Newspoll: 53-47

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since the election of the Rudd government, with Labor’s lead at 53-47 – its narrowest since the 52-48 election eve survey, and essentially the same as the actual 52.7-48.3 result. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 41 per cent, the equal worst result since Kevin Rudd became leader (the other occasion being October last year, shortly after Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership) and solidly below the 43.3 per cent election result. The Coalition primary vote is 40 per cent, the first time this figure has had a four in front of it since the election.

A somewhat different story from Essential Research, which for the second week in a row finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43. Also featured: perceptions of the government’s handling of the financial crisis (good), expectations of Australia’s economic performance over the coming year (mixed but somewhat optimistic), reaction to Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation (muted), whether the Greens should support the emissions trading scheme legislation (yes, sort of), whether unions should campaign for more industrial relations reforms (ditto), and whether the government is doing enough to support working people (lineball).

UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Explanations for Labor’s decline evidently can’t be laid at the feet of the Prime Minister, who has gained two points on approval (58 per cent) and dropped two on disapproval (31 per cent). Interestingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings have continued to rebound: his approval is up a handsome four points to 44 per cent while his disapproval is down three to 37 per cent, his best set of figures since early February. Preferred leader is basically unchanged with Rudd on 57 per cent and Turnbull on 25 per cent (up one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,568 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

Comments Page 1 of 72
1 2 72
  1. I remember that Howard would often go behind the ALP but then come back…

    It is strange to have one side stay ahead for so long as you say Adam…

    Trouble is you get a good poll but Malcolm has nothing to run with this week in Parliament to capitalise on the good numbers…

  2. like i said on the other thread, Talcum has actually learned to shut the hell up for a few minutes here and there – & its done wonders for his numbers!

  3. Further to the previous thread on my comments on the Four Corners show, I only read earlier comments that the privatisation had been done prior to Labor coming to power later. Therefore I retract that bit of y post 869.

    However the rest stands – WA Labor had years to get this issue fixed, and ample warning. The minister virtually admitted that she didn’t act because she didn’t think most people cared. In other words, she didn’t care unless it was a high profile interview. Another way of saying that is that she had no personal interest at all. She seemed more sorry for herself than the deceased.

  4. [Maybe this Ocker stuff has bitten lol!]

    I wonder which guru of the media will be the first to nominate that? Milne? “In a forthnight where we realised we didn’t really know just who the Prime Minister was…”

  5. Glen @1

    I think it will be a measure of Malcolm’s ability (or not) if he can find something credible to run with to “capitalise on the good numbers”.

    If the Libs are getting some breaks they need to make the most them. They must be having the best week since getting dumped into opposition! Poll numbers as good as they have ever been, and the most destabilizing influence on their party declaring he is no longer a factor.

  6. I have to make a post on Cossie exiting.

    1. Congratulations to Ruawake and Gary Bruce. You guys were right, I was wrrrng (incorrect). Gary, crowe tastes like sh!t.
    2. I am flabbergasted that anyone with even the slightest desire to become PM would not have a go and contest an election.
    3. Howard was right all along. Cossie did not have it in him.

  7. I’m a bit stunned by all the comments looking to allocate blame.

    Surely the real issue is how quicly and how visibly the State Libs will act to fix this

    For example: 100 transport vans at $2,000 per aircon unit. Cheque gets written tomorrow morning, 5 vans upgraded per week in some workshop somehwere

    are you out there Barnett??

    We need leadership and action on this issue tomorrow morning!!!! Fix this .

    The who/when discussions are for historians

  8. Why would the government have lost so much support in the last fortnight?
    Surely it’s not just because of Rudd’s “Ockerisms”?

  9. Mr Squiggle why are you stunned? I’m a bit stunned something that bad happened several years after the Broome incident and the minister and departmental head weren’t sacked within days. It isn’t history till the trials are over, and there should be a few.

    You are right about the urgency though. With the current spare capacity in the vehicle market it should be possible to fix this within weeks not months.

  10. [I’m a bit stunned by all the comments looking to allocate blame.

    Surely the real issue is how quicly and how visibly the State Libs will act to fix this

    For example: 100 transport vans at $2,000 per aircon unit. Cheque gets written tomorrow morning, 5 vans upgraded per week in some workshop somehwere

    are you out there Barnett??

    We need leadership and action on this issue tomorrow morning!!!! Fix this .

    The who/when discussions are for historians]

    The only response so far from the WA Libs is a possibility of an ex-gratia payment to the Family, and the possibility of GSL losing the contract when it comes up for review next year – oh and GSL promising to stop road transport with Air transfers IF the contract is renewed.

    [The Western Australian Attorney General has said he is reviewing the way prisoners are transported as the contract is up in 2011.

    But he says he has not ruled out the involvement of private companies.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598553.htm

  11. We won’t know if this is the “new order of things” or not for a couple of Newspolls yet. Usually a drop in PV like this can be sheeted home to a certain policy or event. I’m struggling to think of one that’s happened in the last two weeks that would see such a drop but there you go.

  12. Could the endless media bashing of Rudd and the government be starting to have an effect? It’s particularly bad on radio in Sydney where I live, wall to wall pro-Liberal propoganda.

  13. [50/50 if Tuckey and co departed]

    Glen: a few of the other old timers should follow Smirky’s example, Ruddock especially.

  14. I’d be interested to see some state by state breakdowns, N.S.W in particular might be dragging down Labor federally(WA too, for that matter).

  15. Those of you who read The Australian might like to report here tomorrow morning about how they report Gillard’s devastating attack on their lies about school funding in QT today.

    *Gone*

  16. Apparently Rudd is still a mile ahead of Turnbull as preferred PM, so I don’t think it is a “hate Rudd” thing.

  17. my post at #11,

    Apologies to my fellow bloggers – but this issue has really p1ssed me off

    I was in the back of a divvy van myself once (many years ago now) for probably 10mins, and do you know what the strongest smell was?

    my own sweat…it put me on my best behaviour for years after

  18. 53 is a horrible result for the Liberals. We are almost in a recession, and yet the Government has a swing to it compared to the last election.

  19. [53 is a horrible result for the Liberals. We are almost in a recession, and yet the Government has a swing to it compared to the last election.]
    Primary vote for Labor is lower than at the last election though. However with 40% PV the Libs can’t hope to win an election and your point still stands Shows.

  20. [my post at #11,

    Apologies to my fellow bloggers – but this issue has really p1ssed me off

    I was in the back of a divvy van myself once (many years ago now) for probably 10mins, and do you know what the strongest smell was?

    my own sweat…it put me on my best behaviour for years after]

    And as Margaret Quirk pointed out, convincing Cabinet for extra funding to improve prisoner transport was the stumbling block – can you imagine the outrage from the flog em and hamg em brigade when you say that you want to IMPROVE Prisoner Welfare when transporting them ? It is not a political vote winner.

    Also, I found that the actions of Laverton Police and the JP in this matter didn’t help either and that there is indeed a racial aspect when dealing with some prisoners, especially for relatively minor incidents.

  21. 53 is a landmark newspoll for the libs/nats.

    If you allow for a small amount of narrowing during a campaign, this newspoll is the first to show that the next election could reduce the ALP majority.

  22. I wouldn’t be too concerned about this poll. It still could be MOE. Even if not, Labor’s polls will improve with tax cuts on July 1 and the economy startign too improve. that being said, even when you are governign well, it doesn’t pay to look too smug.

  23. [If you allow for a small amount of narrowing during a campaign, this newspoll is the first to show that the next election could reduce the ALP majority.]
    There are only two problems with this theory. Firstly, the Libs PV has also gone backwards from the last election and secondly why would there necessarily be a narrowing toward the coalition and not the government?

  24. I would expect a narrowing regardless of who has the upper hand

    numbers in excess of 53% just don’t seem right at a federal level

  25. 30 Mr Squiggle – Oh and there was one more major problem with it. How does a Newspoll 18 months out from an election indicate anything about what will happen at that election?

  26. Frank C
    [can you imagine the outrage from the flog em and hamg em brigade when you say that you want to IMPROVE Prisoner Welfare when transporting them ? It is not a political vote winner.]

    And isn’t this a fine example to illustrate the role of government? Good government does not make every decision based on whether it is a ‘political vote winner’, on the way catering to the most ignorant and prejudiced elements in society. Proper governments do what is right, and are prepared to explain why it is right, ‘political vote winner’ or not. As we know here, the big parties these days have totally caved in to polls and the need to snatch every imaginable demographic from the other big party, regardless of how obviously putrid some groups’ world views may be. As a result we have, for example, unseemly ‘law and order’ auctions in the states election after election. No-one in the major party leaderships has the guts to say out loud that increasing penalties and the misery of prisoners helps nobody, and puts society more at risk.

    For this low pandering, because of nothing more than craven fear of the ignorant voter, to get to the stage where lives are not only put at grave risk, but are actually lost, as in WA in this instance, should not be acceptable to anyone. If anything should be the subject of a Royal Commission, that should.

  27. I agree JV.

    Put this another way: if this sort of incident had happened to an Iraqi prisoner under Bush what would we have said? You can’t have one standard for their side and another for yourselves.

  28. Socrates
    [You can’t have one standard for their side and another for yourselves.]
    Indeed. Also, the concept of privatising state facilities with a sensitive purpose to avoid blame is another emerging aspect of government behaviour these days too, and that is a most unsavoury element of this WA situation. We saw thaat in Iraq, wiht private groups doing the dirtier work to put up a barrier to government responsibility. The Howard government of course did it with detention centres. I’m sure there are many other examples locally. The NSW government is about to do it with the Sydney harbour ferries, because they can’t manage them properly, and have been getting flack for years over it. So much for the grand traditions of ministerial responsilibility.

  29. [The NSW government is about to do it with the Sydney harbour ferries, because they can’t manage them properly, and have been getting flack for years over it.]

    About to do with the prisons as well.

    I swear, they’re having the worst luck.

    The day before they announce a roll out of Tasers, someone in Queensland is kill and there is an inquiry into their overuse in an incident in Sydney.

    During their attempt to privatise electricity, evidence emerges that it hasn’t achieved it’s goals of increasing competition in the market in Queensland.

    During their attempt to privatise the prisons, another scandal emerges over pathetic treatment of prisoners by private contractors.

    One would think that these were more than coincidences. Poor policy even.

  30. [During their attempt to privatise the prisons, another scandal emerges over pathetic treatment of prisoners by private contractors.]

    And the Wa Libs haven’t ruled out not privatising the New Derby Prison and another proposed new Prision either.

  31. [Oz, privatisation is the only way to evade the strangulating grip of the unions in NSW.]

    But don’t you agree that you are displaying hypocricy in that last statement, while tut tutting the treatment of Mr Ward by blaming everyone BUT the Privatised operator ?

  32. [Frank, I never said the private company wasn’t at fault.]

    Bulldust, you went out of your way to blame Margaret Quirk and the Department and you downplayed the Private Operator’s role in this matter.

  33. GP, may I remind you of one such post ?

    [The mere fact of privatisation is not a suitable defence to the incompetence of Labor in managing these issues. The fact that it bought back the same vehicles from GSL/AIM, which it knew to be faulty and inappropriate for long haul transport, is a testament to that.]

  34. Frank, I worked for the Aboriginal Legal service for a couple of years in the mid 1970s, part of that time servicing the Laverton/Leonora area, based in Kalgoorlie. This was in the immediate post Skull Creek Royal Commission era, and relationships between the Police and Indigenous people and their advisors were at an all time low.

    It was hard.

    At that time I came across many good people trying to do their best to ameliorate conditions for the Wongi and Pitjinjara peoples of the area. Not least amongst those who cared and gave freely of themselves for the cause were many Liberal Party supporters and members such as Robert French, now High Court Chief Justice, Chris Ellison and Fred Cheney.

    I therefore don’t think having the compassion and motivation to help the disadvantaged and the oppressed is something that can be measured along party lines or is confined to any particular side of politics.

    I do think that there are people in this world who through ignorance, intolerance, prejudice and indifference, are capable of immeasurable cruelty.

    It was people of such mindset that I and many others from both sides of the ideological divide battled with. I like to think we all made some little difference at the time.

    Bad, stupid and unthinking people exist, and from time to time horrific incidents like the Ward occur, no matter how good or well intentioned those in leadership positions are.

    The reality is, our society in the main is unconcerned about the plight of most of these people and treat them with contempt and indifference. Politically, any Government which tries to help at best recieves no recognition, and at worst is criticised and derided.

    It’s everybody’s fault, mate. Trying to apportion blame is like throwing stones at a mirror.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 72
1 2 72