Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4

Reuters Poll Trend is back in business, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor’s two-party lead at 56.6-43.4, down from 57.3-42.7 previously.

Couple of legal matters to attend to:

• A legal challenge is proceeding against Labor’s 74-vote win in the seat of Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. The LNP cites incidents of double voting and a strong overall result for Labor on absent votes as evidence of fraud. I’ve got a hat waiting to be eaten if the challenge is upheld.

• Gary Clark, husband of the former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly, has been given the maximum fine of $1100 and ordered to pay more than $2000 in costs for his role in the distribution of fake pamphlets purporting to be from the “Islamic Australia Federation” in the week before the federal election. The ABC reports Magistrate Geoff Bradd aptly observing it was “difficult to think of a worst case of breaching the electoral act”, for which the penalties would seem to need strengthening.

• Note posts below on the latest state Newspoll results for Western Australia and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

423 comments on “Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4”

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  1. I’m gagged ShowsOn what can I do?

    Every time I feel like deviating from the one true path an electric impulse shoots through my electronic collar and my behaviour self-corrects.

    Its great to be living in Labor nirvana here in Sydney.

  3. [Ellis is a farting falstaff of a drunk. Labor’s equivalent of John Elliott but without the charm and sparkling wit.]
    Ellis’ books on politics are hilarious, a friend has the one that was pulped because it supposedly defamed Abbott & Costello.

    There was a hilarious piece in one featuring Tony Abbott as John Howard’s Jeeves. There was even a plot in one where he poisons Howard’s tea. 😀

  4. [I’m gagged ShowsOn what can I do? ]
    Avoid smearing people, or entire groups of people, without providing any evidence?

  5. [Gallop,gyngell didnt actually support johns m is my understanding]

    Given that he did cheat on his wife, I’m not sure how they could publicly ‘support’ him without looking like imbeciles

  6. mea culpa in advance if someone else has posted this. I’ve been off the computer all day and there are way too many blog posts to go back and check if this was already put up …..

    Gotta love it 😀

    [
    Turnbull told to stop pestering shoppers
    May 21, 2009 – 2:23PM

    Malcolm Turnbull has been told to stop pestering Perth shoppers with political questions.

    The opposition leader’s plan to press the flesh with shoppers at the city’s Karrinyup Shopping Centre was shut down today after centre management said he failed to seek permission.

    Shopping centre spokesman Andrew Wilkinson said it was policy for politicians to inform management of any visit, especially given that Mr Turnbull had invited the media to film his meet and greet.

    “They are fine to walk through the centre, but if the media are filming and the politicians are going up to shoppers asking questions, we just need to be advised of that and they need to have approval,” Mr Wilkinson told AAP.

    “That didn’t happen so we asked Malcolm and the entourage to refrain from interrupting our customers.

    “He was told he could enjoy a coffee or shop but if he could just refrain from asking customers political questions.”

    But a spokesman for Mr Turnbull said permission was sought and granted by the shopping centre before the visit and a “miscommunication” had occurred.

    AAP
    ]

  8. ESJ

    [I am independent like the Marlboro Man.]

    You do know that three Marlboro Men died from smoking their own product….

  10. [Given that he did cheat on his wife, I’m not sure how they could publicly ’support’ him without looking like imbeciles]

    why havent they mounted the arguments you are mounting?

  11. [why havent they mounted the arguments you are mounting?]

    Because they are subject to the ‘moral media’, and I am not

  15. [Yes ShowsOn your quite right please punish me now!]
    The whole point is to get you to regulate your behaviour on your own, hence the expensive electric shock collar.
    [No supposedly about it, Abbott, Costello and Tanya Costello received a defamation payout.]
    I don’t care what the court ruled, our defamation laws are a joke if those idiots can claim defamation from a book that shifts constantly between political critique, and political satire.

  16. Very droll Gusface

    The Marlboro Man was a campaign to make men start using filtered cigarettes which were considered a bit feminine. It obviously worked. I don’t know if they even sell unfiltered ciggies still.

  18. [The Marlboro Man was a campaign to make men start using filtered cigarettes which were considered a bit feminine. It obviously worked.]
    Why was it considered important to make mean smoke filtered cigarettes?

    Was it simply because they kill people slower, and / or make people less sick, so they will have the chance to buy and smoke more?

    If men wanted to smoke non-filtered cigarettes, why didn’t Marlboro just concentrate on selling them?

  19. [3 US Presidents died from being President too!]

    Hmmm. No wonder you didn’t follow the US election. Eight POTUS’ have died in office. You could get away with the 4 of natural causes as being unrelated to being POTUS but you’ll have a lot of trouble explaining the four who were assassinated. 😉

  21. [Poor ShowsOn you probably dont even see the irony in your 265.]
    You probably don’t even see the irony intended in my 265.

  23. Who did I forget Diogenes? McKinley, Lincoln, Kennedy? Otherwise the point is still correct.

    Any man can die at any time including a US president but only a president gets assassinated for being president.

  25. [The Marlboro Man was a campaign to make men start using filtered cigarettes which were considered a bit feminine.]

    The first malboro ad I saw was at a drive-in way way back
    The tag was “come to malboro country” with appropriate mood music (bit like the old VB ad music).
    I unfortunatley remember most of the other brands tags as well
    ;(

  26. I was impressed with wongs delivery and serenity ,she copped it on the cheek and but still kept smiling.

    I agree, she did a terrific, job.

    Ellis is a farting falstaff of a drunk. Labor’s equivalent of John Elliott but without the charm and sparkling wit.

    Umm, GG is a little sensitive, what didn’t you like, “Minister of not now”. The point that if the press was little bit more honest about war then perhaps there would be less of a tendency to support it. Or perhaps that using carbon to create an environment to increase plant growth is more likely to succeed than fanciful ideas of pumping it underground. His distaste for trial by media. What exactly didn’t you like.

  27. ESJ,

    As you may recall, ron had a fairly idiosyncratic writing style. Following a concerted effort by a few of the house bullies to run him off the reservation, ron withdrew a few months ago.

    Sadly missed by this amigo.

  28. [The tag was “come to malboro country” with appropriate mood music (bit like the old VB ad music).]
    Elmer Bernstein’s score for The Magnificent Seven?

  30. ESJ

    James Garfield.

    SO

    They marketed filtered cigs as the healthier option when people started to point out that a lot of their customers were dying.

  32. [They marketed filtered cigs as the healthier option when people started to point out that a lot of their customers were dying.]
    That’s really hilarious, did people honestly believe that a filter that still lets MOST of the smoke through would save them!?

    Are people THAT stupid?

    My vague recollection is that the companies said the filter caught the “tar”, were people dumb enough to think that that alone would save them?

    Don’t answer that question…

  33. fredn,

    If you like his humour, then own it. Your perogative.

    I only hope Wendy Machin had her handbag closed to protect against an incoming techniclour yawn.

  34. [Elmer Bernstein’s score for The Magnificent Seven]

    I think thats it, tho i read somewhere that it was slighly higher tempo for different ads/countries

    [Advertising – It Works!

    Well, sometimes…]

    I liked the catchiness of the catch- phrases

  35. [The first malboro ad I saw was at a drive-in way way back
    The tag was “come to malboro country” with appropriate mood music (bit like the old VB ad music).
    I unfortunatley remember most of the other brands tags as well]

    Catching up after being offline due to a power failure from 12.30pm til 9.20pm (Damn Storm.

    I’ve got got quite a few of those old Malborough RAdio Ads on CD, along with a lot of other bits of Perth Radio history from a well known weekend 6PR Presenter who William may be aware of due to his work as a Music Jornalist and I’ve got to say the audio imagry is quite spectacular.

    And for a video memory featuring a couple of Beatles.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRnC6rz7Z0c

  36. ShowsOn,

    One of my colleagues this week has gone on a “my bodies a temple” purge.
    No drugs, alchohol or fast food. The concession to smoking was to buy a bag of “roll yer owns” because this would slow down his intake.

    Cigarette addiction is the most pernicious one of the lot.

  39. 285, power was off in Ellenbrook too but I don’t know for how long. We had just entered the Morley Centro shopping centre when the first wave hit. Made the mad dash through the car park as fast as we could on foot to avoid getting wet. While still drizzling when we got home, the power was back on. Clearly had been out though as clocks needed to be reset.

  40. Diogs
    I commend the actions of the running-dog puppets of the US imperialist regime ( 😉 )for the general thrust of their green new deal, minor problems aside.

    GLEN
    I suspect you may be right about the upcoming German election. Nevertheless I still hold out hope for um, well, a repeat of last time I guess. The SPD-Greens couldn’t possibly get a majority but I think its still posible for the CDU/CSU-FDP to fall short of a majority. An SPD-Green-Left coalition is probably off the cards and I don’t think either the Greens or Left will go with the CDU. So the only plausible options are CDU/CSU-FDP or SPD-Greens-FDP or CDU-SPD but I think the first is far and away the most likely.
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,601451,00.html
    Click on the graph. You can moniter polling by different agencies, or averaged out or use the nifty ‘coalition calculator’.

    Adam, are you around? You know about German stuff. What’s your prediction for the German federal election, indirect presidential election, German section of the EU elections and for the EU elections in general?

  42. GG

    [Cigarette addiction is the most pernicious one of the lot.]

    I’ve met plenty of addicts to just about everything who say exactly that.

    ShowsOn

    I’ll list some of the ad campaign slogans the tobacco companies used in 1955 to get people to use filtered cigarettes.

    “just what the doctor ordered”
    “Double-Barreled Health Protection”
    and my favourite “your voice of wisdom says SMOKE KENT”, which was used for a filter which contained asbestos.

  43. [and my favourite “your voice of wisdom says SMOKE KENT”, which was used for a filter which contained asbestos.]

    aka the Micronite filter

  45. [and my favourite “your voice of wisdom says SMOKE KENT”, which was used for a filter which contained asbestos.]
    Unbelievable! Does anyone know when cigarette advertising was banned on Australian TV? I mean actual adverts, I know the ban on sports sponsorship took much longer (early 1990s?)

  46. [Unbelievable! Does anyone know when cigarette advertising was banned on Australian TV? I mean actual adverts, I know the ban on sports sponsorship took much longer (early 1990s?)]

    It was Septemember 1976

    [The move to a ban on tobacco advertising

    In 1973 the Whitlam government decided to phase out tobacco advertising. The change in government in 1975 meant the Fraser ministry faced a decision on whether to implement or delay the total ban. In a submission to Federal Cabinet, Health Minister Ralph Hunt outlined the medical evidence against smoking and its financial and health costs to the community.

    In an opposing Cabinet submission, Post and Telecommunications Minister Eric Robinson argued that the government needed more time to evaluate the issues and to hear from interested parties. Supported by the Department of Primary Industry and the Department of Industry and Commerce, he endorsed the tobacco, broadcasting and advertising industries.

    Despite Robinson’s arguments Cabinet determined to continue with the ban and it came into effect on 1 September 1976.]

    http://www.naa.gov.au/about-us/publications/fact-sheets/fs252.aspx

  47. Thanks Frank! Interesting to see the Fraser government adopted one of Whitlam’s ‘socialist’ policies. I was always lead to believe life was insufferable under that ‘regime’?

  48. But note that the suppoert wasn’t widespread in Cabinet.

    [In an opposing Cabinet submission, Post and Telecommunications Minister Eric Robinson argued that the government needed more time to evaluate the issues and to hear from interested parties. Supported by the Department of Primary Industry and the Department of Industry and Commerce, he endorsed the tobacco, broadcasting and advertising industries.]

  50. No 297

    Banning cigarette advertising is commonsense if the nation is picking up the tab for healthcare.

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