Essential Research: 60-40

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead up from 58-42 to 60-40. The survey also shows opinion is evenly divided on whether the Liberal and National parties should stay in coalition (39 per cent each way); that most believe Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t have enough control of the Liberal Party; that perceptions of job security continue to steadily improve; and that 59 per cent believe Ricky Ponting should stay on as captain. Also included are some slightly obscure questions on the recent LNG deal with China.

Couple of other things:

• Sandringham MP Murray Thompson has easily seen off the only preselection challenge against a Victorian state Liberal MP. According to Andrew Landeryou at VexNews, Thompson defeated “Baillieu faction hopeful” Margaret Fitzherbert by forty-five votes to seven.

• The Camden Advertiser reports that the seat-warming federal Liberal member for Macarthur, Pat Farmer, has his eyes on Labor-held state seats of Camden (held by Geoff Corrigan on a margin of 4.0 per cent) and Wollondilly (Phil Costa, 3.1 per cent). Locally powerful state Liberal MLC Charlie Lynn seems amused by this, suggesting Camden mayor Chris Patterson and Campbelltown councillor Jai Rowell have the respected nominations all but wrapped up, although the former says he is not sure he will run.

• The Age reports that John Brumby says US-style primaries would “enliven the democratic process”, and are ”something the party should look at”.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate has Labor’s lead at 57.2-42.8.

• Follow the Bradfield by-election action and contribute your thoughts at the progressively updated dedicated post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

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  2. Zomster, by that i meant there is no party that the right wingers can vote for if the Libs go back to the center.

    One Nation came and went.

  3. [Nah Frank.

    Its because the salad tossers can’t justify why the Bag Lady told huge fibs. 🙂 ]

    I’m waiting for the usual reaction to that comment, so prepare to put on your Flameproof suit and the sudden appearance of a whole new selection of condiments to defend their bowl of idealogical purity :-).

  5. TP @ 1735
    I couldn’t agree with you more.

    We can’t do things our way in Australia aparently we have do what the Americans would do.
    I reckon people who make anonomous death threats from phone boxes are cowards and if they think they are getting away with it they ain’t going to stop. Let them know the police are on to them and see how brave they are.

  6. I’m up to an ignorant idiot, I’m doing well.

    But back to a right wing green as opposed to a party that claims the right wing vote if the Libs go to the center. Where are they right wing, economically or socially.

  7. I assume socially , because doing something about climate change requires serious changes to the economy, right wingers don’t like change.

  9. Most people dont vote according to what ‘wing’ they like but rather which group will benefit them the most.

    Those that vote for minor parties vote for them because they support an issue which is close to their hearts (environment et al).

  10. Oh come off it Bob! Point to something serious. Bugger a political compass that draws a distinction between psycopathic mass-muderers like Stalin and Hitler.

  11. vera

    Actually, every politician does the same about death threats as they do in the US. They inform the police and don’t publicise the threat.

    That’s why I pointed out that Bligh was doing something highly unusual.

  12. [Glen
    Posted Saturday, September 5, 2009 at 6:19 pm | Permalink

    Most people don’t vote according to what ‘wing’ they like but rather which group will benefit them the most.]

    You think so Glen, perhaps there is a group that thinks society matters, and votes accordingly.

  13. […prepare to put on your Flameproof suit and the sudden appearance of a whole new selection of condiments to defend their bowl of idealogical purity :-).]

    Nah Frank won’t happen. 🙂

    The Green spokesperson on Maritime Issues has proven herself to be a “bender of truth”. Her hyperbole has been exposed, it is not capable of any defense.

    I guess the salad tossers will just ignore it and hope it goes away.

  15. Dear Mr. Byrnes’ service is required here at PB to resolve the dispute between the Greens and Spartacus, sorry Labor Hacks. As long as his methodology is not the schk schk ka boom type as employed the other night. 👿

    [Mr Byrnes, yesterday told The Daily Telegraph he had engaged in “dispute resolution” services on behalf of Mr McGurk. “I was asked to get involved with a view to resolving various commercial disputes, on behalf of clients of his,” he said.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/did-michael-mcgurk-know-too-much/story-e6freuy9-1225769657388

  16. I don’t think most voters give a rats about if something is left or right wing, as Glen said people vote form who they believe will best represent them lets take the Doctors Wifes all very unhappy with John Howard over several things yet come election day many of those people walked into a polling booth and re-elected the Howard Government member.

    When i look though the election results the thing that strikes me is how many areas never actually change, sure there may be the odd election when a seat changes but both major parties heartlands are bascially the same areas as they were fifty years ago while the marginal seats are basically the growth corridor mortgage seats and regional centres.

  17. I like Glen but I luv Spartacus :kiss:

    Just make sure you don’t pucker up to Sportacus from Lazytown by mistake. He’s an extreme-capitalist nutter, and will lead you astray…

  19. [while the marginal seats are basically the growth corridor mortgage seats and regional centres.]

    So the demographic parties should aim for are the young; the old are a lost cause for both parties.

  21. [the old are a lost cause for both parties.]
    I don’t know, they are all due their $30pw pension increase in a couple of weeks aren’t they? There could be a massive swing to labor 😉

  22. Antony Green @ 1634

    Thank you for your detailed & informative reply. Particularly, “The better definition is where Labor trailed on the primary count but won after Green preferences. I don’t have a number on that, but the most seats Labor has won at a single election after trailing is about 10.”

    So those PBs who are hard Labor right please note. Your negative attitude toward the Greens is undermining the longevity of our Labor Government! There will come a time when when our Labor Government will rely on Green preferences to survive!

    Better Green than to be oppressed by the extreme Conservative Right. Just remember there is a natural synergy between Labor & the Greens.

  24. Left/Right. Authoritarian/libertarian. Voters take account of many issues when they get to elections. Such dichotomies only explain part of what is going on but at times they can be important. “Work choices” being an attack on workers rights was a major issue and easily seen in a left right context. Supporting quality public education can be sensible policy for both left (better understanding of sensible policy, social justice) and right (better educated, more productive workers) but in Australia support for private education is more identified with the right. Similarly green politics makes sense across the spectrum although usually stronger on the left.

    Of course it makes sense to understand the differences between Hitler and Stalin or in Australia between Hansonites and Family First, Democrats and Greens, Liberal and Labor etc. That’s the basis of attacking their policies and winning over their supporters. Many issues eg pregnancy terminations, censorship, drugs policies and other issues cut across usual left/right polarities and need different basis for understanding. As shown on PB and elsewhere.

  25. [Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, September 5, 2009 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    That’s why I pointed out that Bligh was doing something highly unusual.]

    Your not suggesting that the anti abortion thing isn’t going well and she is looking for a distraction are you?

  26. Vote1Maxine!

    I disagree with you that there is a natural synergy between the ALP and the Greens for a start the ALP is before anything else the political arm of the Union Movement and while from time to time the child (ALP) disagrees with the parent (ACTU) it knows that it needs to focus on its core hearland and it also knows that to win Government it needs to appeal to several parts of the community including small l Liberals in order to do this they need toi be more open mined than just listening to the Greens.

    fredn! No the older areas are not a lost cause, my point was that if you look at the election maps from federation you will see that most areas do not change their political colour, they may change in other ways but they bascially don’t change politically

  27. [So those PBs who are hard Labor right please note. Your negative attitude toward the Greens is undermining the longevity of our Labor Government! ]

    When the Green members of Federal Parliament start acting like elected officials rather than cast offs from local politics I may take them seriously.

  32. LOL! SBS news reports that Hugo Chavez is facing protests because he is giving the U.S. access to Venezuelan land for army bases.

    It must be hard being an anti-American radical leader without George W Bush around anymore.

  37. [It’s a bit of a worry that the green party can’t tell the difference from an oilslick and algae]

    Vera, they also picked up ONE dead sea snake!!!

    We chomp ten thousands of them in one go. 😉 they are very tasty.

  40. “1784
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Saturday, September 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm…..It’s a bit of a worry that the green party can’t tell the difference from an oilslick and algae ;)……”

    It shows that people see what they want to see. The poor, deluded Senator from WA has always been looking for lost causes and has a great talent for finding them. It would be great if another State would take her off our hands for a term or two.

  41. [Did you read the article, looks like a problem to me. Or are you saying the article is wrong?]

    fredn

    Compare the article to Sen Seiwert’s press release – you will see that it ripped off chunks of it.

    Milne is a failed State Politician, who only got the job becuase she was a political staffer.

    If she refrained from cheap comments like “Contine Polluting Regardless Scheme” and tried to work out a consensus position she may be credible. She has the same credibility as Barnaby Joyce.

  45. [Poor ruawake, he’s been fishing all day to find someone who cares enough about Siewert like he does to talk about her.]

    Hey Oz she is your parties loopy. 😉

  46. To show how big the Grweens are I see Sentator Siewert has been in the senate since 2005 but only now do i notice her.

    Clearly she has played a major role in national debate

  50. [The Secret Service said George W Bush only got 8 death threats a day.]

    That’s nothin’. This arvo, the missus told me 8 times in one minute: “if you don’t get off that f**kin’ computer and pull up the weeds, I’ll f**kin’ murder you!”

    Sheesh.

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