I won’t be available to take part in this evening’s fortnightly Newspoll festivities (nor this afternoon’s Essential Research, which Possum tends to be timelier with in any case), but here’s a thread on which you can keep each other informed of the news as it breaks, as well as doing the other things you usually do.
*no 248
scintilla not scintillia
GP – I’m so surprised you don’t like Rudd, so very surprised. Hold the presses.
Musrum @ 250
I get ticked off when I hear American religious nuts carrying on about lumps of cells they choose to call “unborn children”, so I’m certainly not going to start falling in love with people who may or may not be around in 100 years, depending on whether or not we have a thermonuclear war.
[Ugh. Nobody seriously thinks Australia can lead on climate change.]
I do.
No 254
You are obviously misguided.
pedant
Many of the changes will have happened in a major way in 40 years. Even if that’s not in your lifetime, it certainly will be in your children’s and they will look back very unfavourably and the generation that condemned most of the world’s population live in a permanent famine.
255,
[
Generic Person (Prime Obscenity of Australia)
Posted Monday, June 1, 2009 at 10:07 pm | Permalink
No 254
You are obviously misguided.
]
Someone who self identifies as “Prime Obscenity” is hardly a judge of who is or is not misguided 😀
Pedant @ 243
Perhaps, if the premise is correct.
The premise is not correct.
On the Air France plane, there is no hope for them as it would be out of fuel. It looks more like a storm/malfunction than terrorism which would be the worst result for everyone.
[A PASSENGER plane that is missing over the Atlantic Ocean sent a message reporting an electrical short-circuit after it had flown through a stormy area with strong turbulence, Air France says.]
That’s crap Dio I’m flying an A330 to Perth this June…
Diogenes @ 256
If I had children maybe I should take responsibility for their futures, but as (by choice) I don’t, your argument doesn’t apply to me.
[I get ticked off when I hear American religious nuts carrying on about lumps of cells they choose to call “unborn children”, so I’m certainly not going to start falling in love with people who may or may not be around in 100 years, depending on whether or not we have a thermonuclear war.]
Well how about you fall in love with your own humanity? Then recognise that it is a flame that passes from one generation to the next. And consider your own mortality: when all your days are yesterdays and all that remains of you, is what you have given.
Psephos
If Rudd really were 100% on Global Warming why:
(a) Did he fail to use Australia’s wealthy position to help lead in the international negotiations? To be exact, why did he stump up with 5%-15%? Was he hoping for the rest of the world to follow that example?
(b) Why won’t he cut a tougher deal with the Greens rather than a wishwashy one with the Blatherals?
(c) Where is the Leader, rather than the micro-Manager in Chief? Why has he cobbled together a below-the horizon ETS which shows not leadership but a pusilanimous deal with the chief pollutors and the coal unions?
[why should I, as a voter, care what happens to the world once I and all my family, friends and loved ones are dead – ie, in about 100 years]
It’s for the reason we resist tyranny like SerfChoices. It might not affect us personally here and now, but we know what it is likely to do later on, and we wouldn’t wish that on our worst enemies, let alone future generations of our own families.
Diogenes @ 259
Has anyone heard any more about the investigation into the case of the QANTAS A330 which unexpectedly went into a dive over the coast of Western Australia some months back?
From Le Figaro, the most reasonable hypothesis is that the Air France Airbus was hit by lightning according to François Brousse, directeur de la communication d’Air France.
Newspoll 55-45
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25572460-601,00.html
BTW, that’s down 1 from 56-44.
Preferred PM:
Rudd 57 down 1
Turnbull 24 steady
[If Rudd had chosen a more forceful Minister and expended more capital and provided more leadership on the CC issue, we would be in a better position.]
That would not change the numbers in the Senate. If by “more leadership” you mean higher targets, then the Greens might have come on board, but Turnbull and Fielding would not, so the bill would fail. The political reality is that this Senate will only pass a bill which Turnbull can support. So the choice is, this bill now, or no bill until late 2011 when the new Senate can pass one. Take your pick. (And even that assumes that Turnbull can get his troops in the Senate to vote for a Labor CPRS bill, which is far from certain. Macdonald, for example, would have to eat many thousands of words to vote for any CPRS.)
so basically same ol same ol, despite all the hoo har and carry on.
still the OZ will play it up for all its worth, despite it not being a stat different change
I think 55 is not bad in all the circs. Turnbull has had his “debt and doom” campaign and it’s gained him 1%.
Scarpat @ 266
Given the apparent french propensity for striking it would not surprise me if the pilots walked off the job.
Meanwhile…
[NORTHERN Territory MP Marion Scrymgour has accused her own party of “lying to” and “insulting” Aboriginal people, and has threatened to jeopardise Labor’s precarious hold on government.
Labor scraped through at the last election with a one-seat majority in the 25-member parliament.
She is now threatening to cross the floor over a controversial new policy announced last month.
The NT government wants to turn 20 communities into “economic hubs”, while denying additional funds to another 500 smaller outstations.
Ms Scrymgour has told the ABC’s 7.30 Report she is so upset the NT government has failed to consult on the new policy that she is prepared to move to the cross benches.
“I think that, at the moment, I’m not discounting anything,” she said tonight.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25572654-12377,00.html
Very tasteful remark, Boerwar.
Franklin’s framing is reasonable.
It is within the MOE.
The main point is really that Turbull’s tango with Political Death @ 24% preferred PM continues.
pedant
Then you still must have nieces, nephews, third-cousins twice removed etc etc who will be alive in 40 years. Somewhere your genes are wandering around in other people and will be passed on.
[The main point is really that Turbull’s tango with Political Death @ 24% preferred PM continues.]
It’s actually one of the best Preferred PM ratings for the Liberals since going in to opposition.
Agree, not tasteful, but funny
Business as usual
[KEVIN Rudd has defied ongoing Opposition pressure over his 2009-10 budget to retain a strong lead in the latest Newspoll.
The Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, found the Government ahead by 55 per cent to 45 per cent in two-party preferred terms – well ahead of its 2007 election victory result of 52.7 per cent to 47.3 per cent.
Labor’s support fell one percentage point from the Newspoll conducted two weeks earlier, while the Coalition gained a point.
The poll also found that 57 per cent of 1153 respondents named as Mr Rudd their preferred prime minister – down a single point from May 15-17.
Mr Turnbull scored 24 per cent in the preferred-prime-minister stakes – steady from the previous month.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25572460-601,00.html
55-45, the honeymoon is over. No doubt about it. Until the next poll of course…
No 271
Obviously the debt and deficit argument is troubling the government given how hysterical it has been in the parliament with respect to highlighting all the so-called “nation-building” projects.
Turnbull is getting some traction on the issue which is excellent, for a change.
If turnbull was getting traction he wouldn’t need to be spending his hard earned on adds
Psephos
No, I’m not equating “more leadership” with “higher targets”. There hasn’t been a lot of effort put into telling the public about climate change by the government. It’s importance has hardly been emphasised. If Rudd had’ve gotten the public more behind him, he would have had a better chance of forcing the other parties to follow him.
If Julia Gillard was the relevant Minister I really doubt we would be having this conversation.
All honeymoons end eventually. Some are followed by happy marriage, some by quickie divorce. The Rudd romance has settled into a happy marriage. The partners are not unaware of each other’s faults, but are not contemplating separation. The rival suitor waits in vain.
A comment on Newspoll before I quit for the night: while there are lots of scary economic stories around, and some worrying statistics, especially for business, it’s worth noting that if you are a wage and salary earner who hasn’t lost his or her job, things may not be too bad at the moment: your mortgage payments have gone down, prices have stabilised (or, in the case of petrol, have dropped dramatically), you may have just received a tax cut, and you may have received some nice handouts from the government in the last six months. From this perspective, you could be well pleased with life.
[There hasn’t been a lot of effort put into telling the public about climate change by the government. It’s importance has hardly been emphasised.]
What absolute tosh. For an intelligent man you say some very silly things sometimes.
Lateline says Fielding jetting off to the US to meet with their CC skeptics. What a shock.
[Obviously the debt and deficit argument is troubling the government]
Troubling them to a 10 point lead. Yes, it’s deeply concerning.
[Fielding jetting off to the US to meet with their CC skeptics]
Pity he wasn’t on flt 447
[Turnbull is getting some traction on the issue which is excellent, for a change.]
Really? Where?
[Lateline says Fielding jetting off to the US to meet with their CC skeptics. What a shock.]
What? Aren’t the Australian sceptics good enough for him?
It’s been clear for some time that Fielding will vote against any CPRS bill. That means that no bill which the Coalition opposes will pass. So it’s a Rudd-Turnbull compromise bill now, or no bill until 2011.
[Really? Where?]
G.P. means that going by the Galaxy, Essential Research, and NewsPoll released today, if an election was held last weekend Labor would only win 105 seats, compared to 120 if it was held a month ago.
In the Liberal party these days that counts as traction.
[If turnbull was getting traction he wouldn’t need to be spending his hard earned on ads]
Spot on Vera. It’s a dead giveaway.
I agree that the debt issue has gained some traction. But since Turnbull has *no alternative*, it hasn’t done him much good. People agree that $300bn in debt is scary, but they don’t see any alternative on offer.
[What? Aren’t the Australian sceptics good enough for him?]
Yeah, he could’ve stayed here and just red the opinion pages of The Australian.
[It’s been clear for some time that Fielding will vote against any CPRS bill. ]
Yep that has been obvious, considering the Government’s plan OVER compensates families, yet he has called for MORE compensation!
Bob1234
I can’t help sharing some of Marion’s anger. Here we go again.
‘economic hubs’ = ‘settlements’.
Settlements did not ‘work’ for a number of reasons, including:
(a) they forced together clans/language groups who were traditional enemies. This caused enormous social stress and strife.
(b) they forced together groups of people on land that was owned traditionally by just one of the groups. Said group then had disproportionate political and economic power over the other groups. This caused enormous social stress and strife.
(c) the settlements are generally located in those bits of the territory left over from the invasion – that is to say, the ‘uneconomic’ bits of the territory – basically sand, rocks and swamps.
(d) the settlements have never been funded adequately for the provision of basic levels of standard services. The backlog is enormous.
(e) apart from servicing themselves most of the economic hubs have no niche economic advantage. In fact the tryranny of distance means the reverse is true. The exception settlements are: those subsequently discovered to have been near mines; tourist attractions and those who can provide specialist services such as nature conservation services.
There are break-through options that would make a serious, long-term difference, but these would need some serious policy work by the NT and National Governments. The two decisions that would have the most long term effect would be (a) tax differential to overcome the tyranny of distance and (b) excising the economic hubs from Australia’s tariffs.
[In the Liberal party these days that counts as traction.]
It’s as much traction as they’re going to get this side of an election campaign.
Psephos
Cf the Pilots. You’re right. Tasteless. I withdraw the comment.
No 295
Fair point. But there will be alternatives by the time an election is called which is all that can be reasonably expected from oppositions.