Essential Research: 56-44

Labor’s two-party lead from Essential Research is up slightly following last week’s dive, from 55-45 to 56-44. Also featured are questions on the financial state of the companies respondents work for, future spending plans, confidence in the economy, “concern over job situation”, government regulation of the financial sector and whether an election will be justified if the “opposition refuses to pass” emissions tradding scheme legislation. Interestingly, the response to the latter question is 33 per cent yes and 37 per cent no, compared with 41 per cent and 29 per cent in April.

• The talk of the town this week is Section 44 (iii) of the Constitution, which provides that any person who is an undischarged bankrupt or insolvent shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a Senator or a member of the House of Representatives. Such designation could shortly apply to Bob Brown, who has been advised by Forestry Tasmania he faces bankruptcy proceedings if he does not come good on an order to pay $239,368 costs stemming from a failed bid to stop logging in Tasmania’s Wielangta forests. With offers of support flooding in from sources including Dick Smith, one suspects he’ll keep the wolf from the door. Ken Jeffreys of Forestry Tasmania describes Brown’s appeal as a “public holiday, slow-news-day media stunt”, while Bronwyn Bishop queries the Greens’ determination that the matter is Brown’s problem rather than theirs.

Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Craig Langdon, the state Labor member for Ivanhoe, faces a preselection challenge from by Labor Unity colleague Anthony Carbines, Banyule councillor, chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike and son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines. A text message from Langdon to local party members accuses Carbines of disregarding his offer to vacate the seat for him at the election after next. Landeryou blames the episoode on moves the prohibit political staffers from serving as councillors in the wake of the Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank Council, foreseeing further such action from “a tribe of angry, politically very well connected and shafted staffer-councillors who have been told to choose between their day jobs and their passion of politics and community service”.

• The ABC reports Scott Bacon, 32-year-old son of the late former Premier Jim Bacon, is seeking preselection in Denison for next year’s state election. Bacon is an economist and adviser to Energy and Resources Minister David Llewellyn.

• Poll Bludger regular Oz has started a blog devoted to New South Wales state politics, which is the kind of thing we should have more of. Do visit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,752 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44”

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  1. [Well Finns….a very disappointing and uncalled for comment from you.]

    From the previous thread, #1286 – obviously you dont kow my politics. relax, i was just having a bit of fun at the paparazzi.

  2. [Bob Brown did last week if you recall.]

    Eh? Let me quote you:

    [It goes both ways – I will not sit idly by at let these so called bastions of political purity attack the ALP without complaint and exposing their complete and utter hypocricy in Bob Brown befgging for donations to save his political skin when he attacks Rudd for accepting a duly declared Ute.]

    You referred to someone on here. Not Bob Brown. Have you been caught out again trying to slander Green voters?

  3. [Does anyone know how these donations will be handled taxwise?]

    GG, i would think, somebody can “lend” the money to BB. So as a loan between two individuals. i am sure there is no law against that. The issue is more of a political one rather than taxation or legal.

  4. [You referred to someone on here. Not Bob Brown. Have you been caught out again trying to slander Green voters?]

    I seem to recall several Greens supporters defending Senator Brown for making those attacks.

  5. Finns

    I am on a Govt. benefit – DSP. I have to, by law, disclose any money I recieve from any source. If someone wants to give me a lazy few grand, it is deemed to be income.

    Surely politicians would be treated the same?

  6. Frank, may as well save your breath, Bob1234 has asked that over and over and has been answered over and over and been given that link by me BB GG and now your good self. If it ain’t what they want to hear they pretend it never happened. Talking about skipping posts, that annoying repetitive yapping I will do without 😉

  7. [I seem to recall several Greens supporters defending Senator Brown for making those attacks.]

    You’ve just shifted the goalposts.

  8. [You referred to someone on here. Not Bob Brown. Have you been caught out again trying to slander Green voters?]

    Hmm, A so called ALP supporter who always stands up to the Green Purists with monotonous regularity – so much for you being primarlily an ALP Supporter.

    So it is ok for Green Bludger ALP posters, but not the other way aroiund ?

  9. [So it is ok for Green Bludger ALP posters, but not the other way aroiund ?]

    I forgot to include the word Slander.

  10. [I am on a Govt. benefit – DSP. I have to, by law, disclose any money I recieve from any source. If someone wants to give me a lazy few grand, it is deemed to be income.

    Surely politicians would be treated the same?]

    I’m also on the DSP and yes that is the case.

  11. Finns,

    I understand that interpretation. However, it looks extremely dodgy to me that a politician with all his salary, lurks and perks can then use his Parliamentary position to beg for personal donations.

    No doubt he’ll be offering special tofu steak knives as an inducement.

    But I ask, “Is this what Parliament is for?”

  12. I’m Labor at heart but have become dissolutioned with Labor’s lack of social progressivism (they were always voted out over the economy, not social progressivism), and as such I vote for the viable social progressive third party of the day to remind Labor they can’t chase the right at the expense of the left.

    On particular issues, I sometimes support Labor over Green and vice versa.

    What I am not is someone that blindly follows a party and its policies. I am a free thinker. I am not a drone.

  13. [I understand that interpretation. However, it looks extremely dodgy to me that a politician with all his salary, lurks and perks can then use his Parliamentary position to beg for personal donations.]

    Exactly, and If I was a Tasmanian Elector, I’d also be asking the same questions. But of course Bob Brown is a special case – woe betide if it was a politican from one of the Major Parties who would be making the same request.

    [No doubt he’ll be offering special tofu steak knives as an inducement.]

    Careful, you’ll be snipped for mentioning the dreaded T word that our Green frikends despise.

  14. And why is it ok for Rudd to receive a free car but Brown can’t receive $240,000 from Dick Smith? Both are/would be declared and both are legal.

    And the difference in money is a moot point when the principle is being debated.

  15. phil of sydney (1384 previous thread),

    couldn’t agree more with you mate :). I’ve found after a few failed attempts that anything I say isn’t going to make the A type personalities on either side of this arguement go away. (i.e I don’t have the magic pill {actually the only one with the magic pill is William who will ban if he gets peeved enough}).

    my response of late has been to just gloss over individual posters pending the avatar (which is the first and best clue as to who it is). If my Plan A doesn’t work, i.e I’m annoyed enough I sit down to the keyboard to work up a reply to someone, I use Plan B which is to type it up, it makes me feel better and then I hit “delete” so the whole world doesn’t have to read it. Has been more than once, even today, where I’m bloody glad I did hit that delete button or I’d be in the doghouse of more than one person 😀

  16. Gee that 7% green vote needs to go up a bit if they are going to win all these Labor seats we keep being told about lol

  17. [I’m Labor at heart but have become dissolutioned with Labor’s lack of social progressivism (they were always voted out over the economy, not social progressivism), and as such I vote for the viable social progressive third party of the day to remind Labor they can’t chase the right at the expense of the left.]

    Labor is MORE socially progressive than the Libs in most cases, in deed it would be nice if they were more so – but you do realise that there is a political reality if they DID go in that direction that the Libs would be planting all sort of scary stories about Labor supporting left handed lesbian pedrverts recieveing Welfare, and the gulliable Kath & Kims would lap it up and what would be a small swing to the coalition would turin ito a landslide.

  18. From the latest Essential Report

    “Nearly two thirds (63%) of respondents said they expect the economy to start to improve within the next 18 months – 28% think that the
    Australian economy will start to improve this year and 35% think that Australia’s economy will start to improve next year.”

    I expect Turnbull & Hockey to be further dismayed at this. They are going to sink lower in the gutter and continue the personal attack on Rudd over ute-gate. They have a grubby Liberal tradition to maintain from the days of the Liberal smear campaign of PJK and his piggery.

  19. [Labor is MORE socially progressive than the Libs in most cases, in deed it would be nice if they were more so – but you do realise that there is a political reality if they DID go in that direction that the Libs would be planting all sort of scary stories about Labor supporting left handed lesbian pedrverts recieveing Welfare, and the gulliable Kath & Kims would lap it up and what would be a small swing to the coalition would turin ito a landslide.]

    Social progressivism and economic socialism are two very different things. And again, Labor has never been voted out for being too socially progressive. It’s always about the economy.

  20. [And why is it ok for Rudd to receive a free car but Brown can’t receive $240,000 from Dick Smith? Both are/would be declared and both are legal.]

    But once again you FAIL toy realise that Brown was being a Hypocrite in Criticising Rudd for doing the EXACT think that he is now asking for.

    Pure and Simple – but don’t let the facts get in the way of being a part time ALP Hack when it suits you.

  21. [But once again you FAIL toy realise that Brown was being a Hypocrite in Criticising Rudd for doing the EXACT think that he is now asking for.]

    I never defended Brown for his comments. The only comment I have made on it is the above.

    But don’t let that get in the way of your comments.

  22. I got a leaflet in the mail today from my local Lib MP telling me
    [Labor’s superfast broadband network:
    Don’t kid yourself that your included
    REVEALED, 2 million Australians miss out!]

  23. [I’m Labor at heart but have become dissolutioned with Labor’s lack of social progressivism]

    (I take it you mean disillusioned.) On what issues exactly do you think that Labor lacks social progressivism?

  24. [Gee that 7% green vote needs to go up a bit if they are going to win all these Labor seats we keep being told about lol]

    Or pray that the Liberal Party don’t stand any candidates in those seats 🙂

  25. [On what issues exactly do you think that Labor lacks social progressivism?]

    Rebecca and I listed a stack of issues and you were there reading it. I’m not going back to that debate.

  26. [Brown is criticising Rudd for the perceived personal gain in exchange for a perceived car dealership hoping to benefit from a government financing scheme.]

    And isn’t Brown going to get a personal gain from the money he’s asking for ?

  27. [What I am not is someone that blindly follows a party and its policies. I am a free thinker. I am not a drone.]
    You mean like a ‘dyed in the wool’ Green supporter?

  28. [You mean like a ‘dyed in the wool’ Green supporter?]

    Oh yes, the hypocrisy on that is breathtaking – it is ok to be a dyed in the Wool Greens supporter who supports the party no questions asked – but if it is a ALP supporter who does the same they are a hack and a Dalek.

  29. vera

    I just found out Alex Somlyay is alive – Just recieved an invoice for Labor Debt from his office. (Which is now in Fisher – Not Fairfax).

  30. [Bob, stop feeding the trolls. Take a break for an hour or so and they’ll run out of oxygen.]

    Do I hear Pots & Kettles in that last statement ?

  31. [And isn’t Brown going to get a personal gain from the money he’s asking for ?]

    Is Dick Smith going to get personal gain as a result of this?

    That is the allegation against Rudd with the car dealership.

    [You mean like a ‘dyed in the wool’ Green supporter?]

    I’d have voted Labor in Whitlam’s day, later I voted for the Democrats then Labor 2nd, now I vote Greens then Labor second.

    Who is dyed in the wool exactly?

  32. [who supports the party no questions asked ]

    I don’t support all of their statements. I think the Greens take the environment too far. When did I ever say I support the party no questions asked?

  33. [BB needs to explain who DS expects in return. What policies is BB selling ??]

    No doubt his Buy Australian Made Campaign amongst other things

  34. [BB needs to explain who DS expects in return. What policies is BB selling ??]

    We have allegations of the Labor government helping the dealership. We have no allegations of Brown helping Dick Smith.

    So why are you questioning Brown?

    Seems hypocritical to me.

  35. [We have allegations of the Labor government helping the dealership. ]

    Which were found to be baseless.

  36. [ BB needs to explain who DS expects in return. What policies is BB selling ??

    No doubt his Buy Australian Made Campaign amongst other things ]

    Who knows. All related documents need to be tabled if they have nothing to hide 🙂

  37. [No doubt his Buy Australian Made Campaign amongst other things]

    Where’s the allegation?

    Rudd’s allegations are well documented in news articles, which is a lot more than Bob Brown has.

    Hypocritical.

  38. rua
    I used to get all these flash glossy newsletters and leaflets from my MP when Howard was in govt, the leaflet I got today looked like it had been done on a home computer lol
    Amazing the difference when you haven’t got control of the nation’s pursestrings.

  39. [Which were found to be baseless.]

    I’m not saying they aren’t baseless, but the allegations are there, and to my knowledge they haven’t been found to be baseless. Is there a link you can provide for this?

  40. [So why are you questioning Brown?

    Seems hypocritical to me.]

    Why not – he is a politican and like those on ALL sides Questions have to be asked ? or is it that Bob Brown is exempt because of who he is ?

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