Newspoll: 55-45

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the two-party vote steady at 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote steady on 44 per cent and the Coalition’s up one to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up three to 64 per cent, and his disapproval down three to 26 per cent. UPDATE: graphic here.

Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 60-40 to 61-39. Respondents think Labor and Liberal have moved closer together in recent years, are unconcerned about Malcolm Turnbull’s possible past flirtations with the ALP, believe the government’s stimulus package to have averted recession, and are generally more impressed with the Labor Party than Liberal (“out of touch with ordinary people” up two points to 64 per cent). Their responses on religion suggest the sectarian divide to be alive and well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Grog

    Why do we keep losing to top four sides and choking in finals?

    Why don’t we have a plan B?

    When will Craig not be out-coached in a final?

    I can’t remember being so pi$$ed off with a result in ages. I was happy to lose next week, but losing to Collingwood in a final again after being up by 5 goals truly sucks. 👿

  2. NSW Health is crap. And its problems are not all about money.

    I have an open mind about whether the Liberals will turn out any better, but it’s hard to see why it wouldn’t be worth giving them a go.

  3. Malcy gets 1 point for having achieved the position of Opposition Leader earlier than predicted and thus showing determination and another point for wearing nice suits.

    …Wasn’t it Rann who, when asked about being a ‘professional politician’ replied along the lines of “What do you want? Amateurs?”

  4. [Will a Liberal government in NSW make any noticeable difference to anything? From as far away from the Pacific coast as it is possible to be, it seems to me that the problems in NSW are about money – or rather, about a shortage of it. The problems we hear about – under-invested public transport, over-stretched hospitals, ill-funded schools, inadequate policing, under-resourced child and community services, shortages of public housing – are endemic in all States. They stem from a decade of Howard/Costello direction of tax revenues away from the States and in favour of their own re-election.]

    This must be a joke. A perfect case study of it’s not as simple as blaming Howard is the CBD Metro in Sydney. A $4.7 billion project that has blown out to $5.3 billion before it’s even begun, that the Government’s own consultants said is the wrong solution.

    For that much money you could build the northwest rail line, the southwest rail line and fund various light-rail proposals for the inner-city, inner-west and eastern suburbs.

  5. Dio don’t know. Just know I have an open sore that keeps getting the scab ripped off each September!

    Still at least we keep gettign there.

    Hope the players look at this like the Essendon team did in 1999 when it got beat by a point in Sydney.

  6. [There is no “qualification” for running the Ministry of Defence, for example.]

    Curiously, Fitzgibbon was the only member of the Rudd cabinet without a university degree. So maybe there is.

  7. It won’t matter who is in government in NSW. We are short of cash. How about giving NSW back its real share of GST funding. NSW should get back every cent it contributes.

    How long do we have to keep subsidising the other states? It’s almost as bad as the NRL giving the best players to the Storm to try to promote the game in Melbourne, but to no avail. They keep producing substantial losses year in year out.

  8. Adam

    I hope you haven’t booked your Christmas holidays yet.

    [THE federal government is considering recalling parliament during the Christmas break to push through its legislation to means test the private health insurance rebate.
    Health Minister Nicola Roxon confirmed today the government had sought advice about the technicalities of bringing parliament back in early December.],25197,26066640-601,00.html

  9. [Tina Fey did as much to save the world as anyone (except maybe Katie Couric) by showing Americans that Palin was a dangerous, vacuous loon.]
    Fey should’ve been disqualified on the grounds that she didn’t actually need to write any material, all she had to do was repeat things that Palin actually said in order to generate much humour and entertainment.

  10. Every so often, Diogenes, quite out of the blue, you make remarks so stupid they are best just passed over in silence. What’s that condition where people make obscene remarks in public and can’t control themselves? You have a political version of it.

  11. There will be no extra sitting for the Senate.

    The ‘Government’ can only recall the House of Reps. Recalling the Senate requires majority support of the Senate and Xenophon has already said he won’t be supporting any moves to recall it and I find it hard to imagine the Opposition will.

  12. Actually it’s quite sad really. Here are the Melbourne Storm, about to play in their 4th straight Grand Final, the most financially burdened team in the League, with a free kick to player talent, yet still can’t win a respectable market share.

    The NRL should have the marbles to pull the plug on them. It would be better for the game financially and would free up more player talent for where they rightfully belong.

  13. Bloody hell, we’re not about to enter the utterly surreal world of the feetball world being the same as the political world?

  14. [Every so often, Diogenes, quite out of the blue, you make remarks so stupid they are best just passed over in silence.]

    Which one? Neil Craig??

  15. On the ABC news over here tonight there was reference to some obscure power of the President of the Senate?? It implied that they could recall the Senate even without the numbers.

    Anyone clarify that??

  16. [Neil Craig-caused]

    Yeah apparently he told his team at half time to kick the ball to their opponents and hope they drop it, then swoop on the loose ball and kick a point. Masterful plan if it had come off.

  17. The Constitution (s5) says: “The Governor-General may appoint such times for holding the sessions of the Parliament as he thinks fit.”

    So the Government can summon Parliament whenever it likes. The President will notify all Senators of the date of sitting. A Senate quorum is 19, so the Senate can meet without Opposition Senators if they choose not to attend.

  18. [On the ABC news over here tonight there was reference to some obscure power of the President of the Senate?? It implied that they could recall the Senate even without the numbers.

    Anyone clarify that??]

    The President can do so on receipt of letters from party leaders representing parties totalling a majority of the Senate. So if Senator Evans and Senator Minchin both wrote to the President requesting that he recall the Senate he would.

    Similarly if Senators Evan, Bob Brown, Xenophon and Fielding all wrote to the President he would do so.

    He has no power to just unilaterally call for it though.

  19. ‘Sessions of the Parliament’ would imply that there would need to be a new session. This would mean all the business would come off the Notice Paper. ie the Government would need to re-introduce all their bills, all the committees would need to have their membership filled again etc.

    A huge hassle just so that the Government can consider one package of bills.

  20. Yes and the GG would then need to prorogue the Parliament and then set a date for the beginning of a new session. Then they’d need to go through all the formalities (e.g. Governor-General’s speech etc.)

  21. [When will Craig not be out-coached in a final?]

    The Crows need to do their pre season at Machu Picchu. The lads would get the high altitude conditioning and Craig could spend his time under the Knowledge Tree.

  22. Adam I am not saying that no Hacks should be in Parliament but i do see the value of having ordinary people go into politics without the baggage that a career Hack brings…

  23. That’s certainly not what it says in Odgers Senate Practice:

    [Under this section the Governor-General may terminate a session of the Parliament by proroguing it, and may then appoint the time for its next meeting]

    [Within the term of each Parliament, there may be sessions. A new session is also opened by the Governor-General and begins on the first day of sitting following a prorogation of Parliament. To prorogue Parliament means to bring to an end a session of Parliament without dissolving the House of Representatives or both Houses, and, therefore, without a subsequent election. Prorogation has the effect of terminating all business pending before the Houses]

    The Senate could also refuse to deal with the bills in that ‘session’ if they wanted to.

  24. The last scheduled sitting day is 26 November. The PM does not have to advise the GG to prorogue Parliament on that date, it can just be adjourned until it sits again in December.

  25. So from that i gather they could do it if the Govenor General took advice from the PM that it should happen, OR if enough of the party leaders request for it to happen.

    But if the consitution says “the Parliament as HE thinks fit” can a female GG do it??


  26. [The Senate could also refuse to deal with the bills in that ’session’ if they wanted to.]

    That would constitute “failure to pass”, which in terms of a DD trigger is just as good as rejecting the bill.

  27. [Adam I am not saying that no Hacks should be in Parliament but i do see the value of having ordinary people go into politics without the baggage that a career Hack brings…]
    Ordinary people? How about a small business owner: something salt-of-the-earth like a fish and chip shop?

  28. does anyone seriously suggest recalling parliament will be a big issue in itself? What the opposition will try and say it’s undemocratic to get the MPs to sit and vote?

  29. Ruawake (1788) Perhaps unintentionally, your response to my earlier post, supports what is my observation about PB bloggers and not an ‘hypothesis’ of the outcome of the next NSW election.

    Of course, anything Malcolm Turnbull says and does is regarded as irrelevant by most PBers, because, in their somewhat irreverent opinion, which I happen to share, he is very unlikely to win the next Federal election, and that is assuming he is still the Federal leader of the Liberal Party when such election is held. Accordingly, he is a figure of fun here, regularly pilloried in the safe and, I suspect, relieved knowledge of many PBers, that he will never be a prime minister of this Commonwealth of ours.

    Barry O’Farrell is also mocked here but the tenor of that derision is so different because it is not accompanied with the same confidence of PB bloggers that he will never be a leader in government. The lack of confidence is indicative of the sour and graceless mood of many ALP partisans (but certainly not Judge Growler), as they contemplate the NSW election in March 2011.

    As I said, keep up the good work, and cheers.

  30. [i do see the value of having ordinary people go into politics]

    Being an effective MP, let alone a frontbencher, requires a set of skills that have to be learned. If you want to fill up the Liberal benches with more useless potplants like Pat Farmer and Danna Vale, be my guest.

  31. “Accordingly, he is a figure of fun here, regularly pilloried in the safe and, I suspect, relieved knowledge of many PBers, that he will never be a prime minister of this Commonwealth of ours.”

    Wasn’t John Howard considered in much the same way before he bescame PM???

    Shudder!!! Freaked out stuff of nightmare!!!

  32. It’s dubious reasoning to argue that delaying considering a bill for a few months is ‘failing to pass’ a bill within the intended meaning of the Constitution. It doesn’t say ‘failure to pass the bill immediately’ or ‘failure to pass the bill within the Government’s time frame’. But given that the only person who needs to be satisfied is the Governor-General it’s certainly possible that it could be accepted.

  33. There are several posts this evening regarding the NSW government’s woeful management.

    The NSW Senior Exec. Service is now a psuedo-corporate, egregriously over-remunerated, class of Labor connected obsequists—–they do not actually manage delivery of services as such. Rather they are cheerleaders for whatever propaganda the ministers and their spin doctors hand down. To employ a highly visible federal analogy, think of the woman Howard appointed to run Workchoices who violated P.S. ethics to do pro-Workchoices tv commercials close to an election.

    As well as being culpable for the NSW Public Sevice’s ubiquitous day-to-day dysfunctional organisation failures, the incompetence of the SES ultimately leads to major tragedies such as the rail disasters at Glenbrook and Waterfall.

    When higher SES mandarins retire, they are rewarded with the sweetest sinecures in the country as Labor’s hand-picked administrators for sacked local councils. Extremely dubious charges of “incompetence” are often given to justify these power grabs——how farcical when the politicians doing the sacking as well as their appointees are themselves veritable paragons of incompetence.

  34. By December it will already have been delayed for three months. Not passing it in December means delaying it until next February. Given that it’s a budget measure, that there is a large deficit already, and that we are in the midst of a GFC, I think Rudd could make a very good case for a DD. The main argument against is that Rudd has no mandate for it, which is true, but he can reasonably plead force majeure.

    However, if Rudd does recall Parliament in December, I don’t think the Libs will dare reject it or “fail to pass” it, for the same reason they will pass the CPRS bill in November – they know that they’d be smashed at an early election.

  35. Adam the Libs will be smashed regardless, at least making Rudd call an early election gives the Libs something to use against them and the public hate being brought out for an early election to satisfy the ego of the PM :D.

    Turnbull should give Rudd the finger and say ‘make my day’ 😀

  36. Classic put-down by Swan last Thursday – from Hansard of QT

    “Mr Hockey interjecting—
    Mr SWAN—He goes, ‘Oh, terrific.’ The headline
    on page 4 is ‘Liberals vow to slash public spending’,
    until he nearly choked on his breakfast doughnut because
    there beside it on page 5, is ‘Senate votes down
    $1.9bn health cuts’. That is the rabble that those opposite
    have become.”

  37. When is the first scheduled sitting next year?

    If the Government cannot get a majority of the Senators to agree to pass the legislation then there is not much point in getting the Senate to come back before the NSW and Qld redistributions are finished so that a DD could be without hastily drawn up seats to meet the population basis for representation of each state?

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