Newspoll: 55-45

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the two-party vote steady at 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote steady on 44 per cent and the Coalition’s up one to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up three to 64 per cent, and his disapproval down three to 26 per cent. UPDATE: graphic here.

Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 60-40 to 61-39. Respondents think Labor and Liberal have moved closer together in recent years, are unconcerned about Malcolm Turnbull’s possible past flirtations with the ALP, believe the government’s stimulus package to have averted recession, and are generally more impressed with the Labor Party than Liberal (“out of touch with ordinary people” up two points to 64 per cent). Their responses on religion suggest the sectarian divide to be alive and well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. When was the last time a Liberal member crossed the floor to defeat Liberal legislation? (When in Government).

    I think Barnaby Joyce did on a TPA bill. But it is a very long time, from my memory that a Liberal did it.

  2. ruawake 1744

    If the Libs do oppose the private health rebate means test it will also make a mockery out of every word they say about reducing debt. Opposing revenue measures will be indefensible, especially if our final debt turns out to be much lower than feared, adn probably lower than teh $180 billion (from memory) we were headed for if Turnbull’s recession strategy had been adopted. Credibility zero.

  3. To clarify 1752, if our final debt had wound up worse than the Libs claimed for their approach then they could have said that they wouldn’t have had to repay the debt Labor ran up because theirs would have been smaller.

  4. [‘We’ll be whiter than white’ – O’Farrell
    September 13, 2009 – 1:34PM

    NSW opposition leader announces anti-sleaze campaign with an unfortunate choice of words.

    Coalition ministers will avoid personal scandal or face tough consequences, Barry O’Farrell said today.

    Speaking after announcing a raft of sleaze-busting policies the party says are needed to restore integrity to the state government, Mr O’Farrell says he is confident his ministers would be whiter than white if elected to govern.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/well-be-whiter-than-white–ofarrell-20090913-flzg.html

    Yes, bring back the White Australia Policy. Is Barrell OFarrell also suffering the Fielding’s disease? This is the man who wants to the Premier of the First State.

  5. Last week varoious Libs were still saying Labor’s debt was 300/310 bil $s
    They won’t be liking these apples.
    [AUSTRALIA’S recession-defying economy looks set to deliver the budget a massive $17 billion annual cash windfall, slashing the likely size of the deficit and level of public debt by up to a third.

    Amid growing optimism about the outlook for the economy, private sector economists predict the Federal Treasury will be forced to sharply upgrade its budget forecasts when it releases updated figures this year.]

    [Grattan Institute program director Saul Eslake agreed that the budget deficit would likely be about $40 billion – still a large figure, but a level of debt far below that of comparable countries.

    RBS chief economist Kieran Davies said it was clear that predictions about the budget – with deficits of $187 billion over the next four years – would need to be pared down because of stronger than anticipated growth and lower unemployment.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/budget-windfall-from-economy-20090912-flhi.html

  6. Apologies if this has been posted – but I couldn’t see where anyone had.

    Van Onselen runs his examiner’s eye of the ALP front bench (I’ve cut out the commentary):
    [FIVE OF THE BEST

    Kevin Rudd: . 9/10

    Julia Gillard: . 9/10

    Craig Emerson: . 8/10

    Stephen Smith:. 8/10

    Kate Ellis: . 7/10

    Honourable mentions: Lindsay Tanner and Greg Combet.

    FIVE OF THE WORST

    Bill Shorten: . 5/10

    Wayne Swan: . 5/10

    Nicola Roxon: . 4/10

    Joel Fitzgibbon:. 3/10

    John Murphy: . 1/10

    Dishonourable mentions: Harry Jenkins and James Bidgood.]
    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,26065179-5005371,00.html

    I don’t agree with many. His assessment of Harry Jenkins woild have you think he has not watched much parliament for the last 20 years.

    That he had to go down to Parl Secs and Fitzgibbon to get 5 “poor performers” does say a lot though.

    Emerson above Tanner?? Ellis above Tanner??

    Again he runs with the line that Swan is the “worst Treasurer since Kerin”. Yep Asutralia has stayed out of recession in the midst of the worst world economic conditions in 50 years. What a waste of space that Swan is.

  7. That list is strange!

    Wayne Swan has grown into the Treasury role, i think in the firtst six months a 5/10 would have been a fair score but with the strong performance of the economy Swan should be at least a 7/10.

    Lindsay Tanner has not put a foot wrong therefore he shoudl also be scoring around an 8/10

    I think he has over rated Stephaen Smith.

    Roxon has improved as Health Minister.

    I think Jenkins has done a very good job as HoR speaker.

  8. [Amid growing optimism about the outlook for the economy, private sector economists predict…]

    “Private sector economists predict”?

    We’re doomed.

  9. [Van Onselen runs his examiner’s eye of the ALP front bench ]
    Would you trust the judgment of someone who commissioned Julie Bishop for a contribution to a book?

  10. As lone as the private sector economist is not Chris Richardson for i cannot remember the last time he got a prediction correct.

  12. The next Community Cabinet is in WA, Van Onselen is probably trying to sling a bit of mud before the locals can judge for themselves. Shorten has been one of the stand outs at the CCs I’ve saw.

  13. According to the article, Rudd is all spin, no substance and Swan is one of the worst Treasurers ever…yet somehow we have managed not just to ride out the GEC but to perform economically better than anybody predicted.

    If that happened without any input from the PM and Treasurer (one too busy spinning and the other being totally incompetent) then why do we need them at all?

    Van Onselen doesn’t get many points for clear thinking here!

    I also like the paranoid explanation for Shorten not being a Minister. I personally, from long observance, think that it is always a mistake to promote someone to the Ministry when they have no experience in Parliament. If I can make such a judgement, I’m sure Rudd can too.

    So I don’t think Shorten being given more junior roles is a sign that Rudd is afraid of him(he has far more reason to fear Julia and he seems to go out of his way to promote her). I can’t think of anyone who was elected at the last election who has been given a Ministry (prepared to be wrong on that one!) — that doesn’t mean that Rudd regards all of them with fear and loathing!

  15. [private sector economists predict…]
    Of course, some other economists predict the exact opposite, and some economists are something in between.

    Logical fallacy – argument by false authority.

  16. When is PvO going to nominate for Parliament for the LP. Given all he has said about their need for new blood, he should put his money where his mouth is.

  18. Liberals still lazy:

    [‘Soft’ asylum policy blamed for boat arrivals
    Posted 5 hours 24 minutes ago

    The Federal Opposition says the Government’s approach to asylum seekers has put people smugglers back in business.]

    Interest rates, debt and now asylum seekers. As long as it’s an old scary message, regurgitate it.

    Saves time and paper issuing new policies.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/13/2684354.htm

  19. [When is PvO going to nominate for Parliament for the LP. ]

    Nice point. He’s creating the need and then using himself to fill the vacuum.

  22. Oh, and here is my list (pre empting Van Onselen) of the Coalition’s best 5 and worst 5…

    Peter Costello – knows to quit while he’s ahead. Has done nothing in Parliament in the last two years, making him a stand out performer. 5/10

    Brendan Nelson – one of the funniest straightmen ever to grace the Parliamentary floor. Who can forget sitting in a gutter at 3 am in Kings Cross? the mum, dad, six children and the wheelchair in the Tarago, queueing for hours on a Tuesday night, only to face the anguished decision — fill up the tank or eat steak?? 6/10

    Bronwyn Bishop – female impersonators don’t often make it in politics, so she should be given marks for effort. 5/10

    Tony Abbott – again, sheer entertainment value. If it’s not the ears, it’s the shit eating grin. Doesn’t seem to know anything about his own portfolio, but is across all the others, so extra marks for being the perpetual understudy. 6/10

    I can’t think of anyone else, so four it’ll have to be.

    Worst performers (I could simply list the whole of the party, but am using for my criteria people who other people have actually heard of–)

    Malcolm Turnbull – obvious, really. Noone with so much potential has done so little with it, so quickly. 2/10

    Joe Hockey – looks like everyone’s favourite uncle but it’s just a cunning disguise. 1/10

    Chris Pyne – everyone hates the person who, at every meeting, chimes in with ‘Point of order!’ every five minutes. Usually, however, they do have a point. 1/10

    Warren Truss – the invisible man. If the Coalition was in government, this man would be Deputy PM!! Doesn’t this trouble anybody? 1/10

    Julie Bishop – honestly, it’s like shooting fish in a barrell. At the start of this government, the Opposition brought cardboard cut outs of the PM and Julie Bishop into Parliament. Noone has cottoned on to the second one. I assume the real JB is off sunning herself in the Riviera. 1/10

  23. Peter Dutton – only because he has mastered the art of calling press conferences when he knows the press gallery will ignore him. 0.3/10

  24. [Opposition and Liberal National Party (LNP) leader John-Paul Langbroek said the Greens had helped Labor win the last election, and the end result was the green light for the Traveston Dam.

    “This is a dam that will be bad for the Mary Valley, it’s going to be bad for the environment and bad for the budget,” Mr Langbroek said. ]

    Naughty J-P 😛

  25. Can someone help me with the mathematics of the medicare rebate for people with incomes of more than $150,000. As I understand it, if you pay say $3500 for hospital insurance you save $1050 by getting a 30% rebate. If you opt out of private insurance (as the opposition is insisting will happen) you will pay an extra 1% of whatever you and your spouse’s income is greater than $150,000. At $150,000 this is $1,500 and as the combined income increases above $150,000 the more you would have to pay. So why would those who earn $150,000 or more opt out of private insurance? Have I got something wrong or is the opposition just looking after the more affluent and being obstructionist just for the sake of it?

  26. I too have problems with the numbers,and content myself with the bottom line: a saving to the budget of $2.9 billion.

    Somewhere out there, some high earners are working the system.

  28. Glen! you over use the word hack, today political parties don’t have large membership bases as shown by Sandringham only having 52 members or Kooyong having just 600 members.

    Our political parties have generally put in a piss weak effort to recruit members

  29. [Great the Libs give Wannon to a Hack (Tehan) instead of a successful business person (Mitchell).]
    But of course factionalism had nothing to do with it because the Liberal party doesn’t have factions.

  30. [Our political parties have generally put in a piss weak effort to recruit members]

    And when they do they are then accused of stacking branches.

  32. [Malcolm Turnbull – obvious, really. Noone with so much potential has done so little with it, so quickly. 2/10]

    What did he do to get 2 points, zoomster? 😀

  36. I note some of the comments on recent PB threads about the “inadequacies” of Barry O’Farrell and the “too right wing” NSW Liberal Party. Indeed, the ‘comment’ of The Finnigans @ 1754 is a recent example.

    In this regard, I suspect that the NSW Liberal leader would be pleased, even amused, if he ever visited this echo chamber. He must be annoying, and worrying, ALP partisans, because it is always a reflection of the ALP’s (good) prospects of winning the next election election, when the leader of the other side is regarded as irrelevant by ALP supporters, and hence no risk (perish the thought) of being a premier of a State or even a prime minister of this Commonwealth of ours.

    Barry, of course, can’t be irrelevant anymore in NSW, if PB commenters care enough to label him, with characteristic vitriol, as a boring windbag with no policies, or words to that effect. There is, without doubt, no surer barometer of the (sour) mood of ALP barrackers on the state of play in NSW than some of the comments on these PB threads, so I will continue to monitor the musings here on The Barrell, with interest, up until the election in March 2011. Keep up the good work guys.

  38. [He must be annoying, and worrying, ALP partisans, because it is always a reflection of the ALP’s (good) prospects of winning the next election election,]

    You are seriously worried that the Libs won’t win the next election??

    Everyone here has taken it for granted that the ALP will lose. So if you feel the need to keep coming here to get the inside dope, go for your life. But I don’t even know what percentage of PBers is from NSW.

    I’m not, but I think O’Farrell is a complete loser who is going to win the next election by default.

    How’s that for a big scoop?

  41. Glen (at 1776) I don’t know anything about the Wannon candidates, but the experience of having a successful businessman elected as the current member for Wentworth probably hasnt been too flash for the Liberal party. Maybe a “party hack” might have been better 😉

  43. Dan Tehan is the daughter of Marie Tehan, and I’ve always thought that she was the daughter of Senator Tom Tehan. But just now I asked myself, if that was so, then Tehan was her maiden name, not her married name, so why is her son called Tehan and not his father’s surname?

    So I looked up her condelence debate in state Hansard, and I found that in fact Tehan was her married name, and that she was the daughter of Frank and Alice O’Brien. Her husband is Jim Tehan. I looked up Tom Tehan’s condolence in federal Hansard, where his children are named, and Jim is not one of them. So in fact Dan Tehan is not Tom Tehan’s grandson. However one of Marie Tehan’s grandsons is called Tom, so maybe there is a connection.

  45. Glen – and the Liberal Party as a whole – has a fixation about “hacks.” The seem to think that gentlemen amateurs can just walk into politics from business or the bar and succeed without ex[perience. In fact business leaders have a terrible record when they try to become politicians. “Hacks” are people who actually have political knowledge and experience. Politics is a profession, and as with any profession, it takes time to learn it. I’m sure Glen prefers his doctor, his tax accountant and the person who flies the plane he travels in to be qualified professionals rather than gentleman amateurs. I feel the same about the people running my government.

  46. Will a Liberal government in NSW make any noticeable difference to anything? From as far away from the Pacific coast as it is possible to be, it seems to me that the problems in NSW are about money – or rather, about a shortage of it. The problems we hear about – under-invested public transport, over-stretched hospitals, ill-funded schools, inadequate policing, under-resourced child and community services, shortages of public housing – are endemic in all States. They stem from a decade of Howard/Costello direction of tax revenues away from the States and in favour of their own re-election.

    Until the states have a permanently better way of matching their revenues to the expenditures expected of them, they will always be in trouble.

    The assessment the voters will have to make is really at two levels: who, if any one, can try to fix the meta-problem in state revenues; and who is more likely to better manage all the day to day problems you have when there is just not enough money to do things as well as they should be done….

  48. [I’m sure Glen prefers his doctor, his tax accountant and the person who flies the plane he travels in to be qualified professionals rather than gentleman amateurs. I feel the same about the people running my government.]

    I’ve recovered enough from my Neil Craig-caused depression to comment.

    That’s a pretty spurious analogy. There is no “qualification” for running the Ministry of Defence, for example. You need a whole lot of skills which can’t come from anything except doing the job. Being a shadow minister is a bit similar but you don’t have a whole department to run.

    That being said, lawyers and doctors who haven’t run a big business would be less likely to have the skills needed than a life-long politician.

  49. [I’ve recovered enough from my Neil Craig-caused depression to comment.]

    Harsh – he couldn’t do anything to stop Rutten hanging on to the bloody arm… and why couldn’t the players bottle the ball up for 20 more seconds? And why… aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaauuuuuuuuuughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    this pain will never end.

  50. briefly (at 1795)

    Not to take away from the mismatch of revenue/expenditure argument, but a not insignificant issue is the [choice] made in expenditure. There does seem to be endemically poor decision-making on cost-benefit analysis.

    Example #1…the Chatswood-Epping railway, a project that has been in planning for years. The bridge over Lane Cover river is changed to a tunnel. Benefit? Well, I am sure the river valley looks nicer (though bridges can also be made attractive). Cost. Depth required for the tunnel results in elimination of a station, noise issues because design parameters have changed, poorer ongoing operations, longer time to build and vastly increased cost (my faulty memory points to $500m odd extra; let’s say half a new hospital). Example #2…a metro subway under 2 major bodies of water from Martin Place to Rozelle???? Ignoring infrastructure reservations that again have been in place for yonks.

    Public administration in NSW is lousey at resource allocation.

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