The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).
UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.
Two news nuggets to go:
• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.
Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.
[Well…..have you?!]
Yes, I sent my report to Mr Swan’s home fax.
[I think it is Abetz. Hockey said very specifically that he had not spoken or met Gresch since the election.]
It is lawyer talk, that could just mean they communicate by email, i.e. they don’t use the phone, or meet in person. 😀
Tp,
Go back to yesterday’s posts from 2550 and read on a bit. All explained.
BB and Shows On,
I’m sure there are many lies, sins of omission and economies of the truth. However, Abetz fits Cuppas 3187.
Kit @ 3146 Nothing wild about that theory, Kit. As I posted on Bernard Keane’s “Godwin Grech, John Howard’s go-to man” , http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/25/godwin-grech-john-howards-go-to-man/ my reaction to Grech’s IMO over-acted Senate appearance was “Scared Weird Little Guy”, then Gollum – a sneak, whose “Precious” under Howard’s government, was his own power, and that of the Prime Minister into whose good grace he insinuated himself – possibly even JH himself as well as his office.
Grech has been a Treasury mole for years, and his intel went straight to the top. He’s diligent, even nit-picking. He’s odd, a loner, who doesn’t get on well with co-workers (he lasted only a short time in Hockey’s office). Seemingly, he’s also an accomplished masquerader and liar and, almost certainly, the man who set up a very nasty sting to frame two men who took away his Precious – his high-status relationship with Prime Minister Howard. In addition, he’s small, thin and looks frail. He’s going to look the victim if ever he’s caught, and those who challenge him, big bullies.
Very probably coached (possibly given some of that “friendly advice”) by Abetz and barrister Turnbull to make the most of his alleged poor health and stress, he turned on a routine that struck me, from the first, as straight out of over-the-top USA comedy but for one significant characteristic – he looked small, frail and downright pathetic. I’ve seen people genuinely stressed off their brains, I’ve seen plenty of fakes and I’ve seen people caught out over something serious pretending to be on the point of having a heart attack/etc. Watch the fingers, watch the eyes. I’d like a few top police interrogators to watch the tape and report back.
If you’ve had to get your head around psych, especially organisational psych, ask yourself which profile GG fits.
Bernard Keene’s latest piece
[Rudd, a PM with “four-in-the-morning courage”
by Bernard Keane
However the fake email saga plays out, it has provided a revealing contrast in leadership styles between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.
Simply put, Rudd played a blinder this week. While launching a devastating counter-attack on the Opposition and pulling his Treasurer to safety under cover of its fire, he managed to wow the Spanish royals, continued selling the Government’s schools spending package and, by week’s end, shift back to his regular agenda of nation-building and the economy.
Every Government question in Question Time yesterday, until Tony Burke’s little epilogue on harming cats, was about its normal agenda. Rudd used the Opposition’s own questions to savage them and Turnbull. Tony Abbott looked almost cowed when he tried to ask about an Age beat-up involving John Grant, stressing he was seeking information only and not making any accusations.
It’s clear that Rudd has what Civil War historian Shelby Foote called, in relating to U.S. Grant, “four-o’clock-in-the-morning courage”, a capacity to deal with the worst news at the worst time with coolness and detachment, not merely working out how to respond to it but how to turn it to his advantage. In retrospect, Rudd’s performance last Friday evening, when he launched the Government’s defence and raised doubts about what we learned 72 hours later was a faked email, was critical in laying the groundwork for the siege of Malcolm Turnbull that this week turned into.
……….]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/26/rudd-a-pm-with-%E2%80%9Cfour-o%E2%80%99clock-in-the-morning-courage%E2%80%9D/
Abetz is Shadow Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research and Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Senate
[Rudd used the Opposition’s own questions to savage them and Turnbull. ]
This is very true. If anyone listens to the Q.T. replays of this week, by Wednesday and Thursday Rudd was treating opposition questions as if they were Dorothy Dixers.
Comments in Crikey today have a woman, obviously from Hockey’s electorate, mentioning him using a table-top truck plus another for his staff or whatever during his campaigns.
Would he have registered that on his Paliamentary List.
The Libs have now set a precedent. Will any of them be game enough to take the loan of a vehicle for campaigns from now on.
The MTAA bloke said many dealers/car yards loan vehicles to pollies for elections plus they loaned the Libs one for the ‘Foreign Debt Truck’ in 1996.
From the Pm’s letter it is clear that Poland is the winner in the growth stakes. Interesting a friend of mine went to by some futurist George friedman. According to him the super powers in the next 100 years would be USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey. It’s starting already
went to a talk that is
Michael Jacksons personal physician, when asked about the cause of the stars death, replied “I blame it on the boogie”
Boom Boom 🙂
Psephos you forgot shadow minister for silly talking and speech impedemants
[the next 100 years]
Well, I for one won’t be here to see if this eventuates.
Funny Tom that’s what Sharpelle Corby said in her defence
Morgan 55-45
[super powers in the next 100 years would be USA, Japan, Poland and Turkey.]
Japan’s population in 100 years will be about half what it is now. The country will be inhabited mainly by pensioners and robots. The super powers of the coming century will be the US, China and India. Second order powers will be the EU, Brazil, Korea, Indonesia, maybe Russia if they can sort their government out, maybe Japan.
“but actually, without a real email from Charlton (we only have a faked one), how did Grech know Grant was “connected” to Rudd?”
Because the real one, before it was doctored, would be on the servers, their backups, and almost certainly still on Charlton’s computer & his back ups.
See my post #3128 points 1, 2 …
I’m waiting for one of the Lib media stooges to blame Rudd for Grech’s ill health, overworked him to death etc
[Is Senator Abetz a frontbencher? Pardon my political ignorance, but I thought a frontbencher was from the House of Reps, ie a senior Shadow Minister.]
This sort of House arrogance irks me. There is no difference in status between being a minister in the House of Reps than being a minister in the Senate.
Morgan – polling took place BEFORE Monday’s QT
Rudd Government support drops as “Utegate” emerges as issue
ALP (55%, down 2%) ahead of L-NP (45%, up 2%)
Federal Poll : Finding No. 4393 : This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekend of June 20/21, 2009, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 897 electors. Of all electors surveyed, 3% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. : June 26, 2009
In late June 2009 ALP primary support fell 2.5% to 46% and L-NP support rose 3% to 41% the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekend of June 20/21 shows. If a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would retain Government.
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 55% (down 2%), while support for the L-NP is 45% (up 2%).
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8.5% (up 1.5%), support for Family First 1% (down 1.5%) and Independents/Others 3.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 134.5 (up 3.5pts) with 58.5% (up 1.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is “heading in the right direction,” compared to 24% (down 2%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”
Morgan is before this week’s adventures.
This Morgan Poll, taken on the weekend (June 20/21, 2009) after Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull called for the resignation of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan over the “Ute-gate” affair shows a tightening in support between the two major parties — although the Rudd Government still holds a significant two-party preferred lead (55% cf. 45%).
“The initial focus of this affair was Malcolm Turnbull’s attack on the Government’s credibility — asking Rudd and Swan to resign for apparently misleading Parliament — subsequent revelations have brought that line of attack into question.
“The next Morgan Poll, now being conducted, will give a clear indication of how the events surrounding “Ute-gate” have affected the standings of the Federal Government and Opposition.”
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4393/
I see the Government Confidence Rating is up BEFORE the last good economic news was released.
http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years-Forecast-Century/dp/038551705X
Argue with him psephos i am sure he has good reasons
GG, snap!
Labor could have lived quite comfortably with these numbers but I think there are better numbers not far away.
Betcha SkyNoos remark on the Morgan poll. They very rarely do but they probably will this one.
And yes Vera – that lousy PM works the PS too hard. Pity that my kids are having a ball working hard.
Would it be correct to say that this shift was not statistically significant?
Interesting to hear commentators now referring to Rudd’s courage. Remember the Insiders episode a few weeks back where the panel were commentating on how he was visibly shaken when Turnbull first raised this Grant thing in Question Time. Of course he would have been shaken, and why not; he saw at that moment that Turnbull was threatening his political life. Shaken, understandably, but a cowardly pushover: not the Ruddster.
Adam, thanks for the explanation at 3206.
Family First 1% (down 1.5%) guess Fielding didnt catch too many CC deniers 🙂
I note also that the Green vote increased 1.5%
Futurology is bunk. Remember Herman Kahn, Paul Ehrlich? Wrong about just about everything.
Yo Ho Ho,
The result is within MOE so yes.
However, most here might speculate that the events of the weeks may have overtaken this particular poll and make it a little redundant.
[The super powers of the coming century will be the US, China and India. ]
Did you see this week’s press club address? The fact there will be three super powers will create huge problems for our defence force. Do we still rely on the U.S. for our security? Or do we try to form a more independent defence posture?
Hugh White thinks that if we keep spending the current amount on defence, then given the rise of China and India, our military will in effect be like New Zealand’s, we will be totally reliant on the U.S. to protect us.
Alternatively, if we are willing to spend another 1% of GDP on defence, we could produce a defence force capable of being a significant deterant on our own terms, without requiring the U.S. to effectively protect us.
[Of course he would have been shaken, and why not; he saw at that moment that Turnbull was threatening his political life. ]
I don’t think it was fear. I think it was righteous anger.
So some former FF members are now playing pan pipes and dancing naked at midnight on beaches around the nation?
I hope Jasper has a minder then. Jasper is First Cat.
There is a theory about people who do bad things to animals in their youth.
[he was visibly shaken when Turnbull first raised this Grant thing in Question Time]
He was visibly ANGRY, and visibly struggling not to do his block.
[ Is Senator Abetz a frontbencher? Pardon my political ignorance, but I thought a frontbencher was from the House of Reps, ie a senior Shadow Minister.]
[This sort of House arrogance irks me.]
What arrogance? I admitted front up to ignorance.
[Japan’s population in 100 years will be about half what it is now. The country will be inhabited mainly by pensioners and robots.]
They could counter-act this by starting a proper immigration policy!
ShowsOn it’s the Polls and Turks we have to worry about. Once the Pols relieze we haven’t embraced catholosism and the Turks realise how many Greeks live in Aus they will both start to rumble.
and kev loves his cat
[I don’t think it was fear. I think it was righteous anger.]
Apparently when Rudd was sitting at the table before replying to Turnbull’s speech on Monday he was mumbling to himself, saying how hopeless the opposition is.
[Interesting to hear commentators now referring to Rudd’s courage. ]
Rudd would have been furious of course. Doubt he would be shaken, he is no newbie and been in many stressful situations ( like the last election).
We have mentioned how well Rudd has handled himself many times in here. His now has his first battle scar. I think for Russ it really is of what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, because he does learn. For Turnbull it is whatever doesn’t kill you makes you angrier.
[They could counter-act this by starting a proper immigration policy!]
Too true. They seems to think that ‘be Japanese’ is an immigration policy.
Maintain the rage, Kev.
“In the 1970s and 1980s . . . hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.” (Paul Ehrlich, 1968)
[They could counter-act this by starting a proper immigration policy!]
They could, but they won’t, because they hate the idea of sacred Nippon being contaminated by foreigners. They would probably be happy to have westerners settle in Japan, but of course that’s not where they would get migrants from. They despise other Asians – Chinese, Koreans, Filipinos etc.
The first time the Libs went after Rudd (I think over the Scores episode), it was noticeed that Rudd was shaking when he mounted his defence.
This was seen by the Libs as evidence that Rudd was weak under pressure, unsure of himself etc. and has encouraged the Libs to maintain the personal attacks on Rudd as the weapon of choice eever since.
That it has been raised again this week shows that although Rudd may indeed be nervous when under sustained personal attack, that he is thoroughly organised and disciplined enough to overcome these fears. Furthermore, that he is more than capable of giving stick in return.
s next d
Rudd
When cats seek vengeance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qudSho30Zw&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Ficanhascheezburger%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded
[I don’t think it was fear. I think it was righteous anger.]
For a stir, I submitted a comment to a Steve Lewis article on the weekend saying that the ‘shaky hands’ were the adrenalin rush of a big game fisherman who had just hooked a prize catch. Dont think it was published though.
Which day was the email announced as a fake? I had it in my mind it was Saturday. Correct?