Newspoll: 53-47

The latest fortnightly Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since the election of the Rudd government, with Labor’s lead at 53-47 – its narrowest since the 52-48 election eve survey, and essentially the same as the actual 52.7-48.3 result. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 41 per cent, the equal worst result since Kevin Rudd became leader (the other occasion being October last year, shortly after Malcolm Turnbull assumed the Liberal leadership) and solidly below the 43.3 per cent election result. The Coalition primary vote is 40 per cent, the first time this figure has had a four in front of it since the election.

A somewhat different story from Essential Research, which for the second week in a row finds Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred, their lead now at 57-43. Also featured: perceptions of the government’s handling of the financial crisis (good), expectations of Australia’s economic performance over the coming year (mixed but somewhat optimistic), reaction to Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation (muted), whether the Greens should support the emissions trading scheme legislation (yes, sort of), whether unions should campaign for more industrial relations reforms (ditto), and whether the government is doing enough to support working people (lineball).

UPDATE: Newspoll graphic here. Explanations for Labor’s decline evidently can’t be laid at the feet of the Prime Minister, who has gained two points on approval (58 per cent) and dropped two on disapproval (31 per cent). Interestingly, Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings have continued to rebound: his approval is up a handsome four points to 44 per cent while his disapproval is down three to 37 per cent, his best set of figures since early February. Preferred leader is basically unchanged with Rudd on 57 per cent and Turnbull on 25 per cent (up one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,568 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. Now that the Iranian elections are all done and dusted, can we all stop with this pretence that the people “actually” running that country have any interest in democracy, have any interest in the rule of law, have any interest in the the people of Iran. It is entirely self Interest that these Mullah’s have manufactured this elections outcome. I’m sorry to say this but, Any Olive branch to this regime is completely futile, It is time we acknowledge the current regime in Iran is entirely Illegitimate. As such they can never have Nuclear capabilities. And as such all actual and suspected Nuclear facilities in Iran should be eliminated immediately. As I write this I hope the people of Iran will overthrow the Mullah’s although I have very little doubt …

  2. I remember that Howard would often go behind the ALP but then come back…

    I remember that a good poll for Howard was around the 53-47 mark. 🙂

  3. The latest fortnightly Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since the election of the Rudd government, with Labor’s lead at 53-47 – exactly where it was at the final Newspoll before the election, and essentially the same as the actual 52.7-48.3 election result.

    Umm William, Newspoll predicted 52-48 prior to the election…

  4. Regarding the 53-47 newspoll. I think that the constant hammering by Turnbull and the Libs of the $300B debt and that 18months ago there was a zero net debt, has had an effect of some voters on Labors ability to handle the economy, it only takes 2% to make such a difference. Even though Labor and the Libs know that the Libs would have had as big or nearly as big a debt because of the GFC, which the Libs refuse to acknowledge and some voters believe that there is no GFC as we are not suffering the effect and of coarse the Libs and their supporters do not tell the voters that we are not feeling the effects of the GFC is due to the Stimulus packages put in place by the Labor Government. The Libs, Labor their supporters and us here on PB know all this Kath and Kim do not or take little interest in every day politics. This shows up in the PPM numbers still favouring Rudd.
    However the 53-47 Newspoll is within the MOE and the Essential Research Poll showing a 57-43 to the ALP. Newspoll could be all noise or a rogue poll.

  5. Exactly when was this Newspoll’s ringing around done? Only on the weekend 13/14 June? Or was some done the previous week, before last week’s good news?

    Note the following on Oz Election Forums 06/06/09:

    url=http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?pid=65106#p65106

    Psephology:Not much going on around here.

    /url

    #2

    quote

    BTW, when is newspolling done? OH, whose tolerance of telephone home-invaders is even lower than mine, got a Newspoll phonecall last night & gave the caller the usual “Get lost”. Pity, given our political preferences.

    /quote

  7. It is very interesting to note that the person who labelled Kimbo as “no ticker” has now left politics with the label “no ticker” stuck firmly on him.

    Cossie, you no aint got no ticker and life is very just.

  8. Interesting that ABC Radio this morning isn’t saying too much about the Newspoll results, a little surprising, but there’s a state budget being handed down in NSW today, and the Iranian situation too.

  9. “He was treasurer in a government which left Australia better able to weather the financial storms of recent times than virtually any other nation in the world. That is something of which he and all other members of that government should be immensely proud.”

    Howie: “Peter, you are not the special one”. What about me.

  10. It is very interesting to note that the person who labelled Kimbo as “no ticker” has now left politics with the label “no ticker” stuck firmly on him.

    Cossie, you no aint got no ticker and life is very just.

    Finnegans, well said!
    BTW Our girl Hillary is doing a great job as Secretary Of State.

  13. Claims that Ahmadinejad came THIRD!! This one’s got life in it yet.

    Mr Mousavi’s cancellation of the protest came as sporadic disturbances continued around the Iranian capital, and reports circulated of leaked interior ministry statistics showing him as the clear victor in last Friday’s polls.

    The statistics, circulated on Iranian blogs and websites, claimed Mr Mousavi had won 19.1 million votes while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won only 5.7 million.

    The two other candidates, reformist Mehdi Karoubi and hardliner Mohsen Rezai, won 13.4 million and 3.7 million respectively. The authenticity of the leaked figures could not be confirmed.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/5540211/Iran-protest-cancelled-as-leaked-election-results-show-Mahmoud-Amadinejad-came-third.html

  14. Inquiries into the CPRS came reported yesterday.

    I haven’t read the economics committee one, but the select committee didn’t throw up anything unpredictable.

    Labour said it should be passed in its current form.

    The Coalition said it shouldn’t because of the economic context.

    The Greens want higher targets and less compensation to EITE industries.

    Xenophon wants higher targets, less complexity and for the Treasury to model other schemes and scenarios.

  20. Evan dont worry in the next couple of years our good friend Bibi may do just that 😀

    Of course that would piss off the ‘moderates’ and enrage the hardliners there but hey…

  21. Fielding’s not convinced.

    Well, when he’s getting conflicting information from different scientists it’s not surprising that he’s not convinced.

  27. Psephos – Nuclear or conventional?

    Diog, not content with your Tienanmen? Now you’re looking for your Hiroshima as well. Good for you.

  28. And if Iran really is the one and only enemy of Israel…then 100 nuclear weapons *half of what they may have* seems reasonable to completed f a country up 😀

    I am sure he’d have support from his tolerant and conciliatory Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman 😀

  29. Hello, where is everyone?

    Come on guys, it’s just one bad poll. There’s no need to hide. Let’s stop trying to bomb Iran and focus on the issue.

    For the first time in, what three years, the Coalition is within striking distance. Just because we think that, finally, Shanahan might say something that is factually correct, doesn’t mean we should stick our heads in the sand.

    What’s happened? was it the $300 billion debt? Turnbull’s prowess?

  31. Psephos,

    Can you point me to the pages in the Oz where they highlight Gillard’s bollocking of their claims of misspending money on schools?

  32. 53-47 is not striking distance. Howard’s best polls were 53-47.

    Even if the coalition get a few 50-50, 51-49, 52-48 polls, they’re still not a good chance of winning an election.

  33. Who cares, doesn’t matter who wins anyway, and Moussavi is not even that different to Ahmadinejad.

    If the people want Mousavi, then that’s who they should have.

  36. ShowsOn even if Mousavi wins it wouldnt matter a dime the Mullahs have all the real power in Iran…better to have Ahmadinejad because eventually Israel will say enough is enough and Obi wont be able to hold Bibi back 😀

  41. Seems Malcolm is way down the ‘trusted’ list

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25643619-29277,00.html

    PIONEERING burns surgeon Fiona Wood has again topped a poll of Australia’s most trusted people, while Victoria Cross recipient Mark Donaldson has made his debut in the list at number 2.

    The annual Australian Reader’s Digest Trust Survey asked 750 Australians to rate how much they trusted 100 well-known people on a scale of one to 10.

    The poll also asked them to rate professions, with ambulance officers topping the list for the sixth year in a row while footballers, sex workers, politicians and journalists all ranked among the least trusted.

    Dr Wood leads the list from Mark Donaldson, who in January became the first Australian soldier in 40 years to be awarded the Victoria Cross for acts of bravery in Afghanistan.

    Cancer researcher Professor Ian Frazer came in third, followed by environmental campaigner Ian Kiernan, former Test cricketer Glenn McGrath, actor Hugh Jackman, television vet Dr Harry Cooper, entrepreneur and adventurer Dick Smith, Denmark’s Princess Mary and children’s supergroup The Wiggles.

    At the other end of the trustworthiness scale, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd came in in 64th position, well ahead of Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull in 94th.

  42. everyone is avoiding the poll numbers today.

    LABOR IS AHEAD. LABOR HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD. LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE AHEAD.
    LABOR IS AHEAD. LABOR HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD. LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE AHEAD.
    LABOR IS AHEAD. LABOR HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD. LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE AHEAD.
    LABOR IS AHEAD. LABOR HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD. LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE AHEAD.
    LABOR IS AHEAD. LABOR HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD. LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE AHEAD.
    LABOR IS AHEAD. LABOR HAS ALWAYS BEEN AHEAD. LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE AHEAD.

  44. Dario, no one in particular .. but it just seems everyone is avoiding the poll numbers today.

    How so? I just posted a comment on them. What more are we supposed to say? The Government is DOOMED??? lol

  47. Its all OK. 53-47 still same (or better) as election result anyways. Lets wait for a few more before we start worrying.

    Always interesting that whenever a decent poll result comes out for the coalition, AM bring out the CEO of Newspoll for comment. No prizes for guessing if we will hear from him if the next result swing back to the ALP.

  48. But what is the point we all know that Morgan, AC Nielson and Essential Research are all biased towards the ALP so of course their numbers might get back up to 55-45 but if Newspoll continues to go down then ill be a happy man 😀

    Adam i wouldnt get worried just yet…

  49. Ok I get the point … we don’t talk in-depth about the polls anymore

    Given that most of the volume on here for the last week was a s**t fight between the ALP and Greens… probably not.

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