Friday, December 4
LATE: Michelle Grattan of The Age reports “Liberal sources” believe the situation in Higgins to be “lineball”.
EARLY: Apologies for lack of updates. Malcolm Mackerras is tipping a Greens boilover: he says the Liberal vote will sink to 44 per cent, and presumably expects something like 70 per cent of preferences to go to the Greens. That would entail a 10 per cent drop on the primary vote, which is not dissimilar to what happened in somewhat similar circumstances in Mayo last year. However, Higgins is notable for its lack of volatility, so Mackerras is taking a bold punt on the force of the Abbott/ETS backlash. I can’t help recalling Mackerras’s prediction of a John Kerry landslide in 2004, which appeared to be rooted in a conviction that voters would prove as angered by the Iraq war as he was – his talk of “resentment at climate change denialists” strikes me as being cut from the same cloth. I’m tipping an uncomfortable night for Kelly O’Dwyer, but expect she will get up. At this point, Greens supporters with long memories will be recalling I said much the same thing before the Fremantle by-election.
Word on the ground is that the Liberal campaign has focused on O’Dwyer’s positives, rather than attack Hamilton as an extremist as might have been expected if they were really worried. However, it seems the party has embarked on a significant change of tack in the past week, with O’Dwyer “issuing a last-minute mail-out to voters to assert her views on climate change”.
As always, tune in tomorrow night for live coverage.
Tuesday, November 17
Blogger and former Liberal Party activist Tim Andrews offers a colourful take on the Greens preselection process, alleging widespread discontent in local branches over the imposition of Clive Hamilton.
Friday, November 13
The ballot paper draw has been conducted, and the order of candidates can be viewed here. Candidates I hadn’t known about: independent Peter Brohier (“lawyer”), Isaac Roberts of the Liberal Democratic Party (“accountant”) and Democratic Labor Party regular John Mulholland (“psychologist”).
Friday, November 6
AAP reports Steve Raskovy, “a 72-year-old former Hungarian wrestler and refugee”, will run for One Nation. Antony Green has embellished his by-election page with candidate details.
Wednesday, November 4
From Friedrich in comments we learn that Joseph Toscano, Anarchist Media Institute director and prolific writer of letters to the editor, is seeking the local residents’ signatures required to lodge a nomination.
Tuesday, November 3
LATE: The Australian Democrats have announced their candidate will be David Collyer, who contributes regular posts to the blog of the party’s Victorian division.
EARLY: Climate Sceptics announces that Stephen Murphy, a Melbourne computer programmer who “speaks five languages”, will run as an “Independent Climate Sceptic”.
Thursday, October 29
Antony Green weighs in on the by-election, adding further voice to the consensus that the Greens’ nomination of Clive Hamilton is tactically unsound. Danielle Crowe of the Manningham Leader reports Crikey empire founder, Manningham councillor and perennial deposit non-recoverer Stephen Mayne has “not ruled out” running as an independent. Nominations close November 12, with the ballot draw to follow the next day.
Monday, October 26
Speaker Harry Jenkins has confirmed that the Higgins and Bradfield by-elections will be held on December 5.
Saturday, October 24
A wide-ranging chorus of critics has chimed in to argue Hamilton’s decidedly non-liberal political and economic philosophies are a poor fit for the electorate he has chosen to contest. As “Carlton’s lone classical liberal” Andrew Norton puts it: “It’s not often that Pollytics, Andrew Bolt and Catallaxy blogs all reach the same conclusion”. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports similar sentiments from RMIT University economist and Institute of Public Affairs senior fellow Sinclair Davidson, who argues voters in Higgins (which as Kerr notes includes “Chapel Street, Toorak Road and the High Street strip”) are unlikely to respond to the “ascetic” and “spartan” lifestyle Hamilton demands to ward off ecological apocalypse, to be achieved if need be by “the suspension of democratic processes”. On top of which, his views on internet filtering could potentially alienate parts of the Greens’ core constituency, particularly if they have an alternative candidate to turn to.
Friday, October 23
The Greens have unveiled a high-profile candidate in Clive Hamilton, founder and former executive director of left-wing think tank the Australia Institute and current professor of public ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics.
Thursday, October 22
Labor has slightly surprisingly decided it won’t be entering the fray. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports: “Labor insiders who spoke on condition of anonymity explained that the widespread presumption of demographic change in Higgins, and a big swing more generally, was not substantiated by the party’s secret polling, presented on Powerpoint to the Prime Minister recently, which showed a likely Liberal victory even in the tough circumstances in Malcolm Turnbull’s Liberals find themselves.”
Monday, October 19
Peter Costello formally tendered his resignation today to Speaker Harry Jenkins, who is expected to announce an election date of November 28 or December 5 in the coming days.
Saturday, October 10
Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Peter Costello will officially resign when parliament resumes on October 19. Given a campaign of average length, this will mean a polling date of November 28 or December 5: after “the final two-week parliamentary sitting in which the Coalition – if it doesn’t filibuster – will have to vote on Labor’s emissions trading scheme”. Antony Green at the ABC and Ben Raue at The Tally Room have guides to the by-election posted.
Wednesday, October 7
Samantha Maiden of The Australian reports Peter Costello is “set to resign from Parliament today”, which will most likely result in a by-election for his seat of Higgins on the same yet-to-be-announced date as the one for Bradfield. Costello holds the eastern suburbs Melbourne seat with a margin of 7.0 per cent, having suffered a swing of 1.7 per cent at the 2007 election. The preselection to replace him at the next election was held a fortnight ago and won by his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer.
marg,
So, what’s your assessment on a success. How low can the Greens primary vote be that you will still consider it a positive step towards the future Greens hegemony.
Is it 10, 20 or 30%.
How emabarrassment would it be if the ASP out polled Clive. Would it mean the voters of Higgins enjoy sex more than their Greens?
Success will be for our children to be alive to judge in 50 years.
[How emabarrassment would it be]
Shooting ones self in the foot multiple times… nice.
[I’m a bit suspicious of Fiona Patten.
I agree with a number of ASP policies, but I’m wary of candidates promoting policies that stand to benefit them so obviously and immediately.
One of the ASP’s policies is to increase accessibility to pornographic material. Along with being convenor of the ASP, she is the CEO of the Eros Foundation – the peak body that represents retailers who sell… pornographic material.]
Yes Oz, there is self-interest, but isn’t self-interest in one form or another why most/all people get in to politics in the first place? Self-interest is certainly what influences how people vote…
I for one would vote for Patten in a heartbeat, and i’m sure many other lefties would. Unlike Laborites, we’re not conjoined to a particular party, and that’s what makes our views more independent and honest. I’d put the ASP above the Greens because I believe in the ASPs policies more. So who cares if the Greens get slagged off, it just shows how preoccupied some people are with a minor party they have no interest in voting for – how very monumentally sad.
🙂
marg,
So 10% for Clive is it?
[Yes Oz, there is self-interest, but isn’t self-interest in one form or another why most/all people get in to politics in the first place?]
If an MP was proposing such a policy on pornography as Fiona Patten, and they were receiving donations from those retailers, then there would be a lot of questions being asked.
[“So 10% for Clive is it?”]
I know it’s a foreign concept to you GG but put yourself in the shoes of your grandchildren, and ask, “what did my grandpapa do”
What are they going to think? 10-20-30%, $300,000– half a million to run a bielection.
I suspect in your world they will be worrying about fresh drinking water and where to find the next meal.
One thing is for sure in the Higgins bielections, is that Labor will be 0%
Oz, MP’s do propose similar proposals to benefit themselves all the time. Tas ALP and Libs helping Gunns?
marg,
I’m not buying your hokey Armagheddonist view of the world.
If you want to run around like a decapitated chook preaching your self righteous bunkum, fill yoor boots. But, surely, you don’t expect anyone of even moderate intelligence to take you seriously?
You need a bex and a good lie down.
[If you want to run around like a decapitated chook preaching your self righteous bunkum, fill yoor boots. But, surely, you don’t expect anyone of even moderate intelligence to take you seriously?]
So you are a climate chang denialist, just like the loonies in the COALision,
marg,
Spoken by a representative of a Party that denies the opportunity to achieve up to 25% reduction in GHG. Buy yourself a mirror if you want to see the real CC Deniers.
One things for sure, everyone will be able to read how The Greens did everything up to but not including doing something about CC. The vote down in the Senate will stand as a testament to the hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy of the Greens.
[MP’s do propose similar proposals to benefit themselves all the time. Tas ALP and Libs helping Gunns?]
Yes, exactly.
Which is why I wouldn’t vote for the the ALP of Liberals in Tasmania. And it’s why I wouldn’t vote the ASP. Even though I agree with probably most of their policies, the fact that Patten and her company stand to gain financially so blatantly from a number of them is a major turn off. Pun intended.
Oz,
According to today’s press, St Bobs havin secret cosy meetings with Gunns. Maybe they are discussing contributions to his poor box to save his pension.
GG,
Keep repeating your rubbish if it will make you feel better and perhaps you might convince some here.
But if only16% of Labor voters support Rudds ETS, well i’d say you have a lot of work to do.
marg,
You’re the one with the ideological blinkers on. I’m sure you’re proud that you learn nothing just like your Liberal brethren on Four Corners last night.
You just love rejoicing in your ignorance.
The exchange between Marg and GG is a) not very interesting, and b) increasingly detached from the Higgins by-election. Can we wrap it up please.
Now that Chk Chk Boom girl is considering running in Bradfield, I propose we enlist Cory Worthington to run in Higgins. What thinks the PB brain trust?
deconst,
Last I heard of Corey, he was cleaning up his act and getting a job.
Perhaps the Greens might like to try it sometime.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/entertainment/816858/corey-worthington-hunts-for-a-job
GG – running in Higgins sounds like a great job! I will email him and suggest it.
deconst.
If you read the article link that William provided, you will know that she is not considering running. She was asked, she turned it down.
That does not mean Corey Worthington should not stand! Who here is with me? Anyone know how to reach him?
COALlusion, i like it. COALlusion.
Illusion, illusionary, ‘To have a dillusion, to act from dillusion. To consider that belief premeditates reality. To have confusion around fact and thought.
One of the reasons why we can see the disgrace that was 4 Corners last night is that we have a education system that hands out PhDs around studies in illusion/dillusion. I’m about to offend some people but here goes, haw can any serious learnig institution justify giving a Doctorate of Theology. Its just word games and nonsense. But its sinister as it leads to the COALlusion’s position on Global Warming. They think that they can legitimately debate nonscience, nonsense.
“Everyone should be able to have their own oppinion but not their own facts” Someone else’s quote.
Doesn’t the coal-ition have access to wikipedia? All the info on climate change is there including graphs of the last few thousand years.
I like the democrat in Higgins. I will give him my vote, my $2 and hope they can use it constructively- although I haven’t seen any letterboxing/flyers.
If only Natasjia Stott Despoja came back to join them it would propell them back from obscurity.
[Last I heard of Corey, he was cleaning up his act and getting a job.
Perhaps the Greens might like to try it sometime.]
Early Labor MPs who fought for parliamentary pay would be disgusted in you right now.
just a quick fyi/reminder that candidate nominations close today, to be announced tomorrow.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/13/2742200.htm
[The candidates for the by-election in the federal feat of Higgins in Melbourne have been officially announced.]
The liberal democrat is under the Liberal, afew people might get confused and he could pull a few extra votes. The climate change sceptic donkey is first so will get the donkey- worth about 3% I reckon.
Antony has got a guy named Ron Anderson who doesn’t appear on the list
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/2009-higgins/candidates.htm
Is this John Mulholland the same one who contested the DLP’s deregistration in that famous case? This is of course of no more importance than my general interest.
Centaur009
[ I like the democrat in Higgins. I will give him my vote, my $2 and hope they can use it constructively- although I haven’t seen any letterboxing/flyers. ]
The Candidate only gets your $2 if they get over 4% of the primary vote – the Democrat is unlikely to do that so won’t get anything. The demographic in Higgins is unlikely to make a 3% donkey vote, even at a by-election so the skeptic bufoon won’t get his deposit back either. I think it is quite likely that only the Liberals and Greens will surpass the 4% thresh hold. The only other one that has a chance is the Australian Sex Party, a name like that is just begging for votes from disgruntled voters, upset at having to rock up.
I don’t think you shouldn’t vote for the Democrats just because no one will get the $2 though, a vote is more important than a gold coin donation.
Having said that, go Hamilton! Australia’s greatest economist!
[The only other one that has a chance is the Australian Sex Party, a name like that is just begging for votes from disgruntled voters, upset at having to rock up.]
Not to mention the disaffected young male vote.
Age profile on candidates.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/liberal-takes-no-chances-in-higgins-20091113-ieti.html
I have seen nothing except from the lib during this campaign. No signs, no flyers, nada. I saw the libs car plastered with photo etc conveniently parked outside the school fete entrance on Sunday. The Greens should have stuck one of thei triangles somewhere!! What a complete waste of tax payer money and time
Andrew Landeryou’s take on the suspicious Greens pre selection process.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7348/stalinist-greens-higgins-candidate-selected-by-unelected-six-person-panel/
[Andrew Landeryou’s take on the suspicious Greens pre selection process.]
hmm, similar to what happened in Willagee as well – there goes the myth about the Greens being open and upfront on pre-selections.
GG quoting Andrew Landeryou, is like Bolt quoting Blair
[GG quoting Andrew Landeryou, is like Bolt quoting Blair]
More like an inconvenient truth for the Acoyltes of St Bob.
Poor old marg, can’t refute the facts so has to resort to abuse. What would the grandchildren think?
[Poor old marg, can’t refute the facts so has to resort to abuse. What would the grandchildren think?]
I agree, see the willagee thread GG for a prime example of them spinning the dog’s breakfast they created.
The whole Landeryou & Andrews piece doesn’t have a shred of trustworthy evidence. Andrews even contradicts himself when he says that “St Bob’s” office supported Clive’s nomination.
In any case, if there is any shred of truth in the story, the Vic Greens will get what’s coming to them. Don’t worry, the QLD greens can still keep a ‘Holier than Thou’ attitude as Bartlett is at least a resident of Bridbane.
I still want Clive to win, how entertaining would question time be!
As ususual, a Greens acolyte examines the body of evidence against them and declares themselves innocent.
What a joke of self delusion they are.
Hey GG,
Hottest November ever? Alarmist, or are you comfy in the Aircon.
Its interesting to see that the ALP rusteds and the COALlusion apologist are all clamoring to shout ‘hypocrits’, at the Greens. The fact that the Greens are massively cleaner than them really gets up their nose. (Party donations/branch stacking/ factions/ etc etc)
Re the supposed inside tension, fantasy, of course any time a decision is made there will be people upset.
As for the St Bob rubbish, it must be hard for the old party’s to imagine a ‘real’ membership of over 2000 active engaged and participatory people.
However, the real issue is the default position of the old worn out party’s. Mud, Mud Glorious mud. No policies, no vision, no ability to attck Global Warming and move away from their old relationships with the polluting old tired industries of the 20th Century.
Where are the jobs of our children and Grand Children coming from. Surely not Coal!
Barking,
I fart in your general direction.
[As for the St Bob rubbish, it must be hard for the old party’s to imagine a ‘real’ membership of over 2000 active engaged and participatory people.]
Is that the national membership ??
GG,
Check out Willagee for some more examples on the inability of our Molde on Green beinmg incapable of reading.
“As for the St Bob rubbish, it must be hard for the old party’s to imagine a ‘real’ membership of over 2000 active engaged and participatory people”.
Sounds like the Greens enjoy an orgy.
Greensborough Growler,
Frank.
Totally devoid of content.
Poor old GG, can’t refute the facts so has to resort to abuse. What would the grandchildren think?
This is all great stuff, but it’s threatening to lead us the tiniest bit off topic.
[Greensborough Growler,
Frank.
Totally devoid of content.]
Just like Greens policy – all motherhood statements and no real solutions.