Newspoll: 55-45

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has the two-party vote steady at 55-45, with Labor’s primary vote steady on 44 per cent and the Coalition’s up one to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up three to 64 per cent, and his disapproval down three to 26 per cent. UPDATE: graphic here.

Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 60-40 to 61-39. Respondents think Labor and Liberal have moved closer together in recent years, are unconcerned about Malcolm Turnbull’s possible past flirtations with the ALP, believe the government’s stimulus package to have averted recession, and are generally more impressed with the Labor Party than Liberal (“out of touch with ordinary people” up two points to 64 per cent). Their responses on religion suggest the sectarian divide to be alive and well.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Please… can we get by without the usual Greens v. “Labor Hacks” punch up for a while?

    Noted that Shanahan’s commentary in the OO says the government is under pressure on interest rates. Huh?

  3. [Please… can we get by without the usual Greens v. “Labor Hacks” punch up for a while?]

    But I’ve been a good boy in the last 10 hours or so 🙂 And the only bite has been a good humored exchange over the residential profile of Fremantle 🙂

  6. [BB,

    Julia Gillard is also under pressure. It’s true, it was in the Murdoch press.]

    Especially being not smarter than a 5th Grader – bet that will be dragged out tomorrow in QT.

  13. [No 10

    Tasteless GG.]

    That’s a bit rich considering your comments directed at the Good Senator from South Australia who is of Chinese Extraction.

  29. Loathe as I am to start this drivel up again … “Do they have CC filming in NSW Police Stations?”

    Yes, the front desk tapes are kept for a very long time. From personal experience(a happy one) a minimum of 6 months. (apparently, that’s the rule)

    Although I guess you could argue they didn’t expect it to be requested in my case 😀

    If he walked into ANY station in the last few months, its on tape at the front desk. Or somebody is in the …

  30. Gloom persists abroad. Deflation, apparently, is still a serious risk according to some analysts:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

    “CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, and -0.6pc in Germany.

    This was not anticipated by the authorities anywhere, so we should be wary of their assurances now that we face nothing more than a brief dip in prices before rising energy costs bring inflation back into familiar and safe territory….

    ….. The fiscal crutches of recovery are going to be knocked away, with outright tightening in a slew of states nearing the danger point of debt-compound spirals. This will occur in a world where excess capacity is already at post-War highs. It reeks of deflation.”

    This is hardly a re-assuring assessment of the economic outlook. If you think of rising energy prices as acting like a tax, then the rebound in oil prices this year is going to have a contractionary effect on the wider economy. Once again, at the risk of becoming tedious, fiscal stimulus remains vital to supporting demand in the economy.

  33. From previous thread:

    [Police have interviewed a NSW MP. Apparently McGurk tried to enter parliament two days before he died.]

    I also heard from a good authority that McGurk tried to enter heaven two days after he died. he was asked to try hell first.

  34. GG 748 previous thread

    For all those writing off Labor in NSW, Antony Green provides the requisite cold shower. Seems current polls are within error margin for either a Labor victory or a Labor coalition with Independants. Seems like the Libs have plenty of work to do still.

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/09/nsw-2011-electoral-pendulum.html

    Looking at this in a slightly different way. Plotting the individual seat margins, the NSW election pendulum is much more “V” shaped as compared to the Federal “U” shape; there are relatively few marginals in NSW compared to Federally.

    For example (using Antony’s site and excluding independents), if LNP were to achieve an average 4% swing they would only win an additional 5 NSW seats – about 5% of the 93 seat House and insufficient to form government, at least in their own right. In contrast, the same swing Federally would deliver the LNP 17 additional seats (11% of the House), and government with a healthy majority.

    Or the other way, a 4% swing to Labor would deliver just 2 seats in NSW, but Federally no fewer than 18, or 12% of the House.

  35. Just a key sentence from the ER report:

    “The most significant lead Labor has over the Liberal Party is in the area of having a good team of leaders (+30%), looks after the interests of working families (+28%), and understands the problems facing Australia (+18%). Liberal has the strongest lead over Labor in the area of divided (33%) and out of touch with ordinary people (20%).”

    There’s your current ball game right there . . .

  36. [Not only had the previous government been just as incompetent as this one, Gillard continued, but it had been just as self-centred and boastful too.
    …
    Suddenly, there came an intervention from the very rear of the Opposition benches.
    “Two wrongs don’t make a right!” blustered Wilson Tuckey, at top volume.
    …
    The house fell silent.
    …
    What does one say, when Wilson Tuckey authors a genuinely sensible remark?]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/roles-reversed-in-slushy-squabble-20090907-fegt.html?page=-1

    Two good points in one passage of classic Crabb.

  41. Hi Laocoon,

    You make my point. The Libs seem to have a structural problem with the spread of their vote. Contrary to some of the Jeremiahs here at PB, Labor is still competitive despite their support being at a historical nadir.

    A small increase in Labor support over coming months will make a Labor victory or hung Parliament the most likely outcome.

  43. Thanks Oz, I’d never noticed before today (although I’ve noticed some other amusing tab headings on News articles where I suspect the IT sub editors aren’t towing the usual News line).

    Pretty lazy work from News – you’d think they would have a dedicated Newspoll interactive page.

  44. Laocoon and GG,

    I suspect that there will be quite a few independents elected in in NSW at the next election or at least figure prominently in a lot of seats making TPP and current first preference polling figures pretty useless. The ALP will undoubtedly take a hit but I’m not convinced they won’t have the numbers to form Government with a couple of Inds.

    Unless the NSW Libs come up with some decent policies (or really anything other than ‘we’re not Labor’) they won’t get the swing they need.

  45. Frank

    I think Julia is pretty safe for not being smarter than a 5th grader. How many people would know which author died in 1991 shortly after releasing his last book “The Minpins”?

  46. Dyno,

    A better question is to name the 11 seats the Libs will win off Labor to form Government in their own right and then look at the swing required to achieve same.

  47. I think the point is (as Dave said) that analysing the swing on a 2PP basis is probably useless – there will be lots of seats where Independents play a significant role and with OPV this makes it very hard to express the required outcome in terms of a 2PP swing.

    However, I would guess (and I admit it is only a guess) that the Liberals are going to win this time. I reckon when the swinging (or slightly Labor-inclined) voters are given a choice of another four years of this, or not, they’ll go for “not”.

    Agree however that the Libs need to lift their game to make sure of it.

  48. Turnbull and the OO are desperately looking for another of BB’s magic bullets to get at Rudd’s Government.

    [And there’s no doubt that Canberra fully appreciates that the murk enveloping the state risks seeping through the border to stain federal Labor’s still shiny image.

    The very notion that Richardson – a man normally desperate to avoid contributing to his media profile these days – is so determined to publicly dismiss the significance of the tape should set off plenty of alarms. ]

    [The connections with federal Labor are certainly going to seem irresistible to the federal opposition given that the former NSW party secretary, Mark Arbib, is now a federal minister, and a key supporter of Kevin Rudd, while his immediate successor in NSW, Karl Bitar, is now national ALP secretary.]

    [“The NSW Right is the key element in the Labor Party today, they are the ones who have mismanaged NSW and they have a big say in Canberra,” the Opposition Leader announced in another weekend TV interview.

    “If you want to see where Australia will end up in 10 years under Labor (nationally), just look at NSW.”

    That, certainly, is not a good look.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26040040-5013945,00.html

  50. Hi GG

    Yes, that is what these numbers would suggest. Interestingly, this characteristic is not evident in the NSW Federal seats, where the (arbitrary) 4% swing, would see about 11% of the NSW Federal seats change hands (both ways).

    Perhaps voters distinguish between Federal and State (probably). I have also been speculating whether the population in the electorates (about half the size for State) would make any difference; I doubt it at these sizes, but unfortunately, my statistical competencies are not what they ought to be

    Dave 55/dyno – agree independents may make the analysis tricky; perhaps more so this NSW approach of optional preferential??

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