The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.
Showson
Europe has a bigger economy. Unless the USA decides to invade China ( Bill Clinton suggested it is a real possibility, as the USA will not enjoy being overtaking economically) a weak military has no economic consequence. Military power is not economic power. Europe has the largest economy, the USA the largest military. Done them a lot of good hasn’t it? Cost them a lot of money, made them a lot of enemies.
China is going to face difficulties, they may get through them, they may not, Australia will be better of if they do, but we will see.
Can anyone imagine the French, Germans and Poms sitting down to agree to anything without a year of nitpicking? The EU can be an economic power but not a world power until they get rid of the Italians and Irish.
And don’t even speak of the Dutch.
[This makes no sense. The reason the U.S. has a huge military is because it has a massive economy. It may only spend a few points more of its GDP on military, but it has such a huge economy that those extra points equate to hundreds of billions of dollars.]
per capita the Ottoman’s were outstripping the europeans at least 50 to 1
they also suffered the hubristic sense of technological superiority
[What declining economic fortunes? The United States economy is the same size as the other top 4 economies put together.]
The ottoman’s economy was at least 20 times larger than the europeans.
All i am saying is that Current status is no real indicator as to Future status
The USSR being the most salient and latest example of
“the sick man of europe syndrome”
[China is going to face difficulties]
#51 – do tell?
Gus, pre Ottoman, but very interesting. you might want to download this podcast from BBC
[In 680, near Karbala in Iraq, a man was killed in the desert. His name was Husayn, and he was the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. His death was a crucial episode in the growing split between two groups of Muslims – who would come to be known as the Sunni and the Shia.]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/iot/
or as Yes Minister put it, the typical EU official…
[has the organizing ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans, and the modesty of the French. And that’s topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch and the intelligence of the Irish]
[In 680, near Karbala in Iraq, a man was killed in the desert. His name was Husayn, and he was the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. His death was a crucial episode in the growing split between two groups of Muslims – who would come to be known as the Sunni and the Shia.]
and let’s not mention the druze
😉
[you should talk to the Indians. they prefer China than their own “democracy” that only money can buy. how romantic.]
What absolute rubbish. 400m people just voted in the world’s biggest free election ever, and they threw most of the Beijing-admirers out, even in West Bengal. The strength of Indian democracy is one of the most hopeful things in the world at the moment.
Showson
As I said in the beginning Europe has worked out how to expand it’s territory without force, looking at past failed attempts to unite Europe doesn’t alter the fact. They are expanding their territory and they are not using force.
I am not arguing that Europe is a Military super power, they only have enough Nuclear Weapons to protect Europe, they don’t have enough to blow up the world and they don’t have the political structure to use them, that is their strength.
Once again I ask you look at which political/economic structure is expanding it’s borders, which is burning gold for no return.
[All i am saying is that Current status is no real indicator as to Future status]
Gus, have i told you this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.
God ask me for a joke the other day, so i told him about my future plan.
👿
[Europe has a bigger economy.]
But the E.U. isn’t a single country with a single government and a single military and foreign policy.
Also, countries in the E.U. tend to spend less in GDP terms than the U.S. on their military, so they don’t have as good technologies.
[Unless the USA decides to invade China ( Bill Clinton suggested it is a real possibility, as the USA will not enjoy being overtaking economically)]
GDP per capita in China is about $4000, GDP per capita in the U.S. is $40,000. The U.S., per capita, is 10 times richer.
Even if China grows 10% every year, it will take at least 40 years for it to match U.S. wealth. And that’s of course assuming they don’t have some sort of massive economic collapse and / or political upheaval.
[Military power is not economic power. Europe has the largest economy, the USA the largest military.]
Remember, Europe isn’t a country, it can’t choose to use its military power in a co-ordinated way without dozens of countries agreeing.
[Done them a lot of good hasn’t it? Cost them a lot of money, made them a lot of enemies. ]
Well of course it has done them good, they are the richest country in the world with the most advanced technologies in the world.
I guess you are right it has made them a lot of enemies, like the non-existent Soviet Union, Cuba, Iran, North Korea.
On the other hand, the U.S. has a lot of powerful allies, like the U.K., Germany, France, Canada, Australia, Japan, you know, the other countries that have GDP per capita of $35,000 or more.
[China is going to face difficulties, they may get through them, they may not, Australia will be better of if they do, but we will see.]
I think it is highly unlikely that China will grow at 10% a year every year for the next 4 decades. As with the Soviet Union, ultimately the massive inefficiencies caused by the corrupt political structure will drag the economy down.
[What absolute rubbish.]
Herr Doktor, obviously, you dont many Indian friends. 😆
Other than access to economic resources, what is there? That is my whole point, your focused on guns and guts, Europe has worked it out, access to resources is all that matters.
fredn, let’s suppose there is another nasty little war in the Caucasus, and it becomes necessary to threaten the use of force against Russia. You know as well as I do that the EU would hold summits and argue and pass motions and wring their hands, that Russia would threaten to turn off their gas if they did anything, that they would wimp it, and that utimately it would be the USAF that went and bombed Vladikavkaz and the Marines (supported only by the Brits and the Poles) that would go into the Caucasus to sort out the Russkies.
Very true, one country only has to follow to grow, the other has to come up with new ideas. If chine get’s access to the resources and doesn’t fall over politically it will grow. Australia is only too happy to sell them the resources, that is what we do.
[As I said in the beginning Europe has worked out how to expand it’s territory without force,]
There is no such country called “Europe”. The European Union was designed to force countries to cooperate with each other instead of invading each other. It is silly to treat it as a country, when most E.U. countries only trade with each other, at the expense of other countries like Australia.
[They are expanding their territory and they are not using force.]
Who on earth is “they”? Also, other than buying Alaska from the Russians, the U.S. hasn’t expanded its territory using force since it killed a heap of American Indians.
[I am not arguing that Europe is a Military super power, they only have enough Nuclear Weapons to protect Europe, they don’t have enough to blow up the world and they don’t have the political structure to use them, that is their strength.]
This makes no sense. France or the U.K. could use nuclear weapons if they wanted to, and the E.U. parliament would have absolutely no power to stop them.
[Once again I ask you look at which political/economic structure is expanding it’s borders, which is burning gold for no return.]
A political/economic structure is not a nation state.
Adam do you like being called Herr Doktor?
[Very true, one country only has to follow to grow, the other has to come up with new ideas. If chine get’s access to the resources and doesn’t fall over politically it will grow.]
China is growing because it embraced capitalism.
But it is still an overwhelmingly poor country. And I refer to my earlier comments, compared with what the Soviet Union did in its first 60 years, China has an absolute basket case military based on old and pre-existing technologies.
Friday Happy hour on SBS: Footy Chicks
Glen, I neither like it nor dislike it. I’ve been called worse things.
[Adam do you like being called Herr Doktor?]
we are not here to please
Just been through that haven’t we, Europe needed the gas, Russia needed the money, a lot of noise but it worked out a hell a lot better than the mess in the middle east is my judgment, and it cost all parties a hell of a lot less money. Europe has learnt to be patient.
If Turnbull survives until the next sitting is he safe?
[If Turnbull survives until the next sitting is he safe?]
Safe in the sense that he will get to live out his life long dream of failing utterly at the next election.
[Adam do you like being called Herr Doktor?]
Glen
the use of von possum,herr doktor and wilhelm or othersuch is meant without malice or intent
Sometimes
😉
I can;t see him going Glen. All the Libs have pretty much admitted they have no one else.
Ah default; as Homer would say, the two greatest words in the English language.
[Europe has learnt to be patient.]
It also sat by doing nothing when Slobodan Milosevic was conducting ethnic cleansing.
It took the United States to sort that out via NATO, because the E.U. was too gutless to do anything about it.
De Fault! De Fault! De Fault! De Fault!
Mista Gus?
I’m not arguing against capitalism. I am arguing that being a military super power costs and gains you very little, if the USA doesn’t attack Chine the state of the Chines military machine doesn’t matter zip.
That is a moral judgment, not an economic one.
I suppose you are right in one respect, fred. Great powers have learned in the past sixty years not to launch all-out attacks on other great powers. The EU is not under threat by anyone, and all EU members are protected by the others. (Don’t forget, however, that they are also protected by the US alliance, not that many of them are happy about it.)
But China has not bothered to assert its dominance against anyone besides Tibet, and that poor place is hardly a power. While it is thought to be exerting some small influence on Burma and Vietnam, it wouldn’t dare make a move against Taiwan for fear of American firepower. Now that may change in 10 years, but China’s complete lack of influence over Nth Korea speaks differently.
I’d certainly like to see a moderate group of superpowers arise in the future, but we are stuck with the US and China. India will be a superpower in the next decade, but remember they have nuclear weapons too and absolutely hate their neighbours. The EU should merely be added to the US juggernaut. The Chinese are inscrutable as ever.
Then there’s the Russians and the Indonesians. They are the true gamebreakers.
[I am arguing that being a military super power costs and gains you very little, if the USA doesn’t attack Chine the state of the Chines military machine doesn’t matter zip.]
It doens’t cost you much when your economy has a GDP of $16 trillion.
If China doesn’t spend more on its military, then the U.S. will remain the world’s only superpower, it’s as simple as that.
Anyone know the line-up for Lateline?
I want to know whether to top up my Red and wait, or crawl off to the land of Nod
Chatsworth result is going to be the subject of an appeal by the LNP candidate.
[ALLEGATIONS that the Labor Party rorted the result in a state election seat will get a public airing after a Court of Appeal decision today.
Defeated LNP candidate Andrea Caltabiano lodged an appeal against a decision which saw her challenge the election result in the state seat of Chatsworth dismissed.]
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25692984-3102,00.html
There’s emus on Foxtel.
[But the E.U. isn’t a single country with a single government and a single military and foreign policy.]
I am glad to see that Fredn is forcing the historians to change the focus of the debate. Fredn clearly stated that the EU was becoming the largest economic power, something in the future, not the past. The detractors are now arguing that it isn’t true because it is not a single nation, it doesn’t have the biggest militaria etc etc. Get back to the point that Fredn originally raised – that the EU is fast becoming the largest economic power.
Tom.
Countries that spend more, in GDP terms, on defence than the U.S.:
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Jordan
Israel
Yemen
Armenia
Eritrea
Macedonia
Burundi
Syria
Angola
Mauritania
Maldives
Kuwait
Turkey
Salvador
Morocco
Singapore
Swaziland
Bahrain
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brunei
China
Greece
Chad
U.S. (4.06%)
Australia spends 2.4% (same as the U.K.) but that is going to increase.
Surprisingly, France spends 2.6%
[Then there’s the Russians and the Indonesians. They are the true gamebreakers.]
MTW, dont forget the Mongolians. Remember them, they used to rule the world. their time will come again. you know, the cyclic thing.
[MTW, dont forget the Mongolians. Remember them, they used to rule the world. their time will come again. you know, the cyclic thing.]
There just waiting for someone to pony up.
🙂
marktwain
I’ve seen it argued that Chine leaves North Korea alone because it’s doesn’t want a bigger mess on it’s door step.
Indonesian is a democracy and the sane thing for Australia to do is to engage with it economically, as much as possible, learn the lesson Europe have learnt.
[that the EU is fast becoming the largest economic power.]
I don’t think it is an economic power, because most countries in the E.U. only trade with each other, but have protected economies when trading outside of the E.U.
Also, “economic power” is a silly term, a country with a big economy that can’t defend itself isn’t a power, i..e it can’t make other countries change their behavior via diplomacy or force.
[Indonesian is a democracy and the sane thing for Australia to do is to engage with it economically, as much as possible,]
That’s exactly what we have been doing for the last 20 years.
But in our military planning we should have a contingency in case it is taken over by an authoritarian or nationalist regime.
I’ve seen Mongolian ponies on Animal Planet. They are nowhere near as scary as emus.
[Indonesian is a democracy ]
ah, the Indfonesians are now our friend, what happens to the Imans of JI from Jakarta Menteng where Obi was trained as their Manchurian candidate.
[What absolute rubbish. 400m people just voted in the world’s biggest free election ever, and they threw most of the Beijing-admirers out, even in West Bengal. The strength of Indian democracy is one of the most hopeful things in the world at the moment.]
Ahhhh such naivety.
So what. Not much use really is it, 4.06% of GDP ( which doesn’t include the $1 trillion US dollars spent on the iraq war) wasted unless it brings an economic advantage, I’d be happy to hear what it is.
[Ahhhh such naivety.]
Oz, do you have to be so unkind?
All countries have their religious nutters, if you don’t believe me spend some time in the deep south of the USA.