Newspoll: 55-45

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the two-party vote steady at 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote steady on 44 per cent and the Coalition’s up one to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up three to 64 per cent, and his disapproval down three to 26 per cent. UPDATE: graphic here.

Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 60-40 to 61-39. Respondents think Labor and Liberal have moved closer together in recent years, are unconcerned about Malcolm Turnbull’s possible past flirtations with the ALP, believe the government’s stimulus package to have averted recession, and are generally more impressed with the Labor Party than Liberal (“out of touch with ordinary people” up two points to 64 per cent). Their responses on religion suggest the sectarian divide to be alive and well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Next year’s sittings haven’t been done yet. This year the first day was Feb 3 and last year it was Feb 6.

    The redistributions will be finished before December. If the Senate rejects the CPRS or the rebate bill I would expect Rudd to call a March election. The earliest date ever for a federal election was 2 March, which means a dissolution in the first week of Feb.

  2. [ A $4.7 billion project…For that much money you could build the northwest rail line, the southwest rail line and fund various light-rail proposals for the inner-city, inner-west and eastern suburbs.]

    Not true. The budget for the NW Rail Link alone was over $15 billion. I know, because I was VERY active in trying to get the first section – between Epping and Cherrybrook – re-routed so that it didn’t destroy the last stand of virgin bushland (13 hectares, “Beecroft Park” and “Chilworth Reserve”) in Beecroft. They were going to build a 1 acre concrete “ventilation shaft” right in the middle of this beautiful sanctuary, much like the one that HAS been built at the Lane Cove National Park.

    Speaking of the Lane Cove National Park Epping-Chatswood route… it is often thought that the local residents got the line run under the river instead of over a bridge by force of logic and on strict green principles. That’s what they believed: that they had had a great green victory. Rubbish!

    The re-routing under the river meant that the line had to go deeper than originally planned, which meant that the UTC campus at Lindfield would no longer have a station (as the line went too deep under it as it approached the river tunnel). Not having a station was the final nail in the coffin of the viability of the UTC campus. Someone in state Labor noticed this and the campus was put up immediately for “redevelopment”, farmed out a bunch of party donors and everyone was happy. The greenies got their tunnel (at the expense of the ugle concrete facilities block right at the national park), Labor got green cred, and the developers made their squillions. The big issue in the are now is fighting the UTC redevelopment (which has, of course, been declared “state significant”). State Labor’s motto: never give a sucker an even break.

    The assumption by David Charles that the Labor luvvie, Turnbull hating hacks and ant–Howardistas here at PB don’t want NSW state Labor to lose is wrong (at least in my case). I want them to lose so badly they’ll never forget the lesson that’s going to be dished out to them. I’m not at all fond of Barry O-Farrel or his Opus Dei controllers, but I’m prepared to put up with them for aterm or two to get rid of the corrupt, useless, NSW Labor government.

  3. I agree BB. Every Government has its time and the NSW ALP desperately need some time to sort themselves out.

    Also, you’d imagine the Liberals being in Government for a while will give them a renewed sense of purpose.

  4. [Turnbull should give Rudd the finger and say ‘make my day’]

    Turnbull will be desperate for the Govt to hand down a budget before an election so it can use that to campaign on. That may be their only hope to pull back some points.

  5. [That may be their only hope to pull back some points.]

    Doubt it. The voters won’t forget the Labor government’s magnificent response to the GFC by then (or the Coalition’s dismal one)

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