Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4

Reuters Poll Trend is back in business, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor’s two-party lead at 56.6-43.4, down from 57.3-42.7 previously.

Couple of legal matters to attend to:

• A legal challenge is proceeding against Labor’s 74-vote win in the seat of Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. The LNP cites incidents of double voting and a strong overall result for Labor on absent votes as evidence of fraud. I’ve got a hat waiting to be eaten if the challenge is upheld.

• Gary Clark, husband of the former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly, has been given the maximum fine of $1100 and ordered to pay more than $2000 in costs for his role in the distribution of fake pamphlets purporting to be from the “Islamic Australia Federation” in the week before the federal election. The ABC reports Magistrate Geoff Bradd aptly observing it was “difficult to think of a worst case of breaching the electoral act”, for which the penalties would seem to need strengthening.

• Note posts below on the latest state Newspoll results for Western Australia and South Australia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

423 comments on “Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4”

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  3. Hi Dio

    That 2% figure you mentioned for kiddie lovers for the general population should be around 0.02%. The 10% I mentioned for the clergy comes from inquiries in the USA and Canada, in Ireland it is most likely higher as one thier own states.

    [Bishop Pat Buckley said a conservative estimate was that one in 10 of the 5000 priests enjoyed regular sex with women. Studies had shown that 80 per cent of priests had broken their vows of celibacy, he said. Including practising homosexuals, Bishop Buckley said up to 40 per cent of the Catholic clergy in Ireland were sexually active.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/fury-as-catholic-abusers-escape-prosecution-20090521-bh82.html?page=-1

    80% broken celibacy vows, less 10% loving women, less 40% gay equals 30% loving kiddies.

    Wonky maths I know, but the inquiries in USA, Canada and Ireland all show endemic abuse, not the sort committed by 0.02% or even 2%.

    The issue isn’t the level it is that we don’t know as we do not want to know, without an inquiry we will end up with a situation like Windshuttle and the aborigines where people will deny the scale of an event simply because there are no extensive records of such events.

  4. As young Maria would say: “you’ve all done very well”. There’s still hope yet for you bludgers

    [World’s oldest blogger’ dies aged 97 – A SPANISH great-grandmother who billed herself as the “world’s oldest blogger” and who gained a global following on the internet, died today at the age of 97.

    Maria Amelia Lopez, who was introduced to the world of blogging by one of her grandchildren, used a mix of humour and nostalgia to recall life during the long dictatorship of Francisco Franco and give her take on modern life.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25520881-12377,00.html

  5. The problem isn’t priests themselves, it’s the unnatural circumstances they’re expected to live under.

    We know that homosexuality is rife in prisons amongst otherwise heterosexual men.

    Take a normal man, deny him sex, and he’ll become perverted, one way or another.

    It’s not a coincidence that it’s the Catholic church that has these problems (other churches do, due to the ‘give people power over others and they’ll exploit it’ effect, but nowhere to the same extent).

    If priests were allowed to marry – which St Paul recognised as a better option than burning in hell – very little of this abuse would occur.

  6. Have you noticed how quiet it gets on this blog when I’m not abusing Greens??

    (BTW that makes me sound like a spinach defiler…)

  7. Zoomster

    I thought you are actually quite nice to the greens, just pointing out some of their contradictions and spaciness is not abuse.

    i agre with what you said about the unnatural circumstances and priests, Islam and Judism do not appear to have the same problems, yet there are instances with Buddists priests similar to the catholic priests.

    Finns

    Good to see with the Gurkhas, thought I saw some stories on the Fuzzy Wuzzy angels asking for some type of recognition?

  8. [Have you noticed how quiet it gets on this blog when I’m not abusing Greens??

    (BTW that makes me sound like a spinach defiler…)]

    Now that is funny, especially in the context of the previous post. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Tom

  9. Perth is finally getting rain this week – Wednesday, Thursday and today. Rain has been so infrequent here that the younger of the two family dogs who has just turned two is scared of the rain when he sees it 😀

  10. castle

    Your figure of 0.2% of the population might be true of the “serial killer” type of paedophile who is predatory and abuses large numbers of children. But don’t forget that the vast majority of abused children are abused by their parents/step-parents/uncles etc. That’s where those huge numbers of 20% girls and 5% boys being abused comes from. I suspect a lot of those were “ephebophilia” which was the post-pubescent abuse.

    It’s a different type of abuse with a different type of psychopathology but it’s just as damaging being abused by your step-father as by your priest.

  11. zoonster,

    Have you noticed how articulate, helpful, and polite most of the Green supporters are here?

    I suspect that’s why The Greens goes from strength to strength.

    As opposed to rabid serial, anti-Green abusers here that perpetuate the image of bullies and crybabies and do there party a grave disservice.

  12. The internet really is fantastic! I just found this recent article in full for free “Prevalence and Incidence of Roman Catholic Clerical Sex Offenders” in a scientific journal which will tell us what the real story is. I haven’t read it yet (it’s 10 pages long) and I’ve got to go to work but I will later today.

    http://psychology.sju.edu/downloads/mcglone1.pdf

  13. marg

    [Have you noticed how articulate, helpful, and polite most of the Green supporters are here?]

    Apart from Oz, who fits that description, I think that generalisation leaves a lot to be desired.

  14. marg,

    “Have you noticed how articulate, helpful, and polite most of the Green supporters are here?”

    Self flattery is the food for fools.

  15. [We know that homosexuality is rife in prisons amongst otherwise heterosexual men.

    Take a normal man, deny him sex, and he’ll become perverted, one way or another.]

    This probably could’ve been worded in a slightly more sensitive way. Unless you are intending to imply homosexual men are abnormal and perverted.

  16. GG

    I’d describe you as “articulate, helpful, and polite”. Perhaps you are a closet Green. Sadly, I can’t think of a fruit or vegetable that is pink on the outside and green on the inside as this comment would have been a lot better then.

  18. Diogs,

    You’re firing with a spring in your pen today.

    Obviously, my helpful assistance for Mrs D has had the desired effect.

  20. Getting back to an issue from the other day, the OO’s front page Qld poll slump using the WTPW polling, did anyone post over there to express our disgust??? I’m hoping for another defensive editorial!!

  22. [the Opposition has argued that private health-insured patients should come second to uninsured patients for admission to public hospitals]

    This to me seems extraordinary. How exactly could this work? Wouldn’t it potentially force even more people out of private health insurance?

  24. [Wouldn’t it potentially force even more people out of private health insurance?]

    If reported correctly, yes it would. Private patients cherry pick between public and private hospitals all the time.

    Also, if such an idea was introduced, if you had major chest pain and wanted to be admitted urgently to a major teaching hospital (ie public), you would just deny that you had private insurance. What’s the triage sister going to do, run a search on all 45 health funds’ membership databases?

  25. [the Opposition has argued that private health-insured patients should come second to uninsured patients for admission to public hospitals]

    It’s also illegal. You can’t discriminate based on private health status in a public hospital. All patients with private health insurance can elect to be admitted as public patients.

    GG

    Your advice helped but the biggest help has been that Mrs D and zoomster have been in deep conversation about water policy which has reflected well on Diogenes and made her a lot more tolerant of my blogging. 😀

  26. If it’s illegal why would they bother suggesting it as policy? I don’t get it. Surely their hatred of the public health system couldn’t lead them to put out such a ridiculous proposal.

  27. NewsRadio played an interview with Harry Evans, the Clerk of the Senate. He is retiring in December, his job will be advertised this weekend for anyone with a very thorough understanding of the Senate standing orders.

  28. ltep

    I suppose they could change the Health Act. They’re missing the point though. Lots of people with private health insurance elect to be admitted as public patients as they think they will save money. If they were guaranteed not to be out of pocket and so chose to be admitted as private, all these public hospitals would get paid by the health funds. About 5% of patients in a public hospital have private health insurance but aren’t using it. It might not sound like much but an extra 5% funding to public hospitals would make a lot of difference.

  29. post scripts to the MT public relations mess yesterday at Karrinyup Shopping Centre here in Perth (from The West todays edition p.2)

    1. They describe him as “future former Opposition Leader” 😀
    2. Colin Barnett was supposed to be walking the shopping Centre with him BUT was stuck in Geraldton because of the massive storms yesterday and stuck there with none other than Kevin Rudd (at the same activity).

    Massive PR disaster all the way around for Turnbull yesterday 😀

  30. [Lots of people with private health insurance elect to be admitted as public patients as they think they will save money. If they were guaranteed not to be out of pocket and so chose to be admitted as private, all these public hospitals would get paid by the health funds]
    Why can’t this simply be explained to the patents when they are admitted? I guess in the long run, if they stay as a private patient, this will push up premiums, because it means the private health insurance company and industry more broadly will be making more pay outs.

    If it works out cheaper, the government should pay the patient’s gap if that is what it takes to convince them to stay as a private patient.

  31. Tipping:

    JG one out for the Bulldogs against Geelong
    JG one out for Fremantle against North
    KR one out for Adelaide
    Labor both for Collingwood, Liberal both for West Coast
    JG one out for Richmond
    All in for Sydney
    Labor both for Brisbane, Liberal both for St. Kilda
    All in for Hawthorn

  32. [Massive PR disaster all the way around for Turnbull yesterday ]
    Yeah, did you luck how he tried to blame it on the people from the media filming him?

    Of course he didn’t reveal that it was te job of his staff to get permissions for the media contingent so they could film before hand.

  33. [Wilson Tuckey has flagged trouble at next week’s Coalition partyrooni meeting by branding the shadow cabinet arrogant for agreeing to pass most of the budget without consulting the back bench. Mr Tuckey vented his feelings in an entail sent yesterday to the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, and which he also copied to all fellow Coalition MPs and senators.]

    Why send it to Joe Hockey and not Malcolm Turnbull?

  34. [Wilson Tuckey has flagged trouble at next week’s Coalition partyrooni meeting by branding the shadow cabinet arrogant for agreeing to pass most of the budget without consulting the back bench.]

    I imagine the Shadow Cabinet pays as much attention to Tuckey as the rest of us pay to him.

  35. [Mr Tuckey vented his feelings in an entail (email, entrail?) sent yesterday ]

    I am impressed that Tuckey uses email. Wasn’t it Heifernan that bragged about being computer illiterate?

  39. The problem with private health insurance is that it is a completely dud product. The worst of all insurance products.

    The former government should never have promised billions is subsidies without getting them to improve the product.

    It doesnt cover you for private outpatient appointments, and you always have to pay extra fees for private inpatient stays, including tests, specialists, gap payments etc. The system needs review.

  40. I don’t know if it has already been mentioned, but Tony Abbott maintained his 100% success rate last night in never winning a debate against a female. They were talking about spin, and Penny Wong goes, you cut peoples salaries and conditions and you call it workchoices. Poor Tony, he had to take the 10 count.

  41. My old bloke has had a great run with public hospitals – absolutely nothing wrong until cancer got him in his 60s.

    A friend and I raced him to Emergency one day and she said told us not to tell them we had private health insurance, but when the Hosp. asked me I couldn’t do it.

    Our local private hospital leaves a lot to be desired so we choose for him to go the public hospital as a private patient if they have a bed available.

    We can’t fault the mob there – they are fantastic. Haven’t had to pay much extra.

    I hate all the extras our health fund provides tho – gyms, etc. I’d rather lower premiums.

  42. Juliem – your mob had better win this week cos I’m the only one in our family tipping thingo who has picked them. Go the Roos.

  43. Speaking of priests, of course they should be allowed to get married. Last week I backed the Dragons against the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs scored right on fulltime so they went to the video referree.

    I thought I was gone. As I have never had any luck with conventional prayer, I decided to say a Mary Magdelan instead. When you get to Holy Mary, mother of god, you replace it with Holy Mary, wife of Jesus. It worked like a beauty 😀

  44. The mineral council says the Govt’s ETS will cost 23.000 jobs accross the mining mining sector by 2010.
    How can this be so? If it ever gets through the Senate it isn’t due to start until 2011 is it?

  45. So that’s what I have to do when the Swannies are losing, Centre. Does it work if you’re not a Catholic.

    Have always thought Priests should be allowed to marry. If not they should be allowed to have gay relationships within or out of the priesthood. It doesn’t seem right to be barred from either sexual preference unless you are by, an act of birth, asexual.

  46. Typical Mitch whateverisnameis – the man looks decidely evil to me. Reminds me of Lurch.

    I thought that Garnaut had researched the loss of jobs in mining thoroughly . Wouldn’t the renewable/alternative energy jobs pick up a lot of that flack. They would certainly be cleaner than the coal industry.

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