Labor’s two-party lead from Essential Research is up slightly following last week’s dive, from 55-45 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on the financial state of the companies respondents work for, future spending plans, confidence in the economy, “concern over job situation”, government regulation of the financial sector and whether an election will be justified if the “opposition refuses to pass” emissions tradding scheme legislation. Interestingly, the response to the latter question is 33 per cent yes and 37 per cent no, compared with 41 per cent and 29 per cent in April.
• The talk of the town this week is Section 44 (iii) of the Constitution, which provides that any person who is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Such designation could shortly apply to Bob Brown, who has been advised by Forestry Tasmania he faces bankruptcy proceedings if he does not come good on an order to pay $239,368 costs stemming from a failed bid to stop logging in Tasmania’s Wielangta forests. With offers of support flooding in from sources including Dick Smith, one suspects he’ll keep the wolf from the door. Ken Jeffreys of Forestry Tasmania describes Brown’s appeal as a “public holiday, slow-news-day media stunt”, while Bronwyn Bishop queries the Greens’ determination that the matter is Brown’s problem rather than theirs.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Craig Langdon, the state Labor member for Ivanhoe, faces a preselection challenge from by Labor Unity colleague Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. A text message from Langdon to local party members accuses Carbines of disregarding his offer to vacate the seat for him at the election after next. Landeryou blames the episoode on moves the prohibit political staffers from serving as councillors in the wake of the Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank Council, foreseeing further such action from “a tribe of angry, politically very well connected and shafted staffer-councillors who have been told to choose between their day jobs and their passion of politics and community service”.
• The ABC reports Scott Bacon, 32-year-old son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, is seeking preselection in Denison for next year’s state election. Bacon is an economist and adviser to Energy and Resources Minister David Llewellyn.
• Poll Bludger regular Oz has started a blog devoted to New South Wales state politics, which is the kind of thing we should have more of. Do visit.
[So clearly there isn’t a rampant problem of the “kath and kims” of Australia equating all Italians with criminal activity, as you attempted to assert earlier.]
Oh believe me there are.
No 1600
Gus, nowhere in my post did I racially vilify Lebanese people. Highlighting the plain fact of Lebanese gangs bashing Indians is not racism.
[Of the two major race-fuelled riots/sagas of the last few years (Cronulla and the Indian riots), people of Lebanese descent were involved.]
But in the Cronulla Riots there was far more focus on the actions of the Lebanese than the Australians.
No 1601
If there are kath and kim types, which I don’t doubt, they clearly have a negligible effect on the election process.
[If there are kath and kim types, which I don’t doubt, they clearly have a negligible effect on the election process.]
They have a HUGE impact in Marginal seats, like Lindsay which was who those vile flyers were aimed at.
then there are the Irish..well where do you start
*hides in a corner to watch what happens next*
No 1603
The race riots at Cronulla arose after Lebanese gang violence hit boiling point with the bashing of a lifesaver.
I do not and will never condone the terrible violence that occurred at the time, but the cause of the violence is pretty well-known.
No 1605
Frank, it was a terrible mistake by Mr Chijoff to do deliver those fake pamphlets. The people of Lindsay are not that stupid.
GP, despite our idealogical differences, and the pejorative comments which are somtimes exchanged here in jest and in anger, I respect your intellect and your position on this issue. I know you are not a racist.
But the comments you have made, up to, but not including your post 1595, create a contrary impression to those who have not followed your history on this blog to the same extent as we regulars.
This is a sensitive area and offence can be taken even when non is intended. The comments committed to posterity here, on such issues in any event, should be carefully measured and of crystal clarity to avoid being misinterpreted. Your post 1595 is such a post, and I thank you for it.
[The race riots at Cronulla arose after Lebanese gang violence hit boiling point with the bashing of a lifesaver. ]
Which if the police were allowed to invistigate properly without whipping up racially based hystera wouldn’t have had the result it did.
No 1610
The police had never taken ethnic gang violence seriously until the 2005 riots came to their calamitous end. Witness their hapless effort to contain the Redfern riots prior to that, for more evidence of the complete lack of an effective plan to circumvent it. Things have improved a little since then with riot squads etc, but there is much more work to be done.
No 1609
[Your post 1595 is such a post, and I thank you for it.]
No problem Fulvio. But I think you’re referring to my 1598. 1595 is your post.
[I know you are not a racist.]
Thank you. Racism is not something I would ever engage in. In fact, I think the word is so easily thrown about these days that it has lost all meaning. To anyone who has been on the receiving end of racism, however, they know what it is all about and it certainly not my intention to inflame any such feeling.
[I do not see how the High Court could in any way find the existence of territory senators unconstitutional when the constitution specifically says that there can be. It might be reasonable to declare a territory having more senators than a state but otherwise the constitution clearly allows the parliament free reign. The High Court even allowed them to be elected for a HoR term rather than a Senate term although this may have been the reason that calculating the HoR being twice the size of the Senate including the territory senators was ruled unconstitutional.]
Tom, I’m sorry but I’m going to take the legal thought of members of the High Court over that of yourself.
It’s certainly true that a majority in the first territory senators case saw it your way. By the time the second case came around there’d been a change in the composition of the bench which saw it in a different way (that s122 needed to be read in conjunction with s7 and in light of the original intention of what the Senate would be). The latter court, however, felt bound to follow its earlier decision at that time but indicated that the issues would be looked at again if there was an attempt to increase the numbers.
I agree that it’s most likely that a current court would support 3 senators for each territory, but looking at the earlier cases its impossible to rule out a successful challenge to it no matter what your personal opinion of the law is.
Fulvio Sammut #1595 -yes, how could i forgotten our Greek friends. Otherwise, it would not be complete. My apology.
[Diog, are they as bashful as us here? i seem to recall that:
* we bashed the Aborigines in the beginning
* then we bashed the Irish
* then the Chinese
* we kept on bashing the Aborigines
* we bashed the Italians]
* AND THE GREEKS of course
[* then the Yugoslaves
* we still kept on bashing the Aborigines
* then we bashed the Vietnamese
* after that the Lebanese
* then the Somalians and Iraqis
* dont forget the Aborigines
* and now the Indians
* Next??
Yes, we are a very bashful people.]
Gus, you done well and good, earning three yellow cards from Herr Wilhelm.
Some good and bad nerws on the environment and CC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/12/2597095.htm
The Chinese are putting massiv efforts into renewable energy, but they also expect the west to shoulder the burden, because they/we caused the problem.
I think this is where I worry that the economists have got the politics of CC and an ETS very wrong – they worry about the mechanics but forget we still have no agreement on what is a fair starting point.
[Goanna revived: National Times to launch on web – “The National Times brand was synonymous with intelligent and thought-provoking journalism,” Fairfax Media’s chief executive, Brian McCarthy, said. “It informed and encouraged debate on the important issues of the day and that will be the commitment of our new online site.
Jack Matthews, the head of Fairfax Digital, said the advertising-funded site would include interactive features such as blogging tools, forums and polls.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/goanna-revived-national-times-to-launch-on-web-20090612-c647.html
This is a good smart move. If good journos and contents are there, i would even suggest make it a paid site, i am happy to pay.
[it was a terrible mistake by Mr Chijoff to do deliver those fake pamphlets]
Some would say (I’m not taking aim at anyone here) the big mistake he made was to get caught. If those vile leaflets were deposited in letterboxes without the link to the sitting member known throughout the electorate (and the country) then I have no doubt there would have been a very, very small anti Labor shift in Lindsay. That sort of crap DOES have an effect – that’s why it is used. Some of these tactics are measured in inches not miles and that was what that “Chaser style stunt”* was designed to do.
* Thanks to A.Abbott MP
GP claims workchoices stole no ones future- it stole John Howard’s at least!!
[ GP claims workchoices stole no ones future- it stole John Howard’s at least!! ]
Thats very very good andrew 🙂
I like your work !
Whilst Chijoff is a fool and was rightly punished, he should not become a scapegoat for a culture in a party that thought this sort of thing was acceptable. There were other party official involved and this sort of stuff has been done before. The Libs should have a long hard look at themselves
Another flame war that I start and sleep through!
I made the comment before the swine flu got going that we are totally unprepared for a pandemic according to doctors I know in the field. Sadly, they were right. The system has already fallen over with the small numbers of not very sick patients already. If people were dying in any significant numbers, we would be in total chaos.
I should also point out that there are innumerable bureaucrats in Health (state and Federal) who are employed to ensure we would cope and we now find out that they were just sending each other memos and twiddling their thumbs in their offices. They are employed not to make us prepared but to give the appearance to superficial scrutiny that we are prepared.
[ANGRY GPs have slammed a “conspicuous lack of leadership” in Australia’s response to the swine flu crisis, with some patients waiting eight days for test results or receiving anti-viral drugs too late to limit the infection.]
Medical response in chaos in swine flu pandemic
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25628852-601,00.html
Dio, do you have independent knowledge of this, or are you just repeating what you read in the Murdoch Liberal Press?
Psephos
Independent knowledge in SA where we have had trivial numbers of cases. The pattern is the same in the Eastern states esp Vic but to a worse extent.
The response was fine before we had any cases or only a few as it didn’t involve many resources but as soon as large numbers of services were involved who had to work together it fell apart.
It’s not a Labor v Lib thing from my POV although the media will run with it as anti-Labor. It’s a perennial problem that bureaucrats are more concerned by making a problem seem to be fixed than actually fixing it.
Just as well it’s nothing serious then. Since everyone knows that swine flu is a myth, this is just an exercise in hysteria-management.
[Just as well it’s nothing serious then.]
Absolutely true. But if it was serious we’d be in deep excrement.
Sooner or later there’ll be another avian flu outbreak. The last one had a 70% fatality rate in Thailand.
Remember all the Tamiflu doses we spent tens of millions on? They’re only giving it out after testing has proven it’s swine flu. Tamiflu only works if given in the first 48 hours. If testing takes a few days, the Tamiflu is useless.
Psephos
We should look on the bright side and see this very mild flu pandemic as a trial run for a serious flu with significant mortality. There will be lots of lessons learnt. The real tragedy is not if this pandemic is mishandled but if the next deadly one is stuffed up.
Swine flu would then be a blessing in disguise. It highlights, yet again, why the Feds should take over Health and have a single well-developed policy for all Australia, rather than piece-meal policy on the run which we have in the states at the moment.
It would make more sense to infect all healthy adults under 65 with H1N1 and get it over with.
Not necessarily. Even with a 0.01% mortality rate, with say 10M healthy people affected that would still be 1,000 deaths. All those people would die on ICU and Adelaide couldn’t cope with 100 extra ICU patients. The health system would collapse.
[If people were dying in any significant numbers, we would be in total chaos.]
I was listening to the guy from Tourism Victoria (or similar name) today say that the whole pandemic management thing was overblown and an over-reaction to what has turned out to be a trivial disease. Of course he had an agenda: he’s running the Tourism Vistoria trade show in Melbourne, one of the epicentres of the virus. He’s had a lot of cancellations.
But it was his attitude that scared me. His stance revolved around his trade show, and demonstrated very little concern for the community at large. Extrapolating this to other organizational fields, the football committees want their games to go on, no matter what. This is despite the fact that the entire Broncos team was isolated because one of their players picked up the disease… in Victoria, at the State Of Origin game. Yet they were faced with a forfeit if they didn’t field a team for this weekend’s game. John Brumby was running the line that it was his state’s superb detection regime that only mde it look like Victoria was moe adversely affected than other states (I don’t think he’s still pursuing that, by the way).
It’s the conflict between money and community health that worries me. Where there’s money involved, the investors want their gig to go ahead no matter what. They’ll invent any excuse to minimise the seriousness of the situation to save dollars, bring tourism, or get a round of footy completed.
There’s also a lot of ignorance among people about just what the flu is. Many get a cold and you’ll hear them say, “Awww. I’ve got the flu.” They have a cold, not the flu. The flu is a potentially very serious illness. When I get the flu I go down like a bag of $hit, and don’t back back up again for three weeks as the disease courses through my system. I’m scared of the flu, and so are a lot of other people in otherwise apparent good health. At work, when I made representations to the OH&S rep about hand-washing stations and so on, I was ridiculed. This is depite the fact that hand-washing has been demonstrated to severely limit the spreading of all kinds of infectious diseases, including flu, and is absolute recommended practice by all health authorities around the country. The reason I was ridiculed? A staff member can’t sue the company when he or she gets the flu, so there was no point in spending the money. Dollars again, backed up by ignorance of the disease, methods of controlling it, and a naive belief in many that they get the flu every year, and they’re not dead yet, so why worry?
To get back to the quote above, I think things would be a lot different if people were dying of it. I think those footy games would be cancelled, hand-washing in the workplace would be mandatory, trade shows would be cancelled as all of this was done in Mexico. The thing about this disease is that it’s not virulent enough to force authorities to take drastic steps, thus (as I understand it) increasing the chance that one day it will mutate and become a killer. Introduce the Blame Game into it – political point-scoring – and that only compounds the problem.
BB
The “game” might change when we get our first swine flu death. Then it will be hysteria management as Adam says. About 1500 Aussies die each year of seasonal flu.
It’s all a question of how our society manages risk. How much do we accept and at what cost do we intervene? And who weights up the pros and cons? As you say, there are lots of people with different agendas who can’t be co-ordinated, even if we wanted to.
[The “game” might change when we get our first swine flu death. Then it will be hysteria management as Adam says. ]
Agree totally with that. The media will go for it for all it’s worth. I’m half-changing my mind on this. Perhaps a bit of a beat-up would be a good thing.
Diogs etal,
Here’s another article about the “Swine Flu”. The only thing it really adds to the discussion is the chart which shows the hysteria around this virus more than outstrips the real impact it has had.
I am heartily sick of these media driven circuses that are simply designed to frighten gullible people rather than provide information. Of course the media is not paid to be responsible, only to sell their content.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/just-saying-/
Obviously, the Iranians prefer his “made in China” daggy jacket, than Obama Chicago’s Hartmarx suite.
[Ahmadinejad set for Iran poll win – Iran’s electoral commission says votes counted so far in the presidential poll show that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been re-elected.]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8098305.stm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/22/obamas-suit-sends-hartmar_n_137032.html
Alternate headline: “Iranians miss last chance to avoid getting nuked.”
Influenza (normal seasonal ) is 7th on the list for the cause of all deaths. But it probably causes even more deaths than that – the cause of death is often recorded as something else e.g. pnuemonia.
If this releatively innocuous strain of ‘flu raises awareness about the danger of these viruses that is good.
If everyone with ‘flu symptoms stayed home for 72 hours – we could save hundreds of lives in Australia each year.
My understanding is that a high proportion of people who die of flu/pneumonia in developed countries like Australia are frail elderly in hositals and nursing homes, and that while flu/pneumonia is the technical cause of death, they are actually dying of old age. Most of these deaths would therefore occur anyway. Perhaps Dio can comment on this.
A hypothetical.
A person returns from Melbourne with ‘flu like symptoms – the area he resides in has no confirmed cases of swine flu.
It is a Monday morning – he calls his work saying he is sick – the boss says get in here now, if you don’t have a doctors certificate we will not pay you.
The person goes to work and infects many of the co-workers. One of them has chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, this person contracts swine ‘flu and dies.
Would the “boss” be liable for a breach of OH&S rules, could the company be sued for failing to provide a safe workplace?
[Would the “boss” be liable for a breach of OH&S rules, could the company be sued for failing to provide a safe workplace?]
No. Because it was the boss who died.
Phsepos
While the highest percentage of people who die from ‘flu/pnuemonia are above 85. Death can occur at any age.
If the criteria is you will die anyway, that applies to everyone. 😉
[the highest percentage of people who die from ‘flu/pnuemonia are above 85.]
As I thought.
[Death can occur at any age.]
I was aware of that.
[If the criteria is you will die anyway, that applies to everyone.]
Well no, not really. Dying of pneumonia at 90 is sad but may be considered the natural course of events. Dying of pneumonia at 30 is an unusual event which requires an explanation, and if it can be prevented it ought to be prevented.
The flu is a killer. My other half now has cardiomyopathy which Drs say is directly related to an awful bout of the flu years ago.
We didn’t realise that the flu was all that serious so we are now suffering the effects – a very shortened lifespan.
Take it seriously – he was not 60 at the time.
I’ve been getting a yearly flu shot now for over 5 years and it has turned out to be a very good investment. I recommend it.
It’s only protecting you against last year’s flu, not this year’s, which is a new strain.
Thats right – you get the strain from the previous northern winter, which is normally enough. If /when the swine flu vacinne is readily available, I’ll get that as well.
[It’s only protecting you against last year’s flu, not this year’s, which is a new strain.]
Not really true, it is a best guess based on the most common strains of ‘flu that occurred in the northern hemisphere ‘flu season.
These ‘flu strains are still going to affect people in our winter.
But in a few weeks when the “swine flu” vaccine is available it will be a headache for medical authorities. Who gets it?
[Thats right – you get the strain from the previous northern winter, which is normally enough]
3 strains I think
The cavalries are on their way and charging all the way to the banks. What about our cavalries?
[ZURICH – NOVARTIS AG expects a vaccine for the H1N1 virus, the source of the first flu pandemic for 40 years, to be available by the autumn after it produced the first batch for testing ahead of schedule.
Meanwhile, US company Baxter International Inc said it is in full-scale production of an A/H1N1 flu pandemic vaccine that could be ready for commercial use as early as next month.
The Baxter and Novartis vaccines were both developed using cell-based technology that could allow for much more rapid production and distribution than traditional vaccines produced using chicken eggs.
The Novartis vaccine will enter clinical trials next month, the Swiss drugmaker said on Friday, a day after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic and warned governments to prepare for a long battle against the virus.
Baxter said it had completed testing and evaluation of the virus and would submit its A/H1N1 vaccine for approval upon completion of initial manufacturing runs. ]
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/World/Story/STIStory_389877.html
[NOVARTIS AG expects a vaccine for the H1N1 virus, the source of the first flu pandemic for 40 years, to be available by the autumn]
Which is our spring, by which time it won’t be needed.