Tuesday, November 24
Comments thread troublemaker Frank Calabrese has caught the attention of The West Australian’s Inside Cover.
Saturday, November 14
The Fremantle Herald reports Gerry Georgatos is forming a new party he proposes to call the “Real Greens”. Such a name would certainly not be permissible under the Commonwealth Electoral Act, but the state’s Electoral Act does not contain a provision equivalent to that prohibiting a name which “a reasonable person would think suggests that a connection or relationship exists between the party and a registered party if that connection or relationship does not in fact exist” (which was designed to disqualify Liberals for Forests and others like it). Georgatos also disputes Lynn MacLaren’s denial last week that she had been behind the preselection of Hsien Harper, saying she had previously admitted this to him.
UPDATE: I’ve been provided with a more in-depth version of the same article, presumably from the Melville or Cockburn version of the Herald.
Sunday, November 8
The Sunday Times reports Georgatos will be directing preferences to Labor:
Labor candidate Peter Tinley’s chances of winning the Willagee state by-election have been boosted, with independent Gerry Georgatos giving preferences to Labor at the November 28 poll. Mr Georgatos, who unsuccessfully sought pre-selection for Willagee for the Greens, said apart from himself, he believed Mr Tinley was the best candidate. He said Greens candidate Hsien Harper was a “good person”, but he believed Mr Tinley was a better candidate. Mr Georgatos denied giving Labor his preferences as payback for not being pre-selected.
Friday, November 6
This week’s Fremantle Herald features a letter from Greens MLC Lynn MacLaren (right) in which she rejects claims the branch meeting that preselected Hsien Harper was stacked, saying the party’s “consensus decision-making” means “branch stacking isn’t possible”. One who begs to differ is Steve Walker, who has told the paper he quit because of “the appalling dishonesty and branch-stacking within the party”. Notwithstanding that he is no longer involved with the party, Walker claims the Willagee preselection was “all the handiwork of Lynn”, whom he labels “the Brian Burke of the Greens”. The paper also corrects its assertion last week that Walker’s gripe had been that he was overlooked for preselection in Fremantle at the expense of Adele Carles – his aspirations had in fact been for the South Metropolitan seat currently occupied by MacLaren. Walker then proceeded to run as an independent, and lodged an above-the-line preference ticket which was punitive with respect to MacLaren personally: while her Greens running mate Scott Ryan was put second, MacLaren was placed behind all major party candidates (since MacLaren was elected anyway, the real impact of his votes was to help elect the Liberals’ Phil Edman ahead of Labor’s Fiona Henderson).
The Herald page linked to above also profiles Christian Democratic Party candidate Henri Chew, and informs us a candidates’ forum will be held at 7:30pm on Wednesday, November 25 (three days before the by-election) at Melville Senior High School’s performing arts hall. There are ads in the paper for Hsien Harper on page one and Peter Tinley on page three, scans of which appear below.
Friday, October 30
The hugely eventful comments thread for this post has made headlines, providing source material for the front page lead story in this weekend’s Fremantle Herald (the Georgatos letter referred to at the end of the scanned article is an edited version of this comment). At issue is the manner in which Hsien Harper was installed as Greens candidate at the expense of Gerry Georgatos, who was preselected earlier in the year when it was felt Alan Carpenter might join Jim McGinty in allowing for a by-election on the same day as the daylight saving referendum in May. Georgatos indicated he was in favour of nominations being reopened when Carpenter did eventually pull the plug, but “party insiders” cited by the Herald say he was “pushed into the decision”. Hsien Harper’s backers got the better of the ensuing preselection meeting, prompting opponents to complain it had been stacked. Georgatos subsequently nominated as an independent, and was promptly forced out of the party.
The sidelining of Georgatos is believed to have occurred largely at the instigation of Lynn MacLaren, member for the corresponding upper house region of South Metropolitan. As the Herald puts it: “About 20 unhappy supporters have since been venting spleens on the Poll Bludger website, with one saying ‘okay, like the others I am a Green – [Lynn] MacLaren and [a] few others knifed him’.” It has been said that Georgatos was felt not to have paid his (metaphorical) party dues; that the campaign might suffer from what one aggrieved comments thread contributor describes as his “outspoken qualities”; and that a candidate with Harper’s union background would in any case be a better bet in a traditional Labor electorate like Willagee.
The dispute also appears to have opened old wounds relating to Adele Carles’s recruitment as candidate for Fremantle at the 2008 election, with some in the party said to have unhappy memories of her as an independent rival to erstwhile upper house MP Jim Scott when he ran in Fremantle in 2005. The nomination of Carles came at the expense of Steve Walker (UPDATE: Or so the Herald reported, but it appears not – see below), described by the Herald as a “founding member” and “loyal warrior for the Greens in various campaigns”. Here too tactical motivations were thought to have been in play, with Carles’s professional background, conservative presentation and young family greatly assisting the party when it sought to win over the Liberal voters who ultimately decided the by-election in her favour (UPDATE 2: The Fremantle Herald confirms it erred in linking Walker to the Fremantle preselection in the next week’s edition – see the entry above).
The ABC’s Peter Kennedy writes about the by-election here, and discusses it here. I’ve also scanned in a full-page Labor ad from the Fremantle Herald – click on the thumbnail to the left for a full view.
UPDATE: Minutes later, Greens convenor Scott Ryan responds:
There are substantial errors of fact in the Herald article that are repeated on your site. Steve Walker did not attempt to pre-select for the State seat of Fremantle in 2008. Adele Carles was preselected unopposed. Steve had already left the party after unsuccessfully nominating for South Metropolitan, choosing to contest that as an independent. Any suggestion that Walker was dumped for Carles is entirely fictitious.
I am not aware of any discomfort over Adele running as an independent in the same election as Jim Scott. She ran on coastal issues and to the best of my memory swapped preferences 2-2. If there are some members who have “unhappy memories” of this, I can of course not rule it out – though it’s nothing I’ve ever heard expressed in years of service to the Fremantle Greens.
As for the remainder of the story, The Greens have not attempted to officially respond to the comments on the site and will not be drawn into debate on that level. Allegations contained within are simply preposterous and delusional.
I have personally maintained communication with Gerry and he maintains that the process was fair and appropriate, and that he was not pushed into re-opening nominations.
I realise that what is said can never be unsaid and perhaps the original posters simply had no idea how damaging their comments would be to Gerry’s campaign and to ours. I am disappointed that the Herald has resorted to cut-and-paste journalism without the fact-checking step in between.
Thursday, October 22
Nominations have closed and the ballot paper order has been drawn, with a modest field of four candidates. Intriguingly, one of the four is Gerry Georgatos, who earlier gave every indication of being relaxed about the re-opening of Greens nominations which ultimately saw him make way for Hsien Harper. The ballot paper order runs Henri Chew (Christian Democratic Party); Peter Tinley (Labor); Hsien Harper (Greens); Gerry Georgatos (Independent).
Wednesday, October 21
The Greens have preselected Hsien Harper, an organiser for the Community and Public Sector Union who ran in Willagee at the 2005 election. Harper was also the party’s candidate for Maylands at last year’s state election, and at the Murdoch by-election earlier in the year.
Sunday, October 18
The Liberals confirmed on Friday they would not be fielding a candidate. The Greens have issued a statement to clarify their reopening of preselection:
The Fremantle-Tangney regional group of The Greens met on Tuesday the 6th of October to discuss opening of nominations for Willagee, selecting a 2-week process for nomination and selection. This process will conclude at a meeting on Tuesday the 20th of October with the selection and announcement of a candidate. Prior to the Fremantle by-election, the Greens chose to not only pre-select a candidate for Fremantle but also for Willagee, expecting a small chance that Alan Carpenter may resign at the same time as Jim McGinty. As this did not occur we elected not to announce the candidate publicly, thinking that it may be seen as an arrogant, provocative or disrespectful move. The candidate selected at the time was Gerry Georgatos. Seven months have passed since the original process, and while there is no question of validity in the previous process, the political landscape has changed somewhat after the victory in Fremantle. Many new members joined in the surge of enthusiasm and the overall chemistry of the party feels a little different. With these issues in mind a proposal was put to the Fremantle-Tangney group to consider re-opening nominations. Gerry himself was joint author of this proposal, stating to the Fremantle Herald (Oct 3) “I feel that I should not hold [the branch] to a decision made seven months ago and would rather ask the members if they want more input. The Greens and I do business differently to the [other] political brands – it’s got to be participatory democracy or there isn’t democracy”. Gerry intends to nominate again as part of the new process.
Tuesday, October 13
Chalpat Sonti of WAtoday reports November 28 has been set by Speaker Grant Woodhams as the date for the by-election (hat tip: Frank Calabrese).
Monday, October 12
The ABC TV news reports, from sources unnamed, that the by-election is believed likely to be held on November 28.
Saturday, October 10
The Fremantle Herald reports Greens state convenor Scott Ryan saying the party will “open up the preselection process again”, despite having preselected “university guild manager Gerry Georgatos” in February when it was thought Carpenter might head for the exit to allow for a by-election on the same day as the daylight saving referendum.
Wednesday, October 7
LATE: Paul Lampathakis of the Sunday Times reports Peter Tinley has been unanimously preselected by Labor’s 16-member administration committee.
EARLY: The ABC reports there are five candidates for Labor preselection: the aforementioned Tinley and Hume, “Labor branch officials” Tony Toledo and Greg Wilton, and Stephen Dawson, former chief-of-staff to Carpenter government Environment Minister David Templeman. Rewi Lyall in comments hears the latter has been endorsed by the party’s Left caucus. Contra the Fremantle Herald, David McEwan is not on the list.
Friday, October 2
The Fremantle Herald reports two further candidates for Labor preselection: Dave Hume, who made a quixotic run against Peter Tagliaferri for the Fremantle preselection and is currently a candidate for Hilton ward in the Fremantle council elections, and David McEwan, an “environmental lawyer involved in the campaign to stop the extension of Roe Highway through the Beeliar wetlands”.
Monday, September 28
Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports Dave Kelly has confirmed he will not be a candidate for preselection. That gives pole position to Peter Tinley, who it so happens lives in Beaconsfield – not in the electorate, but very close to it. Taylor further reports the Greens candidate is expected to be “lawyer and environmental campaigner Graeme McEwan”. CORRECTION: Had the wrong end of the handle here. McEwan is not a Green; Taylor does not say exactly what he is, but I’m presuming he’s a Liberal (although I would have thought it unlikely they would field a candidate).
Sunday, September 27
A report by Paul Lampathakis of the Sunday Times suggests I may have spoken too soon in anointing Dave Kelly as the likely Labor candidate: Peter Tinley, the former SAS officer and Iraq war veteran who unsuccessfully contested Stirling at the 2007 federal election, has confirmed he will nominate, and is the only potential candidate listed in the article. Labor state secretary Simon Mead is quoted saying the preselection will be conducted “within ten days”. The Lampathakis article quotes unnamed Labor figures lambasting Carpenter for not timing his departure to allow for the poll to be held concurrently with the Fremantle by-election and daylight saving referendum on May 16; relatedly, Rebecca Carmody writes in the Sunday Times that Alannah MacTiernan should “do the right thing” and go now so that the Willagee by-election can coincide with one for Armadale.
Friday, September 25
Former WA Premier Alan Carpenter has just announced on the ABC’s Stateline program that he will resign from parliament next Friday. This will initiate a by-election in his safe Labor seat of Willagee, located just down the road from the Poll Bludger’s humble abode in Fremantle. Likely Labor candidate: Dave Kelly, state secretary of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union.
For non-local observers excited by the prospect of a by-election in the seat neighbouring Fremantle, I have assembled a few stats for cold shower purposes. Unfortunately, the census figures are based on boundaries from before the one-vote one-value redistribution – Fremantle’s would still be pretty accurate, but Willagee would have gotten a bit wealthier. “MFY” stands for median family income.
| WILLAGEE | FREMANTLE | |
| ALP 2008 | 51.7% | 38.7% |
| LIB 2008 | 30.9% | 30.2% |
| GRN 2008 | 17.4% | 27.6% |
| ALP 2005 | 47.9% | 43.8% |
| LIB 2005 | 25.1% | 26.8% |
| GRN 2005 | 9.0% | 17.1% |
| Professionals | 17.7% | 29.2% |
| MFY | $1,137 | $1,313 |
| Mortgages | 35.0% | 26.9% |
| Family households | 65.5% | 56.9% |
| Public housing | 33.6% | 19.6% |
Here’s what I said yesterday @729 on the other thread:
[If this actually ever gets near a court it’ll be a pretty interesting case. I suspect, though, that courts are not particularly well equipped to judge whether or not a minor party is technically in opposition, or if the nature of the relationship between the National and Liberal parties (always a fraught subject) is comparable to that between the Greens and Labor.]
Fremantle Herald mentions two more preselection candidates (see post).
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My comment on the proposed highway extension is that the area is to wet for the Roe but to dry for rowing.
Frank, from somewhere deep in the other thread:
[ They’re suffering from AdeleFremantlous Syndrome 🙂 They even think they’ll be winning a by-election where a former premier got a swing TO him at the last election. ]
This is something I was thinking about the other day, actually… Carpenter (who despite dopey mistakes, ain’t so bad as folk make out) had a hefty personal vote which he takes with him. Good at that election, bad in this. The Libs got a 5.2% swing in next-door Cockburn, where they actually bothered to run a decent candidate despite the big fat margin (meanwhile, Fran Logan’s nothing to write home about), so that’s your local landscape. If the Liberals bother to contest the by-election and run a candidate worth voting for (second one’s the hard bit, eh), they could quite easily get a 5-6% swing – they’d get their vote into the mid-30’s and drop Labor to the mid-40’s. It wouldn’t win them the seat, but it would put the Greens back in their box by coming a distant third. Going by the way they’ve just tried to cut the Greens party funding off, they might have that idea… I guess it depends on their strategy.
Then again, they might not have a strategy (these are Libs we’re talking about, after all), and just not bother. In that case, Labor hacks will have cold sweats about the Greens winning (which they really, truly won’t unless Labor completely bugger everything up… I wish they didn’t have recent form for doing exactly that). Good times.
As for you, Tom the 1st:
[ My comment on the proposed highway extension is that the area is to wet for the Roe but to dry for rowing. ]
True, you can’t row there, but it is good for walking around and seeing a relatively undestroyed patch of nature within 50 km of the GPO. Sit around for a while and a quenda might come up and say hi. They’re friendly little critters, as any Murdoch student will tell you. 😉
As for the Roe Hwy: when the new outer harbour get built in Cockburn Sound in 10-15 years, ye olde plans for that road will become less important anyway. Back when I lived in Coolbellup, I got a thing through my letterbox from the City of Cockburn regarding that; a glossy 4 page pamphlet that showed a few different plans for the harbour, all of which involved Rowley Rd or Anketell Rd as the main east-west access roads. That’s all well south of the Roe alignment, so they wouldn’t need to bulldoze a highway through the middle of Hami Hill or between two lakes.
My random idea: put a new passenger train line along that alignment to Spearwood, and connect to Adele-ville. (Yep, Spearwood used to have a train station) Unfortunately we’ve gained the party that closed the Freo line and lost the minister who built the Mandurah line, so you can be assured nothing like that will ever happen until 2013 or 2017. Bugger.
If Tinley is the candidate, I think Labor will have no serious problems. I met him a fair few times during the Stirling campaign and he was a very, very solid candidate. The Green speculation about this seat is really just that – this is far more like the Victoria Park ballot I ran in than the Fremantle one. It’ll be, I’d predict, about the same result – about a 5% swing to the Libs if they run, otherwise a bit more like Murdoch in reverse if they don’t.
(Oh, and the swing would be on account of losing the personal vote, as was the case with Gallop.)
The Western Patriot on the Libs either running or not running a candidate in Willagee.
http://westernpatriot.com.au/2009/10/leak-o-matic-libs-yet-to-decide-on-willagee-2723
From Frank’s link:
[ However, if the Libs stay out of the field and don’t run an officially endorsed candidate, Trish Phelan would be a likely starter as a quasi-Liberal candidate. Phelan is a local councillor at the City of Melville Council and former staffer for Tangney MHR Dennis Jensen. Another anonymous source told The Western Patriot that she has a history working for other parliamentarians in the area. Nothing wrong with that, but all this is a dent in the thin veneer of independence that councillors love parading around in (Phelan is currently standing for election in the Palmyra-Melville-Willagee Ward). ]
Trish Phelan also ran as an independent in the 2005 election in Willagee, on the platform of supporting Roe Hwy stage 8 (it’d get freight traffic off Leach Hwy in her Melville patch, y’see). She got 4.8%, which ain’t too bad. She’d be in this to counter the Greens and the guy standing in front of Alannah, I reckon… Roe 8 is about to become the big issue it should have been a couple of months ago, when it got dragged back out by the Libs. (And, cold sweaty time Frank… remember another local independent who scored about 5% in 2005, then increased her vote somewhat when hooked up with a major party. 😛 )
Meanwhile, Simon O’Brien is transport minister in charge of the thing… his office is at Canning Bridge, so he’s another Melville Council local. Anyone local, you wanna bag weekly copies of the Applecross-Bicton version of the Herald and copy/scan relevant stuff in for the thread? This is gonna turn into the biggest local story since the 2005 election in Alfred Cove, especially with the council elections about now. I wanna see the Herald’s take on it, considering it did so well at covering the hot Liberal-on-Liberal-on-Liberal action a few years back.
Also, I wish the Western Patriot still had comments on their pages – they used to, but then they deleted them all and scrubbed the comment textbox. I was going to email and tell them that little bit extra about Phelan, which would be a useful addition to their post, but if they want my real name in a comment form they can get stuffed. Did they get too much comment spam, or a legal threat for defamation of somebody or other?
[Also, I wish the Western Patriot still had comments on their pages – they used to, but then they deleted them all and scrubbed the comment textbox. I was going to email and tell them that little bit extra about Phelan, which would be a useful addition to their post, but if they want my real name in a comment form they can get stuffed. Did they get too much comment spam, or a legal threat for defamation of somebody or other?]
I think the latter, and the fact one of the directors is curentlybefore the courts re the CCC and Burke 🙂
Bird of Paradox, re: the Western Patriot comments.
I don’t know why they got rid of the comments box. At one stage I wrote a quite lengthy comment correcting some factual errors in one of their stories by a correspondent using the pseudonym ‘Josie le Blond’ about the EU’s progress towards a common justice and security policy.
The comment was not approved, the article was amended removing the errors.
The comments box was removed shortly thereafter, replaced with a ‘Letters’ page.
I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to suggest causality.
Perhaps the editors were being generous: perhaps I had myself made errors in my comment.
Any ideas on how this works?
The Western Patriot has said that the Administrative Committee of the ALP will meet on Wednesday to confirm a candidate, yet nominations with the WAEC close on Tuesday.
Does that mean that all Labor candidates for preselection will have to nominate for the seat and then withdraw in favour of the confirmed candidate?
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What would happen if the ALP missed the close of nominations? I would think that the Greens would be in with a much better chance.
Rewi: If you’re talking about this:
[ On the other side of the fence, a handful of nominations have been received by ALP’s Party Office for the plum by-election endorsement. Nominations close on Tuesday and the ballot of the party’s Administrative Committee will be on Wednesday evening. ]
I’m guessing that’s the ALP’s nominations, not the WAEC’s.
Tom the 1st: That would lead directly to another question: is there a minimum turnout required for an election result to be valid? 😛
Strange as it may seem, that sort of thing has happened before – the NSW seat of Gordon, in the 70’s. It’s Sydney’s north shore, so one of the safest Liberal seats anywhere; unfortunately, the dopey MP forgot to renominate one year, so the DLP won for a term. Won’t be happening here though.
I think everyone’s getting ahead of themselves. No writ has been issued, so there is no date for the close of nominations because as yet there is no by-election.
Antony @ 66
Don’t let the facts spoil everyones psephological fun!
I had a look at the Nedlands 2001 by-election verses nedlands 2001 at the State Election. Looks like a former Premier resigning in opposition loses about 1.5% for their 2CP vote.
That factor could make it line-ball for the ALP on primary votes.
Still since about 20% of Liberal voters tend to prefer the ALP to the Greens, the kind of exciting upset that would give Adele Carles someone to second motions in the LA would require an ALP primary of below 44%. If Fremantle is any guide, an ALP primary below 40% is required for them to be in danger. I think that is extraordinarily unlikely. Then maybe we should wait for writs and the candidates as Antony and others sagely advise…
Without an upset, if the Greens do get the 2CP position and lower the ALP primary vote significantly it would be one to watch at the next State Election.
I wonder whether FFP and/ CDP will run. They ran in State and By-election in Fremantle but not at the State election in Willagee.
I expect the CEC will run. They seem to enjoy By-elections.
67
I believe that the CEC particularly enjoyed the by-election when Joh resigned.
The Nedlands by-election was interesting – showed the Greens’ ability to come second when both major parties are running, eight years before Freo. It’s not really predictive though, as it was so tied up with the forestry debate in the 90’s – Libs for Forests ran as well. It would’ve been pretty funny if Labor had stayed out of that race too in 2001 (the general election) and given Liz Davenport and the Greens a free run… tricky Dicky might’ve got Bennelonged. 😀
According to Wikipedia, there were three by-elections in the first term of the Court govt (analogous to now), all in Labor seats.
Glendalough, March 1994: Carmen Lawrence (former premier) resigned; Michelle Roberts won for Labor.
Helena, Sept 1994: Gordon Hill (former minister, health I think?) resigned, and the Liberal Rhonda Parker won. Both Hill and Parker are redlinked, as are all these by-election… I might do something about that one day.
Kalgoorlie, March 1996: Ian Taylor resigned to have a go at the federal seat (and got beaten by Graeme Campbell); Megan Anwyl won for Labor.
There aren’t any stats for those by-elections on Wiki; Psephos may have them, maybe even the WAEC, but as any other Perthite could tell you, it’s a beautiful sunny day and I’m not sitting in front of the computer any longer. Later. 🙂
Well, not everybody was getting ahead of themselves… I didn’t read the ABC article properly (if I could do one of those blushing emoticons I would).
I have it from a reliable source that former Chief of Staff to David Templeman Stephen Dawson has been endorsed by the WA Left caucus as their candidate for Willagee.
[I have it from a reliable source that former Chief of Staff to David Templeman Stephen Dawson has been endorsed by the WA Left caucus as their candidate for Willagee.]
Hm, more importantly, does he live in the electorate ? 🙂
ABC reports five candidates for Labor preselection:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/07/2706924.htm
Peter Tinley, Dave Hume, Tony Toledo and Greg Wilton and Stephen Dawson.
Is their use of a photo of Tinley in the article an indication that they think he’s got it in the bag? Or just that the others don’t have a public profile like he had from previous campaigns? Probably the latter.
Frank @72, I think living locally is only part of the story. As you know, candidates have won quite good victories without living in the electorate. Jaye Radisich’s win in Swan Hills to take the seat from June van de Klashorst being a pretty good case in point.
I’m told that Stephen Dawson has withdrawn from the preselection contest, and that others may also pull out before this evening’s Admin Committee meeting.
I’m also told that Peter Tinley will be unanimously elected by the ALP Admin committee for Willagee this evening.
[Frank @72, I think living locally is only part of the story. As you know, candidates have won quite good victories without living in the electorate. Jaye Radisich’s win in Swan Hills to take the seat from June van de Klashorst being a pretty good case in point.]
Though to be fair she did reside in neighbouring Woodbridge aka West Midland, and her folks had ties to the Swan Valley and I believe she did spend her early childhood there.
Hmm, this may be an issue in Willagee if the Libs do decide to stand.
[The Australian Nursing Federation has released an email which reveals plans for another 900 hospital jobs to be slashed to meet budget cuts.
The Federation’s WA branch says it received the document from a manager of a frontline department after a budget meeting for the South Metropolitan Area Health Service last month.
The establishments affected by the proposed cuts include Fremantle and Rockingham hospitals, the Armadale Bentley Group, Royal Perth Hospital and the South Metropolitan Mental Health Services.
The Federation’s Mark Olson says the 10 per cent budget cuts represent more than $12 million.
“Effectively those departments are being told we’re going to have to cut back a thousand jobs across the South Metropolitan Health Service,” he said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/07/2707760.htm?site=news
That won’t do the Libs’ chances in Swan and Canning much good, I imagine.
[That won’t do the Libs’ chances in Swan and Canning much good, I imagine.]
Even though it is a state issue you may well be correct 🙂
Ex Perth Now – Tinley wins pre-selection for the ALP 🙂
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,26180977-948,00.html
Greens admit Willagee will be hard to win 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/08/2708887.htm
Oh, don’t get your hopes up, Frank.
There’s no way in hell the Greens will win Willagee. It’s a genuinely safe Labor seat, and it’s not one that particularly leans Green, at least in any way that could see them win. The Greens “admitting Willagee will be hard to win” is much like Labor “admitting that Curtin will be hard to win”. Or in other words – duh?
Shame, though, since if who I think is the Green candidate turns out to be the candidate, I think they’d be a damn good member.
The ABC TV news reports, from sources unnamed, that the by-election is believed likely to be held on November 28.
While not of particular import to the final election campaign, the Greens’ preselection process looks interesting.
Having had reported on the 7th of October that their preselection nominations would be open for two weeks, we then get this additional story about it being open ‘again’ on the 10th. Does this suggest some internal ructions about dumping their formerly endorsed candidate?
And it has been confirmed for the 28th 🙂
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/willagee-byelection-date-set-20091013-gvhf.html
[Having had reported on the 7th of October that their preselection nominations would be open for two weeks, we then get this additional story about it being open ‘again’ on the 10th. Does this suggest some internal ructions about dumping their formerly endorsed candidate?]
Or trying to find someone who can give Tinley a run for his money.
Or trying to find someone who can give Tinley a run for his money.
…you know, for someone who loves to rant about the Greens being overly optimistic, you seem to love playing up the Greens’ chances in unwinnable seats.
I’m sure Gerry Georgatos would be a great candidate – he’s fairly well-known in the area, and I think he would make a fantastic MP. He still doesn’t have a hope in hell of actually winning.
[I’m sure Gerry Georgatos would be a great candidate – he’s fairly well-known in the area, and I think he would make a fantastic MP. He still doesn’t have a hope in hell of actually winning.]
However, it would appear that the Party as a whole doesn’t share that view, right?
Any insight as to who other contenders might be?
Rewi Lyall.
Unless they preselect differently in WA to Vic, it doesn’t matter what the party as a whole thinks.
Preselection is up to the local members nd the local members only. They can be influenced, sure, but that does mean they will listen.
Its possible that Gerry was going to take time off for the general election, but found out he couldn’t get time off until next year? Lots of possible reasons.
Gerry a local?!?!? Far from it! ……I heard that he lives in a well-to-do, leafy, inner, northern suburb…..far from the “Willagee Crowd”.
You’re probably right, Orangefella. Gerry Georgatos, Alma St, Mt Lawley: an address instantly familiar to anyone who reads the Perth Voice. (Maybe the Freo Herald too… William, is this so?) There’s a letter from him in that paper most weeks, in the same verbose style he used to clog up Metior with back in the day. This week’s Voice has him in South Freo for a change, writing about Barrack Obama’s Nobel, followed by “ed: heavily edited for length” – yeah, that’s Gerry for ya. He seems to miss having his own longer-form outlet. (I was an occasional contributor to Metior a few years back, mostly unpolitical stuff like local music reviews / features, until it turned into the Green Left Weekly and I preferred not to be associated with it.) If he somehow gets nominated and wins the seat, his electorate newsletters are gonna be Yellow Pages-sized. 😛
PS: Rebecca, were you on the Murdoch guild at some stage in the last few years? Most people who love Gerry were, y’see. Myself, if I still lived in sunny Coolbellup, that guy would make me have serious second thoughts about voting for the Greens if they ran him. They oughta run Brad Pettitt, but I guess he’s otherwise engaged until this weekend.
Libs not contesting:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/16/2716304.htm
[The Liberal’s State Director, Ben Morton says the party will not be contesting the safe Labor seat.
“The State Executive wanted to make a very early determination in relation to our decision so we can encourage local community based independents to make their decision about their candidacy with all the information possible,” he said.]
Labor will win this seat. Tinley is perfect for the area. Georgatos is a great candidate who one day should get into Parliament but probably never will. Georgatos is one of those types that stands up to people who do the wrong thing. He is loved by many at Murdoch university but has people who hate him because he is so out there, uncompromising. However he has achieved big things.
The suggestion that he is political well isn’t this what you want from someone in politics. Like others I know him and I know he is really articulate, smart and genuinely honest and caring. Yeah he writes lots of letters to the editor and they’re great.
He lived in Fremantle for years and actually lived in Kardinya for something like close to ten years till he moved to Mt Lawley for a couple of years. He is pretty Willagee crowd through and through. Like Rebecca I agree he’d make a great MP and he is very different that he calls a spade a spade. Like Rebecca I agree no one but a Labor candidate can win Willagee. There are not many better than this dude and most people of Murdoch university know this, however there are some that do hate him, go figure! Brad Pettitt is good material but not better than Gerry. It’s a shame he isn’t the Labor candidate, but I think Peter Tinley isn’t bad either, he says a lot of good stuff too.
crimson, Dave suggested @89 that perhaps the preselection process for the Greens was reopened because Mr Georgatos no longer wishes to contest the seat.
Do you know him well enough to tell us if he still wishes to be preselected? If not, his relative merits as a candidate would appear a little irrelevant to the Willagee by-election.
Rew @ 94
According to the Fremantle Herald on October 3:
“Seven months ago the Greens pre-selected Gerry Georgatos, the general manager of the Murdoch University student guild, as their candidate but he is asking the party to re-open preselections.
‘I feel that I should not hold [the branch] to a decision made seven months ago and would rather ask the members if they want more input,’ he told the Herald.
‘The Greens and I do business differently to the [other] political brands – it’s got to be participatory democracy or there isn’t democracy’.”
So it appears its more to do with him being cut of a different cloth than most pollies than anything else. He’ll probably get selected again unless someone who lost a local government election has put their hat back in the ring.
According to the latest Fremantle Herald, reopening preselection was Georgatos’s idea.
In the unlikely event that anyone wants to discuss the council elections, you can feel free to do so here. This is the first council election I’ve voted in since I returned to Perth, and the results in my own ward (City Ward on Fremantle council) have reminded me what a jolly good idea preferential voting is.
GREY-SMITH, Tim 436 35.59%
COOK, Steve 387 31.59%
LAUDER, Les 402 32.82%
I also see that Socialist Alliance firebrand Sam Wainwright, who ran in the Fremantle by-election, has been elected in that hotbed of radical ferment, Hilton ward.
New update added.
Ahh, I just found this. William, might be time for a clickable icon like the Bradfield page? 🙂
Somebody (maybe me?) mentioned Trish Phelan… well, she just got the boot in her ward on Melville council, with 43.76% in a two-horse race. If she was running with the undead Roe Highway as an issue, maybe there isn’t as lopsided support for it in Melville as there supposedly was.
As for preferential voting, some moron from the WA Local Govt Association reckoned FPP voting is better, as it makes it less partisan (whah?). Quote:
[ First-past-the-post is considered to be more transparent and less able to be manipulated by big political parties than the more complex PPV.
“The decision to abandon proportional preferential voting and return to first-past-the-post elections is a victory for the persistence of the Local Government sector and a victory for common sense,” Cr Mitchell said.
“Under the first-past-the-post system candidates need only to win the support of their local community whereas under the PPV system there is a greater focus on running mates and back room deals that mostly suit the organised, larger political parties.” ]
That Cr Mitchell is on the Shire of Murchison, somewhere south of Gascoyne Junction with population ~100, where it’d be a miracle if more than two people actually nominated for a vacancy. I bet he won’t be licking Castrilli’s shoes so much when his little council gets merged into Carnarvon or Mullewa. 😉
That Freo example gets even weirder with the 2-member ward of Cockburn council I’m looking at. Surely this ain’t fair:
MCNAUGHT, Richard 1,149 12.57%
OLIVER, Val 2,595 28.39% (elected)
HOUWEN, Bart 1,924 21.05%
HALL, Cathy 1,244 13.61%
O’BRIEN, Robyn 2,227 24.37% (elected)
Also in Cockburn, they had a referendum where they voted about 2/3 against merging with Fremantle. Makes sense… Cockburn is plenty large enough already, and growing larger all the time with the suburbs around Atwell.
And here’s Peppermint Grove… oh, for god’s sake. Undivided council, 4 vacancies, 6 candidates:
HOHNEN, Charles 329 17.78%
FARLEY, Karen 352 19.03%
KILPA, Paul Nicholas 270 14.59%
PETERS, Greg 336 18.16%
FLEAY, Scott Francis 333 18%
RHODES, Pauline Margaret 230 12.43%
They might as well have drawn names from a hat.
WB @ 96….. “This is the first council election I’ve voted in since I returned to Perth, and the results in my own ward (City Ward on Fremantle council) have reminded me what a jolly good idea preferential voting is.”………I total agree (and more)!
Until LG Elections are compulsory and preferential…… those who can be bothered to get off their butts to vote (ie, the candidates family and friends, loony fringe, malcontents, etc.) will continue to play russian roulette with the rates of those of us who just want our rubbish collected and foot-paths fixed.
I currently feel very “un-represented”.