Newspoll: 53-47

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since the election of the Rudd government, with Labor’s lead at 53-47 – its narrowest since the 52-48 election eve survey, and essentially the same as the actual 52.7-48.3 result. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 41 per cent, the equal worst result since Kevin Rudd became leader (the other occasion being October last year, shortly after Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership) and solidly below the 43.3 per cent election result. The Coalition primary vote is 40 per cent, the first time this figure has had a four in front of it since the election.

A somewhat different story from Essential Research, which for the second week in a row finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43. Also featured: perceptions of the government’s handling of the financial crisis (good), expectations of Australia’s economic performance over the coming year (mixed but somewhat optimistic), reaction to Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation (muted), whether the Greens should support the emissions trading scheme legislation (yes, sort of), whether unions should campaign for more industrial relations reforms (ditto), and whether the government is doing enough to support working people (lineball).

UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Explanations for Labor’s decline evidently can’t be laid at the feet of the Prime Minister, who has gained two points on approval (58 per cent) and dropped two on disapproval (31 per cent). Interestingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings have continued to rebound: his approval is up a handsome four points to 44 per cent while his disapproval is down three to 37 per cent, his best set of figures since early February. Preferred leader is basically unchanged with Rudd on 57 per cent and Turnbull on 25 per cent (up one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,568 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  4. [
    jaundiced view
    Alright look, I have sighted documentary evidence that there is the Goebbels quote, but I did not produce it. I have looked everywhere and haven’t found it, but I say it exists. OK? On that basis you can have your beer Flaneur. Cheers.
    ]
    Good enough for me JV. (Though, obviously, I have a vested interest).

    But the real question is: in 12th Century Europe (or region therein), what was the expected yield of hay (in trusses per acre or units that can can yield the aforementioned units) of dedicated meadow? The best I can come up with is 0.9 tons (I assume long) of hay per acre.

    Damn the Habsburgs! The oxen need feed!

  5. [The Copenhagen world will probably go for a nominal around 17%-20%.]
    Boerwar – How do you see the Copenhagen meeting addressing the required 2050 targets for stabilisation at 450-550 ppm CO2, if the 2020 target ends up being that low? You are basing your forecast on the US current position are you?

  9. Mike Steketee in The Australian today was having a rant against climate sceptics and how they were talking rubbish and holding back the real debate – how to make the cuts we need.

    Here’s an idea Mike – get your paper to stop giving them oxygen.

  13. [Excellent article by Piers Ackerman]

    An oxymoron if ever I heard one

    [I encourage all to read it:]

    I’d rather poke my eyes out with a blunt stick

  14. Patrick old son, if you consider anything Akerman writes as being worth reading, you are intellectually compromised. Goodnight.

  16. Interesting discussion on ABC Radio National about a Greens bill to require parliamentary approval before we go to war.

    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2009/2603320.htm

    A link to the bill is there, and it’s detailed. Much broader than just “Parliament has to say ok before you go”. Clarifies something the Democrats bill didn’t back in 1980’s about what would happen if Parliament wasn’t sitting and there was an emergency.

    Also requires the government to regularly report to parliament about the aims and outcomes of what’s going on.

  17. Patrick Fogarty
    [Excellent article by Piers Ackerman, who quite frankly takes nearly everyone on this blog to task]
    Does he now? How intimidating. Next time I see him at the Byron Bay writers festival I’ll have it out with him, if David Marr and others leave him alone enough for an opportunity for others to kick his ‘shins’. He’s usually found in the garden lounge of the Beach Hotel during that event.

  19. PF, Ackerman’s article is just recycled hot air. The simple question is: where is the evidence that Rudd or Swan did anything improper in relation to Grant? There isn’t any. Do you have some? Does Ackerman? Does Turnbull?

  20. Oz that is just stupid…yes lets wait for Parliament to say whether or not we should go to war…god you Greens have lost the plot!

    Yes Oz let’s also air all the details of our plan of attack that will really make the ADF happy!

    Thank god you Greens will never run the country…

  21. Flaneur

    Crikey, that does not sound like much hay to me but I suppose pasture improvement was not big in those days.

    I suggest that you have some huge variables on your hands: It all depends on:

    1. The season – there were some terrible bad runs in those days.
    2. Unlike grain, whether you have any data that would allow like-to-like measures. You might be able to do some implied work using straw as substitute (because you will probably have more accurate measures of grain yields.
    3. The particular meadow – soil types were much more important in those days because hay yields were not being boosted by fertilizers.
    4. What had been done on the paddock in previous seasons (see 3).
    5. Bad luck – battles were bad for haypaddocks.
    6. What your neighbour was up to, particularly if he was strip farming.
    7. Pests. Chemicals were not big in those days.
    8. Aspect and the amount of sunlight would have been very important.

    Anyway, I would be interested in whatever you come up with.

  24. I read it. He pointed out that the Senators trying to keep Grech quiet wasn’t a good look. My take on that was that they were just trying to keep Grech from committing suicide in front of millions of people, which turned out to be good advice.

    Everything else Piers said was just that he didn’t like Swan or Rudds answers and everyone else should agree with him. He’s got bupkis.

  25. JV

    Having to telescope achievement of targets, with consequent amplified economic disuption and social costs, is a Bush/Howard legacy.

    Ditto for the way in which 2020 outcomes will feed into 2050 targets.

  26. Diogenese

    Ministers/Committee Members will often take on the heat at estimates and will shield public servants from patently political posturing on the part of the Opposition.

    Ackerman probably did not notice any of this in the 11 years of the Howard/Costello Government but it was routine.

  27. 3373:

    He also pointed to the scores of other emails that were released which apparently compeltely undercut everying Rudd and Swan have said so far. We all knew that, but none of you think it’s particularly important for some bizzare reason.

    Tomorrow’s a slow newsday. The fun starts next week.

  28. [Ministers/Committee Members will often take on the heat at estimates and will shield public servants from patently political posturing on the part of the Opposition.

    Ackerman probably did not notice any of this in the 11 years of the Howard/Costello Government but it was routine.]

    Agree

  29. [He also pointed to the scores of other emails that were released which apparently compeltely undercut everying Rudd and Swan have said so far. We all knew that, but none of you think it’s particularly important for some bizzare reason.]

    What a steaming pile of tosh

  30. If you want to reduce carbon emissions there is one way of doing it drastically…

    Shut down progressively all coal fired power stations and build nuclear power stations to replace them just think of how much we could reduce doing this…

  31. Glen
    I think it is an excellent idea. We would probably not have gone to war in Iraq for starters. That is enough reason for me.

  36. Patrick Fogarty

    In the sense of Government Ministers and Senators taking on the politically motivated line of questioning by Opposition Shadow Ministers and Senators, yes it was completely ordinary. It happens all the time, whoever is in Government.

  37. BTW: what about the chairman of Ford Credit being told by Grech that Grant was an accquantance of the PM?

    He said this at the hearing. You fools seem completely oblivious to it.

  38. Am I missing something? More likely than not, if the email exists, it’s a fake.

    But if the email is a fake, isn’t it’s author someone who knew that Grant had at least some support near the top of the government?

  39. [BTW: what about the chairman of Ford Credit being told by Grech that Grant was an accquantance of the PM?]

    Well, Grant is an acquaintance of the PM. If Grech said that, it was true, but it was silly thing for a public servant to say. But if he did say that, so what? *Did he do it on Rudd’s instructions, or with Rudd’s knowledge?* No, of course not. So it isn’t relevant to the issue of Rudd’s conduct.

  40. [isn’t it’s author someone who knew that Grant had at least some support near the top of the government]

    Wouldn’t take a genius – all the person would have had to do is read Rudd’s register of interests. Remember Rudd has never hid that he received the ute donation.

  41. PF it is impossible for the Rudd huggers on PB to see Rudd and Swan did anything improper…when there is clear evidence at least one of them mislead Parliament.

  42. My two cents worth: “The thread that runs through all of these is the attempt to remove Turnbull. This doesn’t seem to be about Rudd/Swann.”

    At this stage, here’s my conceited hypothesis. The pro-Howard forces don’t like the direction Turnbull is taking the party so they need to set Turnbull up for a fall. Now, knowing MT’s impetuosity, his disdain of Rudd and his drive to be PM they set a trap.

    Enter Utegate, Emailgate, Ruddgate…..whatever.

    So, methinks the plan is to get MT to explode over the half-truths planted using Godwin Grech and Steve Lewis. Have the half-truths/lies/concoctions/part-recollections exposed by Rudd/Auditor-General/AFP…whoever …. for what they are and cause MT to be embarrased/lose-face/be wounded/etc…

    Then they can install their preffered candidate – that is for someone else to ramble on about.

    Anyway, following are the pieces of my jigsaw that make up this conceited hypothesis.

    Liberal Hit List:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25422679-33435,00.html

    This is take-no-prisoner (KR & MT):

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/belles-of-the-ball-cant-find-nice-things-to-say-about-each-other-20090618-cly8.html

    Eric Abetz’s form:

    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s1172416.htm

    Eric Abetz is not on Turnbull’s side:

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/turnbull-puts-himself-in-the-middle/2009/01/22/1232471493827.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

    The use of Steve Lewis by Howard:

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/06/04/1086203624792.html

    Please note the seriousness of it – 2 years

    Impersonation of a public official:

    http://scaleplus.law.gov.au/comlaw/Legislation/ActCompilation1.nsf/framelodgmentattachments/A9072E82080A35E6CA2570F3008144D3

  43. [isn’t it’s author someone who knew that Grant had at least some support near the top of the government?]

    I’m not sure that is much of a secret, given that the ute Grant lent to Rudd has been on the pecuniary interest register for some time

  45. [But if he did say that, so what? *Did he do it on Rudd’s instructions, or with Rudd’s knowledge?* ]

    And did Ford Credit give Grant any special treatment? Nope.

    Did Ford Credit suffer because they didn’t give Grant any credit? Nope.

  46. [PF it is impossible for the Rudd huggers on PB to see Rudd and Swan did anything improper…when there is clear evidence at least one of them mislead Parliament.]

    About as clear as mud Glen. Keep the chin up old son 😉

  48. [Remember Rudd has never hid that he received the ute donation.]

    Bit of a random guess, don’t you think?

    Rogan raises an interesting point.

  50. [when there is clear evidence at least one of them mislead Parliament.]

    Glen, I thought the problem was that a dog ate the evidence Turnbull claimed to have. If Liberals have the evidence, produce the missing email.

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