I won’t be available to take part in this evening’s fortnightly Newspoll festivities (nor this afternoon’s Essential Research, which Possum tends to be timelier with in any case), but here’s a thread on which you can keep each other informed of the news as it breaks, as well as doing the other things you usually do.
He’ll probably vote against the CPRS and then come out and do a presser about how this has put the coal industry on notice.
Unfortunately for Turnbull and the Libs if any shift in the polls is due to the deficit then this is as good as it is going to get for them. You only get really scared of something once and after that you become accoustomed to it. Fear leaves.
I thank the Hon Member. The committee stands adjourned until 9am tomorrow.
*vacates the chair*
[So it’s a Rudd-Turnbull compromise bill now, or no bill until 2011.]
Would a Labor-Green ETS bill in 2011 be so bad? It’s not starting until 2011 anyway. Business would hate is because the targets would be larger with less compensation (presumably) but it would get there in the end.
The only real disaster would be if there was no ETS and the COALition won in 2011. 🙁
Is a conscience vote on a slightly stronger ETS even a remote possibility? Rudd did describe global warming as the number 1 ‘moral’ issue.
[It’s as much traction as they’re going to get this side of an election campaign.]
Hell, we agree.
[Fair point. But there will be alternatives by the time an election is called which is all that can be reasonably expected from oppositions.]
No, this is impossible. The Liberals are building a huge scare campaign based around debt, when it is impossible for there not to be debt at this stage of the economic cycle.
There is no way that the Liberals will go to the next election proposing say $50 billion worth of cuts to Government services in order to radically reduce debt, but that would be the logical policy for them to take considering they are telling everyone how bad debt is.
So basically they are putting themselves in an electoral straitjacket by making it impossible for them to propose spending money on something because it will create more debt.
Vera @ 282
It will be interesting to see if Mr Turnbull’s ads have any measurable positive effect for his party. I saw the first one last night, and my immediate reactions were (i) he doesn’t seem to be able to shake the hectoring tone which I suppose must appeal to some of his supporters, but which others may simply find a bit annoying; and (ii) the style was very much that of a last-week-of-an-election-campaign ad, and it seems to be thought in some circles that many voters actually dislike campaigns, and the ads which go with them.
[The only real disaster would be if there was no ETS and the COALition won in 2011. ]
That’s why I want it passed this year, because once it is in operation it would be politically impossible for the Liberals to go to an election saying they will change it.
$300B might be “scary” pre-GFC.
But post GFC where billions have lost their meaning. It ain’t so scary, especially if it is couched in term of 13.7% of your income. The punters are not that stupid.
Considering that we’re in an economic crisis AND the media are so blatantly pro-Liberal, Rudd and his government are doing well to be retaining a double figure poll lead.
If the COALition wins in 2010 we won’t have a green future but a brown one.
[But post GFC where billions have lost their meaning. It ain’t so scary, especially if it is couched in term of 13.7% of your income. The punters are not that stupid.]
The fact Turnbull keeps crapping on about $300 billion just demonstrates how big an economic dunce he is. Anyone interested in a serious debate on economics knows that debt per GDP is the only meaningful figure. But it just demonstrates how he is interested in running a scare campaign, instead of putting forth coherent policies to keep people in jobs.
I bet Labor regrets doing that preference deal with Family First in 2004.
My 12 year old on the Turnbull ad: “Yuck, can’t stand that guy. He sounds so up himself.”
pedant, I haven’t watched his add just saw a clip of it on last night’s news. The big MALCOLM TURNBULL taking up practically the whole screen at the start was enough, lol, I think he’s got the little man wanting to be a big swing dick man complex 😉
No 314
No doubt a response triggered by having a pro-Labor father repeating pro-Labor lines at every opportunity.
No 308
The scheme will require changes after Copenhagen anyway, as Turnbull correctly pointed out on Insiders.
Ch 10 news…….”Another sign the Rudd govt honeymoon is over with a 1% drop in their polling”
A Greens Labor ETS?
I can’t see how Labor would have a shred of credibility left if they completely reversed their policy.
Presumably, their current policy is what they’ll take to the next election. They’ve spent months defending it and everyone here agrees its the most responsible thing to do.
So for it to pass with Greens support after an election (presuming The Greens vote against this one) they’d have to rather drastically change the policy they just took to the next election. Unlikely.
There will be some proof in the pudding stuff to come and timing may well be the key.
Governments around the world have basically shot their stimulus bolts. They are testing, and at times exceeding, their credit worthiness. They are printing money like confetti. Their quivers are empty. The question that will decide Rudd’s fate is:
‘Once the current world-wide crop of stimulus packages have been soaked up, will there be an autonomous level of demand that will be big enough to get the economies growing again?’
If not, Rudd is a goner.
Sloppy Joe upped the 300bil to 1trillion in QT and swanny told him he was stupid.
Diogenes
[There hasn’t been a lot of effort put into telling the public about climate change by the government. It’s importance has hardly been emphasised.]
Psephos
[What absolute tosh. For an intelligent man you say some very silly things sometimes.]
Diogenes is correct on this. There has been abysmal leadership from Rudd and Wong. There has been no effort to reflect the urgency of the situation, to educate the ignorant; no big events focussing on the science; about the Treasury modelling they commissioned that shows how affordable stabilisation will be if we start now; how the impact on individuals will be minimal overall – with the targets met by 2050 etc etc.
A bit of Keatingesque speech-making and good old-fashioned political leadership is so clearly absent in this government on this issue. The political atmposphere and the polls have to be moved on this issue – and thereby, the parliament. The government has instead simply been poll-driven. The result is, for the paltry political prize of an easier election cycle, the government is prepared to jeopardise the future of the planet.
No leadership visible in that behaviour.
316
No, because I’m very careful not to indoctrinate my children. I answer questions if they ask them, but I try to answer them fully, explaining what the different points of view are on the issue and why people disagree. I’m really big on them being people who make up their own minds on issues.
Anyway, the spouse is anti Labor so there’s plenty of balance.
Fielding is apparently about to attend a forum organised by and featuring climate change denialists…
Looking hopeful.
318 – LOL. They really don’t understand do they?
[Ch 10 news…….”Another sign the Rudd govt honeymoon is over with a 1% drop in their polling”]
Ol’ faithful 😉
[The scheme will require changes after Copenhagen anyway, as Turnbull correctly pointed out on Insiders.]
No it won’t. Changes to the target and the cap can be made by the Minister. The Senate could disallow them, but that is extremely unlikely.
[Ch 10 news…….”Another sign the Rudd govt honeymoon is over with a 1% drop in their polling”]
LOL! I can’t believe a newsreader would be dumb enough to read that out. Don’t any of them go to school?
[So for it to pass with Greens support after an election (presuming The Greens vote against this one) they’d have to rather drastically change the policy they just took to the next election. Unlikely.]
No, as anyone who understands real politics knows, it’s very easy.
If the Greens hold the bop, Labor can say they wanted to keep their original policy but couldn’t get it through the Senate without Green support.
No brainer.
No 322
Rudd isn’t jeopardising the future of the planet given that Australia emits only 1.4% of the world’s emissions. Although, he is jeopardising Australian jobs if he doesn’t wait for the rest of the world to come to the table.
I bet the miserable Liberals are wishing they could send the taxpayer the bill for their ads like they did when they were in government.
[Business as usual]
Catch up Finns. Old news 🙂
No 327
The targets and cap are pretty central elements of the scheme ShowsOn. Without them, the scheme is useless. So Turnbull was right.
Vera @ 315
That’s a little unkind, but at the same time I’m not convinced about the wisdom of running an ad campaign featuring Mr Turnbull at the moment, when the pattern of the polls in the last six months provides at least some suggestion that the more people see of him, the less they like him.
That having been said, everyone knows that when a party starts trying to hide its leader, usually by starting to talk about what a strong “team” it has (or by trying to have a triumvirate leadership – like the Soviet Union in the 1960s, and the ALP during the 1980 election campaign), it might as well kiss its nether regions goodbye.
[My 12 year old on the Turnbull ad: “Yuck, can’t stand that guy. He sounds so up himself.”]
#316, i bet this 12 yo has got out of his nappy sooner than you did.
Combet on Lateline is an example of poor political leadership on the issue of climate change.
He’s denying that any coal mines will close. Unfortunately Combet, to cut emissions, they’ll have to. You might not have the guts to say it but you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
No 330
Cuppa, it’s ok, the ALP has spent millions on plaques for its pork barrelling schemes.
The Liberals spent BILLIONS on propaganda.
[No brainer.]
Sure, because everyone is a complete idiot.
[Ch 10 news…….”Another sign the Rudd govt honeymoon is over with a 1% drop in their polling”]
I think it’s like the Libs talking down the economy. The media are trying their hardest to talk Rudd out of office
And twice as much on plaques…
No 334
Ah, Finns, expert on nappies as usual. What are you wearing today? Huggies or Cloth? 😀
[The targets and cap are pretty central elements of the scheme ShowsOn. Without them, the scheme is useless. So Turnbull was right.]
They can be changed by a regulation by the Minister! They don’t need to be legislated.
There is absolutely no reason why the legislation can’t be passed before Copenhagen.
Turnbull just needs more time to avoid a backbench revolt. The future of the country is far more important than the internal machinations of the Liberal party, so the legislation should be passed.
[Cuppa, it’s ok, the ALP has spent millions on plaques for its pork barrelling schemes.]
Mesma spent $7.1M on her plaques
Yes, only the MSM could put an anti-Rudd spin on another disasterous poll for Malcopops & his band of climate change sceptics & economic dunces.
336
I believe Howard is currently having his portrait painted at taxpayers’ expense. If a plaque is a waste of time, surely this is too – we have plenty of photos of him.
I’m sure he’s also lining up to have his bronze sculpture done, too.
No 339
Vera, the king of talk down is Wayne Swan, lest we forget the inflation genie being out of the bottle.
#341, only when it’s on you
😎
Brisbane Times, 5 March 2009
[In its final year in office, the former government spent $254 million on campaigns]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/cash-splash-to-spruik-workchoices/2009/03/05/1235842567740.html
[Cuppa, it’s ok, the ALP has spent millions on plaques for its pork barrelling schemes.]
LOL -you didn’t see QT did you? The Libs can’t talk.