Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
This is unvelieveable – I cannot believe they’ve done this to themselves.
4 more terms! 4 more terms!
And Mesma will help to hold it all together
All I can say is:
😆 😆 😆 😆
Well, Turnbull might just hang around and come back in a few weeks when Abbott stuffs up completely.
The Libs are split in half
[And Mesma will help to hold it all together]
Of course, she’s such a “unifying figure”. 😉
It’s time for the Magnificent 7 to stand up and be counted.
Fran Bailey was absent. WTF
What a gift for the Labor Party…..Mad Monk and mesma as the deputy 🙂
So someone didn’t vote?
And now I hope 7 moderate Senators cross the floor anyway which will be a massive cherry on the cake.
I do hope the moderates show some bottle, cross the floor, vote for the ETS!
If I was Gillard/Albo/Labor senate leadership, I’d be doing a deal with the moderate Liberal senators immediately.
“Shooting themselves in the feet” OH just said.
Geez, won’t that settle Libs’ divisions!
I wonder whether Coalition Senators will be missing in action when the Senate vote is taken.
Sit back and contemplate: Abbott 42 Turnbull 41.
Let them reap what they sow. 😀
Now what happens to the ETS. Will the seven senators cross the floor?
Senate in 5 minutes – come on Penny!
Bring on the political billabong! LOL!!
And Radio Liberal are delighted.
Jesus, you think you’ve seen it all over the years, but this tops everything.
Troeth apparently said this morning she would vote for the ETS come what may. But she has nothing to lose. It’s a much bigger ask for young Senators like Birmingham.
“The worst of all possible worlds … after the election the prospect of becoming a political billabong’ ~Chris Uhlmann
Turnball 26
First round
Hockey 23
Abbott 35
Equals 84
second round
Turnball 41
Abbott 42
equals 83
They can’t even run a leadership ballot
A side issue raised on our ABC:
The numbers don’t add up.
A total of 84 voted in the first ballot.
83 voted in the second.
Hockey deserves to eat his own vomit. he should retire and enjoy his young family.
So about 49 people back Turnbull or Hockey and 35 Abbott – same as the spill vote last time. So that many think CPRS should be passed or their should be a free vote. What chance of Abbott squashing the CPRS supporters?
yes.. but what about the ets?
Have they forgotten Abbott’s appalling performance in the last election? He’s a vote-loser.
They have just elected the guy that Nielsen and Newspoll said is their least popular leader!
I was wRONg
tho the closeness suggest that this aint the end
Malcolm missed by one, tho he tried darn hard
Democracy is the real loser
(off for a cry,lie down and a few bex and then a biscuit)
Hockey had the leadership on a plate, and he blew it with own stupidity.
Cassidy and Toolman talking up the ETS Tax Bogeyman.
Fagin will be $2400 richer if Monk hangs on ’till election.
Wrote this Sept last year:
http://www.waggaguide.com.au/?id=malcolminamuddle
No one listened. My own father laughed in my face.
Abbott as leader represents a very narrow church of a party indeed.
This is the end of the Libs for sure
[A side issue raised on our ABC:]
Someone must’ve abstained, i.e. voted for no one.
What chance the Greens in Higgins now.
Prediction 50-50%
Abbott is a disaster in that type of electorate.
[And Radio Liberal are delighted.]
Yes, Ray Hadley and Steve Price are wetting themselves with excitement! 😉
[Hockey had the leadership on a plate, and he blew it with own stupidity.]
So do you think he should’ve said he would delay the vote until Feb, even if he ultimately told his party in Feb to vote for it?
Or he should’ve unveilved the “everyone gets a conscience vote” in Feb, and dared the party to have ANOTHER leadership ballot.
[sunriseon7
Mark Riley: “The biggest shock was for Joe Hockey” 1 MP was missing & somebody voted informal! Oh dear! #spill 3 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]
Malcolm Turnbull will be the PM one day, another 12 years, if he has the patience.
Ets will be squashed….third party to emerge…..floor crossing by 1 o 2 abstainers 1 or 2
Fran Bailey wasn’t there second round according to RileyReporter via Twitter:
RileyReporter: Fran Baily was not at teh vote #spill. Would she have voted for Turnbull or Abbott? What would have hapened if there was a tie? #spill
PVO is right to say that Turnbull comes out of this quite well – maybe he thinks he can come back if (when) Abbott falls apart.
Maybe Hockey abstained in the second round?
Fran Bailey didn’t vote? Couldn’t they wake her up?
The Age this morning said Bailey is ill and wasn’t there.
Turnbull put up a good show in spite of all predictions.
Now all the deniers, “skeptics”, Opus Dei types, social conservatives, hayseeds and happy clappys get their wish. Just how palatable is their version of the world to the general public?
[ Hockey had the leadership on a plate, and he blew it with own stupidity. ]
Ah… Sloppy. Never misses and opportunity to miss an opportunity 🙂
Diogenes
Yes, now the question is indeed will the necessary 7 Libs in the Senate cross the floor on the ETS bill? I’d say with such a close leadership vote, and a high degree of ‘unacceptance’ likely amongst the moderates, the answer is almost certainly yes. What does Abbott do then?
Samantha Maiden says one of the votes was informal:
[There was one informal vote in final 42 41 result]