of God”
•“We should do what the Greenies want and let any foreigner in”
•“Australia needs a ten-year moratorium on Muslim immigration, which is the official policy of the Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)”
•“The Federal Government should have the power to deport any Muslim”
[Now it is possible that this a hoax, I certainly hope so]
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, November 30, 2009 at 10:44 am | Permalink
Christopher Pyne:
I don’t believe we should be changing the leader or the policy (to pass the CPRS)]
Geez! The poodle has become a doberman! Onya Christopher, one of the few with guts enough to come out and back Turnbull!
So Newspoll has the Greens up to 12% and a record 13% on Nielsen.
Tell me again… WHY have the Greens supposedly signed their death warrant by not voting for the ETS?
This is for all the Labor hacks out there whose Labor hackery has yet again been proven wrong… :kiss:
The shock jocks are delusional!
Listen to “Liberal Radio”, otherwise known as 2GB! These turkeys are now boasting that they run the country, not the elected government!
I don’t know who I detest more: Jones, Steve Price or Chris Smith(the man who puts pictures of his 4 year old daughter in the bath on his website).
Notice how TTH has gone missing? He/she was clearly a one trick pony amd a Liberal one at that.
Mind you I know of counterexamples where the chaplains aren’t even religious and have been a great addition to the school community. But I agree with your point that there isn’t sufficient screening of them for this stuff – I know of an example of one in such a position in a private school that possibly precipitated a suicide attempt by a year 12 student.
[Now it is possible that this a hoax, I certainly hope so]
It’s not
Andrew Owens
The situations aren’t really comparable. There was no compelling reason for those 3 states to go early. Rudd could get away with a DD on CC given those figures.
I’d love to see it.
The bait is on board.
[This is for all the Labor hacks out there whose Labor hackery has yet again been proven wrong… ]
But so much for your prediction that the Greens would win Willigee! 😉
[The shock jocks are delusional!]
No, they just know what gets ratings and are playing to their audience
Just thinking of a counter-factual universe.
Here we have Wong patiently answering questions
What about a universe in which the Howard government’s climate change minister Turnbull was in a similar situtation…how long before he would have blown up in the Senate – 4 questions maybe?? 😀
Oh, and Bob, not all Labor supporters are one-eyed supporters of the legislation. Indeed, its failure may give Rudd a better opportunity to come back from Copenhagen and propose a revised ETS that hasn’t been compromised to buggery by the Liberals and industry. 1% differences in polls, btw, are within margin of error usually.
10 morning news had an ETS scare story on right after the main story on Lib leadership.
It was said that electric bills will go up 60% and the regional/country areas will be hit hardest having to pay an extra $450 a year.
We can expect stories like this every night on the news from now on I guess.
Fielding is playing for the disinfected (sic) ALP and Lib voterss
[“We’re going to discuss accepting disinfected members from Labor and Liberal whether they want to join Family First,” he told reporters, although he probably meant to say disaffected.
“There are some … in both parties that don’t believe the science is settled on this issue.”
]
One thing I’ve noticed: the Liberals and their media hack cheer squad hate international forums, whether it be the United Nations or something like the Copenhagen Conference. I guess it fits into the “left wing global conspiracy” argument Minchin and his foot soldiers are promoting.
Dare I say it but I’m gaining some, SOME, respect for Pyne.
Here’s another Carbon Footprint story from yesterday’s Guardian: Consumers want to make green choices Subtitle The potential of consumers to make a real difference when it comes to fighting climate change should not be wasted
Note: Italics – my emphasis!
Have you seen articles like this in Oz’s leading newspapers?
Aristotle 142
Thanks those comments on the ETS are interesting. The 66% support for passing an ETS is also encouraging for persuading the skeptics. The costs stuff is evidence that scarmongering works.
I think this makes it possible to “over-deliver” on the ETS. With later amendment it wil do more for the environment than assumed. On the cost side it will be less than people have been alarmed by, and with more benefits in terms of new green jobs.
Ooop. Bugger. Having another bad day!
[But so much for your prediction that the Greens would win Willigee! 😉 ]
I never ever said the Greens would win Willagee, I don’t believe I even commented on the by-election at all prior to election day.
Newspoll Greens 12%
Nielsen Greens record 13%
:kiss: all the Labor hackery proven wrong and torn to shreds yet again :kiss:
[Dare I say it but I’m gaining some, SOME, respect for Pyne.]
Remaining loyal to Turnball will probably means Pyne gets demoted! Minchin won’t reward the moderates, ie. Pyne, Hunt, McFarlane!
A plurality of voters, according to one of todays polls I forget which, accept that an ETS will probably be an economic negative [20 some % thought it would be positive and I dunno what the missing group thought] yet in the same poll a large majority support an ETS.
Clearly the ‘its gonna cost gazillions’ scare stories are going to have some but limited impact.
evan14 @ 150 – Steve Price must be screening his phone calls, it’s all anti ETS/anti-Rudd propoganda!
Why the hell I listen to this nonsense is beyond me!
Well, one of the alternatives is Ray Hadley…… 🙁
Will there be QT in the Reps today?
[Oh, and Bob, not all Labor supporters are one-eyed supporters of the legislation. ]
Here on PB they tend to be.
Also, you won’t find a single Labor MP who is prepared to say they don’t agree with it (but will nevertheless vote for it per Labor rules)
Socrates: One can legitimately criticse Rudd for leaving a vacuum, and letting the sceptics/idiots take over the debate! If the ETS, by some miracle, passed this week, the government would then need to spend some money on an advertising/educational campaign. For instance, the media aren’t reporting that most families, certainly those on incomes below $150,000 per annum, will be adequately compensated for price rises!
Loose Canons rule! loose Cannons are what makes the world interesting. imagine how boring it would be without loose canons. I propose an international “Loose Cannon Appreciation Day” symbol – the canon from monopoly set as a badge. Day december 1. when Turnbull goes Rogue
[The costs stuff is evidence that scarmongering works.]
Socrates, I don’t think it’s because of scaremongering, I think it’s because people figure you don’t get something for nothing.
They expect it to cost to save the environment, and they’re happy to do so – despite what the denialists think!
[The negative aspects of an ETS are already factored in, it doesn’t matter what the specifics are. There is little scope for a scare campaign, the public already it expect it to cost, but they are prepared to accept it for the benefit of the environment.
Yup. It’s a very good poll result for the ETS.]
I don’t entirely share your optimism. Most bludgers seem to think that the government is at Ajax odds to win the next election and I hope they are right but remember Ajax started at 40 to 1 on in a two horse race and lost.
[The negative aspects of an ETS are already factored in, it doesn’t matter what the specifics are. There is little scope for a scare campaign, the public already it expect it to cost]
Many argue that people don’t know the real costs. And I tend to agree that Australia as a whole generally tends to be ignorant of any particular policy detail.
[1. when Turnbull goes Rogue]
That’s why I think Turnball should go Independent! He serves out the remaining part of his term, he’s able to criticise the Liberals, and you can bet that Rudd & Albo in return would spend millions on infastructure in Wentworth!
OzPol Tragic
[How far from “leading the world” are we really?]
A long way Oz! You don’t get to be the worst per capita emitter in the OECD without doing something wRONg. Untill recently we haven’t evne been game to tell people how much power their plasam TV would use before they bought it. We let people air condition homes without getting them insulated first. Our building codes are hopelessly compromised by regulators selling out to local building product manufacturers. The five/six star rating system is just a “tick the box” approach that does not guarantee any correlation with energy consumption in the house. How many times have you ever seen double glazed windows in Australia? They can work for summer heat as well as winter cold. Moving to building industry self regulation has been just as big a failure as financial market self regulation was. We built lots of large, low quality houses. They weren’t even cheap either.
This doesn’t just affect energy consumption. Lots of our apartments have appallingly poor noise damping between walls.
Aristotle
Fair enough, but the irony of it is that, if you read Garnaut, the cost of an ETS is a 1% reduction in growth rate over 30 years! It is small. Most of the “costs” generate work for other people. Net economic cost is very low, unless you are Clive Palmer.
bob
well, for a start, I’m on the record repeatedly saying the targets aren’t high enough. But that upsets your stereotypes, so just ignore it.
[Also, you won’t find a single Labor MP who is prepared to say they don’t agree with it (but will nevertheless vote for it per Labor rules)]
???Are you saying there’s something wrong in saying you agree with something and then voting for it?
It’s possible you won’t find a single Labor MP disagreeing cos they don’t and therefore there is no hypocrisy in voting for it.
I notice that not a single Green Senator says they’re in support of the ETS, are we to assume that this means some of them are hypocrites?
[Will there be QT in the Reps today?]
Question Time must be held at 2 PM unless a motion is moved and voted on to stop it from going ahead.
I’m listening to the Senate
Midday Report said Rudd play major role and convinced India and Canada to come on board re agreement on ETS at CHOGM.
Also showed Kev giving Brian Lara an Australia Medal (i think that’s what it was)
[remember Ajax started at 40 to 1 on in a two horse race and lost]
Actually, that was a three horse race
[Also showed Kev giving Brian Lara an Australia Medal (i think that’s what it was)]
Honorary Order of Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/two-in-three-voters-back-emissions-scheme-poll-20091129-jyvm.html
I still can’t believe Labor actually lost 3% of the primary vote. The coalition lost 1%, the Greens picked up 4% to an all-time Nielsen record 13%. And past Green results have come in at 9, 10, 8, 8, 8, so lower than Newspoll. And Newspoll has the Greens up to 12%.
Honestly, all this Labor hackery spouted by Labor hacks that the Greens would pay the price for their Senate actions, just yet more hot air created by hyperventilating in the bubbles they live in.
:kiss:
[Honorary Order of Australia.]
Thanks Shows
Senator Cameron /= Senator Campbell. (A common mistake.)
[well, for a start, I’m on the record repeatedly saying the targets aren’t high enough. ]
cool zoomster. But I made no reference to you or your target belief. I simply said that most Labor hacks fully back the Rudd ETS.
[Midday Report said Rudd play major role and convinced India and Canada to come on board re agreement on ETS at CHOGM]
That’s pretty good work, in particular India