Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44

Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.

On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.

Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.

On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.

On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43; Nielsen: 56-44”

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  3. Gary Humphries said on Lateline last night that he would support the Party policy in the Senate. I might be taking this out of context, but he seemed to be implying “even if the policy is to vote against the ETS”.

    We will see soon enough.

  7. [If I was Gillard/Albo/Labor senate leadership, I’d be doing a deal with the moderate Liberal senators immediately.]

    Evan – ditto.

  12. My next question would be: will the moderates be welcome in Abbott’s shadow cabinet?
    The really scary thought: nutjobs like Jensen will be promoted!

  15. [Toeth apparently said this morning she would vote for the ETS come what may. But she has nothing to lose. It’s a much bigger ask for young Senators like Birmingham.]

    If Toeth + one other replace Steve + Nick what sort of pressure does that put the Greens under?

  16. [I’ve been in the Hockey and no ETS camp since Friday. I haven’t seen anything to change my mind yet.]

    Who said this? Another one for the PB wRONg Hall of Fame :kiss:

  19. [Bailey was NOT THERE.]

    She might have done a proxy vote for a spill but not the leadership because she couldn’t know what the leadership battle would be.

  20. “I will win on Tuesday.”

    “I don’t bear grudges … I am not a hater.”

    “If Nick Minchin wins this battle he condemns our party to irrelevance.”

    The first statement, over-shoot. The second statement, under-shoot. The third statement, right on target…

  21. The ETS will pass, the Liberal will denie being part of it now, under Abbott.

    The Liberals are hoping for shambles at Copenhagen and then the cost of the ETS to hit and that will gove them government in 2014.

    Interesting plan

  22. Best possible result for Labor.
    Ultimately good result for Hockey – lives to fight another day. Brilliant for Turnbull, almost Lazarus-like. Looks like a good result for Abbott, but unfortunately he gets to ride kamikaze pilot for his party.

  24. Fagin,
    Fagin will be $2400 richer if Monk hangs on ’till election.
    Wrote this Sept last year:

    The election could come rapidly towards Abbott. How tempting, then on the other hand, they keep on getting worse, who knows what will happen, the longer they are not given a reality check at the voting booths the better, Maybe feb 2011 could be the best option,. They could be completely exhausted and in complete meltdown by then.
    This means that the Greens have the BOP after the next election.

  25. Spill motion must have had 2 informal votes.
    Would R1 84 have included Bailey, who then abstained from R2?

    What mayhem. What a mandate for MM!!!!

  27. FAke Howard:

    [JohnHowardAC

    I’ve just witnessed the destruction of my party. Now I’m off to shoot something. #spill 3 minutes ago from web ]

  28. A nightmare for Paul Fletcher and Kelly O’Dwyer, they’ll have to campaign with a climate change sceptic in green friendly electorates.

  31. [samanthamaiden

    Just repeating that tweeps one vote in final vote 42-41 was informal #spill less than 20 seconds ago from web ]

  32. Diog they were saying last night that Turnbull Hockey support would be split…and Abbott could get up but yopu’re right most said Hockey V abbott, Hockey wins

  33. I think the loony right is far too convinced of its own ability to fool people. In a way this will be good because the climate deniers are going to be in the center spotlight as they go down.

  34. [How many people here picked Abbott to win? I don’t think a single one.]
    None of us believed the Liberals could be that stupid.

    I wonder if they will be able to run a concerted and consistent line against the ETS, or will they just split between people campaigning against the ETS and others who campaign against the existence of climate change?

    If they try to sell those two different messages then they are stuffed.

  35. [How many people here picked Abbott to win? I don’t think a single one.]

    Diog,

    [The Finnigans – Posted Monday, November 30, 2009 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

    Please, pretty please, elect Abbott. My wet dream comes true.]

    😛 😛 😛

  40. I don’t know if I will be up to stomach watching those on the right the Liberal party now calling for loyalty and adherence to the will of the party room.

  42. Andrews saying

    [ We now need to be a strong, united and focused opposition ]

    Dream on. A few minutes ago they were split right down the middle. When people mull all this over attitudes will harden not mellow.

    Mad Monk ! what a chrissy present for St Kevin and labor.

    Ho ho ho!

  43. Sam Maiden: A clear majority 54 29 voted to oppose ETS in senate.

    Of the 54, 12 voted for Turnbull over Abbott in R2???????????????????

    So, these 12 are pro-ETS but respect Abbott’s mandate, I guess.

    How does that work for y’all?!!

  46. If the Greens had found an acceptable candidate for Higgins they might have a chance of an upset now, but the Vic Greens always run feral extremists and sabotage their own chances.

  47. I reckon Turnbull will hang on for at least a while. He’d be thinking, surely Abbott can produce a terminal stuff-up in the next 2-3 months?

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