Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
And when the time comes to bring Hockey down, Abbot will be able to retrospectively claim that he acted with honour by standing aside for Hockey – ‘Abbot just wanted what was best for the party then, and he just wants what’s best for the party now’.
Surely Joe can’t be that stupid… can he?
[Federal Liberals expect Mr Hockey to announce as soon as today that he will stand in tomorrow’s leadership spill. ]
Well geez ABC – “as soon as today”. I guess that rules out tomorrow.
Although there seems to be a majority opinion amongst Australians that there should be an ETS and CPRS, is there a majority opinion stating that they are prepared to pay for it? I certainly hope there is. What do bludgers think?
[Surely Joe can’t be that stupid… can he?]
Power corrupts all, Dario! 😉
Dealing with these guys is like making a deal with the Mafia – the deal is ALWAYS on their terms, even if it was on your terms originally.
There is an opportunity for an alternative party to emerge here. If Stott-Despoja and Bartlett and one or two other disaffected Federal and State Libs got together to resurrect the Dems, and made a really serious push for the Senate, they have a real shot at a balance of power role in a DD election.
The extra support for the Greens indicates an unhappiness with Lib and ALP, but I’m not convinced the Greens are the solution to this disquiet – they’re might be seen as too radical. A measured Democrat party might just prick the Green bubble.
It will really depend on how quickly the piranhas in the Coalition devour Hockey. And with his fulsome frame that might take a while, but it will happen.
Abetz accuses ALP of filibuster!
Christopher Pyne just said nearly all of the anti-CPRS emails he has received are from people in QLD and W.A.
Everybody do yourselves a favour and don’t visit the the front page of The Australian online today, unless you want a truly disturbing image seared into your memory.
Aussieguru01 # 88. That’s your perogative. You can be as academically rigorous or biased as you like. As my research was for a Class A national, it was rigorously peer reviewed before I was allowed present it (& it wasn’t an Ed or religious/ athiest conference either).
Queensland’s constitutional amendment – and I have an odd feeling it might have been the one state with one – was a reaction to the non-secular educational push created by c1870’s sectarian stouch between protestants (from memory, mainly Presbyterian, Methodist & Lutheran) and Catholics stirred up by the visit of a Papal Nuncio of the more rabid type. I imagine that NSW government schools were also originally constitutionally non-sectarian, because one of my most vivid research memories is of a letter/ speech by Sir Henry Parkes’ (printed in a Sydney paper) that included an OMG! tirade on “the snapping jaws of the Papist crocodile”.
Wouldn’t Parkes have been rolling in his grave these last few weeks!
The Senate can’t even figure out when they are going to lunch. 🙁
[don’t visit the the front page of The Australian online]
Sage advice, any day of the week
NJB, I think it was established in comments yesterday that 1 million of about 8 million households in Australia have agreed to pay extra on their electricity bills in order to support use of “green” power, so the data suggests only about 12% or so of households are happy to pay more for environmentally cleaner electricity. I think the issue of an ETS pushing power bills higher can hurt Labor, especially with the Libs and their media cheer squad running the inevitable scare campaign on the issue. The government needs to really get the message out that people will be compensated. Maybe a media campaign about how to reduce household energy use would help too. If people think they will finish a bit in front financially, then there is no political problem. If people just see the big increase in their quarterly power bill, there could be quite a big political problem, IMO.
Laocoon # 96 & other Senate ‘streamers” (I can’t on my plan) I’d love to be kept up to date with the slogans – beside If you can’t govern yourself, you can’t govern the country which we all know.
They’ll be next election’s slogans!
Grattan sums up the Liberals’ problems:
[The party is now set on installing Joe Hockey whether he likes it or not.]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/liberals-floundering-in-chaos-20091129-jywk.html
z
Rudd won’t use the ETS as a DD trigger as it’s too complicated legally to do so. Antony asys the Safework Australia and Ruddbank (which Turnbull could run) would be better triggers, although they haven’t been rejected twice yet.
[Maybe a media campaign about how to reduce household energy use would help too. If people think they will finish a bit in front financially, then there is no political problem. If people just see the big increase in their quarterly power bill, there could be quite a big political problem, IMO.]
These are my thoughts too.
[Laocoon # 96 & other Senate ’streamers” (I can’t on my plan) I’d love to be kept up to date with the slogans ]
You can stream just the audio. It is a 16 Kbps mono stream that uses about 7 MB per hour.
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx1/hms943a.asx
OzPol Tragic
The only slogan that sticks to mind so far is “fair working hours for the Senate” 😀
Still voting on this issue!
[Rudd won’t use the ETS as a DD trigger as it’s too complicated legally to do so. ]
I don’t think so. If Hockey just postpones the pain until Feb, then the time will eventually come where he will need to make a decision on whether the Liberals block it or not.
There’s no way the government will go to a D.D. before July 3rd, else their 2nd term will be limited to 2 years.
[If people just see the big increase in their quarterly power bill]
An issue is that power bills may go up for reasons other than ETS – namely years of under-investment, (long term) coal contract prices renegotiated etc
OzPol Tragic,
After reading the facts on this program I have no problem with it. Technically speaking if you meet the criteria you or I or even Socrates could be funded chaplains and there if no need for a religious bias either.
Yesterday is history, tomorow is a mystery but today is today!
[An issue is that power bills may go up for reasons other than ETS]
Not investing in nuclear power a decade ago…
The Libs won’t give Rudd a trigger on anything. And I’m increasingly persuaded that he doesn’t want one anyway.
[so the data suggests only about 12% or so of households are happy to pay more for environmentally cleaner electricity]
That is an entirely disingenuous assumption. Just because only 12% currently do it does not mean that more aren’t willing to in the future.
[The Libs won’t give Rudd a trigger on anything. ]
So do you think the Liberals will vote for the CPRS in Feb? Will they ask for even more amendments so they can pretend their position is different from what it was last Tuesday?
Psephos
Gartrell seems to be moving the other way.
[KEVIN Rudd’s chief strategist at the 2007 election says there is a “buzz” around a possible early poll and believes the PM is open to the idea. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/prime-minister-kevin-rudd-open-to-idea-of-an-early-federal-election/story-e6frgczf-1225805228546
OzPol Tragic
Another coalition slogan…”Government is filbustering the CPRS legislation”. Macfarlane has just started along this path.
Looks like I might have to break out the no-doze now…
[Gartrell seems to be moving the other way]
To scare the crap out of the Libs I would assume
Dario
[so the data suggests only about 12% or so of households are happy to pay more for environmentally cleaner electricity
That is an entirely disingenuous assumption. Just because only 12% currently do it does not mean that more aren’t willing to in the future.
]
Agreed and the argument is plain stupid. GreenPower means ALL of your electricity comes fom renewables so it’s quite a bit more expensive that what the ETS will provide (say 20% coming from RE).
[Another coalition slogan…”Government is filbustering the CPRS legislation”. Macfarlane has just started along this path.]
Well, it’s a commonly known fact that the Libs are full of liars
Dario
This comment he made would scare them even more.
[ACNielsen today is saying, and it is actually quite a comparable question, that there is 57 per cent support for the government calling an early election if a CPRS is blocked.]
Socrates (74 at 10.12 am),
Chaplaincy hasbeen a traditional part of school funding for at least 50 years in Victoria. My first school had a chaplain, and an excellent person she was too. It has been a complete non-issue for almost the entire 50 years. It became an issue only when John Howard decided to fund it, telling us all that the issue was not chaplaincy itself but the Howard government.
Silly me, I just looked at the Australian online front page!
Abbott makes Debnam look good, and that’s not saying much!
Mad Monk, keep your clothes on! 😉
[This comment he made would scare them even more.]
Yes, 57% of people ready to take a baseball bat to the coalition for being obstructionist, even AFTER saying they would support the bill.
OzPol #110 – although it was not done on any constitutional basis, I know secular primary schools in WA had a similar scheme. The Catholics opted to start their own schools instead and there was a massive battle over state aid to the private (mostly Catholic) schools in the 1894 election, which resulted in its 3 main supporters being defeated and state aid passing out of the statute books a year later. The Anglicans were believed not to have objected primarily because of the sort of provision you cited in the state schools.
Wong is great! She is just pointing out that all the questions being asked have already been answered in the material given to the opposition for the agreement.
Wong is playing this much better today, she is keeping her responses to a bare minimum, thus forcing the Nats to do all the filibustering themselves.
Diogenes #127 – I’m pretty sure Rudd would look at QLD, NT and WA and think going to an early poll is at present something voters are unhappy with the notion of, regardless of past inclinations.
Now Fiona Nash is just asking the same question again. Wong should say “refer to my previous answer”.
One thing I am looking forward to is Turnball turning Rogue. I hope he lands a lot of punches, to the traitors, the deniers and the losers. Go malcopops the force is with you. Join the ALP
[ACNielsen today is saying, and it is actually quite a comparable question, that there is 57 per cent support for the government calling an early election if a CPRS is blocked.]
One word springs to mind… BOOM 😀
Some key points in all the results that have been released today. From Nielsen.
66% want the ETS (ie action on climate change, whatever that entails)
51% see ETS as positive for the environment, 6% negative for the environment
45% see ETS as negative for the economy, 25% positive for the economy.
They believe an ETS will be good for the environment, AND they believe it will cost.
That’s it folks – it’s all over.
The negative aspects of an ETS are already factored in, it doesn’t matter what the specifics are. There is little scope for a scare campaign, the public already it expect it to cost, but they are prepared to accept it for the benefit of the environment.
Chris Curtis. 133
Yes the Victorian position was fair enough. I have no problem with people practising their religeous views in a voluntary manner. It should be a personal choce, niether promoted nor hindered by the State. I have helped religeous volunteer groups myself; most of them do good work. Howard wanted to “own” the teaching of religeon in schools so he gave them our money to promote his view of the world. Hence I object.
How Wong keeps here equanimity is amazing
[Join the ALP]
Nah. His barbs will do a lot more damage if he stays in the Libs.
[Burgey
Posted Monday, November 30, 2009 at 9:27 am | Permalink
Today’s desk calendar quote:
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.
– Napoleon Bonaparte]
I wish someone would point that out to Senator Campbell!
Every time he interjects the Opposition speaker takes the opportunity to waste another 15 minutes responding to the interjection which is usually inane in any case!
😉
*her
[One thing I am looking forward to is Turnball turning Rogue. I hope he lands a lot of punches, to the traitors, the deniers and the losers. Go malcopops the force is with you. Join the ALP]
Michelle Gratten this morning was arguing that Turnball should gracefully retire to the Liberal back bench and be a good boy until the next election.
Ain’t gonna happen methinks!
Malcopops will either turn Independent or join the ALP! 😉
[The negative aspects of an ETS are already factored in, it doesn’t matter what the specifics are. There is little scope for a scare campaign, the public already it expect it to cost, but they are prepared to accept it for the benefit of the environment.]
Yup. It’s a very good poll result for the ETS.
Steve Price must be screening his phone calls, it’s all anti ETS/anti-Rudd propoganda!
Why the hell I listen to this nonsense is beyond me!