Essential Research: 60-40

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job security continue to steadily improve; and that 59 per cent believe Ricky Ponting should stay on as captain. Also included are some slightly obscure questions on the recent LNG deal with China.

Couple of other things:

Sandringham MP Murray Thompson has easily seen off the only preselection challenge against a Victorian state Liberal MP. According to Andrew Landeryou at VexNews, Thompson defeated “Baillieu faction hopeful” Margaret Fitzherbert by forty-five votes to seven.

• The Camden Advertiser reports that the seat-warming federal Liberal member for Macarthur, Pat Farmer, has his eyes on Labor-held state seats of Camden (held by Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 4.0 per cent) and Wollondilly (Phil Costa, 3.1 per cent). Locally powerful state Liberal MLC Charlie Lynn seems amused by this, suggesting Camden mayor Chris Patterson and Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell have the respected nominations all but wrapped up, although the former says he is not sure he will run.

The Age reports that John Brumby says US-style primaries would “enliven the democratic process”, and are ”something the party should look at”.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate has Labor’s lead at 57.2-42.8.

• Follow the Bradfield by-election action and contribute your thoughts at the progressively updated dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

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  1. o but Oz the Greens claim that the ALP should be their friend at all times and to be good friends they mean do as they want.

    The ALP just like its main opporant knows that the Greens while having an important part to play are still a narrow based party.

  2. “Rudd said he was pleased to be cooperating with the Greens”
    WA gets $4.5m for ‘green jobs’ plan
    [Making the announcement with Greens senator Rachel Siewert and Employment Participation Minister Mark Arbib in Perth on Wednesday, Mr Rudd said the spend of $4.5 million will help the environment while combating the economic downturn. Mr Rudd said he was pleased to be cooperating with the Greens on the national building for economic recovery plan and said the cooperative effort contributed to the nation’s current positive economic outlook….”I am more than pleased to acknowledge constructive support where it’s been delivered….”It would be good if we saw more evidence of constructive and positive engagement in the national political process than we’ve seen so far from various other parties in the Australian parliament.”]

  3. The G’s and the official Opposition have a lot in common: they both want to take votes away from Labor. And to do it, they employ similar strategies of attacking, maligning, frustrating and seeking to undermine Labor.

  4. [o but Oz the Greens claim that the ALP should be their friend at all times and to be good friends they mean do as they want.]

    Pretty sure The Greens don’t claim this.

    [The G’s and the official Opposition have a lot in common: they both want to take votes away from Labor.]

    Shock horror?

  5. Neither shock nor horror, Oz, but fatalist resignation. The G’s and the L’s can posture as much as they like, they really just want what the A’s have got: public support.

  6. 1759…..Glen……”Most people dont vote according to what ‘wing’ they like but rather which group will benefit them the most. Those that vote for minor parties vote for them because they support an issue which is close to their hearts (environment et al).”

    Sure, I agree, things are not simple as left and right wing. It is in fact a bit lazy to use these labels. It is a lot more useful to think of party affiliation in terms of “brands” and of modern politics as exercises in retailing. From this point of view, you can see policies as product offerings and party loyalty as reflecting confidence in the basket of products that are offered to the value-conscious, cautious shoppers.

    This invites other observations, including especially how long it takes to create strong brands and, then, how durable strong brands can be; and how you cannot hope to win market leadership simply buy attacking other brands. You have to have good products on offer as replacements for the alternatives.

    This is more subtle and more susceptible to empirical investigation than using labels and stereotypes.

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