Morgan: 61-39

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll gives Labor its best result since April: a 61-39 two-party lead, up from 58-42 last week. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 50.5 per cent, the Coalition down one to 33.5 per cent, the Greens steady on 9.5 per cent and “others” back down to 4.5 per cent after a spike to 6 per cent last week. Some quick ones while I’m away:

• The New South Wales ALP has taken a possibly unprecedented move in banning state MPs from seeking federal preselection. Nathan Rees claims this is to prevent unnecessary by-elections – a believable motive for the state government – but is also being interpreted as a move to “stop state MP’s tarnishing the Rudd government”. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports “rumours that the state ministers Joe Tripodi and Paul Lynch have been eyeing off the western suburbs seat of Fowler, while the former police minister Matt Brown has been linked with Gilmore”.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a “growing sentiment” in the New South Wales Labor Party that Belinda Neal should retain preselection for Robertson, due to sympathy over her husband’s misbehaviour together with the fact that she has “worked hard” and “kept her head down” since the Iguana’s incident.

• Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Victorian Liberal chatter that “controversial Baillieu faction honcho” Bruce Atkinson faces a preselection threat in his Eastern Metropolitan upper house region. This threatens to boil over into an “open slather” that could equally threaten Atkinson’s first-term Eastern Metropolitan colleague Jan Kronberg.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

862 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

Comments Page 17 of 18
1 … 16 17 18

  1. [ Who match my usual descriptions of a typical Greens voter

    40% of Freo voters are Wiccan?

    Uh-oh, I mentioned Fremantle.]

    I’m talking National, but Freo is home to a large proportion of Wiccans and Druids, along with the hippies, ferals and assorted arty-farty 2nd Generation Italians who now think it’s cool to non anglecise their Christian Names. 🙂

  4. Diog
    Psephos was right. A big majority of the 2PP by Catholics is for Labor. 50% primary ALP and 29% Liberal is an amazing preference for Labor

  6. [I’m talking National, but Freo is home to a large proportion of Wiccans and Druids, along with the hippies, ferals and assorted arty-farty 2nd Generation Italians who now think it’s cool to non anglecise their Christian Names.]

    You mean like the good Mayor Peter?

  7. Diogenes @ 786

    In Australia I think we are trying a fair few different things but no-one is willing to write of Billions of dollars of electricity assets just yet. I’ve never been opposed to well regulated nuclear but I think it’s time has been and gone. I just wish that we would put a bloody price on carbon or at least commit to putting a price on carbon so that necessity could starting driving some innovation. I suspect that the answer to our problems may lie in coal but burning it or using it in a completely different way to what we do now.

    The Greens have completely written off coal so anything that will prolong it will be opposed by them. They also want their perfect targets and perfect scheme but the delay in getting this doesn’t seem to worry them even though it is delaying action (and consequently innovation). The Coalition are a rabble with half not wanting anything, probably 1/3 agreeing with Labor’s plan but unwilling to publicly say so and the rest undecided because … well because Howie isn’t there to tell them what to think. At least Labor have actually come up with a plan and are apparently willing to implement it.

  10. johncanb

    Psephos was wRONg. He said “vast majority”which is a lot more than 50%. He may have even mentioned a figure of about 75%. I’m sure he’ll tell us soon. 👿

    If you think about it, Australia’s net migration is 210,000 a year. That’s an awful lot of voters. If you rorted the country of origin, you could make a bit difference in a few years based on the religion of the immigrant.

    I’m sure no-one would so Machiavellian as to do that.

  13. The NSW Police have updated their media release with this:

    [NSW Police can confirm a lawyer acting for Mr McGurk did contact the NSW Police Professional Standards Command earlier this year to complain about a police investigation into his client.

    However when the lawyer indicated he did not wish to pursue the matter, no further investigation was undertaken.]

  14. Transporting CO2 for any sort of distance increases the cost enormously. All the studies I’d seen as of c.2 years ago had proximity to storage site as a critical point. In fact, they assumed that power generation would move to new sites based on the availability of suitable geology, since transporting electricity for long distances is much more efficient.

    In the Hunter region in NSW (where at present there is a huge amount of power generated), there are some suitably shaped formations, but they are virtually all heavily faulted and thus unusable for geosequestration.

    That’s one of the problems with fantasy coal- it seems to require enormously increasing the amount of coal transport necessary, since in many cases there is no suitable storage nearby, and piping the CO2 long distances is not (yet) viable.

  17. GG, maybe we’re getting a bit spoilt with high figures poll after poll, month after month (and 55 is the sort of figure any government would kill for). Can’t help feeling that this one’s a bit undercooked though, and your primary figures add more weight to my suspicion.

  19. K

    Agree. The stuff I read said transporting CCS was a non-starter under any circumstances due to cost. It had to be very near the coal plant.

  20. Well, at least Dennis is back to type;

    [KEVIN Rudd’s personal popularity has lifted to a six-month high, despite problems with the economic stimulus spending, rising unemployment and fears of interest rate rises.]

  21. Ah yes, Trubbell at Mill, Dennis has no difficulties with cognitive dissonance due to a deficit in the cognition department.. Dumb as.

  22. Diogs,

    But you have to work for those votes and Labor does.

    It amazes me that John Howard, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, allowed more people from more diverse places to settle in Australia than most of his predecessors.
    Yet Howard is mostly remembered for being anti Asian immigration, a defender of Hansonism and certainly not a supporter of new settlers.

    It’s like he is not particularly proud of his handiwork because it would offend the people who voted for him.

  24. [Alan Kohler, chairman of the book’s publisher Melbourne University Publishing, praised Kelly and his “intellectual journalism”.

    “For journalists Paul is a benchmark and an inspiration,” he said.

    Mr Kohler also paid tribute to The Australian and Editor-in-Chief Chris Mitchell.

    “Under Mitchell the Australian has become in my view the best newspaper in the country,” Kohler said.]

    Well, if that’s the quality of Kohler’s intellect, I’ll be dropping my subscription to his business report forthwith. What an extraordinarily stupid statement.

  29. Kohler is stupid, Trubbel. He declared he didn’t have a clue about what was happening in relation to the global financial fiasco, in public on ABC1 TV News.

  31. No 829

    Harry, nobody did have a clue at the time. It was impossible to forecast with any certainty what would happen. All that was certain was that banks were in meltdown and the stockmarket followed suit in dramatic fashion.

  34. [Kohler is stupid, Trubbel. He declared he didn’t have a clue about what was happening in relation to the global financial fiasco, in public on ABC1 TV News.]

    For once I agree with GP. At least Kohler was honest, although his opinion of The Australian is a mite too honest.

  36. BB,

    His comments about Chris Mitchell are probably tempered by his abject failure as the Editor of the Age. He’s probably in awe of someone who has actually survived.

  38. [Bolshie warrior on 2UE, Mike Carlton, has retired from radio. Excellent.]

    … and was invited back to join the SMH… even more excellent.

  40. GP,

    “Bolshie warrior on 2UE, Mike Carlton, has retired from radio. Excellent”

    Alan Jones chooses to die attached to his microphone. Excellent.

  46. [GP,

    “Bolshie warrior on 2UE, Mike Carlton, has retired from radio. Excellent”

    Alan Jones chooses to die attached to his microphone. Excellent.]

    Ahh, good old Gloria himself – I wonder if it’s composer Umberto Tozzi is wondering where he’s getting all those Composer Royalties from little old Oz ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzDLHcY9nW4

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 17 of 18
1 … 16 17 18