Essential Research: 60-40

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job security continue to steadily improve; and that 59 per cent believe Ricky Ponting should stay on as captain. Also included are some slightly obscure questions on the recent LNG deal with China.

Couple of other things:

Sandringham MP Murray Thompson has easily seen off the only preselection challenge against a Victorian state Liberal MP. According to Andrew Landeryou at VexNews, Thompson defeated “Baillieu faction hopeful” Margaret Fitzherbert by forty-five votes to seven.

• The Camden Advertiser reports that the seat-warming federal Liberal member for Macarthur, Pat Farmer, has his eyes on Labor-held state seats of Camden (held by Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 4.0 per cent) and Wollondilly (Phil Costa, 3.1 per cent). Locally powerful state Liberal MLC Charlie Lynn seems amused by this, suggesting Camden mayor Chris Patterson and Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell have the respected nominations all but wrapped up, although the former says he is not sure he will run.

The Age reports that John Brumby says US-style primaries would “enliven the democratic process”, and are ”something the party should look at”.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate has Labor’s lead at 57.2-42.8.

• Follow the Bradfield by-election action and contribute your thoughts at the progressively updated dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

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  1. Apparently, Kev’s ute has become a celebrity. It is rumoured that 60 Minutes are doing a full blown interview with the ute in the near future.

  2. 5

    If it is up for sale then what are the Chances that the Leader of the Opposition will buy and crush it? He should have enough money.

  3. Joe Hockey’s press conference today was hilarious. He stood in front of a pack of journalists and told them that it would be better for Australia to have higher unemployment.

  4. South Australia has had the warmest state wide winter since records started in 1950. State wide means the average temperature for the entire state.

  5. Shows On,

    Did he exactly say that or are you embellishing the truth somewhat? We all know you have this little exaggeration problem.

  6. And yet the honeymoon is over, says that β€œexpert” Glenn Milne!

    Bushfire Bill had a very entertaining post on the other thread. I tried to post the following at the Oz but they took their bats and balls and weren’t playing today. When you subtract the rusted ons, they may have got a few like this:

    Chin up, Glenn.

    Just one more year of this term and then one three year term after that before an election that your team should be competitive in. The days will fly! A mere 1500 odd sleeps. Then you might be back in the tent and in the inner circle getting the good oil from PM Chrissy Pyne instead of being up the back stamping your feet, drowning and not waving. It will be certainly feel good to again be in a position to ignore the massive failings of judgement that Howard was famous for, ie, WMD, AWB, Kids overboard etc etc instead of having to grasp at those cursed straws every week, hoping against hope that this never-ending honeymoon will finally be over.

    Why is it that nobody that I know seems to want to join your freedom march to rid us all of this troublesome Rudd? The mob all seem strangely content. How can that be, especially now that they have Rudd and Julia have morphed into power crazed Kims? Will they be testing N-bombs next?

    Get a grip of yourself, man. The sky hasn’t fallen in yet and it is not going to. It may have for your career in Canberra, at least for the forseeable future, but not for the country.

  7. ShownsOn! Cleary Joe Hockey has little understanding as too what jobs haave been saved for example the financial sector has not seen the job shredding that some expected partly because of the Government’s policy settings.

    I may be incorrect but the financial sector is a major employer in the seat of North Sydney.

  8. ShowsOn & Beemer
    Hockey and his cohorts will continue to get into trouble with their positions as they ignore the concept of cause and effect.

  9. [Bernard Keane on Twitter:

    PM & Roxon just announced a new GP superclinic for Cockburn. I’m sure it’s painful and embarrassing, but does it need a whole superclinic??]

    Sounds like those soapie stars reading donations on Telethon and mispronouncing the suburb names like Man-doo-rah for Mandurah, and Yokeene, instead of Yokine.

  10. GG, that ute should be made national treasure πŸ™‚
    [Now the ute is hitting the road.

    First stop will be the Bathurst 1000 at the start of October, Grant says.

    The ute will then head out to Deniliquin in the New South Wales Riverina for the Deniliquin Ute Muster, with Grant at the wheel.

    Muster director John Harvie is rapt.

    β€œIt will be great for the thousands of people to see the infamous ute in its glory,” Harvie told the local paper.

    β€œWe look forward to Mr Grant and the ute attending.”

    The Prime Minister has also been invited along.

    Harvie and Co are yet to get a reply.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26005950-5013871,00.html

  11. Vera,

    On Insiders they said that people were paying money to sit in the thing.

    The Movie deal can’t be far away. Herbie the Beetle downunder with the Bute Ute from Ipswich. I suppose it’ll be the ultimate road movie.

  12. It’s an interesting tactic…attack the need for a stimulus package, continually harp upon it not having any effect and then say it should be wound back because it’s so successful.

    The same people who told us it wouldn’t work are now trying to tell us it worked too well and then wondering why we won’t listen to them!

  13. [O my there is so much that could be said! OUCH]

    It should be noted that Cockburn is pronounced as Co-burn – the ck are silent, but then again at least they didn’t announce one in the suburb of Innaloo, which is in the marginal Liberal seat of Stirling πŸ™‚

  14. SO

    [Jones told all his followers to commit suicide so they could reach a utopian afterlife. ]

    Actually they were told it was “revolutionary suicide”. They were told “you can go down in history, saying you chose your own way to go, and it is your commitment to refuse capitalism and in support of socialism. They knew they wouldn’t be coming back.

    Anyway, back on topic.

  15. Sloppy Joe, will wet himself when MYEFO shows St Kev and Lord Swannie spent $43 billion to save $75-$100 billion. πŸ™‚

  16. BK,

    “Poodles Pyne” as the driver brought undone by the “Great Bernardi” putting a banana up his exhaust pipe.

  17. Great work from Joe:

    [It emerged today in a leak that Treasury has advised The Government that withdrawing the stimulus spending would push up unemployment and stall the economy.

    Mr Hockey has accused Mr Swan of “hiding behind Treasury” and says the advice should be released in full to everyone.

    “I can’t recall a situation where Peter Costello as Treasurer for 11 and a half years released to a single journalist protected Treasury advice, let alone using the Treasury as a skirt to hide behind when it comes to major economic policy,” he said.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/31/2672265.htm?section=justin
    Anyone want to see who can find a Leak from Treasury. Probably need to just google any news story a week before every Budget from 1996-2007.

  18. Wow – I go away for a few days and you guys seem to have been having heaps of fun.

    [Sloppy Joe, will wet himself when MYEFO shows St Kev and Lord Swannie spent $43 billion to save $75-$100 billion. ]

    Love that one Rua – Kev and Swannie had better read this and use it. Sloppy Joe says interest rates will be going through the roof and he knows he is always right.

  19. #
    32
    Psephos
    Posted Monday, August 31, 2009 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    I believe Inaloo is a sister city of Dunedoo.

    ….also in a tri-lateral with the NZ town of Dunny-din (aka Dunedin)…..

  20. Of course interest rates will rise – it’s the price you pay for a succesful economy. As long as the Reserve doesn’t strangle the economy, we’ll still be better off than where we would be with low interest rates and really high unemployment levels.

  21. [PM & Roxon just announced a new GP superclinic for Cockburn. I’m sure it’s painful and embarrassing, but does it need a whole superclinic??]
    Can you think of a better reason for a superclinic?

  22. Ponting lost the Ashes because he was saddled with a team that someone else chose for him. Turnbull has no such excuse. He also didn’t use a fake email to accuse Andrew Strauss of ball-tampering.

  23. BH, I was watching the Swans game for you to jump the fence and lend a foot πŸ™‚ did the security guards grab you?

    Oh well. I’m off to see if Julia is smarter than a 5th grader. Gutsy going on that show, some of the questions are curly ones, you stand a good chance of major embarrassment!

  24. I reckon a quite intetersting Australian Political Museum could be set up with Kev’s Ute, Brendan Hair, Ros Kellys collection of Whiteboards, John Howards eyebrows, Downers Stockings, Bob Hawkes Budgie smugglers, Paul Keatings clocks. Malcom Turnbulls ego in a jar…

  25. [Malcom Turnbulls ego in a jar…]
    Only a minute replica of the real thing would fit in a jar – much like a sailing ship in a bottle.

  26. I think we all suspected it and now Nelson has confirmed it:

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/disorder-in-the-house-battle-of-the-narcissists-20090831-f4xb.html

    [“There’s about 5 per cent of the population who are born with narcissistic traits and about 2 per cent have narcissism,” Dr Nelson told The Herald’s Peter Hartcher.

    “[Turnbull’s] got narcissistic personality disorder. He says the most appalling things and can’t understand why people get upset.”]

  27. Brendan’s can of dog food would be better. Now that he’s going, and dumping on Turnbull while doing so, everyone’s decided that Nelson wasn’t so bad after all. But it was his shameless and dishonest stunting about pensions last year that set the tone for the Opposition that Turnbull, Hockey have since followed – cheap and dishonest populist stunts, personal attacks and baseless fear campaigns.

  28. I tried, Vera, honestly tried but my OH was holding me back. Said he didn’t want an old duck, in full bloom, stuck halfway across a fence.!!

    Hung over at the end to cheer Mickey’s O and his tears. A great night out even if we did lose. You had a good one with the Bunnies.

    Everywhere I went the women were reading the Women’s Weekly and swooning about Kev being Mr Darcy. A bit of good PR there for him.

    Fantastic that our PM is surrounded by impressive, successful women as well as men. It’s a credit to us too that he given them prominence.

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